Just a quick follow-up to point out that so far the EU's "retaliatory" response to the IRA has been to propose subsidies to bolster the local clean energy industry, rather than "cut off its nose to spite its face" by imposing tariffs on clean energy products it desperately needs.
Germany and France seek to match US green industry subsidies
Tesla would be a huge winner if a "subsidy war" breaks out and it applies to stationary storage (which is not clear yet -- examples of clean energy technology mentioned in the French-German manifesto on the topic linked above are solar, wind, heat pumps and hydrogen). Tesla is already highly likely to build one or more Megapack factories in Europe and if Europe boosts subsidies for local production that should, if anything, accelerate their plans.
Also, there was some concern expressed that pricing estimates on tesla.com might not reflect negotiated prices with customers, which are often not public. One tidbit that did recently become public is that Tesla RAISED prices significantly on several large projects with PG&E that were in the pipeline.
'Unprecedented market conditions' force PG&E to up price on 2GWh of battery storage contracts (at least the 1.2 GWh Nighthawk and 200 MWh Strata projects will use Megapacks according to other reports).
Based on this, I think a reasonable starting point is to assume that the first major Megapack price hike posted to the website in March 2022 -- from $328/kWh to $412/kWh for a 10 Megapack system (26%) -- will start showing up in financials in a major way in Q1 2023, the first available delivery date at that time.
Tesla hikes Megapack prices as backlog extends to next year The full effect likely won't be seen until a little later as not every project completed with revenue recognized in Q1 will have this pricing.
A reasonable starting for the second major price hike (described here:
Near-future quarterly financial projections) is to assume that it will start showing up in financials in a major way in Q2 2024, the first estimated delivery date with the new pricing.
Tesla Increases Megapack Energy Capacity by 50%, Size and Weight Grows - TeslaNorth.com
It's possible Tesla negotiated for higher prices before they updated the website estimates, but given the escalating price and cost environment and growing backlog of orders it seems unlikely that pricing was materially LOWER than on the website, except for projects where installation was delayed for some reason after contract.
tl;dr we should start seeing significant increases in Megapack $/kWh in Q1 2023 and by the end of 2024 average Megapack price per kWh is likely to increase by over 60%.