Near-future quarterly financial projections

[Spacemanspliff]

-3710 in-transit from Q1 delivered in April
-5 ships at an avg of 3k a ship model 3’s
-2k S&X delivered so far in April and May
-Compare May and April sales of S/X in 2018 to 2019 and roughly gauge orders for June with a little extra because of new model bump so 2500-2750k

Gets you right in the sweet spot of 22-23k

 

[Spacemanspliff]

Why 22k Europe ? With only 5 ships (vs 8 or 7 in Q1) + some 3k left over from Q1, looks lower to me. Also, only 8.5k delivered in Apr/May.

The average for EU bound ships is 2941.

23532/8= 2941 so round to 3k model 3’s a ship.

Of the 5 ships for April/May only one has presumably fully unloaded, the second docked the last week of the May, and then the other 3 all arrive in June.

 

[EVNow]

-3710 in-transit from Q1 delivered in April
-5 ships at an avg of 3k a ship model 3’s
-2k S&X delivered so far in April and May
-Compare May and April sales of S/X in 2018 to 2019 and roughly gauge orders for June with a little extra because of new model bump so 2500-2750k

Gets you right in the sweet spot of 22-23k

Ships have both 3 and S+X. So, 5 ships = 15k total cars + 3700 in transit = 18,700. So, ~20k.

 

[Spacemanspliff]

Ships have both 3 and S+X. So, 5 ships = 15k total cars + 3700 in transit = 18,700. So, ~20k.

The 23,532 number is purely model 3’s delivered from the Q1 boats. You can’t judge S/X per boat, you just look at registrations it’s more accurate.

23,532/8= 2941 model 3’s per EU carrier in Q1

-3710 model 3’s in-transit delivered April
-2941 model 3 average per ship in Q1 x5 ships
-2000 S/X delivered in April/May
= 20,710 so far

Then you make an educated guess on combined S/X June deliveries to the EU, my guess is 2,500

Brings us to 23k+

The May model 3 delivery count also gives us a rough back check that our model 3 count per boat is good.
Model 3 deliveries in May= 2800

1st boat in Q2 docked on May 8th, it took 2.52 days to load compared to the average of 3.07. 2.52/3.07= .822

.822* 2941 gets us 2410. Plus we had a second boat dock with 9 days left in the quarter where it’s safe to assume that’s where the left over 400 came from.

* I actually believe per boat avg in Q2 is slightly larger more like 3,146 model 3’s per boat due to average loading times but that’s just a guess.

 

[EVNow]

The 23,532 number is purely model 3’s delivered from the Q1 boats. You can’t judge S/X per boat, you just look at registrations it’s more accurate

Where are you getting this number ?

From the EU registration tracker I get 23k total.

 

[anon]

I actually believe per boat avg in Q2 is slightly larger more like 3,146 model 3’s per boat due to average loading times but that’s just a guess.

Remember that Tesla built up a large inventory of S/X by the end of Q1, so they may not have put many S/X on boats then, or at least not as many as after the Raven release, so larger loading times could be due to S/X. It may even be possible that per boat avg in Q2 is lower if additional S/X took up some of the loading time.

 

[EVNow]

The 23,532 number is purely model 3’s delivered from the Q1 boats.

One more data point for this question.

Where are you getting this number ?

From the EU registration tracker I get 23k total.

This says 19,592 Model 3s in Q1.

EV Sales: Europe

 

[Spacemanspliff]

Where are you getting this number ?

From the EU registration tracker I get 23k total.

Im assuming you are using just total Teslas registered in Q1 22999, which doesn’t include every Model 3 shipped in Q1.

You have to use the model 3 registration tracker and include model 3s delivered in April which were from Q1 boats. 3 Q1 boats docked at the end of March, no Q2 boat docked till May.

19829+3708= 23532

 

[Spacemanspliff]

Remember that Tesla built up a large inventory of S/X by the end of Q1, so they may not have put many S/X on boats then, or at least not as many as after the Raven release, so larger loading times could be due to S/X. It may even be possible that per boat avg in Q2 is lower if additional S/X took up some of the loading time.

Which could be as well, it’s impossible to know for sure, this is just a rough educated guess based on past trends.

 

[Doggydogworld]

This says 19,592 Model 3s in Q1.
EV Sales: Europe

Your link shows 3710 Model 3s delivered in April. No boats arrived in April, therefore these 3710 were also on the Q1 boats. (Same is true for some Model 3s delivered in early May, before the first Q2 boat arrived).

@Spacemanspliff assumes all Model 3s that arrive on Q2 boats will be Q2 deliveries, though. I figure ~2000 of those will spill into July (vs. almost 4000 that spilled over from Q1). Based on loading times, though, I have 16k Model 3s on Q2 boats. So for Model 3:

4k April/early May from Q1 boats
16k on Q2 boats
-2k failed late June deliveries
------
18k Q2 deliveries

Add to this your best Q2 S/X guess. Almost 2k in April/May plus 2k in June gives Q2 of 4k S/X + 18k 3s = 22k total deliveries. YMMV.

Pre-Raven S/X inventory is still a mystery to me. It stood at 13.7k on 3/31 (includes demos, loaners, etc.). They built another few thousand in early April before switching to Raven. That's 16k+ pre-Ravens they need to move. The 2k Euro sales in April/May are all pre-Raven, but the 4275 US sales is a mix. Call it 3k pre-Raven. China looks <1k (360 in April according to JL Warren data given in this Seeking Alpha article). That's 6k of the ~16k+, leaving 10k to sell in June or at even greater discounts in Q3.

If they blow 80-90% of those 10k pre-Ravens out in June plus deliver 80-90% of the ~10k Ravens built in Q2 (some of which are on boats), that'd be 23k S/X deliveries this quarter. It'd also boost Euro sales above my estimates. And much lower Finished Goods Inventory would boost 6/30 cash on hand. A nice scenario all around.

But where are those 10k pre-Ravens today? The inventory trackers only show about 1k. They've never shown anything close to 15k, though, even when P&D reports and balance sheet indicated such. Those cars aren't all at stores and the death cult stalkers never found huge parking lots full of S/X. Maybe most of them were in China? That doesn't really make sense to me, but if true it means my June blowout sale scenario is unlikely.

 

[Spacemanspliff]

Your link shows 3710 Model 3s delivered in April. No boats arrived in April, therefore these 3710 were also on the Q1 boats. (Same is true for some Model 3s delivered in early May, before the first Q2 boat arrived).

@Spacemanspliff assumes all Model 3s that arrive on Q2 boats will be Q2 deliveries, though. I figure ~2000 of those will spill into July (vs. almost 4000 that spilled over from Q1). Based on loading times, though, I have 16k Model 3s on Q2 boats. So for Model 3:

4k April/early May from Q1 boats
16k on Q2 boats
-2k failed late June deliveries
------
18k Q2 deliveries

Add to this your best Q2 S/X guess. Almost 2k in April/May plus 2k in June gives Q2 of 4k S/X + 18k 3s = 22k total deliveries. YMMV.

My original estimate was 22K the high end was 23k.

*misread your original post, edited out my original comment* see my post above I agree with you it’s probably closer to 3145 per boat based on loading times but I rounded down to 3k, gives me about 1k of float.

And yea I estimate they do deliver close to everything (say 1k in transit), some key differences compared to last time:

-They’ve left a couple days sooner
-Ships are spaced out more
-The Grand Mark (the last ship) is also rumored to be carrying RHD’s so it could make a short stop at Zeebrugge and then jump to the U.K. to split the last boat load between two delivery/logistics teams.

So they’ll do their regular end of quarter gymnastics but with less cars and more days.


Moral of the story is 22k seems to be the sweet spot that me and @Doggydogworld agree on for the most part.

 

[Spacemanspliff]

Add to this your best Q2 S/X guess. Almost 2k in April/May

Small side note the registration tracker updated from the 1800 or whatever it was prior to now having delivered 2037 for S/X in April/May

My high end estimate (23k) only really disagrees with you on two things:
-I think they deliver 2500 S/X in Q2 (new model bump)
-roughly 1200 in transit of 3/S/X vs your 2k

 

[EVNow]

Pre-Raven S/X inventory is still a mystery to me. It stood at 13.7k on 3/31 (includes demos, loaners, etc.). They built another few thousand in early April before switching to Raven. That's 16k+ pre-Ravens they need to move. The 2k Euro sales in April/May are all pre-Raven, but the 4275 US sales is a mix. Call it 3k pre-Raven. China looks <1k (360 in April according to JL Warren data given in this Seeking Alpha article). That's 6k of the ~16k+, leaving 10k to sell in June or at even greater discounts in Q3.

Ok - I get our point now.

May be a large number of S/X are demos/loaners/floor models and never came to CPO site. They just got sold off in the local stores for big discounts or they are just going to keep them as loaners/demo and slowly liquidate the inventory as Raven cars replace them after those are being produced in good volume. If there are 250 stores and about 10 per store, we get about 2,500. That still leaves quite a few.

I find it difficult to believe if they have that many S/X to sell, they wouldn't list them.

The other option is Insidevs has got the S/X sales numbers wrong in Apr/May. Because of discounting they have been selling well - and if some of the S/X are older VIns, those may not get counted by Insidevs if they are using VIN method instead of estimating using registrations.

 

[Spacemanspliff]

The possible high of 8k for China is out the window now with that last China shipment.

Solidly 7k for China Q2.

 

[neroden]

Ok - I get our point now.

May be a large number of S/X are demos/loaners/floor models and never came to CPO site. They just got sold off in the local stores for big discounts or they are just going to keep them as loaners/demo and slowly liquidate the inventory as Raven cars replace them after those are being produced in good volume. If there are 250 stores and about 10 per store, we get about 2,500. That still leaves quite a few.

I find it difficult to believe if they have that many S/X to sell, they wouldn't list them.

The other option is Insidevs has got the S/X sales numbers wrong in Apr/May.

I would bet on it.

Because of discounting they have been selling well - and if some of the S/X are older VIns, those may not get counted by Insidevs if they are using VIN method instead of estimating using registrations.

 

[mongo]

The possible high of 8k for China is out the window now with that last China shipment.

Solidly 7k for China Q2.

I assume you are talking deliveries.
What overhang from Q1 are you estimating?

 

[EVNow]

My high end estimate (23k) only really disagrees with you on two things:
-I think they deliver 2500 S/X in Q2 (new model bump)
-roughly 1200 in transit of 3/S/X vs your 2k

You mean 2500 S/X in June ?

I think the transit numbers will be lower. Because the deliveries are more spread out this time - and more importantly they don't have any beginner hiccup like they did in Q1, they should be able to deliver almost all the ordered cars that landed in the first 5 ships. The last ship lands on June 17 - so they will have 10 days to deliver 3k cars. Also, because of regular, very dispersed ships their EU internal transport structure is in already place. I think only see a few hundred will be still in transit.

 

[Spacemanspliff]

I assume you are talking deliveries.
What overhang from Q1 are you estimating?

Yes, deliveries.

2,324 model 3 overhang in April

Notes for my China estimate
-5 ships confidently delivering in Q2 with avg 775 3’s a ship
-250ish X delivered in April (plus it seems safe to say atleast 50 S), gives me 300 S/X per month in Q2


2,324 model 3 hangover
3,875 Q2 model 3 boat deliveries
900 S/X

 

[EVNow]

The possible high of 8k for China is out the window now with that last China shipment.

Solidly 7k for China Q2.

China is a bit of mystery. I don't know why they sent cars in 6 ships - but just over a thousand in each. Is it really cheaper to send regularly in larger number of ships instead of filling fewer ships ? May be these are ships getting cars from Japan to US and usually go back empty, so they get really cheap rates ?

 

[Spacemanspliff]

You mean 2500 S/X in June ?

I think the transit numbers will be lower. Because the deliveries are more spread out this time - and more importantly they don't have any beginner hiccup like they did in Q1, they should be able to deliver almost all the ordered cars that landed in the first 5 ships. The last ship lands on June 17 - so they will have 10 days to deliver 3k cars. Also, because of regular, very dispersed ships their EU internal transport structure is in already place. I think only see a few hundred will be still in transit.

Yes sorry I mean 2500k in June.

See my post above regarding in transit, I agree and stated very similar things. It’s also an important note that the last ship is rumored to have a portion of RHDs, so if it goes to Zeebrugge unloads for a day on the 22nd, then goes to the U.K. unloads for a day they could be done by the 24th/25th. Giving the EU roughly 9 days to deliver a possible half load and the U.K. 6 days to deliver a half load in a small country. (Higher risk of failure on the U.K. side due to first 3’s but it’s a small batch.)