Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

[Papafox]

Today TSLA opened well up in pre-market trading as retail longs scooped up shares after the Morgan Stanley/Adam Jonas $500 price target was placed on his bull-scenario for Tesla. This would definitely not be a sell-the-event type of news, so I was amazed to see the stock actually dip on open at 9:30am with over 400K shares traded that minute. Soon afterwards, however, investors bid the stock price above 338, which became the whack-a-mole price and throughout the morning any additional excursions above 338 were met with an immediate "Whack!" By 1pm the capping (going hand in hand with whack-a-mole) dipped to 337ish. Shorts got greedy and tried a push-down after 2pm, which was met with a momentary rally which had to be whacked, and then TSLA was capped below 336 for the final hour, with a likely strategy to engineer a last-minute push-down to 335 for the close. Alas, buyers turned up and neutralized the type of dip into close we've been seeing most of this week.

I have to hand shortie credit for a week well-played. This stock really wanted to run higher on Monday and Tuesday despite the poor macros, and when the macros turned green on Wednesday, shortie was ready with a big Mandatory Morning Dip.

The somewhat tame TSLA run-up today included pieces of good news that should have been enough to generate a greater run higher. We learned that China-made Teslas will be eligible for subsidies from local governments, we learned that the one shift at GF3 is turning out about 100 M3s/day and when the factory moves to 3 shifts it will be at an interpolated rate of 2100 M3s/week. We learned that Tesla has indeed received authorization from China to begin selling the GF3 Teslas. Add these news pieces to the Adam Jonas upgrade on Thursday, and you have ammunition for a nice rally.

The one missing news item was the verdict in the Unsworth trial. About 5:40pm word came out that Elon won and has to pay no damages. Although this trial was noise and not particularly Tesla-specific news, it did affect the stock price this week. Moreover, a loss by Elon would have given the click-bait journalists we know too well ammunition to harass Musk in an all new excuse for FUD. That opportunity has now, thankfully, been extinguished.

If you tune in CNBC you will see that the FUD against Tesla has shifted to:
* This is not a good price at which to buy TSLA. Wait until it is down to 290 or so before getting in
* Q3 results remain under a cloud because some sneaky accounting tricks are still suspect. How else could the company turn a profit? If profits were somehow pulled forward, then Q4 cannot be the even better quarter that Musk has been referring to

The NASDAQ opened up and stayed up all day, to close up 1%

Shorts were tagged with 54.5% of TSLA selling on Friday

Looking at the tech chart, notice the lower bollinger band is all the way up to 322 now. You don't have far to fall before encountering the safety net, but there's really no good reason to fall. Instead, the upper bb is more of a concern at only 360. Let's hope Monday's trading is robust enough to get the bollinger bands running uphill again. My guess is we'll look back on this chart and realize this past week's trading was a side-show that momentarily delayed the climb out of the second bowl.

We're now not much further than 3 weeks from the end of Q4 and the P&D report. Expect stock price climbing into that report and after the report if Tesla continues production at its current rate and encounters no major snags in delivering North American vehicles in these remaining weeks. If 97K vehicles created a decent profit in Q3, 105+K vehicles (quite possibly 110K or more) should produce noticeably better profits. If Elon mentions at the Q4 ER that Q1 will be profitable, then the stock price has a big run. Consider the possibility of Model Y coming into prooduction in Q1 and the certainty of M3 production taking off from GF3, and there's reason for optimism. Q1 profits strongly suggest S&P 500 inclusion, and on top of all the good news we have big funds loading up on TSLA. No wonder Jonas mentioned the possibility of this stock running up to $500.

Current guidance is for Q1 to be a tough quarter, so don't bet too confidently that everything will work perfectly in the near term. Nonetheless, the year 2020 is looking potentially huge, and if you keep your focus far enough in the future your investment in TSLA should work well. Personally, I'm all in now. If Q1 involves a dip, I ride it out, and if there's no dip but instead good news, I'm already positioned. Those who sat out the Q3 ER understand how expensive timing a re-entry can be. Given the number of shorts yet to be squeezed out, once things start getting good they can continue that way without a sufficient dip for people on the sidelines to waltz in.

When does the fun begin? None of the recent good news has been priced in yet, and I include pre-orders of cybertruck and a real about face regarding cybertruck's potential in that news. Macros, noise, and manipulations have held this stock back the past couple weeks but all we need is one day when the whack-a-mole fails and this stock is ready to gallop upwards. The volume from a Tesla rally would prevent you-know-who from stopping it once underway. Elon's court victory will add fuel to Monday's already substantial potential, so let's see what happens.

For the week, TSLA closed at 335.89, up 6.05 from last Friday's 329.84. Really looking forward to the next few weeks. Have a great weekend.

Conditions:
* Dow up 337 (1.22%)
* NASDAQ up 86 (1.00%)
* TSLA 335.89, up 5.52 (1.67%)
* TSLA volume 5.52M shares
* Oil 59.20
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 54.5%

 

[Papafox]

I'd like to clarify a point from the post above. Elon's comments regarding Q1 being tough were from an earning's call and were specifically referring to quarter over quarter improvement in deliveries. Nonetheless, if there's a dip in Q1 2020 deliveries compared to Q4 2019, the usual suspects will of course try to draw conclusions such as "demand is waning." OTOH, Tesla has known for a while that Q1 is typically harder than Q4 because of seasonality (not counting the U.S. tax step-down and the tax change in the Netherlands) and they have been setting up other markets to pick up some of the slack in Q1. Iceland finally gets Model 3s, Australia is hungry for more, there's a move into Eastern Europe, etc. These steps might be enough to keep the vehicles moving in Q1, but there's no guarantee how the final numbers will work out.

My point is that there's one scenario we know of that could potentially negatively influence the stock price in Q1. As a general rule, there are always threats out there to short-term trading in TSLA. A vehicle with a new autopilot feature might run a stop-sign, for example, and get into a nasty wreck. For all these reasons, keeping your TSLA investments focused far enough in the future is the best way to avoid getting tripped up by a short-term dip.

That said, as I weighed the chances of dips vs. the likelihood of the stock running higher, I concluded for my personal investing that I wanted to be at my desired investment level right now, rather than leaving dry powder for a future date.

 

[jbcarioca]

I'd like to clarify a point from the post above. ...
That said, as I weighed the chances of dips vs. the likelihood of the stock running higher, I concluded for my personal investing that I wanted to be at my desired investment level right now, rather than leaving dry powder for a future date.

What is your perspective on GF-3 deliveries impact on Q-1?
Do you expect TE to be consequential in GAAP terms for Q-1?
Do you expect growth in the Canadian Prairies and north central US due to the completion of coast-to-coast Supercharger access and improved Service access?
If Model Y production begins in Q-1 will that have a direct effect in market terms?

From your discussions and those of others, it might seem logical that the loss of incentives in the US and Netherlands might be enough to reduce Q-1 despite continued growth from UK (normally quite strong for auto sales in Q-1 for automakers), Korea and newer eastern European markets.

Lastly, you have made limited discussion of the distribution system improvements.

None of these issues fits neatly in technical analysis, but they all might be materially influential in reducing the market influence of short sellers. Further, if TE were to become materially additive it could quite easily turn GAAP sufficiently to advance index inclusion.

While I have opinions, I have more confidence in yours than I do in mine, at least in terms of market reactions. In accounting terms I am much more comfortable and there I expect the net effect of all those factors is highly likely to produce GAAP positive Q-1, probably very small, but positive.

 

[Papafox]

What is your perspective on GF-3 deliveries impact on Q-1?
Do you expect TE to be consequential in GAAP terms for Q-1?
Do you expect growth in the Canadian Prairies and north central US due to the completion of coast-to-coast Supercharger access and improved Service access?
If Model Y production begins in Q-1 will that have a direct effect in market terms?

From your discussions and those of others, it might seem logical that the loss of incentives in the US and Netherlands might be enough to reduce Q-1 despite continued growth from UK (normally quite strong for auto sales in Q-1 for automakers), Korea and newer eastern European markets.

Lastly, you have made limited discussion of the distribution system improvements.

None of these issues fits neatly in technical analysis, but they all might be materially influential in reducing the market influence of short sellers. Further, if TE were to become materially additive it could quite easily turn GAAP sufficiently to advance index inclusion.

While I have opinions, I have more confidence in yours than I do in mine, at least in terms of market reactions. In accounting terms I am much more comfortable and there I expect the net effect of all those factors is highly likely to produce GAAP positive Q-1, probably very small, but positive.

Let me reproduce your question and place an answer in the main investor's forum. So much of what I hope to do with my answers is stimulate further discussion, especially with investors who have greater skills in particular areas than me.

 

[SageBrush]

Let me reproduce your question and place an answer in the main investor's forum. So much of what I hope to do with my answers is stimulate further discussion, especially with investors who have greater skills in particular areas than me.

I'm interested too. Please place a link here to your answer

 

[Papafox]

Here's the link to my answer to @jbcarioca 's question.

Here's the link to an excellent reply by @jbcarioca regarding potential gaap profits in 4Q19 and 1Q20 and other pertinent aspects of upcoming events

 

[Papafox]

The usual Monday morning buying exuberance came alive today as minor pre-market optimism was converted to a moderate rally after a tiny Mandatory Morning Dip was quickly dispatched and bulls took the reigns. Quite a large quantity of manipulation was likely involved in trying to control the run-up and then give it a push-down into close as we saw 257K of shares trade hands in a pre-arranged trade just 5 minutes before market open, a massive 518K shares trade in the closing minute of market trading, and an additional 218K shares traded at 5:44pm. These kinds of trades only typically appear when there is high percentage of selling by shorts, and they've been appearing regularly over the past few weeks.

Put on your hedge-fund hat for a second and imagine that you are trying to make some money from TSLA this week. Maybe you sold calls that expire Friday at strike prices up to 350 and you're trying to minimize the number that come into the money on Friday's close. On the other hand, maybe you're mostly concentrating your shorting on placing a cap where you think you can control the SP for the remainder of the day, begin a push-down, and cover at lower prices in late afternoon to make a profit directly from your manipulations. I mean, it has to be profitable if you start your short-selling at 343 and do your covering between 341 and 339. Maybe you bought in the pre-market arranged trade, at 4:00pm, and at 5:44pm. Those three times would have allowed you to buy nearly a million shares without pushing the stock price higher, and that's far more shares than you'd need to manipulate to your heart's content. Here's the problem I'm seeing, though: who was selling big at these three events? It likely wasn't shorts, because if they're selling they're going to want to do the selling at times that adversely affect the stock price and these times are specifically designed to not affect the stock price much. More likely, the seller is someone who is long, but why on earth would they be selling big last week and this week? The bowl dip has resolved into a climb, or at least has a good start at doing that, and Q4 production and deliveries look extremely promising. Why divest now, especially with the stock price climbing? Perhaps the reason is macros related and some institution is trimming holdings prior to the Dec. 15 date when more China tariffs go into effect. I am perplexed about the motivation.

News:
* The FUDsters went overboard today, trying to make a Model 3 running into a police car (and no one seriously hurt) become a major story. Yawn.
* This rumor reported by Vincent says that GF3 M3 production rate is up to 1000 vehicles per week now. If that is still one shift, then a rate of 3K/wk should now be possible. China could indeed be the big surprise going into Q1.

Although the NASDAQ peaked in the green a little before 10am, it closed down 0.40%. The 0.20% or so it lost after 2:10pm cannot justify TSLA's dip of nearly 1% during that timeframe. I suspect we were seeing the old game of using macros as an excuse for a dip on steroids heading into close.

Looking at the Opricot max pain graphs, you can see that options expiring on Friday aren't particularly high in numbers and that there's really no incentive for market makers to see TSLA close below 342.50 on Friday. The hedge funds could be another story if some haven't been Delta-hedging their sold calls.

Short-sellers with tagged with 55.5% of TSLA selling today

We're starting to see the slow rise of TSLA following the second bowl, but manipulations are heavy, still.

Overall, I'm happy with today's 1% climb, given the macro worries. As with last Monday, I think the stock could have had a much bigger day if the macros weren't a headwind. Overall, it makes sense for this stock to rise into the P&D Report in early January, and I continue to believe that what we're seeing with price action is due in large part to successful manipulations aimed at letting more short-sellers cover prior to a major breakout.

Conditions:
* Dow down 105 (0.38%)
* NASDAQ down 35 (0.40%)
* TSLA 339.53, up 3.64 (1.08%)
* TSLA volume 9.0M shares
* Oil 58.88
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 55.5%

 

[Stormy]

GF3 M3 production rate is up to 1000 vehicles per week now. If that is still one shift, then a rate of 3K/wk should now be possible.

Hey @Papafox , do we have any information that confirms that a single shift at GF3 is 8hrs? The other possibility is that they work 12hr shifts, and scaling that up then only doubles production. I know thats not particularly likely in a manufacturing setting, but that's coming from a Western worldview. I don't know how things usually operate in China.

 

[MP3Mike]

Hey @Papafox , do we have any information that confirms that a single shift at GF3 is 8hrs? The other possibility is that they work 12hr shifts, and scaling that up then only doubles production. I know thats not particularly likely in a manufacturing setting, but that's coming from a Western worldview. I don't know how things usually operate in China.

The original rumor said that a shift was 8 hours and they were making 100 cars per day. But all we have at this point is rumors.

From: 特拉风T☰SLA mania on Twitter

特拉风 T☰SLA mania

@Tesla__Mania

Giga Shanghai

update from my anonymous source (whose former colleague is now working in Giga 3) :

“Model 3 output on December 5 was 100 per 8 hours.
Currently production line runs 8 hours a day.”

100 per 8 hours translates to 2100 per week when Giga Shanghai goes 24x7.

 

[Papafox]

First, the news:
* Rumors suggest that Made in China Model 3s have begun or soon will begin delivery
* A photo of nearly 500 Model 3s in the GF3 parking lot has raised eyebrows
* BNP Paribas raised its TSLA price target from 300 to 400
So, which news item set TSLA off today? I think the actual reason is that TSLA was ready to fly last week, but macros, the Unsworth trial uncertainty, and manipulations held the climb to a mere $6. Add in today's news and shortie lost control of the stock price today. More specifically, if hedge funds have been the resistance to TSLA climbing higher, they were overwhelmed today by investors trying to pick up shares and could only manage a meager $1 push-down from the high. Might they have been giving us a head fake in order to really make some money pushing down tomorrow? The answer would likely be no because if you look at the percent of selling by shorts chart below, you can see that shortie was tagged with nearly 60% of today's TSLA selling. He was working it, but as we've seen, once the TSLA steamroller comes up to speed, shortie doesn't do well trying to stand in front of it and stop it. Additionally, the NASDAQ started dipping after 10:30am and did a big swan dive at about 3:20pm, but TSLA hardly felt it.

We in TMC Investor's threads have been aware for some time why TSLA should be rising into the Q4 P&D report. Sometimes getting too far ahead of the market can be expensive, for example if you bought about bunch of high-flying weekly calls last week. Keep your focus sufficiently in the future, however and you should do well with TSLA.

The NASDAQ closed down a mere 0.07% today

TSLA shorts were tagged with 59.5% of the trading today.

Looking at the tech chart, we're finally seeing that nice climb away from the second "bowl" that I thought would have happened last week. Let's keep an eye on the climb and see how similar it is to the previous climb out of the bowl. My biggest concern right now is that upper bollinger band sitting at 360. We could be bumping our head on 360 soon. Here's hoping we can nudge it higher soon.

Conditions:
* Dow down 28 (0.10%)
* NASDAQ down 6 (0.07%)
* TSLA 348.84, up 9.31 (2.74%)
* TSLA volume 8.8M shares
* Oil 59.10
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 59.5%

 

[TrendTrader007]

View attachment 486909
First, the news:
* Rumors suggest that Made in China Model 3s have begun or soon will begin delivery
* A photo of nearly 500 Model 3s in the GF3 parking lot has raised eyebrows
* BNP Paribas raised its TSLA price target from 300 to 400
So, which news item set TSLA off today? I think the actual reason is that TSLA was ready to fly last week, but macros, the Unsworth trial uncertainty, and manipulations held the climb to a mere $6. Add in today's news and shortie lost control of the stock price today. More specifically, if hedge funds have been the resistance to TSLA climbing higher, they were overwhelmed today by investors trying to pick up shares and could only manage a meager $1 push-down from the high. Might they have been giving us a head fake in order to really make some money pushing down tomorrow? The answer would likely be no because if you look at the percent of selling by shorts chart below, you can see that shortie was tagged with nearly 60% of today's TSLA selling. He was working it, but as we've seen, once the TSLA steamroller comes up to speed, shortie doesn't do well trying to stand in front of it and stop it. Additionally, the NASDAQ started dipping after 10:30am and did a big swan dive at about 3:20pm, but TSLA hardly felt it.

We in TMC Investor's threads have been aware for some time why TSLA should be rising into the Q4 P&D report. Sometimes getting too far ahead of the market can be expensive, for example if you bought about bunch of high-flying weekly calls last week. Keep your focus sufficiently in the future, however and you should do well with TSLA.

View attachment 486910
The NASDAQ closed down a mere 0.07% today

View attachment 486911
TSLA shorts were tagged with 59.5% of the trading today.


View attachment 486912
Looking at the tech chart, we're finally seeing that nice climb away from the second "bowl" that I thought would have happened last week. Let's keep an eye on the climb and see how similar it is to the previous climb out of the bowl. My biggest concern right now is that upper bollinger band sitting at 360. We could be bumping our head on 360 soon. Here's hoping we can nudge it higher soon.

Conditions:
* Dow down 28 (0.10%)
* NASDAQ down 6 (0.07%)
* TSLA 348.84, up 9.31 (2.74%)
* TSLA volume 8.8M shares
* Oil 59.10
* Percent of TSLA selling tagged to shorts: 59.5%

only 12 to 13 trading days left in this Quarter please note the position of quarterly chart I fully expect the RSI to go Well above 70 and turn down before $tsla was going downagain and quarterly Ballinger presages break out so expect at least another 1 to 2 Quarters of upside with substantial upside in rally left

 

[Papafox]

Wednesday's schedule is tough for me and so it's possible that the charts posting will be late. Will pedal as fast as I can!

 

[Papafox]

This will be an abbreviated post as I spent the day over the Pacific without internet access, and I’ll be racing to get this posted before jumping on my next plane. What we really need is for some really intelligent entrepreneur to create an affordable global internet constellation of low-earth-orbit satellites so that all airlines will provide affordable inflight internet on these long flights far, far from land. I’d buy stock in companies run by such a man, I really would.


The best way to look at this week’s trading is to compare the climb from the second bowl with the climb from the first bowl in the tech chart. For the most part, intensity and behavior is really much the same so far between the two climbs. I do not have access to news to integrate it into my analysis today, but looking at the NASDAQ chart you can see that TSLA was doing well as positive macros helped, but there wasn’t much correlation between the two on an hour to hour basis. Also, we saw a dip into close today, which I strongly suspect was your typical manipulative dip on steroids by you know who in order to minimize today’s damage. High percentage of selling by shorts today supports that theory.

Notice that in after-hours trading, TSLA closed above 354. Much of this rise could be because Jim Cramer admitted at market close to become "a true believer" in Tesla as his wife and daughter both order Tesla vehicles. I think the rise was also a matter of the market realizing that the push-down into close today for TSLA was a manipulation and so the market is rejecting that push and bidding the price of shares back up. Ether way, the strength of after-hours trading suggests a positive sentiment going into tomorrow's trading.

The NASDAQ closed up 0.44% today

Meanwhile, Dusaniwsky shows a steady stream of shorts covering. I think part of the reason for the manipulations is to keep the shorts from increasing this rate of covering and allowing the price of TSLA to rise at a rate that is out of reach for any manipulations.

Shorts were tagged with 58.5% of TSLA selling today. They're keeping the pressure on.

Looking at the tech chart, you can see that the upper Bollinger band hasn’t budged much yet, and we’re getting closer to where we’ll need it higher. The stock price 360 is an obvious point of resistance and it may well be a tough nut to crack. The worst case scenario would be an enthusiastic climb to 361 or so, followed by a hand bounce off the upper bb and the loss of 360. A much better scenario would be to consolidate somewhat through slower growth as we approach 360, allow the upper bb to climb further, and then take 360 with conviction and never look back as we climb toward a new All Time High. Thus, a slower climb today isn’t such a bad thing in the big scheme of things.

Conditions:
* Dow up 28 (0.10%)
* NASDAQ up 38 (0.44%)
* TSLA 352.70, up 3.86 (1.11%)
* TSLA volume 6.8M shares
* Oil 58.88
* Percent of selling tagged to TSLA shorts: 58.5%

 

[Papafox]

Today TSLA rose for its 5th day in a row and topped 360 several times during the day. Shortly after 10am TSLA reached nearly 362 before being pushed down but then came a prolonged game of whack-the-mole any time TSLA dared to rise above 360. As you can imagine, such an effort required lots of manipulations, and with 60.5% of selling tagged to shorts, there's evidence that shortie was working hard today to keep the stock rally from getting too far out of hand. We saw 180K shares traded in the first minute, 190K in the last minute of market trading, and about 118K in a single minute shortly before 10am as the stock price was racing for 360 and points north.

Rather than looking for a single piece of news to attribute today's climb, I think it's more useful to note that today was the 5th positive close day in a row for TSLA. It is finally making good on a couple weeks of substantial news that was overshadowed by significant manipulations, but once the rally began, the manipulators have lost control of the stock price.

The NASDAQ peaked a little after 10am, dipped, and then mostly recovered. You can see some correlation with TSLA's peak shortly after 10am.

Here's a graphic that @The Accountant posted in the main investor's thread today. It does a great job of showing the trading patterns we've been seeing lately. Often in the morning there's a rally which generates a quick climb and high of the day in the morning, followed by (in my opinion) a programmed walk-down of the SP, followed by a dip on steroids into close to remove some of the day's gains.

What's interesting is that today's dip on steroids began about 3pm, but with about 20 minutes of market trading left for the day, buyers started bidding the SP up and TSLA almost reclaimed 360 before the close. I see such a positive reversal of the pattern as bullish.

Shorts were tagged with 60.5% of TSLA selling today

Looking at the tech chart, you can see that TSLA climbed until it approached the upper bollinger band and then experienced a soft bounce which ultimately sent it back below 360. The good news is that the bounce was not a hard bounce that started the stock price in a downward trajectory. Instead, we actually have a good setup for taking 360 tomorrow. The upper bb is now at 363.19, giving some headroom for taking and holding 360 on Friday.

What to expect for Friday? Macros should be way up due to an agreement apparently reached between the U.S. and China on Phase 1 of the trade deal. The December 15 additional tariffs have been put aside, and the market is no longer fearful of a big dip that date. With the macros likely to soar on Friday, the obvious chess move of the shorts will be to generate a big enough MMD for TSLA that traders take their money elsewhere because just about every other stock will be up. The threat to such a plan is that if bulls turn the MMD back into a climb fairly quickly, that reversal would be bullish and the stock would climb. No matter who wins the MMD battle in the morning, expect the hedge funds to try a push-down into close, because the day will of course be an options expiration day. With the strength that TSLA is showing this week and the stock beginning the day mere pennies (or nickels and dimes) below 360, I think our chance of taking 360 tomorrow is pretty good. If 360 is successfully secured this week, it clears the way for additional climbing without obvious points of resistance in the near term.

Overall, I continue to believe that Tesla has such a roadmap for positive news over the next 13 months that a significant breakout is highly likely somewhere along the way. It's mostly a matter of when, and for this reason I continue to set my investment timetable sufficiently long term to capture the breakout, I refrain from playing potential dips in case it comes early (which is entirely possible), and my expectations are on the high side.

Conditions:
* Dow up 221 (0.79%)
* NASDAQ up 63 (0.73%)
* TSLA 359.68, up 6.98 (1.98%)
* TSLA volume 7.7M shares
* Oil 59.53
* Percent of selling tagged to TSLA shorts: 60.5%

 

[FrankSG]

What's interesting is that today's dip on steroids began about 3pm, but with about 20 minutes of market trading left for the day, buyers started bidding the SP up and TSLA almost reclaimed 360 before the close. I see such a positive reversal of the pattern as bullish.

Do you think there is any chance that traders have caught wind of the predictable pattern of the last 5 days, and decided to load up on shares right before close, planning to sell them during the rally the following morning?

 

[Papafox]

Do you think there is any chance that traders have caught wind of the predictable pattern of the last 5 days, and decided to load up on shares right before close, planning to sell them during the rally the following morning?

Almost certainly. Traders do figure such things out, which in time leads to the end of the pattern. For example, with push-downs into close, when these have been done too many times in a row you see traders buying right before close to capture the discount and then selling next day for a profit. As more traders buy in at end of day, they start generating a rise in stock price going into close, which eventually defeats the push-down strategy.

 

[SageBrush]

Almost certainly.

Rock, paper, scissors

 

[Papafox]

The broader markets ran high near opening, as expected, and TSLA (despite a push-down in pre-market leading up to the opening bell) topped 365 just 8 minutes after opening. Alas, the market started scrutinizing details of the China trade deal, became uneasy, and so we saw volatility in the broader markets with the NASDAQ dipping into the red and bottoming out about 11:20am or so. Handing the manipulative hedge funds a quick macro dip on an options close Friday when TSLA is above 360 (a major call buying price) is like dangling a pork chop in front of a hungry wolf. The results were just as predictable as the hedge funds ran with this opportunity. They increased the size of the dip by selling on the way down and then capped the price near the bottom of the dip, even though the NASDAQ dip quickly reverted back into a climb in the green zone. Thus TSLA experienced a sticky dip on steroids as the hedge funds sold as necessary to keep TSLA below 358 in order to prevent an excursion above 360 into close. At about 1:30pm the shorts sold hard enough to get TSLA down to nearly 355, but the stock price popped right back up (there was no appetite in longs to sell but appetite to buy at this nice discount). These dips are test dips to see if they can generate selling by others, and this time it was a no go. By 3:00pm TSLA was rising and threatening to run above 359 and so another selling streak was needed to dip it back to the capping zone, but longs suspected the stock would likely trade higher next week and bought into the close.

If you look at the trading chart above, you'll see two pre-arranged sales, one for 68K and one for 80K shares during after-hours trading. Again, these big pre-arranged sales are usually associated with volatility and high percentage of selling by shorts. On a positive note, the stock price rose higher in after-hours trading, suggesting a positive start to trading on Monday, macros allowing.

The NASDAQ was volatile today but managed to close up 0.20%

Shorts were tagged with 58.5% of TSLA selling on Friday

Looking at the tech chart, you can see TSLA getting its second soft-bounce off the upper bollinger band in as many days. With the upper bb at 364.60, there a bit more headroom to work with and news and macros allowing, 360 no longer looks like such a tough nut to crack. I'm expecting TSLA to be trading in the 360s next week.

Looking at the Opricot max pain chart, you can see that it's not until the price climbs above 350 where we find the call options consistently above the put options. Thus 347.50 to 350 would be a more effective max pain number than the one officially stated. With TSLA's momentum, though, points of resistance above the current SP will be more critical. Look at the call options sold at 360 (over 14K contracts). Hedge funds will do their best to keep TSLA below 360 next week, but I just don't see them succeeding unless macros and news intervene.

For the week, TSLA closed at 358.39, up 22.50 from last Friday's 335.89. It's been a good week, my friends. Enjoy your weekend.

Conditions:
* Dow up 3 (0.01%)
* NASDAQ up 18 (0.20%)
* TSLA 358.39, down 1.29 (0.36%)
* TSLA volume 6.6M shares
* Oil 60.07
* Percent of selling tagged to TSLA shorts: 58.5%

 

[jkirkwood001]

Would you please explain today, Papafox?? Given there was no media bombshell, I assume lots of behind-the-scenes manipulation..?

 

[Sudre]

Would you please explain today, Papafox?? Given there was no media bombshell, I assume lots of behind-the-scenes manipulation..?

I can't wait to see Papafox's review of the day but it looks pretty straight forward. Won't know for sure until the shares shorted is posted in about 30 minutes. Looks like a very high volume day (about double average) with maybe a very low 35% shares shorted. It just shows how Tesla would have been behaving if shorts quit manipulating. I am totally guessing at the shorted number base on the days performance.