Near-future quarterly financial projections

[mrwuffles]

Shorty interpretation is that this is bad

Véhicules électriques: 57% des demandes de subventions viennent du Québec | MÉLANIE MARQUIS | Actualités

I'm long TSLA via stock and call options, but the Ontario # does indeed look bad. It's by far the most populous and richest province. The article attributes it to their idiotic premier (brother to the former coke-head mayor of Toronto) discontinuing the provincial EV incentives. But that was done last year. People buy Teslas in the US with about equal tax credits ($3,750 US) to Canada's federal credit (CAD $5K), so I'm wondering what else is going on here? I used to live in Toronto, and all cars cost more there even accounting for the exchange rate difference, plus taxes and COL are higher. But I still wouldn't expect such a huge difference.

 

[EVNow]

For the record, this is what Goldman is forecasting.Interesting to note he assumes Inventory days & Receivable days won't change much even after China factory. Tesla will never achieve free cash flow positive etc

 

[Doggydogworld]

For the record, this is what Goldman is forecasting.Interesting to note he assumes Inventory days & Receivable days won't change much even after China factory. Tesla will never achieve free cash flow positive etc

View attachment 421905

His numbers are goofy. SG&A of 535m in 2018? He's off by 2 billion. His 2018 revenue is correct and COGS are close, but why does he later subtract D&A when a big chunk of that is included in COGS?

Hard to take his forecasts seriously when his historical numbers are so far off.

 

[EVNow]

His numbers are goofy. SG&A of 535m in 2018? He's off by 2 billion. His 2018 revenue is correct and COGS are close, but why does he later subtract D&A when a big chunk of that is included in COGS?

Hard to take his forecasts seriously when his historical numbers are so far off.

Not sure what he is doing. Can't believe he would be so wrong. My guess is he is in some way normalizing it by debucting some expenses from SG&A.

PS: May be he is taking out the depreciation from COGS and SG&A to get EBITDA and subtracting that after wards to get EBIT. But I don't think depreciation is that big a portion of SGA.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Not sure what he is doing. Can't believe he would be so wrong. My guess is he is in some way normalizing it by debucting some expenses from SG&A.

PS: May be he is taking out the depreciation from COGS and SG&A to get EBITDA and subtracting that after wards to get EBIT. But I don't think depreciation is that big a portion of SGA.

I think he pulls D&A, stock comp and one-time charges out of COGS, SG&A and R&D to get non-GAAP EBITDA. He then folds D&A back in to get non-GAAP EBIT and then interest to get non-GAAP P&L. Why he takes the bulk of D&A and stock comp out of SG&A is a mystery. And he should asterisk it and/or rename his categories as most analysts do.

 

[tmoz]

I can't wait until August 7th when they report Q2. That is 6.5 weeks from now. And only one more week to affect those numbers.
Thanks guys for taking an educated guess at the numbers.
Just stay afloat until XYZ happens, where XYZ is either the Model 3, Model Y, Pickup Truck, China, battery drop in price, etc.
But 2 yrs from now, if nothing catastrophic happens, then we can add, "just wait until the robo fleet wakes up". I expect all of this to happen within the next 5 yrs. My model S is 4 yrs old. A lot has happened since then, but should pale in comparison to the next 4 yrs. BTW - I also can't wait to buy a model Y and a pickup Truck, but alas, I must wait.

 

[mongo]

His numbers are goofy. SG&A of 535m in 2018? He's off by 2 billion. His 2018 revenue is correct and COGS are close, but why does he later subtract D&A when a big chunk of that is included in COGS?

Hard to take his forecasts seriously when his historical numbers are so far off.

Only goofy?
Days of inventory at end of Q1 2019 was 30, even with the crazy shipping delay overhang, yet he calls out 53 days of inventory at end of 2018.
Also calling for a total profit of $139 million for Q2, Q3, Q4 2019 (based on -$563 2019 total and $702 Q1 loss ).

 

[EVNow]

Only goofy?
Days of inventory at end of Q1 2019 was 30, even with the crazy shipping delay overhang, yet he calls out 53 days of inventory at end of 2018.
Also calling for a total profit of $139 million for Q2, Q3, Q4 2019 (based on -$563 2019 total and $702 Q1 loss ).

His profit is non-gaap. So, its really a Q1 loss of $494M (probably less if you remove one time items, like he is doing).

 

[mongo]

His profit is non-gaap. So, its really a Q1 loss of $494M (probably less if you remove one time items, like he is doing).

So he is expecting a net loss for Q2-Q4 combined?

 

[EVNow]

So he is expecting a net loss for Q2-Q4 combined?

Yes, he is expecting a net loss in Q2-Q4, that too non-gaap. I've it at $460M profit

Basically, he thinks just like in Q1, Q3 will be a bad quarter because of Q2 pull forward/tax credit reduction.

I've the production, delivery numbers going up in Q3 from Q2. It would be interesting to see what guidance Tesla gives for Q3.

I think in Q3, Q4 S/X production and delivery numbers will improve to over 20k. If that doesn't happen, Tesla will likely make $100M profit in Q2-Q4.

 

[vigleik]

I can't wait until August 7th when they report Q2.

Did Tesla announce that they will report on August 7? I have seen no such announcement, and I would expect results sooner. Most likely on either July 24 or July 31.

 

[neroden]

I'm long TSLA via stock and call options, but the Ontario # does indeed look bad. It's by far the most populous and richest province. The article attributes it to their idiotic premier (brother to the former coke-head mayor of Toronto) discontinuing the provincial EV incentives. But that was done last year.

*Sigh* OK, time to apply my tax credit hangover model again. It's based on the Hong Kong tax change, which *doubled* the price of the car (effectively, there was a 50% discount for buying before the change), and pulled *18 months* of demand forward.

$14000 tax credit on a $40000 vehicle. That's a 35% discount. It should have pulled forward a full year of demand. Somewhat less because not everyone was *able* to get their Teslas early, but that is the modelled pullforward. Since the credit ended last June, demand should just be coming back now, and be back to normal in July.

I'm wondering what else is going on here? I used to live in Toronto, and all cars cost more there even accounting for the exchange rate difference, plus taxes and COL are higher. But I still wouldn't expect such a huge difference.

I believe no further explanation is necessary. If we have low numbers for Q3 in Ontario, *then* you would need a further explanation.

 

[Doggydogworld]

$14000 tax credit on a $40000 vehicle. That's a 35% discount.

The Model 3 available in Canada last June cost $64,000 CAD, if I recall, so roughly a 22% discount.

 

[neroden]

The Model 3 available in Canada last June cost $64,000 CAD, if I recall, so roughly a 22% discount.

Based on that, then, Ontario sales should have started to recover in March or so. Mine is a pretty inexact model, though.

I think there may be supply-side weirdness going on. All of Canada was supply constrained for quite a while. BC seems to be intensely supply constrained still, and Canadian cars may have been directed preferentially to BC. I'm not sure what the waiting times are in Ontario at the moment.

 

[tmoz]

Did Tesla announce that they will report on August 7? I have seen no such announcement, and I would expect results sooner. Most likely on either July 24 or July 31.

Here are a couple of estimates:
8/7
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Earnings Report
https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/tsla/earnings-calendar
8/5
Tesla Calendar | Markets Insider
7/30
Earnings TSLA: Company Earnings Calendar for TSLA - Yahoo Finance

So who knows. When it comes to Tesla, I don't set my hopes up for the early dates.
Surely by the 7th we will know.

 

[BBone]

*Sigh* OK, time to apply my tax credit hangover model again. It's based on the Hong Kong tax change, which *doubled* the price of the car (effectively, there was a 50% discount for buying before the change), and pulled *18 months* of demand forward.

$14000 tax credit on a $40000 vehicle. That's a 35% discount. It should have pulled forward a full year of demand. Somewhat less because not everyone was *able* to get their Teslas early, but that is the modelled pullforward. Since the credit ended last June, demand should just be coming back now, and be back to normal in July.



I believe no further explanation is necessary. If we have low numbers for Q3 in Ontario, *then* you would need a further explanation.

I don't know about actual sales @ Tesla in Ontario, although I was at one of the Toronto area service centres just yesterday and they said that they are still asking their staff to help with end of quarter sales/deliveries in the Toronto area. There are quite a few Teslas in certain parts of the Toronto area, sometimes I'm in a group of 4 or even 5 Teslas rolling down the Don Valley Parkway at the fabulous speed of 5 to 7 kph. Also this may be offset by what appear to be big numbers in British Columbia (from other people's posts).

 

[ggr]

Here are a couple of estimates:
8/7
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Earnings Report
https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/tsla/earnings-calendar
8/5
Tesla Calendar | Markets Insider
7/30
Earnings TSLA: Company Earnings Calendar for TSLA - Yahoo Finance

So who knows. When it comes to Tesla, I don't set my hopes up for the early dates.
Surely by the 7th we will know.

Earnings reports have been earlier recently. I expect the Q2 report to be on the 24th of July (always after market on Wednesday), with a backup lau... report date of 31st.

 

[tmoz]

Earnings reports have been earlier recently. I expect the Q2 report to be on the 24th of July (always after market on Wednesday), with a backup lau... report date of 31st.

24th would be nice.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Based on that, then, Ontario sales should have started to recover in March or so. Mine is a pretty inexact model, though.

I think there may be supply-side weirdness going on. All of Canada was supply constrained for quite a while. BC seems to be intensely supply constrained still, and Canadian cars may have been directed preferentially to BC. I'm not sure what the waiting times are in Ontario at the moment.

As I reported recently, Tesla had stock of all model 3s in ON, though SR+ were left only in white interior variants. That was 2 weeks ago, not sure what's going on now. I believe white interior to be quite unpopular here, I always thought of it as 'old man' car, so I don't know if that's representation of some micro-cultural difference, as it seems popular in other locals...

No deals on anything but pre-Ravens, and they're not getting cheaper, if anything least expensive ones are gone...

I actually doubt that low number reported for ON here, the same way I was doubting high number of 4700 sales for Jan-Feb

 

[SPadival]

China data from JL Warren ( I consider her a bearish source - because she has been bearish ever since Tesla started in China. She possibly got Dana Hull blacklisted by Elon after her junk articles on Tesla China based on JL’s quote turned out to be false)

@Motorhead on Twitter

Thanks, shorty #DumDum