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Newbie Options Trading

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Just cause I haven't lost money in options yet doesn't mean I haven't lost it elsewhere. If we're smart, we transfer those lessons across disciplines. Those options were in the red 4 days ago and I was prepared to go down with them. However, I didn't buy them to make 1.2%, I took a calculated risk that the 180s right after NAIAS represented a collective letdown that Jerome Guillen hadn't proclaimed 'reckless growth' again. Learning with way less than 1% of available capital. I appreciate the advice and especially calling me 'kid'. Not bragging, just sharing. Not buying any options today, but watching all the others I own and deciphering exit strategies.

This is the Newbie thread, gotta play the part!
 
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I think it was more of a reference to Star Wars, haha!

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But in any case, I didn't take it as bragging... although it is ok to brag a little bit. I think we were both just trying to help impart our experiences of letting it get to our head and then making stupid trading mistakes.
 
I think it was more of a reference to Star Wars, haha!

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But in any case, I didn't take it as bragging... although it is ok to brag a little bit. I think we were both just trying to help impart our experiences of letting it get to our head and then making stupid trading mistakes.

Correct, on both the star wars reference and the stupid trading mistakes, which I somehow keep making...
 
Sold the other half of my Feb 13s today, now on to Feb 20s. Feb 13s were bought as a bet on a run up to earnings report after NAIAS hangover. Feb 20s were bought half for that and half to catch the frenzy that might come out of a great earnings call. I'm thinking of selling half the Feb 20s Thursday or Friday on any 1-2 hour, $2-$4 run up and then holding the other half until after 2/11 to just see what comes out of the call. Thoughts?
 
Sold the other half of my Feb 13s today, now on to Feb 20s. Feb 13s were bought as a bet on a run up to earnings report after NAIAS hangover. Feb 20s were bought half for that and half to catch the frenzy that might come out of a great earnings call. I'm thinking of selling half the Feb 20s Thursday or Friday on any 1-2 hour, $2-$4 run up and then holding the other half until after 2/11 to just see what comes out of the call. Thoughts?

Something you may or may not be aware of it the IV crush after ER. If you are making an ER play you need to be betting on either an outstanding beat or a devistating miss, otherwise you won't make up for the collapse of the price in the first minutes of trading. (For example if an option price is 6$ on Wed at close, expect it to open at 2$ on Thursday... assuming the shareprice opens at the same closing price.) What this means to combat that hypothetical 4$ drop in option price you need the price to jump up by *at least* 4$ just to break even assuming this was an ITM call. The math gets far more tricky when dealing with OTM calls (or puts) since you are technically in 100$ extrinsic value.

So hypothetical. The shareprice is 220$ at close and you have a call for 230 with the price at close being 4$ on a Feb 20 option (just making up numbers at this point for the example). In this instance, while you still have a week to play with, the market knows that any movement on the underlying price is going to happening mostly in the first 24 hours. Yes you will retain some timevalue on that call since you still have a week, but it is going to get crushed into almost worthlessness if the price stays at 220. With this hypothetical, you would be anticipating within the first 24hours or so for the price to jump up by *at least* 10$ in order for that trade to just hopefully break even. And you are looking at 15$ movement to even begin to think about it being decently profitable.

The farther out you go from the ER date the less the crush will affect you. But as I found out the last ER even though I still have about 40 days on my December calls they still experienced heavy crush after the ER to the point where they basically became breakeven, and then at that, I continued to hold them (which of course the price dropped shortly thereafter) and they ended up worthless. This was my fault... totally bad decisions all around. But just be aware of what you are actually betting on with an ER play.

If you would like to experience it first hand... because seeing is believing... Risk an insignificant amount of money... like... 1 call (or 1 put if anticipating going down). Straddles are out of the question, you basically have to bet on a direction and stick with it.

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Opinions on holding a $225 Feb 15 call through earnings?

My advice also applies to you as well. Feel free to learn first hand what holding through ER looks like. But if this is your first ER... expect to lose every penny.

PS: It is funny, because other people were trying to tell me this and I only partially listened and suffered the consequences... Trust me... you can't game the ER system. You are more likely to make money buying real shares than betting on futures.
 
Something you may or may not be aware of it the IV crush after ER. If you are making an ER play you need to be betting on either an outstanding beat or a devistating miss, otherwise you won't make up for the collapse of the price in the first minutes of trading. (For example if an option price is 6$ on Wed at close, expect it to open at 2$ on Thursday... assuming the shareprice opens at the same closing price.) What this means to combat that hypothetical 4$ drop in option price you need the price to jump up by *at least* 4$ just to break even assuming this was an ITM call. The math gets far more tricky when dealing with OTM calls (or puts) since you are technically in 100$ extrinsic value.

So hypothetical. The shareprice is 220$ at close and you have a call for 230 with the price at close being 4$ on a Feb 20 option (just making up numbers at this point for the example). In this instance, while you still have a week to play with, the market knows that any movement on the underlying price is going to happening mostly in the first 24 hours. Yes you will retain some timevalue on that call since you still have a week, but it is going to get crushed into almost worthlessness if the price stays at 220. With this hypothetical, you would be anticipating within the first 24hours or so for the price to jump up by *at least* 10$ in order for that trade to just hopefully break even. And you are looking at 15$ movement to even begin to think about it being decently profitable.

The farther out you go from the ER date the less the crush will affect you. But as I found out the last ER even though I still have about 40 days on my December calls they still experienced heavy crush after the ER to the point where they basically became breakeven, and then at that, I continued to hold them (which of course the price dropped shortly thereafter) and they ended up worthless. This was my fault... totally bad decisions all around. But just be aware of what you are actually betting on with an ER play.

If you would like to experience it first hand... because seeing is believing... Risk an insignificant amount of money... like... 1 call (or 1 put if anticipating going down). Straddles are out of the question, you basically have to bet on a direction and stick with it.

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My advice also applies to you as well. Feel free to learn first hand what holding through ER looks like. But if this is your first ER... expect to lose every penny.

PS: It is funny, because other people were trying to tell me this and I only partially listened and suffered the consequences... Trust me... you can't game the ER system. You are more likely to make money buying real shares than betting on futures.

Thank you for that. I just decided to take a nice gain and watch what happens and use it as a learning experience.
 
Thank you for that. I just decided to take a nice gain and watch what happens and use it as a learning experience.

Particularly pay attention to the option prices between 4PM on Wed and 9:30 AM on Thurs, because as soon as the market opens you will immediately see all the options just dump 50% or more of their value (unless we gap up some crazy high number)
 
The farther out you go from the ER date the less the crush will affect you. But as I found out the last ER even though I still have about 40 days on my December calls they still experienced heavy crush after the ER to the point where they basically became breakeven, and then at that, I continued to hold them (which of course the price dropped shortly thereafter) and they ended up worthless. This was my fault... totally bad decisions all around. But just be aware of what you are actually betting on with an ER play.

So, it follows that holding March calls through ER would be equivalent to your December experience, unless we expect a big report?
 
So, it follows that holding March calls through ER would be equivalent to your December experience, unless we expect a big report?

I would anticipate a similar result, yes. Again, you could totally win that game if the price moves sharply, but I for one am as of today out of all my options for the moment and likely to stay that way (assuming I can actually force myself to not buy... it is weird just sitting on cash... must. resist. compulsion. to. buy!) until after the ER. If I do buy something again it will be to sell them off sometime before Wed. But I am trying to behave this time around... we will see how successful I am at that. Haha!

Just to give some real perspective right now. The options that are set to expire next Friday (immediately after ER) are already pricing in a 9$ swing (up or down). If you do not think the stock is going to move by far more than 9$ because of the news on the ER I would not hold anything past Wed.

The following week (the Feb monthlies) only have a 1$ premium on the ATM options over top of the Feb 13 weeklies. So that should tell you something right there, that the market currently believes in a 9$ movement (or more) on Wed and then only a 1$ movement over the following ~7 trading days.

The March ATM is at 12.45 right now. You do the math... Those are going to get crushed hard come Thurs... by the same ~9$ amount.

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Although, if you have the cash, one option is to buy deep ITM on the direction you want to play. For example Feb 13 weeklies, if you buy in at the 200 strike you are only paying a ~2$ time value on this contract. Meaning the price only needs to move by 2$ for you to make your money back on expiration (so assume that 2$ gets crushed in the first minutes of Thursday, we are still likely to move by at least that amount). The benefit of forking out 2,400$ to get just one call is that it is still cheaper than buying 100 shares outright, so you still get leverage while being *very* conservative. You just need the capital to be able able to buy in (albeit far less capital than 22k for the same 100 shares of leverage.)
 
I would anticipate a similar result, yes. Again, you could totally win that game if the price moves sharply, but I for one am as of today out of all my options for the moment and likely to stay that way (assuming I can actually force myself to not buy... it is weird just sitting on cash... must. resist. compulsion. to. buy!) until after the ER. If I do buy something again it will be to sell them off sometime before Wed. But I am trying to behave this time around... we will see how successful I am at that. Haha!

Just to give some real perspective right now. The options that are set to expire next Friday (immediately after ER) are already pricing in a 9$ swing (up or down). If you do not think the stock is going to move by far more than 9$ because of the news on the ER I would not hold anything past Wed.

The following week (the Feb monthlies) only have a 1$ premium on the ATM options over top of the Feb 13 weeklies. So that should tell you something right there, that the market currently believes in a 9$ movement (or more) on Wed and then only a 1$ movement over the following ~7 trading days.

The March ATM is at 12.45 right now. You do the math... Those are going to get crushed hard come Thurs... by the same ~9$ amount.

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Although, if you have the cash, one option is to buy deep ITM on the direction you want to play. For example Feb 13 weeklies, if you buy in at the 200 strike you are only paying a ~2$ time value on this contract. Meaning the price only needs to move by 2$ for you to make your money back on expiration (so assume that 2$ gets crushed in the first minutes of Thursday, we are still likely to move by at least that amount). The benefit of forking out 2,400$ to get just one call is that it is still cheaper than buying 100 shares outright, so you still get leverage while being *very* conservative. You just need the capital to be able able to buy in (albeit far less capital than 22k for the same 100 shares of leverage.)

Good summary on IV crush.....To add to the point.....The same applies if you are of the mind to buy 'protective puts'. In that scenario you have stock and some March or later calls. If you have a feeling that the stock will move BIG at ER then you could (not saying you should:biggrin:) buy some puts at about 180-200 strikes. If the stock jumps $15 up your puts are worthless but you committed a small amount and made lots of 'paper profit' on your stock/calls. If the price drops $15, it mitigates some of your paper loss as the puts now have made you a couple bucks.
 
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Well after much up and down today it finally kicked my stop loss again... Hrmmm I am not going to complain simply because I made some money and we closed down at 203 instead of up near the high of 207. I would have swollowed the 207 pill if I had to, but I think today's rollercoaster was confirmation to stick to my plans because there was a couple times today I was on the fence about canceling the OCO so it wouldn't trigger. If I had let emotion get the better of me I would have to be reporting a totally different story.

More and more I am getting quite happy with my newfound strategy. I had my old March 230 call that I bought at a good time, it ran up in price the last time we were in the 220s (should have sold it off then and didn't) and then became almost worthless, and then thanks to the recent run-up has been slowly gaining its value back till today it turned solidly profitable again for me. Had I had my strategy in place the last time around I would have sold it off then, freed up the capital and been able to turn it around to work for me again elsewhere. Instead it sat, slowly becoming worthless and even after starting work on my "non-emotional" state of mind, I had already written that off as a total loss so wasn't going to care too much what happened to it.

I had bought the thing back in December for 9.65 saw it go decently positive, crash down to under like 2$ at one point, and then slowly but surely pull back out of its depths to when it sold today at 10.47. What I had done once it recovered into the 6$ range was placing trailing stops about 1$ below the then current price, and then every other day as it moved higher I would adjust up the stop loss. My target to sell was 12.55$ I figured if it could hit that I would just make a run for it regardless. We hit 11 something at some point today, but then the price came down, and from the chart you see it came down quite a bit. But my stop trigger having been moved up to 10.50 gave me a sell price of 10.47 so although I never fully realized what I was "hoping" to hit. I did finally turn a profit on it which made me happy enough.

If I was running on the old system, I would have likely let myself think too much about it, be back holding the bag again as that particular call is now worth only 9.47 which would be back in the negative for me, and who knows what tomorrow may actually bring. So forcing myself to take the profit (and 8% return is not great at all, mind you...) as opposed to eating yet another loss is a win in my book.

Sure I have had the big wins as well over the past couple days. It isn't the big wins I have issue controlling myself over... those are no-brainers. I am posting these in the hopes that it helps others out on the less pleasant side of working with options of how to handle (or at least how I am learning to handle) limiting losses and even hopefully booking some amount of profit on every trade. It was hard for me at first to accept anything less than 50% and always shooting for 100% or more... and you are just not going to see those types of returns on every trade. At least I don't... if someone has that magic formula please let me know! And because of that, in my anger of not seeing 50% I was letting options expire to worthlessness instead of cutting my losses (or even booking a small profit)...

So thank you broker for having the OCO order type, because you are my new best friend in the world! Even if you don't want to use the order type for control like I am, I highly recommend you set actual limits on where you are willing to let the price move to and stick to it. I like putting in the exit strategy from the start since I get rather busy at my actual day-job and can't watch the market the whole time. But if you can watch it constantly AND you can force yourself to execute on the sale when a trigger is hit, then I think that is the important takeaway for options. You just don't have the luxury to wait around forever like you can with shares, and, waiting generally hurts more when things start going south... it *rarely* helps. So what I would recommend out of all this is set both a bottom and a top. ALWAYS leave your top fixed. That was your "best case" when you placed the order. Anything outside of that is not accounted for in your plan and you need a new plan (meaning you should execute on a new strategy entirely, whether that is selling some of your position, or starting a new set of calls/puts whatever). Then as the price moves up toward your best case, slowly move up your bottom until either the top is hit or you trigger that bottom value.
 
More and more I am getting quite happy with my newfound strategy. I had my old March 230 call that I bought at a good time, it ran up in price the last time we were in the 220s (should have sold it off then and didn't) and then became almost worthless, and then thanks to the recent run-up has been slowly gaining its value back till today it turned solidly profitable again for me. Had I had my strategy in place the last time around I would have sold it off then, freed up the capital and been able to turn it around to work for me again elsewhere. Instead it sat, slowly becoming worthless and even after starting work on my "non-emotional" state of mind, I had already written that off as a total loss so wasn't going to care too much what happened to it.

I had bought the thing back in December for 9.65 saw it go decently positive, crash down to under like 2$ at one point, and then slowly but surely pull back out of its depths to when it sold today at 10.47. What I had done once it recovered into the 6$ range was placing trailing stops about 1$ below the then current price, and then every other day as it moved higher I would adjust up the stop loss. My target to sell was 12.55$ I figured if it could hit that I would just make a run for it regardless. We hit 11 something at some point today, but then the price came down, and from the chart you see it came down quite a bit. But my stop trigger having been moved up to 10.50 gave me a sell price of 10.47 so although I never fully realized what I was "hoping" to hit. I did finally turn a profit on it which made me happy enough.

If I was running on the old system, I would have likely let myself think too much about it, be back holding the bag again as that particular call is now worth only 9.47 which would be back in the negative for me, and who knows what tomorrow may actually bring. So forcing myself to take the profit (and 8% return is not great at all, mind you...) as opposed to eating yet another loss is a win in my book.

Sure I have had the big wins as well over the past couple days. It isn't the big wins I have issue controlling myself over... those are no-brainers. I am posting these in the hopes that it helps others out on the less pleasant side of working with options of how to handle (or at least how I am learning to handle) limiting losses and even hopefully booking some amount of profit on every trade. It was hard for me at first to accept anything less than 50% and always shooting for 100% or more... and you are just not going to see those types of returns on every trade. At least I don't... if someone has that magic formula please let me know! And because of that, in my anger of not seeing 50% I was letting options expire to worthlessness instead of cutting my losses (or even booking a small profit)...

So thank you broker for having the OCO order type, because you are my new best friend in the world! Even if you don't want to use the order type for control like I am, I highly recommend you set actual limits on where you are willing to let the price move to and stick to it. I like putting in the exit strategy from the start since I get rather busy at my actual day-job and can't watch the market the whole time. But if you can watch it constantly AND you can force yourself to execute on the sale when a trigger is hit, then I think that is the important takeaway for options. You just don't have the luxury to wait around forever like you can with shares, and, waiting generally hurts more when things start going south... it *rarely* helps. So what I would recommend out of all this is set both a bottom and a top. ALWAYS leave your top fixed. That was your "best case" when you placed the order. Anything outside of that is not accounted for in your plan and you need a new plan (meaning you should execute on a new strategy entirely, whether that is selling some of your position, or starting a new set of calls/puts whatever). Then as the price moves up toward your best case, slowly move up your bottom until either the top is hit or you trigger that bottom value.

So you only move your bottom up once every two days or so? What about if the stock is moving fast?

Sorry if you already posted this, have you tried this strategy with weeklies yet? Or do you think that is too risky since they are more thinly traded?
 
So you only move your bottom up once every two days or so? What about if the stock is moving fast?

Sorry if you already posted this, have you tried this strategy with weeklies yet? Or do you think that is too risky since they are more thinly traded?

It was about every 2 days for the 230 call strictly because it was so far out of the money that a single day's move (even with the moves we have been having this week) wasn't enough to get me to move the mark up. Because of the nature of stop orders you want to allow yourself enough room to breath without accidentally triggering it over a blip on the stock chart but you also want to limit your loss (or maximize your gains). So for a mid-term option my safety zone was about 1$ away from the current price (so say 9$ I would put my first stop at 8$), then I would let it go up until some point north of 10$ where I felt like we were comfortably up there (not some random fluke... again, blips happen in both directions) and then I would move up my bottom to match (so 9$). Now I should roughly break even regardless of what happens. As the price climbs to 11$ I would up it to 10$ and so on. It is more of point where I can say to myself, ok, if we pull back now, where would I want to exit. So I think each option chain (weekly, monthly, quarterly, etc) would have a different "safe" amount, and it would probably also vary by the overall mood. I don't think I can give anything more specific than that. So yes, if the stock is moving fast and therefore the option price is moving fast I would make adjustments as necessary. But keep in mind that part of this for me is I am not watching it full time.

I did one weekly under this strategy and it blew through my ceiling and sold off, so I can't speak for the downside. But the spreads on weeklies are not normally as great (pennies as opposed to dimes of separation) so generally when your market order triggers on a stop you take whatever the then bid price is (I mean there is clearly an order sitting there, so it just snatches it up.) I am also not trading in *large* amounts of contracts... so that might also change as I get more bold with this. If you do a market order for 10 contracts on a thinly traded strike you might not like your market order results. Or 100 contracts on a medium volume strike... etc. My contract sizes are generally 5 or less so it hasn't been an issue. The second place were a market order might finally bite me is if the market has a serious gap down. But lets be honest here for a second, if the price is tanking wouldn't you generally *want* to sell quickly? You won't like that your stop trigger is at 8$ and it opens at $7 and you eat that extra 100$ but then, if the price is going to keep going down? You will be happy for that 7$ instead of 5-10 minutes later when it falls to 6.50$ or whatever. Again, you should be setting a value that allows for blips. So a slightly red morning opening won't kick the sale.

Knowing where your strike price is vs the underlying price of the stock and how the price of the contract will move under certain changes in the shareprice should tell you what amount of breathing room you want to go with. Something Deep ITM with no timevalue, you might want to base your limits on something that is more inline with the stockprice itself. So if the stock drops by say 2$ that would push you to sell, so 2$ would be your breathing room. If you are way out of the money, maybe a .50$ move would be too much (since that might equate to a 10$ price change in the stock) and that would be your trigger to sell. I am normally playing anywhere from 1 strike away to 6 strikes away on mid-term contracts so 1$ on the contract price feels comfortable for me.

PS: Sorry this was mostly written from buying calls perspective, you could easily flip all this logic in the other way for if you are trying to play the price going the other direction. So a surprise upside would be your selling triggers.
 
You could also sell some puts and take advantage of the High IV, if you are wanting to get in (shares) at a lower price and the stock drops, you get your wish. If the stock stays flat or jumps up, you get to pocket all the premium from the expensive ER puts. Win Win.

edit: Didn't see something similar was mentioned above, i'm suggesting just selling puts without owning the shares however. Chicken, have you looked at just doing spreads instead of straight calls/puts? I've spent a lot of time over the past year trying to figure out what works best, for now I've settled on selling ATM (ITM) put spreads if i'm bullish and calls for bearish. I buy the first ITM option and sell the next farther one in. You get a credit for this and I can always get better than half the spread in a credit, which means my risk is less than 1-1. The nice thing about this play is I only need a small move (~$5.00 at expiration) to make 100%+ gain on my money. I've been doing these farther out in time as a synthetic stock position. The nice thing about these is I can "dollar cost average" easy. If I set the bullish position and stock tanks on me, I can buy the same number of positions at the lower price. Since i'm getting better than 1-1, I can lose 50% of the time and still eek out a ~10% gain, sometimes a bit more depending on the credit I took in. Take a look at the numbers on this strategy, I like it. To me this is one of the better ways to play an earnings, if I think we will get an up move I can make a big % gain on a much smaller move and IV crush doesn't hurt you because you are selling the spread which you want to expire worthless, not buying options that need to gain value.
 
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