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I rarely post here to avoid interrupting the flow of your daily posts, but I just want to congratulate and thank you again for your thorough analysis.
If I am reading your post correctly and 2013 is indeed our model for the current SP rise, we are on our way to the $450 - $550 range. A rise of (only) 25% more and we are there. If Musk has planned this SP rise out a bit - as many posters in the Market thread seem to think - this should be doable by the end of July by announcing China GF specifics, reaching +5000/week Model 3 production, etc.
If this sounds too optimistic, the $450 - $550 range will be entered easily by early October if:
- M3 production keeps rising;
- the August autopilot update is on time and as good as Elon said it is;
- Q3 profitability is proven.
I don't want to sound like our most controversial bullish fellow poster, but a lot has to go wrong before the end of the year for us to return to below $300.
Not an advice, just personal opinion.
your analogy to 2013-2014 run up is correct. i have similar thoughts. looking at quarterly and monthly charts as well as weekly my best guess is that the price rise from $244.59 bottom in April 2018 to current is similar to rise from August 2012 bottom at $25,52 to Nov/Dec 2012 $35.80View attachment 310155
Please refer to the chart above in which I continue to compare the run up of 2013-14 with that of the present.
* Notice that the 2013-2014 SP chart and the 2018 chart have the same "zero" point and same scale. The price point "300" on the 2018 chart aligns with the 300 price line of the 2013-14 chart.
* In a few seconds of looking at the combined chart, you will realize that in 2018 we're pretty much continuing the TSLA SP climb that peaked in early 2014. A stockholder who was shipwrecked in March of 2014 could look at his TSLA portfolio in May 2018 and say, "Hmm, nothing has happened with my TSLA stock while I've been gone.".
* Much good has happened at TSLA without it being reflected in the SP during this time. Model X was introduced, debugged, and has become a strong revenue source. Stores, service centers, and superchargers have multiplied to make way for the Model 3 ramp up. Tesla energy, semi, and Roadster 2 have appeared. These are huge accomplishments, but without profitability, they have not yet raised the SP.
* The value of the false starts in which TSLA exceeded $380 on Model 3 excitement does offer value to shareholders, however, because it gives the market a reference point of where to begin valuing TSLA once the Model 3 ramp up is real and on target. Where it goes from there is another matter.
* Those runs marked "Ballistic" were so steep that the upper bb became momentarily irrelevant and I identify 2 in 2013-2014.
* Each "Ballistic" run was preceded by a "Pre-run" in which knowledgeable traders started bidding the SP up before the masses realized what had taken place. For 2018, this "Pre-run" took place in late May as TMC members and other "in the know" investors started bidding the SP up from the 270s to about 292.
* The first Pre-run/Ballistic combo of 2013-14 took place in April of 2013. The pre-run preceded the 1Q 13 ER in which profits were announced.
* The second combo of 13-14 took place around the 4Q ER, when greatly expanded Model S production, significant non-GAAP profits, and more than $40M of positive cash flow was announced.
* The combo of 2018 occurred as Elon convinced investors that TSLA would reach its Model 3 production target in June and that Q3 and Q4 remained poised for GAAP profitability. The pre-run took place when TMC forum investors plus others anticipated the run up.
* A sag took place between the 2013 run up and the 2014 run up and a similar sag could take place in 2018 should investors begin to doubt Elon's message about M3 ramping and Q3, Q4 profits or if Tesla fails to deliver these achievements close to schedule
* All of the enduring run ups at Tesla so far have been associated with production progress that led to improved profitability for the company. For this reason, the Q3 and Q4 profitability is an essential component of the Model 3 ramping in June. It's the combination of production, gross-margins for M3, and controlling other operating expenses that will bring the profitability.
your analogy to 2013-2014 run up is correct. i have similar thoughts. looking at quarterly and monthly charts as well as weekly my best guess is that the price rise from $244.59 bottom in April 2018 to current is similar to rise from August 2012 bottom at $25,52 to Nov/Dec 2012 $35.80
however, this time the SP may rise even faster and more relentlessly in a parabolic fashion. it's a fool's errand to guess the eventual SP high but based on Jesse Livermore's Time Element concept i would give it another 7 months before a major pullback so end of December 2018. even that will be only a minor pause before the next leg starts.
those who are heavily leveraged and superlong $TSLA are about to become super rich by end of 2018 provided they do not lose their nerve and sell prematurely
I'm currently expecting a dip on Monday, because I think the weekend's news can be spun negatively. And frankly I think the paint shop problems may prevent getting to 5000/week by the end of June, because paint shop problems can be slow to fix.
P.S. Chart! Chart! Chart! I'm getting hooked on your daily charts!