Typo alert, short percentage of selling was 57.92%. Thanks for catching. You all may commence breathing again.
Alibi: scambooska made me do it.
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Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts
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Typo alert, short percentage of selling was 57.92%. Thanks for catching. You all may commence breathing again.
Alibi: scambooska made me do it.
Maybe he's unwilling to post deliberately-faked numbers. (Even slimy people sometimes have standards.) If he has a history of just not reporting numbers when they don't agree with him, then one possibility is that the real numbers are great. Another is that the source leaking numbers to him got caught.
Actually he just posted
On July 29, 2018 Tesla produced approximately: Model 3: 620 Model S: 130 Model X: 140
Note also this thread where someone seems to have discovered his identity and VW connection
"I now believe Skabooshka’s production numbers are total BS. I sent an email to Tesla Investor Relations, however, to inform them of Skabooshka’s Twitter account and ask if Tesla sends production numbers internally to employees.
Based on another post here that seemed to pretty clearly identify who Skabooshka is (and who his VW-connected brother is), I said hi to him on Twitter using his real first name, and asked how his brother was doing (also using his brother’s first name). His response:"
Doxxing discussion out of Market Action
On July 29, 2018 Tesla produced approximately: Model 3: 620 Model S: 130 Model X: 140
Note also this thread where someone seems to have discovered his identity and VW connection
"I now believe Skabooshka’s production numbers are total BS. I sent an email to Tesla Investor Relations, however, to inform them of Skabooshka’s Twitter account and ask if Tesla sends production numbers internally to employees.
Based on another post here that seemed to pretty clearly identify who Skabooshka is (and who his VW-connected brother is), I said hi to him on Twitter using his real first name, and asked how his brother was doing (also using his brother’s first name). His response:"
Doxxing discussion out of Market Action
I may sound like a broken record but only can reiterate that we should not trust anybody claiming knowledge about numbers regardless if in line with our hopes and believes or not if we cannot verify them or have at least a source to discuss the credibility.
"Its at least a number or best we have" I heard here is not an argument nor convincing and does not fit well to the so far quite high standard of the analytics I find here.
Although I really enjoy every day the valuable insights @Papafox brings to us my conviction is he should not populate this numbers as they are not trustworthy.
No surprise that he and his brother is around here and if you find one or more dislikes below my post thats likely him.....
I agree, Skabooshka knows he can't publish really low numbers as no one would believe it given the obviousness of his bearish stance. So he could be showing the number just low enough with the occasional high day to undermine the targets Tesla have set out. It would be useful if Tesla published fortnightly or monthly production figures.
Fair points made. I have decided to stop posting the skabooshka numbers here. There is a thread on TMC where the numbers are still discussed, if you really want to see them.
I don't see how, unless you're trying to make predictions about bankruptcy and trade the stock on investor emotion. Otherwise it serves no purpose. Frankly they should get rid of quarterly reports altogether.
Today, TSLA enjoyed both good news and good macros. The good news was a report from Panasonic that it will be increasing its battery cell lines from 10 to 13 at Tesla's Nevada Gigafactory, due to a substantial increase in demand for those cells because of Model 3 ramp. The NASDAQ closed up half a %, and theses factors, combined with a renewed interest in buying TSLA below 300, led to the rise of nearly $8. Volume was light, but that didn't stop over 180,000 shares from trading in the final minute.
Looking at the chart, you can see a dip right after 10am, which also took place with the NASDAQ. I'd say it was macro-induced and shorts enhanced. Additionally, take a look at the shape of the trading. We see TSLA making strong runs up and then what appears to be controlled walking down of the SP, followed by more series of steep climbs and moderate downs.
Looking at the tech chart, you can see that the lower bollinger band has done a good job this past month at moderating dips. Only twice did TSLA close below the lower bb, and in both cases it was just barely and the stock closed above the lower bb the following day.
Keep in mind that the moderating effect of both the upper and lower bollinger bands may work well in these sessions where longs and shorts are anticipating what is to come in the Q2 ER, but the actual contents of the ER will likely be powerful enough one way or another to defeat either the upper or lower bb. Rather than guidance from Elon, I think Wall Street is looking for a show of what improvements have already occurred that will remove a liquidity threat. In specific, has Tesla achieved Free Cash Flow yet (not in Q2, which will be quite negative, but in July)? Similarly, investors will be looking for clues as to the gross margins of Model 3 in the coming quarters and next year.
The Q2 ER has been a source of dread recently because so much of the Model 3 production was delivered in July instead of in Q2, which will adversely affect the numbers. I'm personally looking forward to getting the Q2 ER out of the way, one way or the other, so that this source of dread can be removed and eyes can instead turn to the current ramp of M3, which looks promising.
Additionally, Apple had a beat on its after-hours earning call, which should help counteract some of the NASDAQ negativity lately. It should help with TSLA trading tomorrow. That's the most likely explanation for after-hours flirting with 300.
Conditions:
* Dow up 108 (0.43%)
* NASDAQ up 42 (0.55%)
* TSLA 298.14, up 7.97 (2.75%)
* TSLA volume 4.8M shares
* Oil 68.70, down 1.43 (2.04%)
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Shorts did 61.25% of TSLA selling today.
While it is not unusual to see a climb in short-seller manipulating on days when macros are bad and TSLA is descending, it is eye-opening to see the numbers up and this high on a day when TSLA traded green all day and ran way up in the closing minutes. This is because day-trading shorts lose money on their manipulations on a day like today. The significance of high short selling and a strong green day is that the buyers clearly defeated whatever the shorts threw at TSLA today. It's a reminder of what is to come once the uncertainty of the Q2 ER is erased and when longs feel confident that profits and positive cash flow are right around the bend.Hopefully, the ER and CC will have sufficently good news regarding M3 production and gross margins so as to get the ball rolling.
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Congratulations longs, the 2Q ER went very well with after-market trading showing a gain of about $30 for the day. The profit/loss numbers were below analysts expectations but who cares? The Tesla of Q2 is not the Tesla of Q3 and forward, primarily because of the likelihood that Model 3 production will reach 6K/wk in Q3 and bring the profits and positive cash flow that we have all waited for. It's a massive change in output of vehicles, a massive change in the outlook for this company, and reason for the stock to climb higher.
Keep in mind that TSLA traded above 360 on the Monday that began the July 4th weekend and that this plunge below 300 was the results of one of the most intense efforts by the shorts and their FUDster pals in the history of the stock. Negative macros made it easier, but now it is time to unwind those losses.
Elon and team did exactly what they had to do this ER, show the investors that Tesla is on track, has money in the bank, and profits and positive cash flow are coming this quarter and next. I like that the team gave a fair amount of attention to Model 3 gross margin, a favorite weakness in the minds of the shorts. So, with production ramping well, with gross margins looking good, and with Elon Musk acting politely to the analysts, it was all the longs needed to get their mojo back and look forward to further gains this year.
Right now, TSLA has over 35 million shares shorted. This is a huge number when you consider that Elon has just shown that the worst is over and Tesla is now entering the land of positive cash flow and profits. It's time for those shorts to start covering, and when they do, that will drive the stock higher as they compete with longs in the buying. Do not underestimate the potential push that the unwinding of these short positions can have for TSLA's SP.
I cannot pull up a current tech chart, but if you look at yesterday's you will see the upper bb was at about 330 or so. There's no coincidence that the after-hours trading ended very close to the upper bb. Yes, the SP can run higher than the upper bb after news like this. Also, the "golden cross" of the 50 day moving average rising above the 200 day moving average will make the technical traders happy. Lots going on. Looking forward to seeing how things shape up tomorrow.
Busy day for me today, but more analysis tomorrow.
Conditions:
* Dow down 81 (0.32%)
* NASDAQ up 36 (0.46%)
* TSLA 300.84, up 2.70 (0.91%)
* TSLA volume 7.0M shares
* Oil 68.01, up 0.35, (0.52%)
* Percent of TSLA selling by shorts: 58.64%
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Congratulations longs, TSLA just gave us the best gain in terms of dollars in all its history. Only a couple of days in 2013 exceeded today's 16.19% gains. I want to remind you that you certainly have EARNED today's gains. It takes solid belief in the company to hang onto your shares and calls when the shorts are pummeling the SP and the media is slinging so much FUD that your average person on the street thinks that Tesla is doomed. You earned it. Take a bow.
Shorts are down $1.7 billion in today's action. Couldn't happen to a more deserving group. Looking at the two tweets below, you can see that short holdings barely budged today, suggesting that today's rally was almost entirely due to longs buying. As Trendtrader007 would say, don't bail out of a rally too early. The fun part still remains ahead of us when you get to see more buying by longs mixed with covering by shorts. Consider that we have over 35 million shares still held by shorts after the biggest gain in TSLA history. Once the SP approaches a new ATH, many shorts are going to be forced to cover, which will really get things going (see Dusaniwsky's second post).
The general consensus of well-informed bulls is that shorts still believe their thesis is correct and Elon was just telling lies, as usual. They're looking for a chance to start the FUD machine again. In order to be forced to close their positions, TSLA will need to run for the ATH. Once that happens, and once many shorts are forced to cover, the big payoff for longs begins. The real question is of timing of additional good news to start the process. Stick around and please don't miss it.
Looking at the technical chart, please move your gaze upward to catch the significant gap-up in price today. As expected, the upper bb was ignored by the stock as it responded to such momentous news at the company going profitable and cash-flow positive from the current quarter forward. Also note the blue 50 DMA crossing above the 200 DMA in a golden cross. Something for everyone, and congrats again!
Conditions:
* Dow down 8 (0.03%)
* NASDAQ up 95 (1.24%)
* TSLA 349.54, up 48.70 (16.19%)
* TSLA volume 22.9M shares
* Oil 68.97, up 1.31 (1.94%)
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The narrative, what ever the cause, reinforces their belief. Looking at the news today you would think the rally was caused because Elon apologized. If a CEO apologizing could add 7 billion in one day to a market cap. I’d probably short too. Another poster mentioned this in market thread, their false narrative creates their own self fulfilling prophecy of bankruptcy. They have created their own bear trap. This one just seems a little more choreographed from multiple angles.
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Is there any historical precedent of institutions or people with money, who start to accumulate shares in a company for the sole purpose of creating a squeeze? If so, seems like this is a good time for someone to step up.
Of course there is historical precedent -- the 19th century is full of this stuff. It's currently illegal so nobody would ever admit to doing it.
If Elon wanted to break their short backs, he could just purchase 1 million shares on the open market tomorrow. For him that would be $350 million which is chump change but the effect would be to immediately remove a massive volume of available free float from the market which would likely trigger a panic and massive covering by shorts.
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