BYD sales have historically been half hybrid. Hybrid incentive goes away at the end of the year in China.
BYD NEV sales were historically 80% BEV. Starting around 2021 their PHEV sales began ramping at ridiculous rates, so they're now roughly 50/50.
I struggle to keep track of China's crazy quilt of incentives, but Tesla's main ordering page says cars delivered after 12/31 will not receive the federal subsidy. So that one at least seems to apply to BEV and PHEV alike.
As
@Singuy mentioned, Tesla was cranking out the cars for export, see Wu Wa's videos from Dec 22.
https://m.youtube.com/channel/UCxAmZPvFRAc7Bvqhig57mNQ
Yes. When production outruns domestic demand you produce for export. Tesla did that last week, then stopped production altogether for 10 days. They will halt production again on 1/19 for Lunar New Year.
Tesla actually increased the price of cars sold in China from Nov to Dec by halving the insurance discount.
But they added an additional ¥6000 discount in early December, which more than offset that.
I know Shanghai will seize to allow PHEV plates to be part of the NEV plate allocation starting 2023 which will just destroy sales.
So BYD will only sell BEVs there. Shanghai has a couple percent of China's population. The local gov't favors the home team (Tesla, Nio, etc.). I seem to recall them also moving against Hongguang Minis when those started selling like hotcakes a couple years ago. I imagine Shenzhen has rules that favor BYD over Tesla. These kind of "trade wars" are usually a net negative for everyone, except the bureaucrats.
This is what I don't get. There is basically no inventory in the US. It seems EU is very light on inventory too. If China doesn't have any cars for sale until Jan (i.e. no inventory).
If China had no cars the order page wouldn't say:
"Orders delivered before December 31, 2022 can enjoy multiple discounts such as new energy vehicle subsidies, point rewards, and insurance subsidies. Find out about limited-time offers in December"
The link takes you to a list of four incentives (one gov't subsidy and three from Tesla) if you take delivery by 12/31.
How do we not hit 450k+ deliveries? If you take conservative production (F:145k + A/B:55k + S:235k = 435k), and have little-to-no inventory, you have to be at 450k deliveries at least right? There were 20k in transit in Q3.
I do see a little upside in Europe. But how many of those cars at the Shanghai dock will be delivered by 12/31? And where is the rest of that 235k Shanghai production?
Tesla never shows all their inventory. And they have an extremely strong incentive to hold US cars off the market this month and sell them with $7500 of extra margin in January. It's a balancing act, of course, they don't want inventory to grow dramatically. But the market understands the reason to delay deliveries, especially if Tesla says January will break all known records.
