bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Berlin shipped vehicles to Taiwan (which has laws prohibiting the purchase of cars from China).
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Near-future quarterly financial projections
- Thread starter luvb2b
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- elon is an ass
Berlin shipped vehicles to Taiwan (which has laws prohibiting the purchase of cars from China).
Stormy’s real good at “just asking questions” and “doing his own research.”
petit_bateau
Active Member
damonbrodie
Member
Q1 EPS results from Tesla are going to be very very interesting. All of the price cuts and increases, combined in the ramp improvements in Austin+Berlin and declining materials costs. I think its going to be extremely challenging for anybody (including both the enthusiast retail investors and Wall Street) to get a good sense on what the cost basis is for vehicles produced.
All of that combined with the improvements to the energy business and whatever effect that has on the bottom line. Semi truck is still too small to have an appreciable effect, but will become a going concern in upcoming Qs.
Over the past few weeks the WS estimates for Q1, Q2 and Q3 have been slowly declining. Q1 now sits at .78/share EPS (GAAP) which is a rather significant drop given that that WS expects an increase in vehicles delivered from 405K up to 421K.
Honestly, I really have no idea where the EPS will land this Q, but I do feel it will likely be quite a surprise. The big question - will it be a positive or negative surprise. I know this is a ways off before they report in April, but it makes me nervous about the SP when they do report...
All of that combined with the improvements to the energy business and whatever effect that has on the bottom line. Semi truck is still too small to have an appreciable effect, but will become a going concern in upcoming Qs.
Over the past few weeks the WS estimates for Q1, Q2 and Q3 have been slowly declining. Q1 now sits at .78/share EPS (GAAP) which is a rather significant drop given that that WS expects an increase in vehicles delivered from 405K up to 421K.
Honestly, I really have no idea where the EPS will land this Q, but I do feel it will likely be quite a surprise. The big question - will it be a positive or negative surprise. I know this is a ways off before they report in April, but it makes me nervous about the SP when they do report...
jeewee3000
Active Member
I agree. We know that compared to Shanghai, Berlin and Austin, the Fremont factory produces the worst quality build vehicles at the highest production cost. (I'm not saying Fremont vehicles suck, but compared to the Alien Dreadnought gigafactories their build quality is inferior. This has been confirmed to me twice at my local Tesla dealership. They're always saying how Shanghai Y's are much better build quality than Fremont.)
When it was just Fremont and Shanghai it didn't make sense to shut down Fremont for a rebuild. It would affect the quarterly numbers way too much.
But now with Berlin and Austin ramping I think Tesla wants to apply lessons learned to Fremont. I guess that's what project Highland is about. And I'd even guess Fremont will not build model Y anymore, just model 3. Then Fremont is the designated model 3 production facility for the US and Austin the dedicated model Y production facility.
Insert 4680's and castings into model 3 and it all becomes clear. Model 3 can use Kato Road cells, Model Y can use Austin cells.
(and the former Model Y line at Fremont becomes a 4680 cell line, of course
)
petit_bateau
Active Member
Something seems to be going on as you say.I agree. We know that compared to Shanghai, Berlin and Austin, the Fremont factory produces the worst quality build vehicles at the highest production cost. (I'm not saying Fremont vehicles suck, but compared to the Alien Dreadnought gigafactories their build quality is inferior. This has been confirmed to me twice at my local Tesla dealership. They're always saying how Shanghai Y's are much better build quality than Fremont.)
When it was just Fremont and Shanghai it didn't make sense to shut down Fremont for a rebuild. It would affect the quarterly numbers way too much.
But now with Berlin and Austin ramping I think Tesla wants to apply lessons learned to Fremont. I guess that's what project Highland is about. And I'd even guess Fremont will not build model Y anymore, just model 3. Then Fremont is the designated model 3 production facility for the US and Austin the dedicated model Y production facility.
Insert 4680's and castings into model 3 and it all becomes clear. Model 3 can use Kato Road cells, Model Y can use Austin cells.
(and the former Model Y line at Fremont becomes a 4680 cell line, of course
Fun fact I learnt today. All the RHD 3 and Y (UK, Australia, NZ) come from Shanghai. Not sure where Japan takes its 3 and Y from. Presumably Thailand Singapore take from Japan ?
our shipping guru I think said that Japan is now served form Shanghai. Only Taiwan receives 3 from Fremont and Y from Berlin. The only difference would be charge port type I think Japan version gets NACS while other RHD countries get CCS Type 2
edit: Korea maybe also getting from Shanghai with SC port
Very interesting link by TMC shipping guru:
www.automotivelogistics.media
Ro-ro capacity crunch means carmakers are looking for containers
A shortage in available ro-ro capacity and an increase in EV shipments from China means carmakers are looking for vehicle containerisation services, such as those offered by CFR Rinkens
www.automotivelogistics.media
petit_bateau
Active Member
Assume for simplicity that China is supplied by Shanghai; and NAFTA by USA. So Europe is making (say) 250k in Berlin but taking (say) 1/3 of 2m/yr which is 660k, i.e. import needs are 410k/yr into Europe.Very interesting link by TMC shipping guru:
Ro-ro capacity crunch means carmakers are looking for containers
A shortage in available ro-ro capacity and an increase in EV shipments from China means carmakers are looking for vehicle containerisation services, such as those offered by CFR Rinkens
Tesla simply cannot take the risk of shipping cars from China to Europe via rail. The war in Ukraine makes the Tesla-specific resk very real.
Say there are 7,000 cars/vessel. That is 60 sailing/year. Allow 40 days per return trip, so 9 trips per vessel per year. So Tesla needs about 7 vessels minmum on full time contract until Berlin fully ramps up to carry an even share of globa production. You can see why Hyundai operate (and build) their own ro-ro fleet.
However that is only 7 vessels dedicated to Tesla. Looking at the vessel numbers on order this cycle will go from boom to bust very quickly after 2023. Especially when rail becomes properly available again.
Everyone is walking down their 2023 numbers. There is either enormous pressure to conform to Tesla guidance (1.8m or the Musk blurt of 2.0m), or else private information is coming through their channels. Getting to 2.2m should be a no-brainer. I don't think this is a level playing field in terms of the necessary data for connecting the dots.
Some people are saying Troy is too optimistic at least for Q1. China Feb 6-12 sales came in at 6,963
Big numbers need to move for the rest of the quarter to hit Troy’s 129k in China
Big numbers need to move for the rest of the quarter to hit Troy’s 129k in China
Model Y inventory is almost non-existent in the US but there appears to be plenty in Europe.
Prices for the Model Y trims weren’t cut as much across most of Europe as they were in North America, I have a feeling the team is waiting for Europe’s response to the Inflation Reduction Act and what further incentives may look like. It seems unlikely that would be coming this quarter but who knows.
Prices for the Model Y trims weren’t cut as much across most of Europe as they were in North America, I have a feeling the team is waiting for Europe’s response to the Inflation Reduction Act and what further incentives may look like. It seems unlikely that would be coming this quarter but who knows.
Doggydogworld
Active Member
Troy is correct. The US is floating on a tidal wave of BidenBucks and should be production constrained. Europe? Not so much. 2022 EV sales there grew a bit less than 15%, from 2.27m to 2.60m and this year should be similar. I expect Tesla to gain share again, going from sub-9% to 11-12%. But we're still talking 350k-ish, with 150k+ 3/Y (mostly 3) from Shanghai and ~10k S/X from Fremont. So 200k Berlin Ys is in the ballpark.
Yeah, Tesla China seems to be trending toward 90k in Q1. The big surge after the price cut has faded. Tesla seems to have "flattened the wave", eliminating the customary big backlog of Jan/Feb orders to be delivered in March.
China ex-Tesla has always been very seasonal. Market dominatrix BYD's Q1 is looking like -33% sequentially and the Nio/XPeng/Li crowd is similar or worse. By that standard -25% sequential for Tesla isn't bad. But a fall from 108k last Q1 to 90k this year would indeed be bad. And Troy has much better data than me. So i keep thinking I must be missing something. If anyone knows what I'm missing please speak up.
it's about 5000 cars/ship and 4 weeks to UK/BE or 3 weeks Koper/SI
Doggydogworld
Active Member
Update - Bloomberg is reporting Shanghai will shut down the rest of February for upgrades (presumably Model 3 Highland). It's easy to read this as yet another production slowdown to match lower demand and work off inventory. But it means there's a chance those 6963 insurance registrations last week don't represent true demand. If Tesla pushed orders from February until next month when the factory is at full speed again they could have a "big March" after all. Or at least big-ish. A monthly cadence of 27k + 30k + 60k = 117k would still be less than Troy's 129k Q1 estimate, but far above my 27k + 30k + 33k = 90k scenario.
petit_bateau
Active Member
With a low-ish Q1 it begins to seem as if Tesla is just like all auto manufcturers after all
petit_bateau
Active Member
Doggydogworld
Active Member
Troy tweaked US up a little and Europe down a little. China is the one I don't get. He still has 129k for Q1 but reduced Q2/Q3/Q4 to 122-125k. This despite Q1 being seasonally weak and the December 31 subsidy cliff pulling demand from this quarter into Q4 last year. The early January price cuts offset the subsidy change (more than offset for Model 3), but I'd still expect a 20%-ish sequential drop due to seasonality.
Sales are ~1k/day after adjusting for Lunar New Year. That indicates 90-100k for Q1. China usually has a "big third month", but December wasn't and I see no evidence they pushed domestic deliveries into the back half of this quarter. It seems factory capacity is now enough for both domestic and export. I'd expect something like 100k / 120k / 130k / 140k this year. But Troy has much better data than me, so you're probably better off listening to him.
Sales are ~1k/day after adjusting for Lunar New Year. That indicates 90-100k for Q1. China usually has a "big third month", but December wasn't and I see no evidence they pushed domestic deliveries into the back half of this quarter. It seems factory capacity is now enough for both domestic and export. I'd expect something like 100k / 120k / 130k / 140k this year. But Troy has much better data than me, so you're probably better off listening to him.
It‘s possible the current IRA subsides in effect are leading to China LFP battery capacity being shipped to Fremont for US Model 3 production in Q1, to maximize output/profits before the battery sourcing requirements come into effect in March April (whenever they are clarified). This would presumably lead to less China output in Q1 (but increased Fremont M3 output), and would make Q1 a perfect time for further China M3 line upgrades.
Any reason why this couldn’t be happening?
Any reason why this couldn’t be happening?
