EVNow
Well-Known Member
That is not a presumption - that is an actual fact. Except - Tesla has already cut prices to stimulate demand. So - presumably with ads they can increase the price.
Sure .... "illogical", if you insist?
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Near-future quarterly financial projections
- Thread starter luvb2b
- Start date
Sure .... "illogical", if you insist?
damonbrodie
Member
I'm taking a closer look at the China Model 3 ASP. Right now the Model 3 RWD is selling for:
China has a 13% effective VAT:
231900 * .13 = 30147
231900-30147 = 201753 < Revenue in Yuan for Tesla
Converting that into USD:
$28512 USD. According to @Troy model the COGS for the Model 3 Standard Range was $29768 in Q1 (and for several Q's previous).
Am I doing the calculations correctly?
China has a 13% effective VAT:
231900 * .13 = 30147
231900-30147 = 201753 < Revenue in Yuan for Tesla
Converting that into USD:
$28512 USD. According to @Troy model the COGS for the Model 3 Standard Range was $29768 in Q1 (and for several Q's previous).
Am I doing the calculations correctly?
khorton
Member
Your math is a bit off, unless I completely misunderstand how VAT works.
The VAT would be 13% of the price before tax. So, the list price = 1.13 * base price. Or, base price = list price / 1.13
So, 231900 / 1.13 = 205221 Revenue in Yuan for Tesla
I think there is no VAT for NEVs in China, only subsidies are gone from January
Doggydogworld
Active Member
The Vehicle Purchase Tax is a separate ~10% VAT-style tax on vehicles. NEVs have been exempt for as long as I can remember. The exemption is always slated to end soon, but keeps getting extended.
Plain old VAT applies to NEVs as well as ICE. I think it used to be 15% but was reduced to 13% several years ago.
damonbrodie
Member
Hi everyone,
I'm now tracking the Tesla vehicle prices across 10 different currencies and just in the two weeks I've been collecting daily price data, the effective price after currency conversion has declined somewhat:
docs.google.com
I'm now tracking the Tesla vehicle prices across 10 different currencies and just in the two weeks I've been collecting daily price data, the effective price after currency conversion has declined somewhat:
Tesla Price Survey - Example
README Tesla Price Survey <a href="https://www.patreon.com/DamonBrodie">www.patreon.com/DamonBrodie</a> What data is collected: - Retail price models: S, 3, X, Y with each of their trims (10 variants total) - Across 11 Countries - Paint, wheel, etc options for the above (31 total options are ava...
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Is that due to dollar strengthening against other currencies ? In general the forex fluctuations shouldn’t matter since Tesla uses constant dollars for book keeping, IIRC. But overall quarter over quarter matters.Hi everyone,
I'm now tracking the Tesla vehicle prices across 10 different currencies and just in the two weeks I've been collecting daily price data, the effective price after currency conversion has declined somewhat:
View attachment 942801
Tesla Price Survey - Example
README Tesla Price Survey <a href="https://www.patreon.com/DamonBrodie">www.patreon.com/DamonBrodie</a> What data is collected: - Retail price models: S, 3, X, Y with each of their trims (10 variants total) - Across 11 Countries - Paint, wheel, etc options for the above (31 total options are ava...
damonbrodie
Member
For the IRA battery credits in the US:
- Do the cells and packs have to be sold to US customers for Tesla to receive the credit? What about cells and packs made in the US but sold in Canada/Mexico?
- Are the credits now in effect?
- Are all the cells and packs for the Model 3 and Y for vehicles made in Fremont and Austin eligible?
- I think the S and X have cells made in Asia, but the packs should qualify, right?
Last edited:
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
Can I throw an additional question in. What credits will Tesla (or consumer) receive for a Mexico built car sold in US (with US and Mexico batteries)?
From memory...
References:
https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/5376
Federal Register :: Request Access
Cell and module manufacturing in the US gets credits (advanced manufacturing production credits)
Vehicles with final assembly in North America sold to US residents get credits (clean vehicle credit).
Vehicles leased in the US get credits (commercial vehicle credit).
1. No, also no
2. Yes, but the required percentages change each year and point of sale rebate kicks in next year
3. Yes
4. Japan is a free trade partner, but that's more important for critical materials. Module assembly in the US gets credits.
Mexico batteries: no credit
Mexico built car: up to $7,500 at sale to consumer, if critical mineral and component criteria are satisfied. $7,500 to leasing company, if leased.
References:
https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/5376
Federal Register :: Request Access
Cell and module manufacturing in the US gets credits (advanced manufacturing production credits)
Vehicles with final assembly in North America sold to US residents get credits (clean vehicle credit).
Vehicles leased in the US get credits (commercial vehicle credit).
1. No, also no
2. Yes, but the required percentages change each year and point of sale rebate kicks in next year
3. Yes
4. Japan is a free trade partner, but that's more important for critical materials. Module assembly in the US gets credits.
US batteries: manufacturing credit to Tesla based for cells and modules
Mexico batteries: no credit
Mexico built car: up to $7,500 at sale to consumer, if critical mineral and component criteria are satisfied. $7,500 to leasing company, if leased.
damonbrodie
Member
Hi
Thanks for your insight. does this make sense then for the IRA credits that Tesla would get for each vehicle USA produced vehicle in Q2?
Hi Mongo,
Thanks for your insight. does this make sense then for the IRA credits that Tesla would get for each vehicle USA produced vehicle in Q2?
Tesla isn't making much in the way of cells currently (only 4680 version of the Y).
Panasonic in Sparks said they get the credit for that production (may pass along a portion).
Imported Panasonic, BYD, and CATL cells get zero credits.
Cylindrical packs assembled in the US get the module credit.
Imported LFP modules get no credits.
Only structural pack 4680 Y's get direct cell credit to Tesla.
I don't think 3 RWD with LFP would get module credit.
There are also manufacturing credits for materials used...
damonbrodie
Member
Q2 delivery predictions
Just over 3 weeks left in the quarter. Here are the quarterly delivery forecasts so far:
James' prediction is quite high. He takes a more analytical "what could be" approach.
Troy's estimate has been drifting up towards the WS estimate. Troy started the Q at 429K vs. WS at 444K. Projecting forward and they might converge together at roughly 450K.
Last quarter Rob Maurer got the closest estimate. We'll see who gets closest as we get closer to P&D day on the 2nd.
Assuming 450K for Q2 and adding in 422.9K from Q1 and that would be 832.9K for H1. 48.5% of the Tesla 2023 forecast. Highland production pauses for the M3 in Q3 will weigh against the continued ramping in Berlin and Austin.
Just over 3 weeks left in the quarter. Here are the quarterly delivery forecasts so far:
| Source | Prediction |
|---|---|
| Troy Teslike (last public post) | 439K |
| James Stephenson | 520K |
| Wall Street | 447K |
Troy's estimate has been drifting up towards the WS estimate. Troy started the Q at 429K vs. WS at 444K. Projecting forward and they might converge together at roughly 450K.
Last quarter Rob Maurer got the closest estimate. We'll see who gets closest as we get closer to P&D day on the 2nd.
Assuming 450K for Q2 and adding in 422.9K from Q1 and that would be 832.9K for H1. 48.5% of the Tesla 2023 forecast. Highland production pauses for the M3 in Q3 will weigh against the continued ramping in Berlin and Austin.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
James needs to stop putting these outlandishly high forecasts out there. It's a bit embarrassing...
Or an 8,300/week increase. I can see about half that being obvious looking at published ramp data points. (470k) Berlin seems to be closing in on 6k/week, which makes a 5k/week increase possible between Austin and Berlin. (480k) I can't imagine how they would get over a 6k/week increase though, or ~490k.
petit_bateau
Active Member
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Has been doing it for years, seems unlikely he'd stop now?
I actually just dug up an old email I'd sent to a friend convinced of James predictions a few years ago and my explaining how ridiculous they were... His mid-2020 forcast for 2021 had 2500 Semis in Q1 2021, 9100 in Q2....and Cybertruck shipping over 26k units back half of 2021, at a time Elon had already said they'd be lucky to start production at all that year. He also had Austin making over 15k Model Y first half of 2021 and over 26-30k in Q3/Q4 2021 when it was clear Q3 was soonest production would possibly start....
He had Berlin making similar numbers, again multiple quarters before production start was expected (or occurred)
Most hilariously he had a new compact model selling over 4000 cars in China Q4 2021 when Tesla hadn't even announced it as a product, and Tesla was just starting hiring for a design studio there.
His overall 2021 prediction in June 2020 had production hundreds of thousands of vehicles higher than the actual result.
When he updated it June 2021 (still only forecasting out to end of 2021 weirdly when previously he'd been going 18 months out) he'd dialed the total back by about 200k- but still (in mid 2021) had both Semi and CT production happening in Q4 of same year.
He's also been saying Tesla would take their carried losses to bump quarterly $ just about every quarter for like 3 years now and been wrong every time.
Like- he puts in a lot of work- clearly- certainly way more than I do... but keeps being pretty wildly wrong to the optimistic side.
Does anyone keep track of the trends in COGS over the last few quarters? Wonder how much COGS per unit has improved since Q1. The $3k-$4k average price cut was pretty huge, and I doubt any COGS improvement would be able to make up for this, but I don't know what would be reasonable.
I tried to look at it a while back, but it was too obscured between the different factories and their ramp status, as well as different models, along with solar/energy, to give much insight
Lately, COGS up, Revenue down = gross margin down... but that is pretty useless at divining a real trend.
I'm not certain, but I think some of the improvements in output really show up more on the operating side rather than the COGS side as volume increases.
The Accountant
Active Member
COGS per vehicle dropped from $39.6k to $38.6k (Q4 '22 to Q1 '23) driven by efficiencies in Berlin & Austin as well as favorable Yuan to US$ exchange rates.
As you can see, there was a larger drop in average selling price per car.
We should see COGS per vehicle drop in each quarter in 2023. I will pop in numbers for Q2 when they get published.
Numbers below excluded operating leased vehicles.
