FTFY
But yeah, only those that actually own the stock can drive the price down today. And I'm sure not selling into a dip.
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But yeah, only those that actually own the stock can drive the price down today. And I'm sure not selling into a dip.
Well, I'm glad I was able to find the capital for a small purchase on Friday. (I'm getting close to being too heavily invested for my liking.)
If Shorts are forced to buy at the highest Offered price...
What am I missing here?
The rule only impacts the ability to *sell* borrowed shares (to sell short). It allows longs to sell at market rate (and bring the price down), but forces shorts to sell a little above market rate. So they have to wait for someone to accept their attempt to sell. There is no change for anyone buying shares (short or long).
This doesn't really (financially) harm shortsellers, because they still get to buy low, sell high. They just forced to wait for a better deal and sell a bit higher.
The point is that longs are allowed to exit a crashing market first, without the shorts artificially exacerbating the situation. The rule protects the long investor by giving them a day's grace period to get out after some really bad news if they want to.
Hot dang! Although I didn't get in this morning (but I bought a bunch at 280 last week), today's trading is just what TSLA needs.We're erasing the panic dip from Friday, which is a great setup for defining that TSLA has bottomed out and is ready to climb. I still think the shorts will consider a mandatory morning dip tomorrow, but if today's gains are high enough it'll be a much more half-hearted effort, and if that dip fades into another climb into the green, then TSLA will have turned the corner.
yep, i messed up. the drubbing i’ve taken in tsla has blurred my vision. it’s clearly shown on the trader workstation.
thx @Papafox
Want to see what TSLA trading looks like with a combination of good news and the SEC uptick rule in effect? Voila! One thing I see missing is the typical downward stairstep chipping away of the SP after peaks. Take a look at Friday's trading on the previous page and you will notice the immediate recovery after the uptick rule went into effect at 9:40am and the lack of the deep icicles which were the result of deep selling followed by near recoveries. I would say that both positive days and negative days look much less mountainous once the uptick rule kicks in. Yes, I definitely believe it makes a difference.
Originally, when TSLA was up about $10 this morning, I though the shorts would plan a big mandatory morning dip tomorrow and try to reestablish the downtrend, but after such a strong showing today, the verdict is out how effective their effort will be. I think they'll try. My guess is that the shorts see Elon's recent behavior as the dread that longs feel at the moment and they will test to see if they can turn that dread into fear by trying for a sizable dip. We live in interesting times. If there is a dip, though, and if it climbs convincingly back into the green after that, I think we'll have yet another nice day. I really think that uptick rule gave us a much better climb today than we would have seen and may give the longs the optimism needed to overpower the shorts tomorrow.
Amazingly, shorts still did 60.67% of TSLA selling today, despite the uptick rule in effect. Looks like the uptick rule did indeed diminish the effectiveness of their efforts.
Looking at the tech chart, you can see that we want to get the SP over 310 ASAP so that the price starts dragging the middle bollinger band upward and starts creating headroom for climbing to come. Notice, too, that the blue 50 day moving average is sitting only 50 cents above the red 200 DMA, and if we can get that 50 DMA running back above the 200 DMA (where it belongs!) we'll get the technical traders feeling better about TSLA again.
Conditions:
* Dow down 59 (0.23%)
* NASDAQ up 22 (0.27%)
* TSLA 285.50, up 22.26 (8.46%)
* TSLA volume 14.0M shares
* Oil 67.55, down 0.20 (0.30%)
* Percent of TSLA trading by shorts: 60.67%
But what good news other than a few very good reviews of the Model 3? Most of the news stories (aka FUD) are still screaming that TSLA is risky because of Musk. I just don't see any momentum for the upside until the end of this month. Will fundamentals at least keep things reasonably stable until then? Will investors who don't yet grasp that TSLA is on the cusp of being a cash generator see these prices as bargains and keep pressure against the shorting?
The good news is the reorganization with Jerome as President of Automotive and the (confusing) part about "producing and delivering double" this quarter.
A strong reversal on high volume after a panic sell for non-material reasons may push it back into an uptrend and then it gains momentum as people buy in anticipation of end of month delivery numbers. It's not 'news' that will move the share price up, it's smart money buying at low prices knowing profitability is coming soon.
Wow, still 60.8% short selling on a day where Rule 201 is in effect?? Either that's crazy, or shorts have less of an effect on the stock price than we think it does.
Sudre
Active Member
The shorts have the exact effect we think they do and this proves it. The rule stopped the shorts from dumping huge masses of shares to crash the price. It did not stop them from slowing the uptrend. Without the up-tick rule they can just dump shares at the lowest price offered and quickly drive the price down.
What we saw today is how shorting is supposed to work to keep aggressive buying under control.
The SEC should review shorting rules since it is now clear it is used in it's current form to drive down the SP of a company strictly for manipulation purposes.
I'm totally ignorant of technical analysis and scared to death of day trading. Also, I despised the shrub's reliance on his gut. I do have an almost instinctive feel for politics, however, and just have the feeling the times are about to change. That has some objective evidence in the two coming quarterlies. Maybe my wind snifter tells me even blockheads are going to get the point of Musk and Tesla—maybe now.
To quote our most nobly haired leader, "we shall see."
how do you calculate
No calculations necessary, FINRA does it and then sites like volumebot.com and shortvolume.com create graphs and present it on a daily basis.
tsla | Volumebot
Today the shorts did over 65% of TSLA selling, throwing their best manipulations at creating as much red as possible today. Before my commentary, though, I want you to compare today's trading above with yesterday's and Friday's to see how different trading looks on days when the SEC uptick rule is in effect.
Here's Friday's trading, also a red day. Notice after 9:40am how the deep "icicles" disappear, especially compared to the chart above? This is because the icicles are an artifact from the manipulative churning of shares (selling at critical times in huge quantities, buying back in measured quantities, then repeating).
Now, here's yesterday's trading chart, which shows a day when the uptick rule is active for the whole day. Notice the lack of the definite downward "stair steps" you would normally see leading from every peak to a considerably lower number before the SP recovers again. Notice the much smoother trading and lack of inverted icicles or stalagmites. Notice that odd green color to the chart!
My point is that you can visually see the artifacts of short-seller manipulations on daily trading charts and that the past two trading days have given us an exceptional opportunity to see just what these charts would look like if the short-selling was less intrusive. Still, the shorts were responsible for about 59% of Friday's and about 60% of Monday's trading. Anyway, the differences, both in terms of effect upon stock price and the visual shapes of the charts, are dramatic.
Regarding today's trading, we were originally planning on the shorts to throw in lots of resources and do a big mandatory morning dip (because they want to reestablish a downtrend) and then we bulls could see if TSLA would recover into the green or not (in order to judge whether we could kiss this downtrend goodbye for good). Unfortunately, two developments had a negative effect upon the SP: Gene Munster calling for changes on the Tesla Board to make it more independent (and therefore more capable of throttling back Elon when he got out of line) and fellow Tesla bull analyst Romit Shah slashing his price target for TSLA and saying TSLA is no longer tradable unless Musk changes his behavior. With these developments, TSLA wasn't going green today. As expected, shorts engineered a big dip today, but they couldn't hold it. Looking at the trading chart, you can see that keeping TSLA below 275 looked to be their target for the day, but as afternoon arrived buyers bumped the SP up to nearly 280.
For tomorrow, TSLA is in a similar situation, but (hopefully) without the bad news. Expect lots of short manipulations tomorrow, too, with shorts looking to show red for the day and buyers likely to put upward pressure on any price below 280 and then maybe 285. I wouldn't be surprised to see a prolonged whack-the-mole effort if TSLA approaches the red/green line. TSLA needs to reestablish the uptrend after today's trading.
Shorts sold nearly two-thirds (65%) of TSLA shares today and tomorrow could be really big too. Mercy!
Meanwhile, good news arrived today in this post from Worm Capital. The group was given a tour of the gigafactory and believes all is set for Tesla to move to 6,000 M3s with no capital expenditure then 7,000 and 8,0000 M3s with minimal expenditure. They also say something important which is so much of the GF1 is on the way to become autonomous. The lack of available labor in Northern Nevada is a big threat to Tesla, and the automation will take care of that threat. You also get a chance to understand how the automation is going to bring down the cost of making Model 3s and allow good GMs even when lower-cost standard battery Model 3s are introduced into the production process. Great report.
Conditions:
* Dow up 114 (0.44%)
* NASDAQ up 48 (0.61%)
* TSLA 279.44, down 6.06 (2.12%)
* TSLA volume 9.1M shares
* Oil 69.85, up 0.60 (0.87%)
* Percent of TSLA selling by shorts: 65.05%
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Today was a big day for TSLA as it reaffirms that a rally is underway. Looking at the lumpiness of the trading, it was apparent that the shorts were up to their mischief, but they didn't count on the buyers returning with such a vengeance today. Notice the uniform stair steps down from the 1pm and 2pm highs. That's classic short manipulations. Looks like the 9:40am dip was the MMD. By about 10am, the NASDAQ was down very considerably but TSLA ignored it and kept climbing. The climb into close suggests shorts covering out of fear that this stock is on its way higher... and they are likely right! For one good reason, check out the chart below.
For the past nine months, the best trading strategy for TSLA would have been to buy when the SP starts rising above the lower bollinger band and then sell when it starts dropping from the upper bollinger band. This would have been a spectacularly successful trading method. A variation would be to leverage up on the lower bb and get rid of the leverage once on the upper bb. In any event, looking since January of this year, there aren't many instances when TSLA has started higher and failed to reach the upper bb or started lower and failed to hit the lower bb. For this reason, it'll be nice to get TSLA above the mid bb (currently at 304.24) so that we can start raising that upper bb! Large swings in SP will also help.
Looking for exceptions to the ping-pong game between upper and lower bb theory, you can see that there are a few near-misses of the upper or lower bb when the reversal occurs. In April-May, the rally stalled until the upper bb came down to meet it. Take a look, too, at July 23 when the rally failed and we ran along the lower bb for a while, but TSLA still managed to hit the upper bb by early August, so using the bb to bb strategy would have worked. My point, though, is that once we start climbing, we usually go up to the upper bb and either bounce there or force the upper bb to climb with the stock. Note that reality overrides technicals. If Elon were to become irresponsible on twitter tomorrow, we're heading down for that lower bb quickly. I don't think that will happen, though. The 3Q delivery numbers and ER should support the rise to the next upper bb and help to push it higher.
What causes the ping pong effect from upper to lower bb and return is of course the effect of short-selling. Downtrends and uptrends are both exaggerated. Take a look at Ihor Dusaniwsky's latest tweet about TSLA. It's amazing but true that right at the bottom of this dip millions of new shares of TSLA were shorted. Earlier today TSLA was up to 33.5 million shares shorted, and as some of these shorts cover, that covering will propel much of our next climb. For some reason, their strategy of selling low and buying high just isn't very profitable.
Percent of TSLA selling by shorts was down a bit today, to 60.2%
What I expect to see now is declining percentage of selling as shorts realize that manipulating a rising stock is a losing proposition
Congratulations longs on a very successful trading day.
Conditions:
* Dow up 28 (0.11%)
* NASDAQ down 18 (0.23%)
* TSLA 290.54, up 11.10 (3.97%)
* TSLA volume 9.8M shares
* Oil 70.21, down 0.16 (0.21%)
Great analysis, a goldmine of info.
About the range ping pong, I believe there are traders at both extremes who, when it gets to the top or bottom of the range, think this is it. It's going to zero or $1000 and the fear of missing out get them in. Then when the price reverses they get squeezed out accelerating the opposite swing.
I think the break out above the range is coming soon though, it will need good news from Q3 to push through, but given how long the upper range has been building the breakout will be extremely powerful.
About the range ping pong, I believe there are traders at both extremes who, when it gets to the top or bottom of the range, think this is it. It's going to zero or $1000 and the fear of missing out get them in. Then when the price reverses they get squeezed out accelerating the opposite swing.
I think the break out above the range is coming soon though, it will need good news from Q3 to push through, but given how long the upper range has been building the breakout will be extremely powerful.
Good point. When there's really good news, such as at a deliveries report or ER, the stock is capable of punching through the upper bollinger band. The reason most of us are invested in TSLA is to benefit from new all time highs. Those ATHs can be reached by a sustained march that pulls the upper bb along with it, or they can be preceded by single events that punch through the upper bb. For this reason, some judgment is needed as the SP reaches the upper bb.
Also, once a new ATH is established, there can and will be pullbacks. In theory, those pullbacks will be limited by a new (higher) low in a higher trading range. Until the number of shares sold short is dramatically reduced and doesn't refill easily, there will continue to be volatility with this stock and we will continue to see fairly large fluctuations of the SP, but at higher and higher trading ranges.
Sudre
Active Member
The whole ATH part is the trick as to why I don’t short. There will never be a new all time low in my opinion. There will be new ATHs for quite some time to come so buying in isn’t a matter of risk, just how long can you hold.
With about 250,000 shares picked up in the first and last minutes of the day, the shorts are still busy manipulating and reloading, though.
Consider that time is now very much favoring the longs. In little over 2 weeks, the Q3 delivery numbers will be out and TSLA should see a nice jump upwards. As that date approaches, investors will be positioning themselves for the event and so we should see appreciation before the October 2 event. The other time advantage that longs have is gaining distance from recent Elon Musk events that caused concern in investors, namely the announced departure of the CAO right after Musk's Rogan interview. I think the events of the past week will most likely cause far more serious reflection in Elon than previous events because two bull analysts spoke very critically of the events (and the board's position) and a top institutional investor weighed in on the negativity of the behaviors. Elon can ignore the opinions of his detractors, but he and the board can't ignore the calls for change from Tesla's strongest supporters. Musk is a very intelligent person and I'm sure he understands it's time for restraint and time to instead get those vehicles delivered! The more time we get with Elon behaving in a fashion that doesn't negatively affect the stock price, the less the hangover will be from his previous behaviors. The idea is to make the behaviors issue a non-issue by the time the Q3 deliveries are announced so that media attention can rightly be focused on the incredible accomplishment by this company, should it meet stated goals.
Shorts saw an opportunity with some TSLA traders distracted today by the NIO IPO and did 60.68% of the selling today. It didn't get them very far.
Conditions:
* Dow up 147 (0.57%)
* NASDAQ up 59 (0.75%)
* TSLA 289.46, down 1.08 (0.37%)
* TSLA volume 6.2M shares
* Oil 68.79, up 0.20 (0.29%)
* Percent of TSLA selling by shorts: 60.68%
> ... two bull analysts spoke very critically of the events ...
Three. Jamie Albertine also turned bearish in mid-August due to concerns of Musk's behaviors.
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