Hi all, in order to better gauge delivery times for both All Wheel Drive and Rear Wheel Drive reservation holders, let us vote and figure out a rough percentage of people opting to wait for AWD availability vs RWD. If, for example, we see a ton of people waiting for AWD, then we can figure that late reservation holders with RWD preference could get their cars sooner rather than later. If strong preference is for RWD, then AWD availability could be delayed. If anyone has info or opinions about the % of reservation holders opting for each, let's discuss!
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Percent of M3 Reservation Holders going AWD vs RWD
- Thread starter Brandon332
- Start date
Mo City
Active Member
I was on the fence initially. However, because the specs of the RWD are so good and the high likelihood Tesla is understating them have pushed me to not wait. I also live in a non-snow environment.
What closes the case for me is a probable reduction from the $7,500 rebate.
That all said, if I had more money than sense, I would wait on AWD.
What closes the case for me is a probable reduction from the $7,500 rebate.
That all said, if I had more money than sense, I would wait on AWD.
Purely based on anecdotal evidence from people with whom I have had contact:
1. Perhaps a third of current S & X owners are opting for immediate delivery of one of their Model 3 reservations;
2. Since perhaps a third of S & X owners who reserved Model 3 reserved two of them, that suggests perhaps 10-15% of Model 3 reservations made by current owners are opting for first availability;
3. Of those who are deferring, there are probably four major motivations which are 1. interior options, 2.AWD, 3. A 'P' version and 4. air suspension or other feature. Except for the AWD we really have no official statements about when or even if such choices will be available.
4. Then there are the perhaps ~10% of S & X owners with multiple reservations for Model 3 that have different geography for the multiple reservations, and/or have changed geography for one to obtain earlier delivery.
Honestly there is no way to evaluate such choices or the relative numbers without access to all the owner histories and choices. Some fairly obvious inferences can be made for people who bought S 60's new vs PxxD new vs CPO. Then there are the people who have owned or now own multiple Teslas and/or multiple higher end vehicles purchased new. That is, other things remaining equal, propensity to wait for additional features that cost extra are closely correlated to higher end new purchases. I have little idea how many of these there are and I'll not guess because I am one and I am almost always an outlier.
The people who bought base new cars and/or CPO's generally are less prone to buying higher spec cars, so if they wait, are more likely to be waiting for the base version than they are for higher end options. I'll guess they may be as much as 20% of US Model 3 reservations.
This is by no means intended to be authoritative. I don't think there is any predictive value in an enthusiast-oriented survey like this one even though I find ti interesting. My guess is that a huge number of Model 3 reservations were made by people who want the Tesla experience but cannot justify the new Model S or X. During the wait many fo these people shifted to new lower end Model S, which might well explain the rapid decrease on ASV for Model S during the last couple of quarters. IMHO, that will not have been Osborning but will be proven to have been an increase in the addressable universe for S and X.
1. Perhaps a third of current S & X owners are opting for immediate delivery of one of their Model 3 reservations;
2. Since perhaps a third of S & X owners who reserved Model 3 reserved two of them, that suggests perhaps 10-15% of Model 3 reservations made by current owners are opting for first availability;
3. Of those who are deferring, there are probably four major motivations which are 1. interior options, 2.AWD, 3. A 'P' version and 4. air suspension or other feature. Except for the AWD we really have no official statements about when or even if such choices will be available.
4. Then there are the perhaps ~10% of S & X owners with multiple reservations for Model 3 that have different geography for the multiple reservations, and/or have changed geography for one to obtain earlier delivery.
Honestly there is no way to evaluate such choices or the relative numbers without access to all the owner histories and choices. Some fairly obvious inferences can be made for people who bought S 60's new vs PxxD new vs CPO. Then there are the people who have owned or now own multiple Teslas and/or multiple higher end vehicles purchased new. That is, other things remaining equal, propensity to wait for additional features that cost extra are closely correlated to higher end new purchases. I have little idea how many of these there are and I'll not guess because I am one and I am almost always an outlier.
The people who bought base new cars and/or CPO's generally are less prone to buying higher spec cars, so if they wait, are more likely to be waiting for the base version than they are for higher end options. I'll guess they may be as much as 20% of US Model 3 reservations.
This is by no means intended to be authoritative. I don't think there is any predictive value in an enthusiast-oriented survey like this one even though I find ti interesting. My guess is that a huge number of Model 3 reservations were made by people who want the Tesla experience but cannot justify the new Model S or X. During the wait many fo these people shifted to new lower end Model S, which might well explain the rapid decrease on ASV for Model S during the last couple of quarters. IMHO, that will not have been Osborning but will be proven to have been an increase in the addressable universe for S and X.
As of this writing and 42 votes cast, it's pretty evenly split, with AWD very slightly in the lead over AWD.
I could change my mind at any time before my invite comes, but if the invite came today I would take the RWD in order to get the car sooner. I drove a P85D Model S once and loved the handling. But Spokane does not get an awful lot of snow, and I don't want the additional year's wait. So I expect to get the RWD. In a year or two I expect the AWD and probably the P-AWD version to be available with no more wait than build time, or maybe even available in inventory. At that time I'll decide whether I'm happy with the car, or if I really want to upgrade. The Roadster has spoiled me for acceleration, but maybe after a year of driving the Model 3 I'll be perfectly happy with its torque. I loved my little Zap Xebra in spite of having a top speed of 35 mph on level ground, limited by its lack of power, not by electronics. Once on a good hill I had it up to 50 mph once. Anyway, hardly any power, and I still loved it. So maybe I'll be happy with the RWD Model 3.
I could change my mind at any time before my invite comes, but if the invite came today I would take the RWD in order to get the car sooner. I drove a P85D Model S once and loved the handling. But Spokane does not get an awful lot of snow, and I don't want the additional year's wait. So I expect to get the RWD. In a year or two I expect the AWD and probably the P-AWD version to be available with no more wait than build time, or maybe even available in inventory. At that time I'll decide whether I'm happy with the car, or if I really want to upgrade. The Roadster has spoiled me for acceleration, but maybe after a year of driving the Model 3 I'll be perfectly happy with its torque. I loved my little Zap Xebra in spite of having a top speed of 35 mph on level ground, limited by its lack of power, not by electronics. Once on a good hill I had it up to 50 mph once. Anyway, hardly any power, and I still loved it. So maybe I'll be happy with the RWD Model 3.
We don't know what AWD will cost, which other options (if any) will be bundled with it, what the acceleration will be, what the efficiency/range will be, etc.
It really sucks that this information isn't available now that non-employees are having to decide whether to order the RWD now or wait for AWD without knowing even this basic info. Why put a customer in that position?
It really sucks that this information isn't available now that non-employees are having to decide whether to order the RWD now or wait for AWD without knowing even this basic info. Why put a customer in that position?
Snow Drift
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mcghee33
Member
I am effectively doing the same thing. Taking the RWD to get the car sooner and re-evaluating in 2-3 years to see if I want an AWD M3 or MS.
jmanning
Member
have a 70D and want the 3 really bad, will be selling the S for a couple reasons, want the 3 now....but after thinking about it and hearing from my circle of Tesla owners, AWD in New England is the way to go....as long as it comes out in April/May will look forward to AWD and hopefully another interior color like TAN....
Same - First Reservation I’ll get SR (save $9k) and non premium interior (save $5k). Ideallly before the tax credit runs out ($7,500 + CT $3,000). Likely only thing I’ll option is EAP ($5k) and maybe a color ($1k). I’ll keep my S70D for AWD and am fine with ~220 mile range on the 3 with the charging network.
Second res I will use learnings from the first to configure and at that point decide if I’m going to replace the 1st 3 or replace the S and have 2 Model 3’s
AZ Desert Driver
Rare combination
My case - I want to buy the M3 for my wife, and she is sold on ICE and does not want M3. I am driving a MS and am slowly chipping away at her objections - summarized as Range Anxiety and need-to-plan. If I got my invite to configure NOW, I would postpone for non-mechanical reasons. I would not trade in my MS for a M3 - as that looks like a step down in features. The M3 will (never?) be on par to a MS. So perhaps I will replace my MS in 10 years with another, more current MS. But never for a M3. The M3 is targeted for a second car in my garage, and I have a sales job to do - and AWD, RWD, auto pilot and color may make my heart tingle, but not the wifes.
ElecFan
Member
I understand. I"m going to get the Model 3 and then I hope that my wife will like it enough to tolerate a reasonable amount of charging. The Volt is comfortable (relatively speaking) for long trips, but my wife clearly prefers it when it's running in electric mode.
RWD+PUP*+blue: either I'd get the car purchased and titled in time to get the $7.5k credit or I'd keep running my Prius.
* If required for heated mirrors and heated front seats.
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T34ME
Active Member
I have two reservations. First one will be RWD. Second one will be AWD + SAS + white interior + P (if available). Based on my position in the queue and ramp up, I should be getting my invitation for the first within <60 days. I will defer on the first car until SR is available. Once I get invitation for the second car (2 years?), I will make a decision about the first - sell it, keep as second car, trade in on Roadster II or just cancel reservation for second. I like lots of options and it is worth tying up an extra thousand to me for a second reservation.
cablue
Member
We reserved two 3s back in March of '16. One we have recently received - Yay! It's very fun! - the second, we were set to receive the dual motor around June of '18, I believe. Well, Tesla duplicated our 1st order! They now say we lost our 2nd reservation for the dual motor, even though it was their mistake. We now have to make a new reservation and go to the back of the line. Does not seem right. Not very happy about that.
That sucks! Nissan did that to me (along with other screw-ups) and I ended up getting my Tesla instead. Have you tried going further up the chain to get that resolved? If you can show proof of your second $1,000 deposit they can hardly deny you.
I was going to wait for AWD and hope the $7500 tax credit was still there. Now my 2002 Camry with 296,000 miles is looking at something approaching $3400 in repairs, $1500 in emissions alone (yet another catalytic converter, it seems).
Because of this, I'm going RWD. As it is, my car is on a temporary inspection sticker that runs out next month. At this point, it looks like I will take "The Corporate Way" and pay any fine for any ticket I might get since it's cheaper than fixing the actual problems.
Because of this, I'm going RWD. As it is, my car is on a temporary inspection sticker that runs out next month. At this point, it looks like I will take "The Corporate Way" and pay any fine for any ticket I might get since it's cheaper than fixing the actual problems.
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