No Plans to take X, S (or 3) above 100kWh

[Cloxxki]

Yours is generally an accurate assessment of progress to date, but I think it's important to also factor in cost and production rate when discussing 'battery tech'...and it at least seems like the gigafactory will addrsss those aspects.

Tesla is pricing packs in new cars as if they're rare spare parts, huge mark-ups. If there's a chemistry now that add 30% of range over what they're selling us, I bet it's worth making. Heck, the whole world would want those. For cars, laptops, vaping, bike lights, quadricopters (remote and manned), etc, etc.
In tech, something better can be charged a premium for. Just think of cell phones. Is last year's top selling smartphone useless now? It's still great but we're lining up to buy this year's Model and paying more.
As far as I can tell, Tesla has not done their part in battery tech advancement. Let's hope 2170 makes them catch up. They'll have to, to hold that claim of greatest density for any amount of time. Just switching to a slighttly different form factor when you invest harder into the same kinds of batteries, that's not 5 years worth of cutting edge battery development. That's just dumping the standard that got popularized in a whole different era, an optimizing density by a modest percentage. I recently came to a 3% density gain on a digital napkin. Just utilizing 7.7% wasted head space supposedly available in an S/Xpack when optimizing packaging.

 

[AmpedRealtor]

It's all about customer perception, period. Makes no difference what Elon thinks. Try and tell my neighbors with a Lincoln Navigator that can go 475 miles per tank that they will be just fine with a car that can go 300 miles on a charge and which adds 20% to the time of a road trip for charging. Yes, I'm sure they will totally understand the "diminishing returns" argument or the "there are plenty of Superchargers" argument. Nope, won't fly. Sorry.

 

[KJD]

It is easy to write a press release that says you have 400 mile range, much harder to actually build a car and drive it that far.

Even if that Fisker could do 400 miles (doubtful), after you drive that far where are you going to charge it up at? That 30 amp J plug is going to take a while.

 

[Mark Z]

Even the current king, the 100D, is a compromise vehicle compared to an ICE for a LOT of people. It certainly is for me.

It will take more than a larger battery. Faster Supercharging will be needed to avoid long waits during cross country drives. 400 mile range with 10 minute charging can compete with gasoline fills when a bathroom stop is planned during the charge.

I skipped using the Tesla on a 4,800 mile two week vacation drive. Less than 2 hours for 17 gas fills saved 35 hours of time compared with 50 stops to Supercharge.

 

[Offline]

My hope is that they stick with the 100kwh size for a while but between making the pack lighter and the motors and everything else more efficient that they are able to further increase the range (and probably the acceleration in the performance model, but I couldn't care less about that - all the cars they are selling right now are plenty fast.)

 

[jankratochvil]

Even if that Fisker could do 400 miles (doubtful), after you drive that far where are you going to charge it up at?

At Tesla Supercharger. Musk was offering Supercharger access to competitors as long as they pay their share of the Supercharger network cost.

 

[arnis]

, your starting range in winter (

Well let's fix the winter, not the battery. I've said that multiple times.
Tesla is pretty much the last EV maker that totally ignores heat pump.
Even though heating system on S/X is complex, it is not "complex enough" for class leading results.

If Tesla truly TRULY cared about what customers say they want, rather than what they think they need, they'd make a longer range version.

Tesla doesn't truly TRULY cares what customers say the want because... Because if they did, it would end exactly as
the streets of America look like. Solo travellers in 8-seater minivans and full size SUV's without a single scratch on the paintwork.
In other words extremely big batteries that actually have carbon cost behind them.

When I had my Leaf I almost ran out of range one night just going into town to have dinner with my wife. We made a couple of other stops that were 10-15 minutes apart and by the time we got home it was almost completely dead. No way I'm stopping to charge for 30 minutes on a simple night out.

Well, nobody forces you to charge your battery to 90%. How about a stop for 3-8 minutes? This is what I do when I start to run out of juice (which does happen pretty much every month). You can get 5kWh with those 8 minutes. Exaggeration is the word I believe.

I'm kind of astonished at the apparent assumption that Tesla can just wave a wand and double the battery capacity from 100 kWh immediately without significant redesign and retesting and without any impact on charging parameters.

Exactly. It's not actually possible to make a model S with 75kWh, 100kWh, 150kWh and 200kWh pack all offering seating for 5 with the same chemistry (kWh/kg)
Average Joe doesn't and shouldn't understand the reasons behind that.
Prius Prime actually seated four people. Not because there were no room, but because vehicle was not able to carry 5, legally.

And, as sales number show us, 100kWh is not the sweet spot. It is actually above the sweet spot.
And 60kWh was below the sweet spot. And the further from sweet spot, the less does the capacity make sense.
Tesla doesn't have to be "the longest range EV in the world". Let others also play. Longest≠best.

Model S got the facelift. It will be replaced soon (2019-2020) by another platform. Then it will get like 20% more capacity, why not.
And it will, very likely, pull further ahead into "premiumness" as Model 3 will be available for that time for those who want
a Tesla for less money. That means Tesla will likely lose the 75 on that new Model S. And the starting price will also get slightly higher.
This is the only practical way to have more capacity than 100kWh. Something like 90 and 120 simultaneously is technically well doable. And as carbon cost per kWh falls it is more acceptable+responsible to make "very premium" batteries.
Model Y might fill the spot between Model 3 and Model S/X. In terms of price. That is definitely speculation by me.

 

[calisnow]

It's all about customer perception, period. Makes no difference what Elon thinks. Try and tell my neighbors with a Lincoln Navigator that can go 475 miles per tank that they will be just fine with a car that can go 300 miles on a charge and which adds 20% to the time of a road trip for charging. Yes, I'm sure they will totally understand the "diminishing returns" argument or the "there are plenty of Superchargers" argument. Nope, won't fly. Sorry.

This is why I think electric car growth is so viral - you have to drive a Tesla to get it. The large increase in driving and riding pleasure (smoothness, lack of vibration, instant torque) has to be experienced to be understood as the game changer it is. Until a person drives/rides in one they will do just what you said "Oh 300 isn't enough - I'll stay in my Navigator."

This viral nature is also why I believe we will see explosive electric car growth - I think we are at the inflection point of the growth rate right now. Everyone who gets in a Model S wants one - but the price holds most back. The Model 3 will destroy the price barrier - it's full speed ahead IMHO. Every Model 3 on the road will generate 5, 10, 20 sales or reservations - people will be blown away and now they can actually afford the damn thing.

 

[DarkMatter]

What's Tesla's mission? Accelerate sustainable transport. Sure there are folks who could probably find a use for a 200 kWh battery. On the other hand if they could use that production capacity to make batteries for two cars, and displace two ICE vehicles, which one makes more sense? To that end a Bolt-like 50-60 kWh car at a low cost and building out the network of Superchargers probably is more on mission.

 

[ohmman]

Well let's fix the winter, not the battery. I've said that multiple times

ICE drivers are working on that.

 

[Mo City]

Could be. But the big guns will start making cars 2 years from now also. Having learned a lot from what Tesla has accomplished, and making sure to take off the table what Tesla left on.

Surely you realize Tesla won't be able to monopolize (or even hold a dominant share) in the EV market forever. They may well end up being the #1 EV volume manufacturer outside of China, but even with the most aggressive ramp up (with multiple gigafactories coming online in future years), the "big guns" will get their market share even if they remain technologically behind Tesla for a while.

When incumbents are actually capable of offering longer range than the 100D with a price point within striking distance, Tesla will anticipate it and release 110D/120D vehicles. That won't happen anytime soon.

 

[abasile]

What's Tesla's mission? Accelerate sustainable transport. Sure there are folks who could probably find a use for a 200 kWh battery. On the other hand if they could use that production capacity to make batteries for two cars, and displace two ICE vehicles, which one makes more sense? To that end a Bolt-like 50-60 kWh car at a low cost and building out the network of Superchargers probably is more on mission.

Perhaps so, if Tesla vehicle sales end up being limited by battery production capacity.

On the other hand, if Tesla and Panasonic prove able to ramp battery production fast enough to keep up with the rest of the production pipeline, then there'll be no need to "ration" batteries and limit pack sizes.

The aspirational value of Tesla vehicles has really helped the growth of the EV market. Even though not everyone buys a 100D or a P100D, simply knowing that they exist and have over 300 miles of range helps to make EVs more attractive. Achieving over 400 miles of rated range will be even more impressive to the public. The value here is in clearly demonstrating that EVs are the future.

 

[Cloxxki]

Surely you realize Tesla won't be able to monopolize (or even hold a dominant share) in the EV market forever.

I felt I was clearly implying such. But to just give up the longer range market, as a premium brand over-pricing its cells so successfully up til today, seems illogical.

 

[Ben W]

Well, nobody forces you to charge your battery to 90%. How about a stop for 3-8 minutes? This is what I do when I start to run out of juice (which does happen pretty much every month). You can get 5kWh with those 8 minutes.

More like 16kWh in those 8 minutes (at 120kW charging rate). And Elon has hinted that the next-gen charging system will be much faster still.

 

[sandpiper]

It will take more than a larger battery. Faster Supercharging will be needed to avoid long waits during cross country drives. 400 mile range with 10 minute charging can compete with gasoline fills when a bathroom stop is planned during the charge.

I skipped using the Tesla on a 4,800 mile two week vacation drive. Less than 2 hours for 17 gas fills saved 35 hours of time compared with 50 stops to Supercharge.

Absolutely. For myself, I find the number of compromises drop significantly when I can get 400-ish miles of real range. I do very few single day trips more than that, and as long as I can plug in at my destination, there's no loss. With that sort of range, there are very few circumstances under which I would ever need to use a supercharger.

And just because a vehicle comes with compromises, that doesn't mean that we aren't willing to make those compromises. But the fewer compromises, the larger the potential customer base.

 

[sandpiper]

Surely you realize Tesla won't be able to monopolize (or even hold a dominant share) in the EV market forever. They may well end up being the #1 EV volume manufacturer outside of China, but even with the most aggressive ramp up (with multiple gigafactories coming online in future years), the "big guns" will get their market share even if they remain technologically behind Tesla for a while.

When incumbents are actually capable of offering longer range than the 100D with a price point within striking distance, Tesla will anticipate it and release 110D/120D vehicles. That won't happen anytime soon.

Yep. China is building battery capacity like mad, and Tesla will be a minority sooner, rather than later I suspect. I am guessing that the US/EU manufacturers are quietly waiting for China to come online with a pile of low cost battery cells. I think that that, in a few years, the battery cell market will look a lot like the solar cell market, with prices dropping through the floor and China dominant.

 

[sakimano]

Rural drivers need to travel further to get to places, including charging stations and use more battery doing more tasks. I live in a big city but I have in laws who live in a rural area (that is cold for 6 months out of the year). They cannot get an electric car simply because the infrastructure won't allow them to unless the battery size is 100kwh or greater. They cannot afford an S100D but if a 130 or 150kwh battery comes out, it will push down prices for the 100kwh range and allow them to obtain a larger battery which will allow them to actually use an electric car for their commute or daily tasks. Elon's pick up might be the only option for them to totally eliminate ICE vehicles but a sedan like the S100D would eliminate at least one of their ICE vehicles.

A S90D gives 294 miles but in winter, make that 230. 200 mile round trip cuts it far too close. Yes, they live so far out (and in the mountains) that 294 rated miles isn't enough. The extra 40 miles to the 100D makes it close enough to justify.

I think it's simple math. Tesla is focusing on the urban market. Where 80% of the population lives. The other 20% who are truly rural...?not really a great business case to build a company for them unfortunately.

 

[Cloxxki]

Absolutely. For myself, I find the number of compromises drop significantly when I can get 400-ish miles of real range. I do very few single day trips more than that, and as long as I can plug in at my destination, there's no loss. With that sort of range, there are very few circumstances under which I would ever need to use a supercharger.

And just because a vehicle comes with compromises, that doesn't mean that we aren't willing to make those compromises. But the fewer compromises, the larger the potential customer base.

As far as I understand though, the charging speed of basic plugs may be so slow than an overnight fill-up is not exactly a given? If there is a charging specific plug to attach to, I can see getting closer to full if you arrived near empty with a huge battery pack... Such infrastructure is bound to improve, especially at hotels and the like, but not exactly sure thing to have available just yet. And even if a hotel has one nice plug, you may not be first in line. What then? Charge is really slow for the other guy as well.

 

[sandpiper]

As far as I understand though, the charging speed of basic plugs may be so slow than an overnight fill-up is not exactly a given? If there is a charging specific plug to attach to, I can see getting closer to full if you arrived near empty with a huge battery pack... Such infrastructure is bound to improve, especially at hotels and the like, but not exactly sure thing to have available just yet. And even if a hotel has one nice plug, you may not be first in line. What then? Charge is really slow for the other guy as well.

One problem at a time. As you said, infrastructure will improve as demand requires it. Building codes will start to require charging plugs at businesses and new homes. And people will start to do their own installs at their own homes.

 

[sandpiper]

I think it's simple math. Tesla is focusing on the urban market. Where 80% of the population lives. The other 20% who are truly rural...?not really a great business case to build a company for them unfortunately.

And urban/suburban people don't go to cottages? Or camping in the middle of nowhere? Or ski trips? Or tow a boat? Or visit the inlaws up north? Or drive at some absurd speed on the autobahn? It's not just we hicks who have this issue.