Non-owner First Production window just got pushed back

[SMAlset]

I'm a non California owner and my Standard went from early 2018 to late 2018. My AWD is still late 2018.

As for the First Production version I think we are very close to the end of the owner line (8/26/17) and the "non-owners & 3/31 reservation holders" will follow. Owners and employees who deferred can always jump back in but I really think they are close to starting with the 3/31 non-owners...once the batteries start getting sent from the Gigafactory. What was your First Production estimate?

 

[atlas310]

As for the First Production version I think we are very close to the end of the owner line (8/26/17) and the "non-owners & 3/31 reservation holders" will follow. Owners and employees who deferred can always jump back in but I really think they are close to starting with the 3/31 non-owners...once the batteries start getting sent from the Gigafactory. What was your First Production estimate?

I forget. It ended in either March or April. Now it's April-June. I was more interested in the standard battery though.

 

[SMAlset]

I forget. It ended in either March or April. Now it's April-June. I was more interested in the standard battery though.

Thanks and I'm March-May now so April-June is just a month off from each other (although there is a span). I'm thinking we'll be invited in March sometime.

 

[WARP 10]

When did you put in your reservation? I am trying to sort out how many owners are without an invite and what their corresponding reservation dates are...

Reservation was made in August, 2016.

 

[israndy]

When the first SRs come out, employees and current Tesla owners waiting for SR will still get to order first.

I think the emphasis on being a "Day 1" reservation holder is overblown; what really will matter is whether you go for PUP and/or the Long Range model.

I agree, when the last LR is purchased by the last person who has a reservation, and wants one, that will be the day the SR becomes MAGICALLY available. Not complaining, it separates the men from the boys. I would rather have the excitement of the new car than wait for the best deal. Likely the best deal isn't what I want anyway.

-Randy

 

[smak]

I just thought of this, and it kind of makes sense with the data we have.

1. There are TONS of people in the MAR-MAY group
2. There have been no invites for 2+ weeks
3. Deliveries are now 3-6 weeks.

Note that on the 3-6 week delivery a lot of people have gotten their cars in 3 weeks, but there have not been really that many that have waited 6 weeks. Seems like just isolated incidents.

And also, making it 6 weeks has nothing to do with the amount of cars they are making. If there is a major delay, they just would wait to invite people. 4 week delivery has not been a problem.

So my theory is, that they will be sending out a much bigger delivery invite for the MAR-MAY people than they have before, thus making the delivery window longer up to 6 weeks

They will try to send as many invites out as possible to this group to be fairer, and spread it all over the country.

It also takes care of the problem of having no idea of how many people will defer in each batch, thus making it hard to schedule. With one huge batch, and extending the delivery time, it won't matter as much.

 

[Flekoun]

We always think of you guys as the "extra patient ones". Please don't disappoint us. It's really upsetting to see you complaining.

Well, early 2019 will be like exactly 3 freaking years waiting for a car... you know.... one get a little bit impatient by then...

 

[gambit48]

Strawman argument. My original delivery window was Oct-Dec so we are really looking at a 6 month window...so far. Let me ask, at what point do you think it is absurd? Will you just keep defending Tesla at 9 months? 12 months?

I go by the last car they made. Model X, 2 years late. So, that's what I think you should expect out of them. If they can beat mid 2019, that's a win to me. That's at 5,000 cars/week by mid-2019 assuming demand is there.

 

[jasonb]

As for the First Production version I think we are very close to the end of the owner line (8/26/17) and the "non-owners & 3/31 reservation holders" will follow. Owners and employees who deferred can always jump back in but I really think they are close to starting with the 3/31 non-owners...once the batteries start getting sent from the Gigafactory. What was your First Production estimate?

very close to end of owner line (at least through october 2017 as of this afternoon). keep the faith elon loves you

 

[SMAlset]

As for the First Production version I think we are very close to the end of the owner line (8/26/17) and the "non-owners & 3/31 reservation holders" will follow. Owners and employees who deferred can always jump back in but I really think they are close to starting with the 3/31 non-owners...once the batteries start getting sent from the Gigafactory. What was your First Production estimate?

very close to end of owner line (at least through october 2017 as of this afternoon). keep the faith elon loves you

Not sure when I posted that but received our 1st production invite today.

 

[S3XY]

Well, early 2019 will be like exactly 3 freaking years waiting for a car... you know.... one get a little bit impatient by then...

Sure, but just think how many more zloty's you'll have saved up by then.

 

[sperkin]

Just saw a friend that received his invite. He bought a CPO in Oct 2017 and reserved the Model 3 in Dec 2017. Got his invite tonight to configure the 3.

 

[AlanSqB]

Just about time for AWD option to get released so the whole process can start over again.

 

[TEG]

That is the big question... what comes next?

#1: Non-owner line waiter LR+PUP invites?
and/or
#2: AWD for owners who delayed for that?
and/or
#3: Invitations for foreign owners, such as Canadians?

It seems clear that SR is likely postponed.

If they added white interior option, that might get some "ready to configure" owners to start configuring.

 

[pangolina]

Just checked my own page. They moved me back as well.

(Selected) First Production Mar- May 2018.
Standard Battery Late 2018.
Dual Motor All-Wheel Drive Late 2018

I'm still in no hurry but 2 years w/ the limitations of my leaf is starting to wear on me. My life's radius is so tiny

Same here - dates and a current vehicle Oh well, it's not the first thing I had to wait for in my life. And not the last one. Hopefully by the time I got invited the white interior will be available. Will be Leaf'ing in a meantime, with ever shrinking radius.

EDIT: visited Model 3 at Soulthlake 3 times, twice with line waiting. 3rd time - no line (yay!), but got kicked out eventually - spent too much time in the driver seat Hopeless Tesla-holic.

 

[gregincal]

That is the big question... what comes next?

#1: Non-owner line waiter LR+PUP invites?
and/or
#2: AWD for owners who delayed for that?
and/or
#3: Invitations for foreign owners, such as Canadians?

It seems clear that SR is likely postponed.

If they added white interior option, that might get some "ready to configure" owners to start configuring.

If you trust Tesla estimations it's #1. Many of those people had the same date range as owners who just got invited to configure. Since these dates were just updated a week or so ago I'd say it's a pretty good approximation of Tesla's plans.

 

[Foxhound199]

Switching to AWD for owners now would be an awful move. They are way behind on their production rate estimates, so anything that would cause them to slow down and retool would be beyond ludicrous until they reach their volume targets.

 

[EinSV]

Switching to AWD for owners now would be an awful move. They are way behind on their production rate estimates, so anything that would cause them to slow down and retool would be beyond ludicrous until they reach their volume targets.

I agree.

Also, production of each Model 3 variant will follow an S-shaped curve according to Elon (and common sense). So when they begin ramping production of AWD, volumes of AWD vehicles will be very low at the beginning, and should not have any appreciable impact on deliveries of the First Production version. In all likelihood, by the time AWD is ready to be produced in significant volume, LR/PUP production will be in the multiple thousands/week and LR/PUP deliveries will continue to non-owners as AWD production ramps up.

 

[Big Dog]

Switching to AWD for owners now would be an awful move. T

Exactly. The market (aka investors) will be all over Elon if he does not deliver a 5k run rate by the end of next month. Plus, he has a backlog of thousands of non-owners willing & waiting to plunk down $59k for what can come off the production line today. Why screw up that efficiency by staring another line for AWD?

 

[ℬête Noire]

Exactly. The market (aka investors) will be all over Elon if he does not deliver a 5k run rate by the end of next month.

Note: The target is 2500/week at end of Q1, 5000/week is end of Q2. Still point is valid.