Pencils down in 6 weeks - Model 3 design work nearly finished

[Camera-Cruiser]

I don't think we will hear anything announced other than things that ship cars before the end of the quarter. Why get someone sitting on the fence about a 60 or CPO now to start think about waiting for a 3.

Heck, they could even offer options for a place in line for a model 3 if you step up and order new and take delivery before the end of the year. No $1,000 deposit needed. Buy today and you get a place in line. When the 3 starts shipping you get a notice about your place in line and then are required to make the $1,000 deposit if you want to exercise your option.

 

[Model 3]

It was not presented as reveal 3 when I asked that question. That would not come until next year.

So how are they going to unveil the interior of the Model 3 without making this the part #3 of the Model 3 unveiling given that the AP2 unveiling was what Elon called part #2?

 

[ModelNforNerd]

I'm too lazy to go back and find the posts where I've said it, but my thoughts all along that Reveal 2 (or maybe it's 3 now...?) would be early-mid December.

It gives TSLA stock some "heat" rolling into end-of-year/Q4, because it will show all the naysayers that the Model 3 is still on track.

We'll still likely have to wait until late March-early April to see the 1st glimpse of the Design Studio.

 

[tomas]

If you wanted to keep your reservation holders committed and other potential buyers frozen, you would drip feed reveals every few months.

 

[dsvick]

I'm too lazy to go back and find the posts where I've said it, but my thoughts all along that Reveal 2 (or maybe it's 3 now...?) would be early-mid December.

I don't think we'll see any significant reveal before the end of the year. From the super charger blog post, and what Elon said about negative selling the Model 3 I bet they are going to focus on selling the S and X until the end of the year and having a major M3 reveal (or even a minor one) would detract from that.

If you wanted to keep your reservation holders committed and other potential buyers frozen, you would drip feed reveals every few months.

Anyone that puts $1,000 down to reserve a car that they don't even know what it will look like or when they will get it is pretty committed already. Also, I think Tesla definitely leans towards the big reveal and unveiling for their major product announcements. With that being said, I wouldn't be surprised if there are a few teaser tweets with just a little info. over the next few months.

 

[ecarfan]

Anyone that puts $1,000 down to reserve a car that they don't even know what it will look like or when they will get it is pretty committed already

While there were certainly quite a few Model 3 reservations made on 3/31/2016 in the hours before the reveal that evening, the vast majority of reservations were made by people who watched the reveal, in real time or later, and did in fact see what the car looked like. Based on what Elon said at the reveal and tweeted later there were something over 100,000 reservations made that day and a few hundred thousand made over the next several weeks.

 

[Topher]

Suspect increased range is just a matter of battery pack size

The question I have is, is there any granularity in the pack. Can they only add batteries in groups of 100 for example (100 3.7V battery equals 370V pack voltage, perhaps?) That would make just squeaking ahead of a competitor a bit trickier.

Thank you kindly.

 

[Garlan Garner]

I don't think we'll see any significant reveal before the end of the year. From the super charger blog post, and what Elon said about negative selling the Model 3 I bet they are going to focus on selling the S and X until the end of the year and having a major M3 reveal (or even a minor one) would detract from that.


Anyone that puts $1,000 down to reserve a car that they don't even know what it will look like or when they will get it is pretty committed already. Also, I think Tesla definitely leans towards the big reveal and unveiling for their major product announcements. With that being said, I wouldn't be surprised if there are a few teaser tweets with just a little info. over the next few months.

We saw the MS and MX. We had an idea...and wasn't wrong. Its a beautiful thing.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

We saw the MS and MX. We had an idea...and wasn't wrong. Its a beautiful thing.

As soon as Elon said it wouldn't be a "weirdmobile", I figured a refundable $1,000 was a worthwhile gamble.

Glad I followed through.

 

[3Victoria]

The question I have is, is there any granularity in the pack. Can they only add batteries in groups of 100 for example (100 3.7V battery equals 370V pack voltage, perhaps?) That would make just squeaking ahead of a competitor a bit trickier.

Well, they can fine granularity by using software to restrict a battery pack -- so if they put in a 70, and restrict it to 59, say, and make it OTA upgradable. I really expect the base pack to give more range than the 'competition'.

EM had said that he would do another product-reveal later in the year, and I think that the Reveal2/AP2 was it. I am not expecting another big event until early January re the Gigafactory. I, too, expect the final Reveal to be late spring, likely one year anniversary to the first one.

 

[Topher]

Well, they can fine granularity by using software to restrict a battery pack -- so if they put in a 70, and restrict it to 59, say, and make it OTA upgradable. I really expect the base pack to give more range than the 'competition'.

Well if they can afford to put 70 kWh into the base model ≡ at $35,000, they should just do that. No point in just squeaking by, if that is the case. 273 miles range would be a huge selling point.

Thank you kindly.

 

[3Victoria]

Well if they can afford to put 70 kWh into the base model ≡ at $35,000, they should just do that. No point in just squeaking by, if that is the case. 273 miles range would be a huge selling point.

Yes, probably, but they may not be able to do that if only $35k cars were sold. However, if the average car is $42k, then they may be able to afford to supply the 70 kWh in the base, as they could expect owners to pay for the upgrade later. (I think this is unlikely, actually.)

 

[Zaphod]

My numerologist, astrologist, Ouija board, and magic 8 ball all point to next reveal not being until early next year.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

Yes, probably, but they may not be able to do that if only $35k cars were sold. However, if the average car is $42k, then they may be able to afford to supply the 70 kWh in the base, as they could expect owners to pay for the upgrade later. (I think this is unlikely, actually.)

Until we know more about the cost per kWH to produce the new 2170 packs at the Gigafactory that's not fully online yet, we're all just guessing.

But if they take an approach similar to the S and X and make 3 physical packs and partition the smaller pack into 2 sizes, it could work.

So...say a 75kWH pack, available either fully opened, or software-locked to the mysterious "less than 60kWH" that has been mentioned....and a 90kWH pack, which could be used on 90D, P90D, and P90D-L variants.

 

[Topher]

Yes, probably, but they may not be able to do that if only $35k cars were sold. However, if the average car is $42k, then they may be able to afford to supply the 70 kWh in the base, as they could expect owners to pay for the upgrade later. (I think this is unlikely, actually.)

Higher average price comes with higher average cost (i.e. options).

The basic problem is that you need to create a demand-price chart where this makes sense. In other words, the slope of the demand curve must exceed the recipricol of price. So assume the option costs $1000, on 1,000 cars. If only person buys it, they must pay $1,000,000 (cost. Then add margin) If Tesla charged less than they lose money. If 50% of people buy it, they must pay $2,000 in costs, If Tesla charges less, they lose money. If OTOH they set the price too high, they lose sales they would have made at a lower price point. Meanwhile their costs are fixed, i.e the same regardless of how many they sell. Anywhere they set the price, there is a distinct probability that they will end up on the wrong side of the demand curve. Not a welcome dilemma when talking about half a billion invested in just the upgrade.

Thank you kindly.