HankLloydRight
No Roads
What about the fact that there aren't enough authorized shares to do a 5:1 split?
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Numerology on Twitter
- Thread starter Gigapress
- Start date
What about the fact that there aren't enough authorized shares to do a 5:1 split?
MUST read post from @Artful DodgerSo, let's continue exploring this rabbit warren. Way back during the August 2020 5:1 split, there was an interesting coincidence in timing between the Split Announcement and the NASDAQ Short Interest data release.
Specifically, SI data for July 31, 2020 was released just before Tesla announced their 5:1 split during the After-hrs session on Aug 11, 2020: (here was the TSLA SP reaction)
View attachment 735229
At that time, I used the SI volume to estimate the number of phantom shares created via naked short selling (assumed a 1:1 short/naked as a 1st approximation). This allowed me to use a simple supply and demand microeconomics model to predict a 90% increase in the SP due to the forced naked short covering. Turns out that was very close.
In the event, TSLA SP rose exactly 96% from $1374 to $2,700 pre-split (or $540 post-split) peaking in the Pre-market on Tue, Sep 01 just before Tesla's 7:00 a.m. SEC filing for their $5B Equity Offering: (here's the Pre-market reaction from Sep 01, 2020)
View attachment 735230
Recall that during this time, many Retail Brokers were *unable* to deliver the Dividend Shares to their Beneficial Owners (read: Retail customers of the Broker), and MANY excuses were offered as to why they had not received their shares from the Clearing House. Yeah, they were unable because they weren't ENTITLED to any more shares because they were NAKED SHORT. All this occurred as I predicted in advance, and posted here in this thread around Aug 14, 2020.
Let's also take note of this further coincidence: the $5B Equity Offering filed on Sep 01, 2020 was equal to the estimated value of shares that naked shorts would be forced to purchase as a minimum (also predicted by the Aug 11 SI data). IMO, Tesla gave an escape door for MM/hedge funds, who gladly coughed up $5B in about 24 hrs to escape their predicament (caught naked short).
BTW, that $5B paid for Giga Texas in full, with a tidy sum left over for future debt repayments (thanks shortie, wouldn't wanna be ya)Note also that this did not END the practice of naked shorting TSLA, it was just the MINIMUM number of shares required to cover by abusive naked short sellers (mainly MMs with the Options exemption, but TSLA has about 28 different MMs).
So now, fast-forwarding, let's take note of these Dates for Nov/Dec 2021, extracted from the NASDAQ Short Interest Publication Schedule:
November Settlement Date Due Date- 6 p.m. Dissemination Date
after 4 p.m., ET11/30/2021 12/2/2021 12/9/2021
OH GEEZ. There's that DATE again: 12/9
So this means that any naked shortz not covered as of Nov 30, 2021 WILL be vulnerable on Dec 09, 2021 if not covered via purchasing a real TSLA share (one which is registered with the National Clearing House, not just an entry in the MMs internal ledger).
But this time around, Elon is providing both an escape hatch (his share sales), and fair warning (all those twitter hints) to any MM/hedgies who DID NOT LEARN from the beating they took in Aug/Sep 2020: DUCK AND COVER, or SUFFER. We can attribute some of this week's SP runup to that "learning process" working on shortzes.
We saw in Jan 2021 with the Gamestop $GME trading disaster that highly exposed Retail Brokers are VULNERABLE to default/bankrupcy (mainly Robin Hood and Melvin Capital, but also Interactive Brokers to name a few).
When there are more legal obligations to purchase shares than the total number of shares that exist ($GME short interest was 134% of their total stock on about Jan 26, 2021), its a major problem for the Market. This event nearly caused the collapse of several large players, which desparately halted BUYING ONLY for GME, butretail suckers bagholders traderssuckers were allowed to SELL as the SP collapsed. Also, Melvin Capital needed a $2.8B bailout from Citadel (which implies their own risk was even higher, if that was their best solution). It happened to $GME.
Now fast-forward to Dec 2021:
Any remaning naked shortzes will also have to compete for that shrinking float, as HODL'rs won't sell and MOMO traders jump in with both boots. And then it's the ...
- Tesla does NOT need any Capital; so no rescue forthcoming via an Equity Offering
- S&P 500 Index and Benchmarked Funds combined hold ~$300B of TSLA shares
- large funds are direct holders of their shares, which can not be faked on a ledger
- on the split comes, big players will DEMAND all their rightfully owned dividend shares
- its possible a share dividend may trigger a recall by Funds which have loaned shares
- competition for the remaining float will be intense as legal shortzes scramble to cover
SQUEEZE.
This is my prediction going forward:
So what does the end game look like? Well, SEC Regulation SHO, Rule 201 "the options market maker's exemption to the prohibition against naked shorting" a.k.a. the "Madoff Rule" has to be the target of this gambit. If Rule 201 is not fixed in a meaningful way, Tesla can repeat this forever going forward as Elon sells 10% year after year.
- Thu, Dec 9, 2021 Tesla announces share dividend (split ratio TBD)
- December TSLA SP run-up continues in an epic "Santa Claus Rally"
- Thu, Dec 23, 2021 new shares Distribution Date (D-Day, Merry Xmas!)
- Mon, Dec 27, 2021 TSLA begins trading with these new Dividend shares
- certain Retail Brokers are AGAIN unable to deliver those shares
- excuses and cries of 'foul' flood the Media (who's Xmas is spoiled)
- the short squeeze begins in earnest with exponential runup
- Tesla DOES NOT offer an Equity rescue (humming Carols instead)
- Jan 2022:
- some Financial instititutions collapse (looking at JPMorgan)
- Congress gets involved (so nothing happens)
- stalemate is not an option
Untenable... Must fix... Rasputin... China syndrome... Manhatten Project.
Just one last point to make for any doubters who are still reading this: before Bernie Madoff died in prison for his multi-billion dollar fraud ponzi scheme, before Bernie drafted the "Madoff Rule" which is Regulation SHO, Rule 201, Bernie Madoff was the President of NASDAQ.
This can happen. Worse things have happened in the past. We just don't think much about it.
Word.
Tl;Dr - Refer to above.
@Discoducky @Artful Dodger
do you anticipate similar ratios?
“…At that time, I used the SI volume to estimate the number of phantom shares created via naked short selling (assumed a 1:1 short/naked as a 1st approximation). This allowed me to use a simple supply and demand microeconomics model to predict a 90% increase in the SP due to the forced naked short covering. Turns out that was very close.….”
($60 Billions in losses so far, warms the ”cockles of yer heart, eh?)
Buckminster
Well-Known Member
Not authorised yet. Announcement of intent etc. would be sufficient even if he can't be bothered to get the board together in time.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
@Discoducky @Artful Dodger
do you anticipate similar ratios?
“…At that time, I used the SI volume to estimate the number of phantom shares created via naked short selling (assumed a 1:1 short/naked as a 1st approximation). This allowed me to use a simple supply and demand microeconomics model to predict a 90% increase in the SP due to the forced naked short covering. Turns out that was very close.….”
($60 Billions in losses so far, warms the ”cockles of yer heart, eh?)
There are two big differences this time around vs. Aug-Sep 2020:
- Tesla does NOT need a cap raise (Elon just turned down a €1.1B bty plant grant to accelerate the Giga Berlin approval - 'time is money')
- Elon is setting numerous bear-traps for naked shorting of TSLA (little warning of Aug 31, 2020 split; huge number of clues pointing at Dec 9, 2021)
- the share price ($1,374 on Aug 11, 2020 vs $1,230 on Nov 4, 2021)
- Short Interest has NOT gone down (shortzes are now over $30B short TSLA)
I predict naked short shares to begin showing up as FTD reports during the 1st reporting cycle after the distribution of dividend shares (when people see how many other shares aren't being delivered). This will initiate 'crunch time', as people realize the market isn't functioning properly.
Personally, I think Elon enjoys playing the shortzes, and it bothers him that they are cheating the system (persistent naked short positions). All while Federal Regulators do nothing to address the real imbalances in the system, preferring instead to ignore or deny their existence for short-term gain. It's like a microcosm of climate denial, just played with money instead of weather disasters.
Elon is a firebrand. He wants this to come to a head. It's about fundamental fairness, and leveling the playing field in the Market. For too long, Options Market Makers have been able to manipuate the SP through unlimited naked short selling, and without consequences. Well hammer, meet nail. Rock, meet hard place. Squeeze, meet my anaconda.
Its finally time to burry Bernie Madoff, and end his wretched rule. Regulation SHO, Rule 201: time to die.
Word.
HankLloydRight
No Roads
People pursue goofy tangents all the time. If it bothers you, don’t read it.
You are probably right about Elon not having a ton of time to concoct these weird number puzzles. But I’ve seen him do some pretty goofy stuff with his spare time so hard to sure.
pz1975
Active Member
And OMG it was sent at 7:59 = 7+5 / 9
@Artful Dodger knows way more than me. I can only add that Elon and Zach are currently a very good synergistic match from my knowledge of Elon and Zach. We know another stock split is coming, we know Elon hates shorts and naked short selling, we know Elon loves his retail investors, we know Elon likes to reward employees with stock and we know the rules are heavily in favor of non-retail investors and that needs to change.
Even if 12/9 wasn’t intended to be originally the date of a stock split, it became a self fulfilling prophecy on Twitter with every shareholder tweeting about it. Even Musk himself would have became aware of it if it was not originally planned.
I attribute a 90% probability of seeing a stock split announced on 12/9. I just don’t know yet if I add some extra TSLA shares before.
Anyone changed their strategy and added positions by selling other stocks?
I attribute a 90% probability of seeing a stock split announced on 12/9. I just don’t know yet if I add some extra TSLA shares before.
Anyone changed their strategy and added positions by selling other stocks?
CLK350
Member
Re recording here the full image just in case Twitter forgets - Split is the second largest city of Croatia BTW
AHEM please look at the timestamp.
I'm now ready to determine Armageddon's date based on numerology of the Pope's tweets, and I'm agnostic.
I'm now ready to determine Armageddon's date based on numerology of the Pope's tweets, and I'm agnostic.
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I'm on the east coast. That says 3:09 am ☹
Tes La Ferrari
Active Member
Yes, but 3X4 ( the number of wheels on every Tesla in your time zone ) = 12
Hence 3:09am on the East Coast.
This may be a bit simplistic: These are hypothetical- He’s been selling lately, and presuming a 20 day before quarter end for selling rule, he would have until 12/10 to dump some odd 7 billion worth of shares. What if he A) sold equally every day till then, or B) dumped big time 12/9 (if no more form 4s, people will start wondering). Split gets announced Friday 12/10.
Long term view, this is noise. Short term view, if very few sales evident by, say 12/7, and if he does need to sell on the 9th or 10th, raise cash and buy the dip when he sells. Just a fantasy. Omicron may manipulate this situation , or my tinfoil hat is too tight.
Long term view, this is noise. Short term view, if very few sales evident by, say 12/7, and if he does need to sell on the 9th or 10th, raise cash and buy the dip when he sells. Just a fantasy. Omicron may manipulate this situation , or my tinfoil hat is too tight.
Tes La Ferrari
Active Member
Here’s something to ponder:
Elon’s latest kid’s name is:
X Æ A-12 Musk.
Æ" is the Elven spelling of AI, which is shorthand for artificial intelligence and the word for "love" in several languages, including Japanese.
The “I” in AI is the 9 th letter in the alphabet: so his name could be interpreted as:
X 9 A-12.
Gotta respect the lengths Elon goes to telegraph a 4d chess move to us. He goes to the effort of having another kid and to let us know about the date of the upcoming stock split.
Elon’s latest kid’s name is:
X Æ A-12 Musk.
Æ" is the Elven spelling of AI, which is shorthand for artificial intelligence and the word for "love" in several languages, including Japanese.
The “I” in AI is the 9 th letter in the alphabet: so his name could be interpreted as:
X 9 A-12.
Gotta respect the lengths Elon goes to telegraph a 4d chess move to us. He goes to the effort of having another kid and to let us know about the date of the upcoming stock split.
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@Artful Dodger
a _very_ quick and dirty look at FTD from 1/1/2020 thru Oct. 2021
first
| "Fails to deliver on a given day are a cumulative number of all fails outstanding until that day, plus new fails that occur that day, less fails that settle that day. The figure is not a daily amount of fails, but a combined figure that includes both new fails on the reporting day as well as existing fails. In other words, these numbers reflect aggregate fails as of a specific point in time, and may have little or no relationship to yesterday's aggregate fails." |
you can see the 5:1 stock split, the S&P 500 inclusion, something weird happening in June, 2021, when the SP slope went positive!! (yay!!) AND something happening the last 6-8 weeks along with the slope of the SP going more positive, there is some kind of "day new mont".
It would be nice to get the cumulative aggregate losses of shorts of $60 Billion in or next to those perhaps, with $10-11 Billion this year since the losses seem to both growing and accelerating
(a graph perhaps like, but a poor representation of Minards graph of Napoleons army invading Russia, the basic point of which, to me, was "its a very very bad idea to invade Russia, unprepared, in the winter" or "If you go to Zha'ha'dom, you _will_ die" ie , if you oppose TSLA....., financially, ......
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pz1975
Active Member
It gets better. Elon was born on June 28, 1971 (6/28/1971).Here’s something to ponder:
Elon’s latest kid’s name is:
X Æ A-12 Musk.
Æ" is the Elven spelling of AI, which is shorthand for artificial intelligence and the word for "love" in several languages, including Japanese.
The “I” in AI is the 9 th letter in the alphabet: so his name could be interpreted as:
X 9 A-12.
Gotta respect the lengths Elon goes to telegraph a 4d chess move to us. He goes to the effort of having another kid and to let us know about the date of the upcoming stock split.
6x2=12, 8+1=9 -> 12/9
9+7=16, reverse that is 61, 6-1=5, final number is 1 -> 5:1.
He even got himself born on the right day to set this up. What a guy!
@OrthoSurg
yes, but awhile back
sold 100% of my ARKx (buncha gains) and 60% of my ENPH (very tasty gains)
am in DWCPF, TSLA, ENPH
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