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Basically, he thinks just like in Q1, Q3 will be a bad quarter because of Q2 pull forward/tax credit reduction.
Why only 17k? I was thinking about 20k, leaving a total of 60k for NA.should be around 17k in Europe,
Why only 17k? I was thinking about 20k, leaving a total of 60k for NA.
This quarter we had 2 fewer ships hit Europe than Q1 -6 vs 8. That's about 7-9k cars fewer to deliver.Yeah, 17k is too low. Q1 was 23k. NO+NL+SP is running 500 ahead of Q1. That's mostly due to NL which is double what Q1 was at this point last quarter. NO and SP are down 8-10%. Barring some weird June anomaly in the rest of Europe it looks like 20k is in the bag and 21-22k is likely.
This quarter we had 2 fewer ships hit Europe than Q1 -6 vs 8. That's about 7-9k cars fewer to deliver.
Q2 so far had 8.5k deliveries which is great for the first 2 months - that's why it appears we are ahead -, but I don't see 16k for June in the cards.
I would love to be wrong, after all we had 6 ships, which could mean 20-22k cars based on Q1 avg. volumes. But when you look at the pace of deliveries, Norway for example, is 2400 cars behind Q1 and is doing ~250 cars a day with 4.5 business days to go (.5 being the Saturday). Almost to the day a quarter ago they did 550 as a record day.
But 4k+ of cars from those Q1 ships weren't delivered until Q2. They won't have the same logjam in Q2 - the last ship arrived on the 20th vs. 24th and the third-to-last ship arrived on the 4th vs. the 16th. Local logistics should be better the second time around, too.This quarter we had 2 fewer ships hit Europe than Q1 -6 vs 8. That's about 7-9k cars fewer to deliver.
Q2 so far had 8.5k deliveries which is great for the first 2 months - that's why it appears we are ahead -, but I don't see 16k for June in the cards.
But when you look at the pace of deliveries, Norway for example, is 2400 cars behind Q1 and is doing ~250 cars a day with 4.5 business days to go (.5 being the Saturday). Almost to the day a quarter ago they did 550 as a record day.
True, they have 4k from Q1 that went into April, so theoretically they could have enough cars at hand to crack 23k total - assuming none of that slips to Q3. But that is a big if, given the last ship arrived last week and we now have these supposed homologation issues.But 4k+ of cars from those Q1 ships weren't delivered until Q2. They won't have the same logjam in Q2 - the last ship arrived on the 20th vs. 24th and the third-to-last ship arrived on the 4th vs. the 16th. Local logistics should be better the second time around, too.
They don't need 16k. A little over 12k in June gets them to my 20k Q2 estimate. NO+NL+SP are still ~500 above the same day in Q1. As you note, June is running behind March and will probably lag further during the final week. That said, 12-14k in June and 20-22k for Q2 look feasible. Unless the rumored SR+ homologation problem turns this week into a dud, that is. The Netherlands and Spain were both slow on Monday, so this bears watching.
Norway is 4575 through Monday of the final week vs. 5069 on the same day in Q1. That's 500 behind, not 2000. They're on pace for 5600-6000 in Q2 vs. 7069 in Q1. The Netherlands is fading, but still ~1000 ahead of Q1. Spain looks more like Norway, maybe down 10-15%. All this is consistent with 20-22k, barring a SR+ apocalypse.
*Sigh* OK, time to apply my tax credit hangover model again. It's based on the Hong Kong tax change, which *doubled* the price of the car (effectively, there was a 50% discount for buying before the change), and pulled *18 months* of demand forward.
$14000 tax credit on a $40000 vehicle. That's a 35% discount. It should have pulled forward a full year of demand. Somewhat less because not everyone was *able* to get their Teslas early, but that is the modelled pullforward. Since the credit ended last June, demand should just be coming back now, and be back to normal in July.
I believe no further explanation is necessary. If we have low numbers for Q3 in Ontario, *then* you would need a further explanation.
It won't catch up - that's why I said Norway will be down 1000-1500 from Q1....you tell me if you think this looks like it`s catching up.
Just trying to be a bit more realistic guys. We have gone down this road many times, extrapolating too bravely only to be disappointed.
Won't complain if you end up being right.It won't catch up - that's why I said Norway will be down 1000-1500 from Q1.
I'm also trying to be realistic. I didn't start out at 20k for Europe, I've had to bump my numbers up as data came in.
Norway was 4575 as of yesterday. Add 4.5 days @ 250/day to get 5700 for the quarter. If the rest of Europe is down as much as Norway, Q2 will be:
23k * (5700 / 7046) = 18.6k
If the Netherlands and Spain also maintain last week's pace they'll end up at 2900 and 560, respectively. Projecting all three countries across the rest of Europe gives:
23k * (5700 + 2900 + 560) / (10,434) = 20.1k
That assumes no final week ramp. I can't get 17k from the visible data -- I have to assume the unseen data will be really bad. That's possible, of course. Norway was below 200 today vs. my 250/day assumption. Germany had a very disappointing May and without a big June could be down 1500 (over 40%) from Q1. On the flip side, the UK will almost certainly be up ~500 because the first Model 3s just arrived. Countries such as Sweden, Denmark and Italy look like they'll collectively be up 500 or more.
We'll know soon enough. Meanwhile, it seems SR+ deliveries are happening in Europe so the rumors were wrong.
It won't catch up - that's why I said Norway will be down 1000-1500 from Q1.
I'm also trying to be realistic. I didn't start out at 20k for Europe, I've had to bump my numbers up as data came in.
Norway was 4575 as of yesterday. Add 4.5 days @ 250/day to get 5700 for the quarter. If the rest of Europe is down as much as Norway, Q2 will be:
23k * (5700 / 7046) = 18.6k
If the Netherlands and Spain also maintain last week's pace they'll end up at 2900 and 560, respectively. Projecting all three countries across the rest of Europe gives:
23k * (5700 + 2900 + 560) / (10,434) = 20.1k
That assumes no final week ramp. I can't get 17k from the visible data -- I have to assume the unseen data will be really bad. That's possible, of course. Norway was below 200 today vs. my 250/day assumption. Germany had a very disappointing May and without a big June could be down 1500 (over 40%) from Q1. On the flip side, the UK will almost certainly be up ~500 because the first Model 3s just arrived. Countries such as Sweden, Denmark and Italy look like they'll collectively be up 500 or more.
We'll know soon enough. Meanwhile, it seems SR+ deliveries are happening in Europe so the rumors were wrong.
So 10k in China, should be around 17k in Europe, leaves 64k for North America to top Q4. With 28k already done in the US in April+May, the expected uptick in Canadian numbers and the Raven refresh hitting the US, the missing 36k is not impossible to reach. I would still think it looks like a tough goal though.
Especially since many Ontarians think that Doug Ford is a fluke; more of a referendum against the old premier, Kathleen Wynne. So some may be waiting for the next election to see if the rebates return.
49k deliveries with 22k in June means 27k April+May. Fred's June 5 article said North America April+May was 30.5k and InsideEVs says 28.3k in the US alone. My guess is the 49k is legit and they've only done ~19k in June but redefined the bonus equation to make it 22k so sales and delivery people won't throw in the towel.According to Fredtake,
* delivered over 49,000 vehicles in North America
* Have over 12,000 additional orders
* 5,000 of those 12,000 orders don’t have a scheduled delivery
Tesla orders surge for record quarter, but deliveries are the bottleneck - Electrek
So we are a little short. Maybe that's why Elon headed out to Europe today to solve " a logistics problem" (again!).
Edit: Yep.. from the horse's mouth:
In leaked email, Elon Musk says Tesla is very close to setting a record for deliveries in one quarter. But whether the company pulls it off comes down to one of the things it struggles with most
Cash flow depends too much on inventories, which depend on production for which we have no useful info.So what are the cash flow from operations and gaap estimates with the current model?
Definitely a possibility. A weird sort of Osbourning...
The sigh was because I didn't feel like applying my model again. It has been working pretty well, but I wasn't in the mood to do the math.