I know what they have said and implied - and my concern remains based on Model S and Model X launches.
I just can't see the reservation queue having much effect beyond some very broad batching implications.
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I know what they have said and implied - and my concern remains based on Model S and Model X launches.
I just can't see the reservation queue having much effect beyond some very broad batching implications.
BluestarE3
Active Member
Twitter
Good news. "Pretty good" chance first day reservation holders will get AWD Model 3 by December 31 this year.
Did anybody already cancel their reservation due to AWD not being available with initial deliveries?
Good news. "Pretty good" chance first day reservation holders will get AWD Model 3 by December 31 this year.
Did anybody already cancel their reservation due to AWD not being available with initial deliveries?
Thomas Edison
Active Member
Based on the title of this thread I don't know what to think.
Good news. "Pretty good" chance first day reservation holders will get AWD Model 3 by December 31 this year.
Did anybody already cancel their reservation due to AWD not being available with initial deliveries?
BluestarE3
Active Member
Sure, it's quite possible first deliveries of the AWD will slip into January or later and end up being "next year" as stated in the thread title, but at least we know the goal is to hit the low-end of the 6-9 month range. This would be in the same timeframe as the original year-end first delivery date for any Model 3 announced at Reveal 1.
Just pulling this out of my you-know-where, but I don't believe they'll deliver a handful to meet an arbitrary timeline, and then wait for three months. Note, however, that the questioner asked about AWD, which Musk said 6 to 9 months in the earlier tweet, and not about Performance, which Musk said one year. So if you just want AWD, there's a chance for the end of this year, which was always the case with the 6-to-9-month time frame. But if you want P-AWD, probably not.
Not sure where the discrepancy is... 6-9 months is, depending on interpretation, next year. The thread title says 'next year'. Elon just said first day people have a 'pretty good' chance of getting an AWD version 'by 12/31'. That's as close to 'next year' as you can come. I think we have to assume that promise/estimate is for west coast people, since east coast weren't going to see any cars, most likely in 2017.
It all may be a bit of a sliding scale based on blowback from the screaming from 'what do you mean, no AWD?!'... who knows?
It all may be a bit of a sliding scale based on blowback from the screaming from 'what do you mean, no AWD?!'... who knows?
1. Elon's Time.
2. Probably you will be able to configure and order your AWD by then.
But car's delivery might be a little late*.
* see #1
2. Probably you will be able to configure and order your AWD by then.
But car's delivery might be a little late*.
* see #1
As I posted in the standalone thread, it was mentioned in the Elon Tweets thread: when he posted that it was still April 1st in California. Is he back home? Dang time zones! This didn't have the insane quality of the Alien Language tweets of earlier, though.... I think it's real.
geoffreak
Driving My Model 3
As a central US early line-waiting reservationist, I was originally hoping for AWD in the January to March timeframe. When Elon originally posted his 6-9 months post about AWD, I was worried that would push my AWD opportunity past March whereas I could get a RWD as early as November. A 4 to 5 month difference in wait time made AWD a much tougher sell, but only a month or two is much more reasonable!
Lots of people seem to think that "6 to 9 months" means ten or eleven months from when the tweet was posted. Granted, that Elon tends to be a bit of a chrono-optimist. But "6 to 9 months" from March (I don't know when the "6 to 9 months" statement was made) would be as early as September or as late as December.
Kind of moot for me, because I'm waiting for P-AWD, which I gather he said one year, so that's spring of 2018.
But now I'm not sure where "6 to 9 months" came from because at the beginning of this thread, in post number 5, Az_Rael posted a link to a screen shot of a Twitter stream where Elon says dual motor "not until next year."
I need to stop reading this thread and wait for an email from Tesla. (I probably won't, but I should.)
Kind of moot for me, because I'm waiting for P-AWD, which I gather he said one year, so that's spring of 2018.
But now I'm not sure where "6 to 9 months" came from because at the beginning of this thread, in post number 5, Az_Rael posted a link to a screen shot of a Twitter stream where Elon says dual motor "not until next year."
I need to stop reading this thread and wait for an email from Tesla. (I probably won't, but I should.)
Looking back, maybe it is 6 to 9 months from 24 March for dual motor and next year for performance.
melindav
☰ 2018
a dealership put my Solstice on a flat lift and did the same thing. When I came in for the next (included in service package at time of purchase) oil change and had a printout showing the correct lift points and said last time I caused damage the response I got was something like "OK, I'll let the tech know" no response to the damage - then they claimed the reason it took 3x as long to get it back to me was because they had to figure out how to use a jack. After that I didn't use any more of the pre-paid oil changes.
BluestarE3
Active Member
Yes, it appears some people (myself included) may have interpreted the 3/24 announcements as pushing out the AWD and/or performance models first deliveries past July 2017 (when initial Model 3 deliveries begin) by the specified amount of time:
Looking back, maybe it is 6 to 9 months from 24 March for dual motor and next year for performance.
View attachment 220933
View attachment 220934
- "First in line for dual motors as soon as we can make it, which is probably in 6 to 9 months" assumed to mean January to April 2017 (6-9 months after initial Model 3 deliveries), which is "next year", rather than September to December 2017 (6-9 months from when the comment was made). The latter ties in with the latest tweet that there's a "pretty good" chance first-dayers could get their AWDs by 12/31.
- "Yes, but not until next year" for the performance model assumed to mean starting no earlier than July 2018 (one year after initial Model 3 deliveries) rather than some unspecified date starting at the earliest January 1, 2018.
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I think that reading this thread to figure out when we're going to get our cars is like learning ballistic trajectories from watching the coyote on those old road runner cartoons. You know, where the coyote runs off the edge of a cliff, goes straight out for 50 feet or so, then stops, and then falls straight down.
It's fun, in a perverse sort of way, but has no relation to reality. Some day they're going to open the design studio. We'll order our cars. And some day they'll arrive. I'm confident they'll be worth the wait.
It's fun, in a perverse sort of way, but has no relation to reality. Some day they're going to open the design studio. We'll order our cars. And some day they'll arrive. I'm confident they'll be worth the wait.
Yes Daniel it is fun. Now leave us alone with you rational thinking
strider
Active Member
That is because no other car company is so dependent on having easy access to debt and equity markets than Tesla. Wall Street and Banks care about quarterly results and so then does Tesla. Until they are actually profitable they will have to live this way.It is all a big quarterly game for Tesla, this whole business. For such a longterm-minded business in theory, they sure are very short-sighted in practice.
I have never felt the quarterly pressures affecting me as a customer of any other car company, but with Tesla it is certainly felt even at the end-customer level.
Yeah, I am not really blaming them for it - more like stressing to myself and others to be aware of this. Tesla does play quarterly games that are not always on our own interest...
Except that it's in our interest for Tesla to succeed. I presume we all want Tesla to stay in business to push electric transportation. And regardless, we need them to stay in business for service and parts for our cars.
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