So we just concluded a charity bet on when the first tenth Falcon 9 reuse would occur. @e-FTW won.
Let's keep going and do another bet. This time, the next relatively near term big event will be Starship achieving orbit. To do this, SpaceX will have to use a Super Heavy. They've already built a pathfinder. Presumably the next Super Heavy will attempt a launch? With or without a Starship on top of it? My guess is that the first Super Heavy launch will just have a mass simulator on top ... or something like SN15 as a mass simulator. So then the question is whether an engineering prototype of something that isn't expected to land will qualify as Starship achieving orbit.
Hmmm ... thinking out loud again, any kind of Starship is not going to be demisable. That hunk of stainless steel isn't going to completely burn up, which would result in quite the re-entry event. If I'm correct, then SpaceX will only loft up a real Starship that has a chance of a controlled re-entry, if not even a landing.
Note that re-entry is a whole 'nother engineering challenge for Starship. Lots of failures are expected there, and I suspect the first many re-entry attempts will be soft ocean landings. Or at the most, landing on one of their ex-oil ocean rigs.
Oh, and that brings up another possible bet. Super Heavys are all expected to be re-usable. So, a bet could be first re-use of a Super Heavy.
And, since predicting the future is hard, SpaceX could throw us a curveball and the first orbital Starship might actually be designed to be a tanker, and it will be intentionally left in orbit.
Discuss!
Let's keep going and do another bet. This time, the next relatively near term big event will be Starship achieving orbit. To do this, SpaceX will have to use a Super Heavy. They've already built a pathfinder. Presumably the next Super Heavy will attempt a launch? With or without a Starship on top of it? My guess is that the first Super Heavy launch will just have a mass simulator on top ... or something like SN15 as a mass simulator. So then the question is whether an engineering prototype of something that isn't expected to land will qualify as Starship achieving orbit.
Hmmm ... thinking out loud again, any kind of Starship is not going to be demisable. That hunk of stainless steel isn't going to completely burn up, which would result in quite the re-entry event. If I'm correct, then SpaceX will only loft up a real Starship that has a chance of a controlled re-entry, if not even a landing.
Note that re-entry is a whole 'nother engineering challenge for Starship. Lots of failures are expected there, and I suspect the first many re-entry attempts will be soft ocean landings. Or at the most, landing on one of their ex-oil ocean rigs.
Oh, and that brings up another possible bet. Super Heavys are all expected to be re-usable. So, a bet could be first re-use of a Super Heavy.
And, since predicting the future is hard, SpaceX could throw us a curveball and the first orbital Starship might actually be designed to be a tanker, and it will be intentionally left in orbit.
Discuss!