Osborne Effect On Sales Of Models S & X

[mrbulk]

...as well as all ICE cars when the makers of same have to start pushing EVs:

The Osborne Effect On The Auto Industry | CleanTechnica

Coupled with the eventual advent of ride hailing FSD vehicles theoretically further reducing personal vehicle ownership, it makes me wonder how they all (including Tesla’s own recently announced improved drivetrains for the S and X) will persuade the public to keep buying stuff in the meantime?

Does this signal the coming of the GAR (Great Automotive Recession)?

 

[BPSoCal]

Thanks for the share. Interesting read for sure. I just hope the dip doesn’t take out Tesla!

 

[tranzndance]

It's cute how BMW wants to be there for the laggard community.

 

[Munka]

Great article. I think the premise is pretty accurate. I expect the total auto sales to shrink while the ev market grows and ride share (automated or not) becomes normal for many people. Crushing conventional automaker sales on the way.

Tesla's plan has been pretty good, they've sold their product as a premium product and stated many times that they do not sell slow cars. They currently do have an advantage in technology on self driving and battery tech and they need to maintain that to avoid falling into the crowd.

I expect rather than lowering prices Tesla will be better off including bigger batteries and traffic aware cruise control for the same price. I also think the Sr+ was what Elon wanted the Sr to be so expect the Sr will die and the Sr+ with tacc will be the 35k entry level car within a year. Tesla can then maintain a premium position while Uber replaces the Corolla sales.

 

[sillydriver]

Thanks for the share. Interesting read for sure. I just hope the dip doesn’t take out Tesla!

Referencing the graphic in the article, all of Tesla's sales are participating in the now-exponentially-rising blue adoption S-curve for EVs, while none of Tesla's sales are subject to the projected declining S-curve for ICEs, nor the yellow industry dip curve that combines the two. So if the analysis is right, Tesla is in good shape.

 

[mrbulk]

Referencing the graphic in the article, all of Tesla's sales are participating in the now-exponentially-rising blue adoption S-curve for EVs, while none of Tesla's sales are subject to the projected declining S-curve for ICEs, nor the yellow industry dip curve that combines the two. So if the analysis is right, Tesla is in good shape.

Yes, I agree that Tesla, rather than suffering from any of this besides a temporary sales slowdown on their premium lines (S & X) while buyers wait on the upcoming improved motors, etc., is not only in the best position among EV makers, but is in fact the original instigator of this ICE-to-EV transition.