Near-future quarterly financial projections

[petit_bateau]

Fwiw, for FY23 @Troy is at ~1.836m deliveries, TSLA IR compiled average is 1.849m, Gary Black is at 1.9m, and WS average (per Bloomberg, as of two days ago) is 1.85m. Will be interesting to see how much those change after the EC today. Is WS 23% low?

Not sure how likely we are to see 2/Z and/or Van vehicles at all in FY2024. The last couple of iterations - Semi & CT - have taken 3-4 years (or longer) from product unveil to first deliveries. The only one that went quickly was MY, but that was mostly because of how many components it shares with the Model 3, I think.

You asked about CT ramping in your previous post - I think this is a big variable. It's a new method of manufacturing so we don't really have a historical basis from Tesla to use. It could go quickly or there could be a lot of initial bugs that slow things down. I would say this ramp is going to be very hard to predict for that reason.

Barring updated guidance from the Tesla team, I think it's just a lot of shots in the dark right now -> perhaps we'll hear more about their plans later today or on March 1st and get a clearer picture.

I have come at this from various directions;
- if I take Tesla at their word of 20m/yr by 2030, and assume they have a plan, what must that plan look like so as to be plausible (e.g. don't leave it all to the last year);
- how does that compare with Tesla's historical performance and proven capabilities;
- how does that compare with overall global needs, looking from a macro level;
- how does that compare with individual client needs, looking from a micro level;
- how does that compare with previous transitions;
- is that resulting forecast internally consistent and non-contradictory ?

Various versions of that come out something like this table below. A key issue is that if Tesla does not hit >50% relative growth rates (i.e. % terms) in the 2023 and 2024 years, then they will need to hit even less realistic absolute growth rates (in absolute # terms) that will exceed 3m/yr in later years. When one thinks of the supply chain implications of that (for example why would a press manufacturer build a press manufacturing line that can handle a peak of 6m/y for just one year) it seems unrealistic. There is also the matter of what happens in the 2030-2040 period and how energy needs to run alongside this in a phased-yet-sequential manner. It is after going round all the constraints in such a manner that I come out with tables such as this.

Hence my concern at what is showing in the data as we head through the next 24-months. Some of this is Covid, but some of this is also 4680, and some of course is the Russian invasion of Ukraine. But nonetheless I do wonder about it.

 

[Congo Line]

I have come at this from various directions;
- if I take Tesla at their word of 20m/yr by 2030, and assume they have a plan, what must that plan look like so as to be plausible (e.g. don't leave it all to the last year);
- how does that compare with Tesla's historical performance and proven capabilities;
- how does that compare with overall global needs, looking from a macro level;
- how does that compare with individual client needs, looking from a micro level;
- how does that compare with previous transitions;
- is that resulting forecast internally consistent and non-contradictory ?

Various versions of that come out something like this table below. A key issue is that if Tesla does not hit >50% relative growth rates (i.e. % terms) in the 2023 and 2024 years, then they will need to hit even less realistic absolute growth rates (in absolute # terms) that will exceed 3m/yr in later years. When one thinks of the supply chain implications of that (for example why would a press manufacturer build a press manufacturing line that can handle a peak of 6m/y for just one year) it seems unrealistic. There is also the matter of what happens in the 2030-2040 period and how energy needs to run alongside this in a phased-yet-sequential manner. It is after going round all the constraints in such a manner that I come out with tables such as this.

Hence my concern at what is showing in the data as we head through the next 24-months. Some of this is Covid, but some of this is also 4680, and some of course is the Russian invasion of Ukraine. But nonetheless I do wonder about it.

View attachment 899724

Personally have always wondered the same thing; the absolute numbers for 50% annual growth get very implausible the closer one gets to 2030. Glad to see I'm not the only one. Personally, my TSLA valuation spreadsheet discounts the growth rate to more like 15-20% in those latter years.

 

[Congo Line]

Fwiw, for FY23 @Troy is at ~1.836m deliveries, TSLA IR compiled average is 1.849m, Gary Black is at 1.9m, and WS average (per Bloomberg, as of two days ago) is 1.85m. Will be interesting to see how much those change after the EC today. Is WS 23% low?

Not sure how likely we are to see 2/Z and/or Van vehicles at all in FY2024. The last couple of iterations - Semi & CT - have taken 3-4 years (or longer) from product unveil to first deliveries. The only one that went quickly was MY, but that was mostly because of how many components it shares with the Model 3, I think.

You asked about CT ramping in your previous post - I think this is a big variable. It's a new method of manufacturing so we don't really have a historical basis from Tesla to use. It could go quickly or there could be a lot of initial bugs that slow things down. I would say this ramp is going to be very hard to predict for that reason.

Barring updated guidance from the Tesla team, I think it's just a lot of shots in the dark right now -> perhaps we'll hear more about their plans later today or on March 1st and get a clearer picture.

Wouldn't it seem feasible to build a van using the cybertruck underbody? Or perhaps a Euro-style small van using model 3/y chassis

 

[heltok]

If I insert Production numbers in place of deliveries in my model for Q3 and Q4, non-GAAP eps would have changed:

Q3 from $1.05 to $1.15
Q4 from $1.23 to $1.36

Thanks! I think these numbers make sense to consider when doing 2023 estimates. If they just repeat Q4 production and keep Q4 inventory with no changes to ASP and COGS (and we ignore everything else) then 4x$1.36 would be the results for the year right?

 

[heltok]

I have come at this from various directions;
- if I take Tesla at their word of 20m/yr by 2030, and assume they have a plan, what must that plan look like so as to be plausible (e.g. don't leave it all to the last year);
- how does that compare with Tesla's historical performance and proven capabilities;
- how does that compare with overall global needs, looking from a macro level;
- how does that compare with individual client needs, looking from a micro level;
- how does that compare with previous transitions;
- is that resulting forecast internally consistent and non-contradictory ?

Various versions of that come out something like this table below. A key issue is that if Tesla does not hit >50% relative growth rates (i.e. % terms) in the 2023 and 2024 years, then they will need to hit even less realistic absolute growth rates (in absolute # terms) that will exceed 3m/yr in later years. When one thinks of the supply chain implications of that (for example why would a press manufacturer build a press manufacturing line that can handle a peak of 6m/y for just one year) it seems unrealistic. There is also the matter of what happens in the 2030-2040 period and how energy needs to run alongside this in a phased-yet-sequential manner. It is after going round all the constraints in such a manner that I come out with tables such as this.

Hence my concern at what is showing in the data as we head through the next 24-months. Some of this is Covid, but some of this is also 4680, and some of course is the Russian invasion of Ukraine. But nonetheless I do wonder about it.

View attachment 899724

2023 seems easy to hit 50% unless something unexpected happens. Just do 2022 Q4 production and they are almost there and they are ramping two factories and adding two new products so some more growth is expected. By 2023 Q4 they will have ramped all factories and cybertruck ramping to give them a good start towards their goal for 2024. But yes, imo that's when the goal will be harder to meet.

The big question is the Gen3 car, when will it be presented, when will factory construction begin, when will production begin, when will it be ramped. If they want to hit amazing 2024 growth they should probably start this soon. But the good news is that they can probably build factories for it in Austin, Shanghai and Berlin at the same time. And if they aim to make double the volume of Gen3 compared to 3/Y from each factory, then that's a lot of cars. Let's say it takes them 3 years to ramp, that's a 200% growth in 3years, that's a 44% growth rate, cybertruck, semi and improvements of 3,Y,S,X might take help them with the rest.

Then we will see what Gen4 is...

 

[The Accountant]

Actual results were relatively in line with my Q4 Tesla estimate.
There was FSD revenue recognition of $324m in Q4 that helped actual results get closer to my estimate.
The biggest miss I had was on the Cost of Goods Sold line (my $18.1B vs actual of $18.5B).

 

[petit_bateau]

Fwiw, for FY23 @Troy is at ~1.836m deliveries, TSLA IR compiled average is 1.849m, Gary Black is at 1.9m, and WS average (per Bloomberg, as of two days ago) is 1.85m. Will be interesting to see how much those change after the EC today. Is WS 23% low?

Not sure how likely we are to see 2/Z and/or Van vehicles at all in FY2024. The last couple of iterations - Semi & CT - have taken 3-4 years (or longer) from product unveil to first deliveries. The only one that went quickly was MY, but that was mostly because of how many components it shares with the Model 3, I think.

You asked about CT ramping in your previous post - I think this is a big variable. It's a new method of manufacturing so we don't really have a historical basis from Tesla to use. It could go quickly or there could be a lot of initial bugs that slow things down. I would say this ramp is going to be very hard to predict for that reason.

Barring updated guidance from the Tesla team, I think it's just a lot of shots in the dark right now -> perhaps we'll hear more about their plans later today or on March 1st and get a clearer picture.

Well 1.8m is the official guidance now.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Well 1.8m is the official guidance now.

And that's production, they also say they'll continue to even out deliveries which is the rationale they give for rising inventory. Musk will probably be more "aspirational" in the conference call, though, and mention 2 million.

 

[petit_bateau]

And that's production, they also say they'll continue to even out deliveries which is the rationale they give for rising inventory. Musk will probably be more "aspirational" in the conference call, though, and mention 2 million.

They also say that Shanghai is at plateau.

What is going on with the ground they pre-loaded a couple of years ago. And the rumours of a postponed Shanghai expansion.

 

[Doggydogworld]

They also say that Shanghai is at plateau.

What is going on with the ground they pre-loaded a couple of years ago. And the rumours of a postponed Shanghai expansion.

Model 2 is the next growth leg. As I've said before, the best case scenario is they've been keeping development secret and it's close to production.

The downside is if 3/Y hit a saturation point and sales decline. That's very common with high volume models after they become too commonplace on the roads and lose their "freshness". That's why refreshes and badge engineering exist. That's also why you see variants (convertible! Turbo! Rallye Edition!) show up a couple years into the design cycle as sales sag.

Tesla has been immune, but they never sold a high volume model until late 2018 in the US and 2019 elsewhere. There are now 3m+ near-identical 3/Ys out there, of which 2.1m appeared in the last 24 months. They went from "hey, there's a 3/Y" to being all over the place almost overnight.

Camouflage sightings suggest a 3/Y refresh is coming, so at least they're on top of it.

 

[Boomer19]

what is the 4.368b purchases of investments in the cash flow statement?
(sorry i didn’t listen to call yet or read 20 pages in main thread)

 

[mongo]

what is the 4.368b purchases of investments in the cash flow statement?
(sorry i didn’t listen to call yet or read 20 pages in main thread)

We don't know... yet...
Hopefully 10Q sheds some light on it.

 

[Boomer19]

buyback booked that way?

sbf bailout?

 

[DarkandStormy]

And that's production, they also say they'll continue to even out deliveries which is the rationale they give for rising inventory. Musk will probably be more "aspirational" in the conference call, though, and mention 2 million.

Nice prediction - Musk said 2m is feasible, but they wanted to build in a buffer (he said earthquakes, floods, etc. but if you read between the lines he's talking about a recession / economic headwinds).

1.8m makes very little sense to me. They just did 439k in 4Q22...which is an annualized rate of 1.756m. Either they're sandbagging 2023 badly or they're implicitly forecasting Shanghai and/or Fremont will slow down from their 4Q22 rate, because presumably Austin & Berlin will continue ramping this year.

 

[jeewee3000]

Personally have always wondered the same thing; the absolute numbers for 50% annual growth get very implausible the closer one gets to 2030. Glad to see I'm not the only one. Personally, my TSLA valuation spreadsheet discounts the growth rate to more like 15-20% in those latter years.

The next generation Tesla vehicle platform will deliver on this.

Think of it this way: when Tesla had the Roadster out and the Model S was ramping, we heard Elon talking about how the Model 3 would be higher volume.

People were very sceptical about this but look how the 3/Y platform turned out.

The next platform takes all the learnings from 3/Y/battery day and combines them into a platform that has only two priorities:
1) safety
2) easy to manufacture at scale/cheaply

Elon hinted at the ultimate dream of basically a matchbox car (one casting). More recently (in a Youtube interview I believe) he has said one casting is probably not feasible, so two castings connected with a structural battery pack stay the best approach.

But the lessons learned from the 4680 Model Y will result in a better, cheaper design.

The biggest question is if Tesla will all out go for pure robotaxi or if they will still give it pedals and a steering wheel. Personally I can't help but think they will add pedals/wheel but with Elon you never know. This thing will have hardware 4 at least and is built with autonomy in mind.

Tesla's goal is to build millions of this cheaper vehicle. If the Model Y can sell around 1M per year (ramping to this), then the next gen platform at 2/3 of the price can sell a multiple of that.

Better still, if they can truly get a $25k vehicle on the road, this thing will sell millions even in less developed countries (India, Indonesia, South-America/Africa?).

It should be the smalles vehicle Tesla will ever build. Other expected products are more like vans/RV's (smaller volume, more cells needed). Tesla won't build a tinycar out of safety concerns (and robotaxi feasability, you need to be able to pick up more than 2 passengers).

So yeah, I'll end my rant here but the nextgen Tesla vehicle platform is very exciting and the goal will be to sell millions of them. It'll probably have at least two models (like 3/Y now) in order to please more customers, so if each model sells 5M/year when ramped we are 10M closer to the 20M/year goal.

20M/year consisting of:
S/X: 0.1M
3/Y: 2M (conservative)
nextgen platform: 10M
Cybertruck: 0.5M (what they guided for)
Semi: 0.1M
Van: 1M
RV: 0.5M
Roadster II: 0.01M

Total: 14.21 M so far
Anyone has an idea how to fill in the 6M gap ?
(EDIT: Optimus of course. 6M at least)

 

[The Accountant]

what is the 4.368b purchases of investments in the cash flow statement?
(sorry i didn’t listen to call yet or read 20 pages in main thread)

It is likely Short Term Gov't and Corp Debt Securities; a place to park their cash to earn some interest income.
Interest Income was an amazing $157m in Q4. I could see interest Income for the full year of 2023 reaching $800m or more.

 

[ammulder]

1.8m makes very little sense to me. They just did 439k in 4Q22...which is an annualized rate of 1.756m. Either they're sandbagging 2023 badly or they're implicitly forecasting Shanghai and/or Fremont will slow down from their 4Q22 rate, because presumably Austin & Berlin will continue ramping this year.

With things as they are, it would be crazy to put out some aggressive goal, then (force majeure) then they miss it by 5-10% and get crucified. If Wall Street is happy with guidance of 1.8M, why not give them what they want to hear and then (God willing) beat it? We know Tesla has higher goals and estimates internally, but there seems to be little need to make that the official target.

When the stock was $1200 it probably seemed like they needed super-aggressive goals to justify it. Here in the $100s, land of "Tesla is just another automaker", not so much.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

It is likely Short Term Gov't and Corp Debt Securities; a place to park their cash to earn some interest income.
Interest Income was an amazing $157m in Q4. I could see interest Income for the full year of 2023 reaching $800m or more.

I wonder how much better off they would be if they had done more of that instead of buying BTC

 

[DarkandStormy]

Help me out with back of the napkin math here.

Tesla management is guiding for 1.8m deliveries in 2023.
Tesla made about $9k in net profit per vehicle sold in 4Q22 (also close in 3Q22), depending on how much net income you attribute to Energy & Service.
They just cut prices by $6k per vehicle. Let's say they recognize a cost savings of $1.5k/vehicle in 2023. That's now $4.5k/vehicle in net profit.

Well, 1.8m x $4.5k would equate to $8.1bn in net profit, without any price changes to the lineup. Add in $900m of net profit from energy and that's $9bn.

That's ~$2.60 EPS for FY23 given the guidance from management and the above assumptions of the price cuts.

 

[MP3Mike]

Tesla management is guiding for 1.8m deliveries in 2023.

No, they didn't. (That was a production guidance.)

They just cut prices by $6k per vehicle. Let's say they recognize a cost savings of $1.5k/vehicle in 2023. That's now $4.5k/vehicle in net profit.

We don't know how much they cut the ASP. Zach made it very clear that they were still working through the backlog of lower priced orders, and that in part of Q4 they were already giving discounts. So, the ASP isn't going to fall as much as people are thinking it will.