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Near-future quarterly financial projections

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#3,001
EVNow said:
Yes - this statement by Zach is in sharp contrast to what we see in Europe. Who is buying more S/X ?
Click to expand...

S&X is confusing to me, I can't settle on a good estimate for Q4.

Zach's comments seemed confident in a decent delivery step up from 17.5k in Q3 however Panasonic said they expect their Japan cylindrical cell business to continue trending down in Q4 while European sales are down 31% QoQ in October and November at 1.4k.

Tesla reported S&X production capacity of 90k at Q3, suggesting 22.5k per quarter. Presumably this is the constraint on cell supply from Japan now they are at 100kwh average pack size and not the actual current production rate. I think it would be hard to increase production much from the 16.3k in Q3 without adding back a second shift (which we haven't heard about) or without Panasonic noting an improvement in Q4.

That said, S&X configuration delivery estimates moved to 2020 at a similar time to 3 in most markets.
Also, the low S&X Oct & Nov deliveries in Europe could just be because they still haven't had a chance to build up inventory in Europe after introducing Raven (and discounting and clearing all the old stock). Plus it takes longer to get S&X to customers relative to Model 3 because it travels a slower and longer route via assembly in Tilburg.

I'm on 17k production and 18k deliveries currently, leaving 6.5k inventory at the end of Q. I can see them beating on deliveries up to c.20k through further inventory reduction.
 
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#3,002
But Panasonic says "Profit dropped due to the sales decrease for non-North America customers" under Japan factories
upload_2019-12-13_10-5-33.png
 

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#3,003
kengchang said:
But Panasonic says "Profit dropped due to the sales decrease for non-North America customers" under Japan factories
View attachment 487898
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I saw that in their ppt, but we know its not true. Nearly all Panasonic's cylindrical battery business is to Tesla, and we know that S&X cell demand is down significantly in 9M19 even with the higher average battery pack size. I guess they just got confused or made a typo, maybe in translation.

I also thought the Kaizuka battery lines had been idled for years and the factory was just making solar cells for Tesla now.
 
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#3,004
ReflexFunds said:
I saw that in their ppt, but we know its not true. Nearly all Panasonic's cylindrical battery business is to Tesla, and we know that S&X cell demand is down significantly in 9M19 even with the higher average battery pack size. I guess they just got confused or made a typo, maybe in translation.

I also thought the Kaizuka battery lines had been idled for years and the factory was just making solar cells for Tesla now.
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Japanese are not known to make mistake :rolleyes::rolleyes: guess we'll see in three weeks
 
#3,008
ReflexFunds said:
S&X is confusing to me, I can't settle on a good estimate for Q4.

Zach's comments seemed confident in a decent delivery step up from 17.5k in Q3 however Panasonic said they expect their Japan cylindrical cell business to continue trending down in Q4 while European sales are down 31% QoQ in October and November at 1.4k.

Tesla reported S&X production capacity of 90k at Q3, suggesting 22.5k per quarter. Presumably this is the constraint on cell supply from Japan now they are at 100kwh average pack size and not the actual current production rate. I think it would be hard to increase production much from the 16.3k in Q3 without adding back a second shift (which we haven't heard about) or without Panasonic noting an improvement in Q4.

That said, S&X configuration delivery estimates moved to 2020 at a similar time to 3 in most markets.
Also, the low S&X Oct & Nov deliveries in Europe could just be because they still haven't had a chance to build up inventory in Europe after introducing Raven (and discounting and clearing all the old stock). Plus it takes longer to get S&X to customers relative to Model 3 because it travels a slower and longer route via assembly in Tilburg.

I'm on 17k production and 18k deliveries currently, leaving 6.5k inventory at the end of Q. I can see them beating on deliveries up to c.20k through further inventory reduction.
Click to expand...
I may be repeating myself, but S/X were never the right size for Europe. Now that 3 is available and Y is on the horizon, these aren't only less expensive by a lot, but they also fit better into our streets and parking spaces.

People weren't necessarily buying ~30k of them per year because they wanted something the size of an aircraft carrier, but because they had favorable EV taxes/incentives and these were clearly the best EVs to date.

Now, I am not saying an internal/external refresh would not create a spike in demand, but I don't think we will see those 2017-2018 numbers again.
 
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#3,009
ReflexFunds said:
S&X is confusing to me, I can't settle on a good estimate for Q4.

Zach's comments seemed confident in a decent delivery step up from 17.5k in Q3 however Panasonic said they expect their Japan cylindrical cell business to continue trending down in Q4 while European sales are down 31% QoQ in October and November at 1.4k.

Tesla reported S&X production capacity of 90k at Q3, suggesting 22.5k per quarter. Presumably this is the constraint on cell supply from Japan now they are at 100kwh average pack size and not the actual current production rate. I think it would be hard to increase production much from the 16.3k in Q3 without adding back a second shift (which we haven't heard about) or without Panasonic noting an improvement in Q4.

That said, S&X configuration delivery estimates moved to 2020 at a similar time to 3 in most markets.
Also, the low S&X Oct & Nov deliveries in Europe could just be because they still haven't had a chance to build up inventory in Europe after introducing Raven (and discounting and clearing all the old stock). Plus it takes longer to get S&X to customers relative to Model 3 because it travels a slower and longer route via assembly in Tilburg.

I'm on 17k production and 18k deliveries currently, leaving 6.5k inventory at the end of Q. I can see them beating on deliveries up to c.20k through further inventory reduction.
Click to expand...
I believe that the cutoff date for 2019 delivery in custom orders were determined by Tesla's ability to custom make specific configuration and deliver them to certain locations. I.e. not all cars currently made or in transit have been sold yet. But new order customers are limited to configurations available at their local delivery operation.
"California orders placed today will be available for delivery by 12/31. For customers ordering from the rest of the US and looking to take delivery by the end of the year, visit a store or view available inventory."

But the price increase in lower end Model 3 indicate a.) that Tesla has high confidence that will sell most of these yet unsold cars this year. The price increase also serves the purpose of slightly increasing revenue, profit, and gross margin. An additional benefit of price increase is that they can reverse it in 2020 decreasing the psychological effect of the incentive dropoff. People really do not like to buy items that were on sale last week even if they like the stuff and the price.

Current available inventory in my Northeaster USA area is virtually non existent for Model 3, very limited for Model S. There are large number of test drive cars. It seems that test drives will not be offered for the rest of the year. Most of the sales stuff will work on deliveries.
 
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#3,010
gerebgraus said:
I believe that the cutoff date for 2019 delivery in custom orders were determined by Tesla's ability to custom make specific configuration and deliver them to certain locations. I.e. not all cars currently made or in transit have been sold yet. But new order customers are limited to configurations available at their local delivery operation.
"California orders placed today will be available for delivery by 12/31. For customers ordering from the rest of the US and looking to take delivery by the end of the year, visit a store or view available inventory."

But the price increase in lower end Model 3 indicate a.) that Tesla has high confidence that will sell most of these yet unsold cars this year. The price increase also serves the purpose of slightly increasing revenue, profit, and gross margin. An additional benefit of price increase is that they can reverse it in 2020 decreasing the psychological effect of the incentive dropoff. People really do not like to buy items that were on sale last week even if they like the stuff and the price.

Current available inventory in my Northeaster USA area is virtually non existent for Model 3, very limited for Model S. There are large number of test drive cars. It seems that test drives will not be offered for the rest of the year. Most of the sales stuff will work on deliveries.
Click to expand...

Tesla doesn't manufacture to custom order anymore. Maybe they do for Performance S and X given the larger number of interior options.

There are only around 30 Tesla hardware combinations for each car excluding tyres. My impression is that they estimate the demand for each car and each option in each region early in the quarter and decide a production allocation. This estimate is based both off their current order book and their forecast for future orders. They then ship these cars to local transit hubs and then on to delivery centres. Somewhere in this process the car gets allocated to a customer, but it varies a lot and the allocation may not happen until the car is at a delivery centre even if the customer ordered months ago.

I think Tesla changes the estimated delivery date on the configurator for each country for each Model (LR, P etc) at the point where there are no longer the full 10-15 car variations for each Model within reach of every delivery centre in the country within that timeframe.

Given Tesla has so few variants and the ability to redirect inventory from regional hubs, they are likely very low on inventory in the entire country when they pass this point. But there will still be some regions with a full choice of cars and some with a partial selection.
 
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#3,012
ReflexFunds said:
Tesla doesn't manufacture to custom order anymore. Maybe they do for Performance S and X given the larger number of interior options.

There are only around 30 Tesla hardware combinations for each car excluding tyres. My impression is that they estimate the demand for each car and each option in each region early in the quarter and decide a production allocation. This estimate is based both off their current order book and their forecast for future orders. They then ship these cars to local transit hubs and then on to delivery centres. Somewhere in this process the car gets allocated to a customer, but it varies a lot and the allocation may not happen until the car is at a delivery centre even if the customer ordered months ago.

I think Tesla changes the estimated delivery date on the configurator for each country for each Model (LR, P etc) at the point where there are no longer the full 10-15 car variations for each Model within reach of every delivery centre in the country within that timeframe.

Given Tesla has so few variants and the ability to redirect inventory from regional hubs, they are likely very low on inventory in the entire country when they pass this point. But there will still be some regions with a full choice of cars and some with a partial selection.
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What I meant is that when Tesla produces all existing orders for the targeted sales location and then they estimate the demand for each configuration for the production of yet unsold cars. Otherwise, we are in complete agreement.
 
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#3,013
gerebgraus said:
What I meant is that when Tesla produces all existing orders for the targeted sales location and then they estimate the demand for each configuration for the production of yet unsold cars. Otherwise, we are in complete agreement.
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Addendum: There is a supply constraint, so yet unsold cars are in average higher priced than the average demand. E.g. Boats in Europe arrived and lots of Model 3 inventory showing up. In Netherland, you can buy now whatever Model 3 configuration you want. Assuming you want a pearl white performance model, there are ~50 of those. Nothing else. As we know Tesla makes a lot of mistakes. They are very good at learning from their mistakes and fixing at the next iteration. This is clearly one mistake. Inventory in Norway includes standard range plus models as well.
 
#3,014
gerebgraus said:
Addendum: There is a supply constraint, so yet unsold cars are in average higher priced than the average demand. E.g. Boats in Europe arrived and lots of Model 3 inventory showing up. In Netherland, you can buy now whatever Model 3 configuration you want. Assuming you want a pearl white performance model, there are ~50 of those. Nothing else. As we know Tesla makes a lot of mistakes. They are very good at learning from their mistakes and fixing at the next iteration. This is clearly one mistake. Inventory in Norway includes standard range plus models as well.
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Fifteen days left to sell 50 white Ps. Just over 3/day. How many cars per day are they selling in NL? Maybe this is not a mistake... maybe it's good prediction software.
 
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#3,015
gerebgraus said:
Addendum: There is a supply constraint, so yet unsold cars are in average higher priced than the average demand. E.g. Boats in Europe arrived and lots of Model 3 inventory showing up. In Netherland, you can buy now whatever Model 3 configuration you want. Assuming you want a pearl white performance model, there are ~50 of those. Nothing else. As we know Tesla makes a lot of mistakes. They are very good at learning from their mistakes and fixing at the next iteration. This is clearly one mistake. Inventory in Norway includes standard range plus models as well.
Click to expand...
They may have a standing backup order from NL leasing companies to buy what they don't sell. Also, inventory listed in Norway may not physically be in Norway. At least not yet. VINs that don't get matched in the next week or so could be re-directed.
 
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