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UltralightBeam
Member
I wish he had told us the reasons for these changes. Folks above have speculated that it was to be able to ship more cars sooner, or that it was due to a sub-standard part from a supplier that had to be re-sourced with consequent delay, or that they just wanted to keep it simple at first, though why then promise fully-loaded cars first?, or (???). But I am sure we'd all be feeling a little bit better about it if we understood why the plans were changed. If it was something outside of Tesla's control, we'd still be disappointed, but we'd forgive them for it. After all, Murphy's Law hits the powerful as well as the weak. If it was necessary to bring in capital from the markets, we'd understand because none of us wants Tesla to run out of money and go bankrupt. I imagine there's a good reason, but I, for one, would feel a lot better if I knew what that reason was. I was really hoping to get my car before next winter. I'd like to know why I'm going to have to wait an additional year.
Speculation about production lines and simplicity of manufacture aside, he did hint in tweets prior to the reveal that the tax credit was not entirely out of reach for most people. Maybe his way of ensuring middle class people get the tax credit is the make the car unappealing enough that nobody with money will want to buy one until all the barebones credits are used up. See? The tax credits didn't go just to the rich!
My question is this, now that Tesla has stated that they are only doing RWD to start, the people on the reservation list who select AWD will be passed over in the delivery until AWD is in production. When AWD goes to production, will Tesla shutdown production of the RWD models until the backlog of AWD reservations that they passed over are delivered? If only doing the RWD simplifies things in production, won't only doing the AWD simplify things as well?
Living in the upper mid-West I was really planning on getting the AWD option, but now I might be tempted to go with RWD just to get it sooner plus take advantage of the tax credit.
Living in the upper mid-West I was really planning on getting the AWD option, but now I might be tempted to go with RWD just to get it sooner plus take advantage of the tax credit.
garsh
Re Member
I think it's more of a ramp-up issue. Tesla is going to run into lots of problems when they start running this assembly line. Keeping it simpler at first will help them ramp up more quickly as they fix issues. Once production is moving along, they'll attempt to add in various harder options to the assembly line (such as front drive motors for AWD, and battery packs with smart fuses and inconel contacts for Ludicrous) and hopefully have fewer issues to work out so that production remains high with fewer hiccups.
strider
Active Member
Depends how the line is configured and if there are multiple lines. But in practice my belief is that once D's and PDL's are available they probably will produce them exclusively until the backlog is diminished, picking back up RWD's in their normal spot in line. That simply makes the most sense from a "fairness" standpoint as well as maximizing cashflow.
I sent an email to NASales @ teslsa.com. The text of my letter follows:
"Dear Folks,
There's been a storm of questions and comments lately about Elon Musk's recent announcement that the dual-motor and performance trim lines of the Model 3 would not be available for another 6 to 9 months, and a year, respectively. This is a great disappointment to many, including myself. There has been much speculation about the reason(s) for this change in plans, but I have not seen anything from Tesla explaining it.
I'm writing to ask Tesla to explain to all of us eager reservation-holders, why, contrary to previous promises, the Model 3 with dual motor and performance trim line has been pushed back so far, rather than being available before the less-optioned version.
Sincerely,"
and I signed my name and my Roadster number and that I'm a Model 3 reservation-holder, a tsla stockholder, and a solar bond holder. To my surprise, I got a phone call a couple of hours later. I had not put my phone number in the email, but they have it both because of my Roadster and my M3 reservation, and possibly my solar bond holdings.
Basically, what he told me was that Tesla never promised to deliver the fully-optioned cars first, that to the contrary, the reservation contract, which I'd never read (does anybody?) says that Tesla will decide at its discretion which options to offer at what time, and that I should pay no attention to any of the rumors and speculations rampant on the internet. The only thing he would say about their reasoning was that they want to get as many cars out to buyers as possible, as quickly as they can. It follows from this, though unspoken, that they figure they can get more cars through the assembly line if they postpone the dual-motor and performance options. He would say nothing about the time line other than what Elon has already tweeted.
So really, no new information. He would not say specifically why delaying dual motors and performance would result in more cars being built quickly. I mentioned the speculation about problems with parts suppliers, and all he would say to that was Don't believe anything that does not come from Tesla.
"Dear Folks,
There's been a storm of questions and comments lately about Elon Musk's recent announcement that the dual-motor and performance trim lines of the Model 3 would not be available for another 6 to 9 months, and a year, respectively. This is a great disappointment to many, including myself. There has been much speculation about the reason(s) for this change in plans, but I have not seen anything from Tesla explaining it.
I'm writing to ask Tesla to explain to all of us eager reservation-holders, why, contrary to previous promises, the Model 3 with dual motor and performance trim line has been pushed back so far, rather than being available before the less-optioned version.
Sincerely,"
and I signed my name and my Roadster number and that I'm a Model 3 reservation-holder, a tsla stockholder, and a solar bond holder. To my surprise, I got a phone call a couple of hours later. I had not put my phone number in the email, but they have it both because of my Roadster and my M3 reservation, and possibly my solar bond holdings.
Basically, what he told me was that Tesla never promised to deliver the fully-optioned cars first, that to the contrary, the reservation contract, which I'd never read (does anybody?) says that Tesla will decide at its discretion which options to offer at what time, and that I should pay no attention to any of the rumors and speculations rampant on the internet. The only thing he would say about their reasoning was that they want to get as many cars out to buyers as possible, as quickly as they can. It follows from this, though unspoken, that they figure they can get more cars through the assembly line if they postpone the dual-motor and performance options. He would say nothing about the time line other than what Elon has already tweeted.
So really, no new information. He would not say specifically why delaying dual motors and performance would result in more cars being built quickly. I mentioned the speculation about problems with parts suppliers, and all he would say to that was Don't believe anything that does not come from Tesla.
hockeythug
Active Member
Works for me. Delay should work out any kinks and the service centers can grow by the time I can order a AWD.
Yeah, that's the silver lining: They'll have time to work out the bugs. But then the AWD could end up having bugs of its own. Anyway, I'd rather have the car sooner. But there's no point in lamenting about what won't be.
hockeythug
Active Member
I'll order mine right after I see if you got a AWD lemon or not. Haha.
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Hmmm. I'm actually not sure. Maybe I'm just extrapolating changing from reverse to forward. Experimentation is called for. <quick drive> Confirmed. You can go back and forth between drive and neutral at speed. You cannot change between Drive and Reverse or back unless you're 5mph or below and have a foot on the brake. Learned something new today.
As long as the configurator/design studio stage in July/August tells us how far out the AWD production is, most of should be able to make informed decisions with careful consideration on when our respective government incentives could cease to exist.
In Ontario, Canada, we are having a provincial election in June 2018. If the incumbent party losses, the EV incentives might be taken down by the opposition.
$14k CAD is a very neat incentive to get. I would likely not want to miss it.
My trigger point for going with the RWD is if I get the job I interviewed for Tuesday that will require me to drive around 80 miles (roundtrip) each day. So fun driving that distance but job security for me is paramount.
$14k CAD is a very neat incentive to get. I would likely not want to miss it.
My trigger point for going with the RWD is if I get the job I interviewed for Tuesday that will require me to drive around 80 miles (roundtrip) each day. So fun driving that distance but job security for me is paramount.
If you extrapolate Adam Jonas Model 3 production prediction to AWD, it will take years to add that feature. Assuming Tesla will not add the feature until they are building the car in volume.
Imagine if the motor production capacity is 1000 total Model 3 motors per week. If Tesla only builds RWD vehicles, they could handle building 1000 Model 3 cars per week. If Tesla builds AWD Model 3s and everyone ordered AWD, they could only build up to 500 cars per week. Since they are trying to build as many cars as possible so that as many people as possible can take advantage of the tax credit, it makes sense to only build those which only need one motor.
With that said, we have three Model 3 reservations in our household and will be waiting on all three reservations until AWD versions are offered.
garsh
Re Member
Motors are pretty easy to make. I'd be very surprised if that ends up being a production bottleneck. If anything, I would expect battery packs to become the bottleneck.
Excellent! One more person not trying to get ahead of me in line.
I remember the same sort of thinking when the 2004 Prius came out: People saying they'd wait a year for the bugs to be worked out. But people who waited a year to order ended up having to wait two years because the waiting list had grown so long. I ordered mine as soon as I read the initial reviews, and only ever had a few very minor issues.
Good luck with that! I predict that there will be nothing more than Elon's vague tweets regarding anticipated time line. The design studio will say something like "Your configuration choice is not yet available. When we are ready to build your car you will be notified."
That assumes that motor production is the limiting factor. I doubt this is the case.
