Most of us still are informing TE. In 3rd quarter Tesla suddenly, for the first time, had gigantic Energy sales, most of which seem to have been attributable to GigaPacks:
IN 3rd quarter Tesla delivered 2,100 MWh of storage, up from 1,295 MWh the previous year. The changes during 2022 have clearly been realized as the Lathrop factory is beginning the ramp towards the 40GWh currently disclosed:
Tesla's all-new battery energy storage system (BESS) factory in Lathrop, California is almost ready and is ramping up production. Let's take a look.
insideevs.com
Massive Energy Storage
www.tesla.com
We can presume the majority of revenue is from Gigapacks and, based on a recent large quote, about $420 KWh or ~$6000 per pack for larger orders. That would yield something in excess of $4 billion in revenue for the 3rd quarter. Tesla reported $1,013 million in Energy Generation and Storage in 3rd quarter.
Why the huge discrepancy? In all probability, as in energy generation revenue, the nature of large scale energy projects is to use project financing with payouts linked to actual production.
If these assumptions are correct Tesla is on the verge of material investments in energy production, partly explaining all the licenses Tesla has been acquiring. That is, VPP's are just the tip of the iceberg. Beginning either this quarter or next year substantial income flows will be realized.
There will be four primary components:
1. Ongoing payments from large utility-level storage sales;
2. Growing revenues from utility maintenance and Supercharging (e.g. widespread Megapacks and solar power for Superchargers);
3. Direct sales of Megapacks, Powerpacks and solar;
4. Grid services, including Autobidder, VPP's and energy retailing.
Each of these has been disclosed. Each has been expected to become material. None have thus far been material.
So, why now? Lathrop, Buffalo, plus very large new supplies of iron-based chemistries making, for the first time, enough supply to expand all these businesses.
This all is not yet quantifiable but it certainly will be, in part with 4Q.
(I hope this is not out of place here. The idea is to foment more serious analysis of these issues now so they will not be total surprises.