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Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts
- Thread starter Papafox
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- elon is an ass TSLA
If I were to open a school on stock manipulation, today's TSLA chart would be a great place to start. First we have the brave longs who bought on open today, only to see TSLA dip immediately thereafter as the shorts went to work. Alas, the longs fought back with rise more than a couple points above the red/green line, but then the shorts countered with their own plunge. Longs wanted to buy at these prices because many figured that the dip over the past two days was a rather contrived event, and so we next moved into a long game of "whack-the-mole" that lasted well beyond 2pm. Alas, shorts started running a bit low on ammo and this allowed a flurry of buying by longs to finally defeat the "whack-the-mole" game and run TSLA up several points. Of all the manipulations of the day, I especially liked the effort to sink TSLA in the final two minutes of trading when the stock dipped to 285.85 before closing more than 50 cents higher. It kinda makes the shorts look like desperate pickpockets hanging out at a bus station, looking to score some change.
If you sensed I was a bit hot under the collar yesterday as I talked about all the selling that preceded the Morgan-Stanley downgrade, you sensed correctly. I have low tolerance for the way big downgrades are "shared" with a firm's privileged clients well before the downgrade comes out. Goldman's analyst has lost all credibility through such stunts and his downgrades don't move the needle any more. Adam Jonas needs to be careful to not follow his example because if you abuse the system too often, credibility is definitely lost.
Looking at the technical chart, you can see that in the dip that bottomed out at 275.23, the lower bollinger band defended the lowest boundaries for the SP movement and TSLA closed right about on the bb after venturing noticeably further below. In the case of yesterday's dip, the daily trading never ventured below the lower bb. Again, I believe that big dog traders refer to the upper bb and lower bb in their trading decisions, and you should too if for no other reason than knowing that they do.
If tomorrow is a positive macro day, then I would expect TSLA to rise a bit more. If it is a negative macro day, the heavy push by shorts might win the day. Stay tuned.
Conditions:
* Dow up 63 (0.25%)
* NASDAQ up 47 (0.63%)
* TSLA 286.48, up 2.30 (0.81%)
* TSLA volume 5.6M shares
* Oil 71.52, up 0.03 (0.04%)
* Percentage of trading by TSLA shorts today: 59%
adiggs
Well-Known Member
I'd be curious @Papafox (and I'm hoping it's something your short % of trading resource can easily answer) - what sort of percentage of trading by shorts do we see in other tech issues?
I'm wondering if ~50% is sort of the tipping point (considering how consistently TSLA is over 50 and even 60%, I realized I've been thinking over/under 50% is what I'm looking for).
But maybe Apple sees more like 10 or 30%?
Netflix? Facebook? Amazon?
GM? Ford?
Not looking for all of these - just a smattering of other big industrial companies to try and put more context around TSLA and the larger market. Or if you can point me to a link where I could answer the question for myself, and given I can figure it out, I'm even happy to post back what I find so I'm not the only one with that context.
Thanks
I'm wondering if ~50% is sort of the tipping point (considering how consistently TSLA is over 50 and even 60%, I realized I've been thinking over/under 50% is what I'm looking for).
But maybe Apple sees more like 10 or 30%?
Netflix? Facebook? Amazon?
GM? Ford?
Not looking for all of these - just a smattering of other big industrial companies to try and put more context around TSLA and the larger market. Or if you can point me to a link where I could answer the question for myself, and given I can figure it out, I'm even happy to post back what I find so I'm not the only one with that context.
Thanks
Today's short percentage of trading (In descending order):
* AMZN 55%
* NFLX 49%
* FB 46%
* AAPL 30%
* F 26%
* GM . 21%
Clearly companies such as Amazon and Netflix get lots of attention themselves from the shorts, whereas Ford and GM are in a whole different category.
Thanks, Fifield, the shortvolume.com site had been inoperative for weeks, and this is the first I've seen of it being back up. I'd much rather use them than do the math myself!
FWIW, Here's a three-month chart for TSLA, which shows how dramatically short interest rose in early March and how persistent it's been since then.
If you are new to these charts, the blue line (read on the right side of the graphic), depics short percentage of trading.
Note: a glitch in the current shortvolume.com graphs is that they all get labeled as "alphabet". I assure you that's a TSLA graph you're looking at.
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Worth noting is how quickly TSLA recovered from the three other similar dips. For this reason, shorts can be expected to try to keep the push down going tomorrow, but if they are unsuccessful and the bottom is definitely noted, the run upwards can be brisk.
Today was basically a low-volume day in which the NASDAQ peaked around 11 am and then descended for the rest of the day, with a dip around 2 pm. With no earthshaking news to digest, bulls and bears were both rather restrained in trading, and percentage of trading by shorts fell to 55% today from the typical 60ish% range. Please note that a situation where the macros peak early and then decline for most of the day is a great setup for short manipulations, because it's pretty easy to make money in an environment in which macros (and TSLA) are mostly going down throughout the remainder of the day.
The 2 pm dip of TSLA can be attributed to macros, but you will see a game of "whack-the-mole" anytime TSLA broke into the green this afternoon, and the final hour dip into the red looks like pure gamesmanship by the shorts. As long as TSLA stays in the 280s or high 270s, nobody is going to get too bent out of shape as longs wait for the inevitable announcements of Model 3 production line increases come June. Mostly now, we're just playing out the clock until that good news arrives. The shorts, will, of course, try to get things rolling before then, but longs don't look very inspired to sell.
An improvement of approximately $1 in after-hours trading bodes well for tomorrow's trading, macros permitting.
Conditions:
* Dow down 55 (0.22%)
* NASDAQ down 16 (0.21%)
* TSLA 284.54, down 1.94 (0.68%)
* TSLA volume 4.3M shares
* Oil 71.58, up 0.09 (0.13%)
Today was one of those somewhat unexpected (but not too surprising) days when the shorts push hard to take advantage of weak macros. Shorts traded nearly 63% of TSLA today. The broader markets opened down but climbed for most of the day, which took some of the air out of the sails of the shorts and TSLA bottomed out shortly after noon. My guess is that they hoped to generate some fear in longs as the SP descended into the 270s, but if you look at the technical chart below, you can see TSLA bounced right off the lower bollinger band. If the lower bb contains the effort again on Monday, then traders may sense weakness and the stock could begin another climb towards the upper bb while longs and shorts alike wait for word on Model 3 production ramping.
Speaking of waiting for M3 production results, a good stop on days like today is the "Found a LOT of M3s in a Tesla Lot..." thread . The photos indicate continued heavy Model 3 production and shipping taking place. The latest trend has been to count the number of trucks loading up with Model 3s at any one time, and those numbers apparently keep increasing. Also, the Bloomberg Model 3 tracker is showing more than 3500/wk production rate for Model 3, which is encouraging, but because of the coming production pause in the end of May the trend is showing a very low number.
So, this week we saw continued heavy Model 3 production and also heard very encouraging word from China, word that Tesla is about ready to start construction on a factory in Shanghai and is hiring personnel for a major Chinese expansion. All of this is good but the shorts are continuing their full-court press and we'll likely see continued pressure until their collective gooses are cooked, so keep that seatbelt snugged and hang on for the ride. It gets better in June, likely much better.
Looking at the technical chart you can see the multiple of runs between the upper, mid, and lower bollinger bands that TSLA has made in recent months. Today's bounce off the lower bb was likely just another segment of that pattern playing out once again.
For the week, TSLA closed at 276.82, down 24.24 from last Friday's 301.06. No news justifies this dip, it's likely just another phase in the current waiting game. Word of dual-motor and performance Model 3 configurations may happen in the next couple of days. Fingers crossed. Have a good weekend.
Conditions:
* Dow up 1 (0.00%)
* NASDAQ down 28 (0.38%)
* TSLA 276.82, down 7.72 (2.71%)
* TSLA volume 7.1M shares
* Oil 71.35, down 0.14 (0.20%)
* Short percentage of TSLA trading: 62.6%
Today, longs enjoyed the combination of a highly positive macro day, good news about Tesla, and the stock positioned barely above the lower bollinger band. The bollinger band position suggested that downside potential for this week was quite a bit smaller than upside potential, and so buyers emerged. Shorts walked the stock price down from about 11am until about 3pm, but buyers came to the rescue and bid up the price in the final hour. The good news was an upgraded price target by Berenberg analysts to $500/share, indicating a 74% potential gain. The analysts felt that Model 3 gross margins would surprise Wall Street to the upside. Other good news over the weekend was release of Performance Model 3 info ($78,000 vehicle), and cost of dual-motor version of Model 3 ($5,000 extra). The dual-motor price was about a thousand dollars more than some Tesla observers were expecting, but given the incredible demand for the Model 3, a move that raises gross margins by an additional 2% would be welcomed by investors. The bad news out today was a Consumers Report statement of Model 3 that was not very complimentary, but the market largely dismissed the CR report as most automotive magazines have been raving about this vehicle instead.
Looking at the technical chart, you can see what the shorts have been looking for: another panic dip below 250. Unfortunately for them, longs just aren't in much of a mood to sell these days, with Model 3 ramp up on track (at last!) and the fireworks of reaching 5,000/wk looking to be weeks away, rather than months or years. As long as the ramp up remains on track. I strongly suspect that Elon will indeed be right and TSLA should show GAAP positive earnings in Q3 and Q4.
Back to the technical chart, you can see that today's trading brings TSLA once again comfortably above the lower bollinger band. Whether TSLA makes a break towards the upper bb this week or falls prey to more pressure from shorts remains to be seen. The good news is that time now favors the longs. Once word of good Model 3 ramp up numbers start to come out in early June after the production pause, the SP should respond favorably. Today's positive trading helps buy longs time until that event.
Stepping back a bit from daily trading, Tesla has succeeded in defining the battery electric vehicle as the future of the automobile. Various European countries are now stating drop-dead dates for ICE vehicle sales. Once parity in costs is achieved with Ice vehicles (should happen soon), it really is game over as consumers quickly realize what we Tesla drivers already know: an EV with the performance and range of a Tesla beats the pants off comparable ICE vehicles in terms of cost of ownership, reliability, and quality of the driving experience. Furthermore, no serious competitor to Tesla in the EV space has yet to emerge, which gives Tesla a nice run for a few years before competitive vehicles can be produced in numbers. Tesla will indeed produce Model 3s at reasonable gross margins, setting the stage for a massive unwinding of short interest which will do amazing things to the stock price. Tesla's penetration of the China market will be a huge story once its factory in Shanghai is completed and cranking out vehicles. Consider, too, the implications of Tesla taking 60-90 days to pay suppliers. At some point, Tesla will get payments for nearly 30,000 vehicles ahead of their need to pay for such the raw materials. That leap in production should generate over a billion dollars in free cash flow (which should wake up a few of the bears). The past few weeks have been frustrating for TSLA longs, so it is good to keep the big picture in mind.
Conditions:
* Dow up 298 (1.21%)
* NASDAQ up 40 (0.54%)
* TSLA 284.49 (2.77%)
* TSLA volume 8.5M shares
* Oil 72.54, up 1.27 (1.78%)
* Percentage of TSLA selling by shorts: 62.8%
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adiggs
Well-Known Member
I don't have a handle on just how big this can get to, but one way of thinking about it is that (round numbers) we have beneficial ownership of about 210M shares of TSLA at $285/share, on 170M shares outstanding plus another 40M shares short.
For the shorts to fully exit their position, they need to reduce the beneficial ownership of the company from 210M shares to 170M shares. There's demand for 210M shares at $285 - how high does the price need to go to get 40M shares worth of ownership to part with their shares?
Especially with the expected and impending good news on production clearing 5k/week that we've all been waiting to hear for 6+ months.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Just to put things in perspective, The Tencent acquisition was 5%, or ~8 million shares, and we ran up from <$200 to >$300
adiggs
Well-Known Member
8M shares and we see a ~40% increase in share price. As those short shares are removed from circulation, the effect on the share price will be non-linear.
If we assume it's 40% per 8M shares, and each 40% compounds on the previous 40%, then $300 (chosen to make the math easy) turns into $420, and then $586, and then ~$820, and then ~$1150. And still leaves ~8M shares outstanding.
Not an advice, or even a particularly rigorous treatment.
It does illustrate why even if I thought Tesla were heading for 0, I'd be waiting for a higher price first before selling - there are too many people crowded into the position right now. One bit of good news, or more likely a sustained series of bits of good news, and there's going to be a crowd at the door trying to get out.
Edit: On additional reflection, if we divide the current share price by 10, then this sets up an awful lot like the previous run from the low 30's to the 180's. Just at 1 higher order of magnitude.
I and all my heirs and successors hope you are right!
Today TSLA fell prey to news that the Consumers Report story about inconsistent braking distances for Model 3 has substance behind it and Elon Musk has vowed a quick solution. Musk raised the possibility of the solution possibly being as simple as a software revision. We'll just have to see, but since Musk responded in a level-headed fashion and the possibility exists for a quick solution to the matter, it may be entirely possible that the event can highlight the value of over-the-air software updates. Fingers crossed. Other good news includes the willingness of Consumers Report to re-evaluate Model 3 after Tesla's fix is completed.
NASDAQ Daily Chart
As the day progressed, word came out that the U.S.-China trade deal might be on more slippery ground than originally suspected, and both the major indexes sold off significantly in the final 45 minutes. Notice that the decline of TSLA during that time period was extremely muted compared to that of the broader markets, suggesting fairly strong support at the 275 level. The very high (63.5%) of selling that relates to shorts today suggests that such downward pressure on the SP is being influenced by strong artificial forces that nonetheless lacked the ability for a strong push down in the final 45 minutes (Let's hope it's not shorts buying to cover their trades during the day and readying for a lively tomorrow).
Conditions:
* Dow down 179 (0.72%)
* NASDAQ down 16 (0.21%)
* TSLA 275.01, down 9.48 (3.33%)
* TSLA volume 8.8M shares
* Oil 71.91, down 0.29 (0.40%)
* Percentage of trading by TSLA shorts: 63.5%
Today was one of those telling days if you can read the tea leaves. Yes, we saw TSLA jump way up on open and then of course the shorts went to work pulling it back down. With over 180,0000 shares traded on the opening minute and over 140,000 shares traded on the closing minute, someone is busy covering their daily shorting to reload on ammo. After the shorts quickly walked the opening burst down, we saw a slow walk-down until TSLA went red and then two hours of "whack-the-mole" trying to keep TSLA red, which fell apart at 2pm. Then came capping to keep TSLA below 277 and that cap fell apart in the final half hour of trading. Even though shorts did 59% of the selling today, they couldn't control the SP. I see such a failure as an omen that the stock has what it takes to rise in the near-term, macros and surprise news allowing. Since I am already at max TSLA load (I backed up the truck when TSLA was at 250), I have instead been advising some family members that now is a good time to pick up some TSLA. I see the risk of a fast run-up being far greater than the risk of significantly lower SP in the near-term. The risk of buying now is that we'll see about a week of production pause for M3, which could give the shorts an opening, but again I see the possibility of good news, maybe a single tweet, sending TSLA heading upward that I'm willing to take a chance with a mild dip in order to avoid missing a buy before the SP takes off.
What brought about such a change in dynamics with TSLA? I think the negative news cycle is calming down, both because Ben Kallo of Baird called out the media for a month-long effort at trashing TSLA and because a tweet-storm by Elon today speaks of a rating system for the media regarding Tesla news so that visitors to the site can call out flaky journalism. For those flaky journalists who live on hits at any cost to integrity, this new policy will be a rude wake-up call.
We also saw Tesla register another 7200 Model 3 VINS. How's that for a shot over the bow?
Looking at the technical chart, you can see that the lower bb has descended to 272.52, which makes possible a $6.50 dip from here, but we also see the upper bb at 310.81, which makes a $30+ rise in the shorter-term a real possibility. You can see how quickly TSLA rises from the lower bb to the upper bb when it gets with it. If the negative news cycle calms down now and if some good news (an easy over-the-air fix to Model 3 braking, for example) comes about, I could see us heading to the upper bb in short order.
Conditions:
* Dow up 52 (0.21%)
* NASDAQ up 48 (0.64%)
* TSLA 279.07, up 4.06 (1.48%)
* TSLA volume 5.9M shares
* Oil 71.84, down 0.36 (0.50%)
In many ways, today was similar to yesterday's trading, but the main difference was that today the macros were neutral to slightly down and yesterday they were up. As a result, TSLA didn't do as well as yesterday. We began today with shorts putting in a commendable effort at a mandatory morning dip, but the SP bounced right off 275 (still a strong support level!) and even though the broader markets dipped noticeably at 11am, TSLA continued to climb into the green on the momentum from that 275 bounce. The rest of the day was a game of "whack-the-mole" with TSLA approaching the green and shorts selling whatever was necessary to keep it out of green territory.
Today this news story by TheStreet really did a good job of summarizing where Tesla is in the Model 3 production process and that shorting TSLA at this point is nuts. I quite agree with the shorting assessment, but it suggests to me a dark side to TSLA shorting, which is that a good many of the shorts are apparently more interested in trying to prevent Tesla from succeeding than in protecting their money that is on the line by shorting. The less logical (in terms of profiting from the short) the behavior of the shorts becomes, the more apparent the motivations of some of them. In any event, The Street article points out that one of the toughest bottlenecks in the whole Model 3 assembly process, the battery/chassis mating, has recently demonstrated that it can run at greater than the 5,000 M3/wk rate.
More good news today:
* South Australia politicians are ready to move ahead with plan to introduce 50,000 Tesla Powerwalls in residential homes aimed at creating a virtual powerplant (see this electrek.co story).
* Apparently all is moving along smoothly and quickly with Tesla's unannounced Shanghai factory and the company has already signed documents with the city's government (see @Vinvin218 's post).
Chart from shortvolume.com showing percentage of selling by TSLA shorts (blue line, read on right side of chart).
Conditions:
* Dow down 75 (0.30%)
* NASDAQ down 2 (0.02%)
* TSLA 277.85, down 1.22 (0.44%)
* TSLA volume 4.1M shares
* Oil 70.71, down 1.13 (1.57%)
* Percentage of TSLA selling by shorts: 58%
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pz1975
Active Member
It feels a lot like November 2016 when the stock was at $180 and I couldn’t understand why it staying so low. I remember saying to investing friends of mine that the market was nuts to have TSLA so low with everything that was happening and about to happen.
I feel the exact same way now.
I feel the exact same way now.
for info, the official 'short interest' data was released y'day by the Nasdaq :
https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/short-interest#.UXN9vrX-HnE
=> no real change (a decrease of 200k (over the last 15 days) is nothing
https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/short-interest#.UXN9vrX-HnE
=> no real change (a decrease of 200k (over the last 15 days) is nothing
bdy0627
Active Member
Maybe but the macro environment is very different now with the market no longer trending up, a pretty hawkish Fed, a rising LIBOR rate. I think the market is feeling that the best growth is now behind it rather than in front of it. TSLA benefited from a huge rising tide in 2017. That was a necessary ingredient for that climb. I'm not expecting that we get that this time. It doesn't mean that TSLA can't climb strongly, and it does have the huge short interest to help propel it up when it gets going, but we should be cautious about expectations right now.
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