Poll: 81% of Prospective Model 3 Owners Say They Won’t Pay Upfront For Full Self-Driving

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]It seems most prospective Model 3 owners aren’t willing to shell out cash upfront for a $3,000 “full self-driving capability” option that is likely years away from becoming available to engage.

In a poll posted by jsraw 81.3% (347) of respondents said they will not pay for the feature at purchase. Adding the option later will cost an additional $1,000. Of respondents, 18.7% said they will pay for FSD upfront.

According to Tesla’s website, FSD “doubles the number of active cameras from four to eight, enabling full self-driving in almost all circumstances, at what we believe will be a probability of safety at least twice as good as the average human driver. The system is designed to be able to conduct short and long distance trips with no action required by the person in the driver’s seat. For Superchargers that have automatic charge connection enabled, you will not even need to plug in your vehicle.”

Elon Musk has said that level 5 autonomous driving is possible with second generation Autopilot and the FSD option, meaning the car is fully autonomous in any and all conditions. During his TED talk in April, Musk said the company plans to conduct by the end of 2017 a coast-to-coast demo drive from California to New York without the driver touching the wheel.

Obviously, there will be regulatory hurdles ahead and Musk has said it will likely be two years before owners will be able to engage FSD capability.

See a few comments on the poll below, or go to the thread here.

Swift

EinSV

jason1466

Waiting4M3

Enginerd[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

 

[EVNow]

No, not another "as a service" that I'll have to subscribe for or pay per use. I don't like the trend of ALL software becoming a subscription service versus pay once for the life of the product.

You may be in a minority. Since everyone wants regular updates for life - the viable economic model is SAAS.

 

[JeffK]

You have to look at the actual wording (creep may be called out as an exception). My information comes from numerous WSJ podcasts and an interview with federal director in charge (last year).

Not sure what you're referring to but Elaine Chao, appointed by Trump no less, seems on board with autonomous cars as was the previous Secretary of Transportation.

 

[EVNow]

Not sure what you're referring to but Elaine Chao, appointed by Trump no less, seems on board with autonomous cars as was the previous Secretary of Transportation.

Hmmm ... we are talking 2 entirely different things. BHO admin put out the guidelines as well. You were claiming currently they are legal - all I'm saying is experts disagree on this.

 

[JeffK]

Hmmm ... we are talking 2 entirely different things. BHO admin put out the guidelines as well. You were claiming currently they are legal - all I'm saying is experts disagree on this.

Do you know where this regulation is? All I'm seeing is the policy guidance https://www.transportation.gov/sites/dot.gov/files/docs/AV policy guidance PDF.pdf


I am under the impression that no such federal regulation exists and at the state level if there are no laws against it then it's legal as long as you are behind the wheel.

 

[AceSkywalker]

You may be in a minority. Since everyone wants regular updates for life - the viable economic model is SAAS.

The most common piece of software people interact with is on the contrary. I don't pay subscription for Windows or Microsoft Office. I don't pay subscription for my video games (I don't touch MMOs). They're all one time costs.

 

[siggyfreud]

You may not use the latest version but office has shifted to a subscription based model as well. Adobe has too. Operating systems haven't as it's a core component, inoperable without it.

 

[insaneoctane]

And while I don't like it. Video games are increasingly subscription based. Ps4 and Xbox require monthly subscriptions to utilize all content

 

[AceSkywalker]

You may not use the latest version but office has shifted to a subscription based model as well. Adobe has too. Operating systems haven't as it's a core component, inoperable without it.

As of today, I can purchase Office 2016 as a one time payment. If you're a business, it's a different story, and seems like a bad deal if you're not using the full suite (i.e. using the alternatives to Skype and OneDrive cloud storage). As for Adobe - my university used to give all the declared design major students free copies of Adobe CS6. Now, no more.

 

[SlicedBr3ad]

Just to quickly point out that Tesla is the only electric car with eap and possible future fsd we can buy this or next year. Even new 2018 leaf (the only somewhat competing vehicle) is going to fall behind due to lack of software updates (this is my assumption based on their current software update strategy).

I'm planning to keep model 3 at least 10 years so will definitely pay for both eap and fsd.

Getting Eap because it is awesome. I tried on multiple ap2 loaners and experience was consistent. Can't wait for them to complete the feature set (e.g. no input lane changes and highway to highway ramp transition).

Getting Fsd because I believe fsd features will become available over time and not as a whole package. So definitely want to get my hands on those right away instead of waiting. Finally, I do believe it will help continue development. I'm expecting to be using fsd features at least 8 out of 10 years of Ownership.

In terms of where Tesla's fsd dev progress is vs Google, and others. I believe Tesla used to be the leader with mobile eye has has fallen significantly behind since ap2.

 

[JeffK]

I believe Tesla used to be the leader with mobile eye has has fallen significantly behind since ap2.

Behind what commercial product exactly?

Remember that AP 1.0 was in cars for over a year before they enabled it at all (and it wasn't that great at first). How long has AP 2 been in vehicles?

 

[tinm]

Zero interest in the Model 3 as a robot car. I will never trust the software such that I'd ever relinquish control of the vehicle.

 

[SlicedBr3ad]

Behind what commercial product exactly?

Remember that AP 1.0 was in cars for over a year before they enabled it at all (and it wasn't that great at first). How long has AP 2 been in vehicles?

Please keep that comment in context of fsd which no one has. I was comparing other companies fsd development to Tesla based on Tesla fsd demo and state of autopilot. What caused me to think that Tesla fell behind on fsd development as compared to other companies is that ap2 eap took so long to get to a stable state where users Stopped complaining about it. That point in time is the "silky smooth" release. I am expecting there was little to no development on fsd until that release and all hands were working getting a consistent operation of eap.

 

[JeffK]

Please keep that comment in context of fsd which no one has.

I believe Tesla used to be the leader with mobile eye has has fallen significantly behind since ap2.

Yes exactly please keep it in context, you're all over the place . There was never FSD with Tesla/MobilEye in AP1. So how can they fall behind after AP2 was released? If anything they are collecting more data and actually have production vehicles with the hardware on the road, unlike any other manufacturer. As far as neural networks go, sometimes even an inferior network design can get better results if provided more data than a better design. The manufacturer right now that has the most data is Tesla, by leaps and bounds. The individuals they have working on the project can be considered world class in their fields.

What caused me to think that Tesla fell behind on fsd development as compared to other companies is that ap2 eap took so long to get to a stable state where users Stopped complaining about it.

As previously mentioned, AP1 was in cars for over a year before it was first enabled and even then it took many iterations to get better. AP2 has nearly reached feature parity in well under that time and it hasn't even been a single year. This is a fantastic achievement when considering it was built in-house as a quick stop-gap when MobilEye decided to part ways.

 

[chronopc]

And while I don't like it. Video games are increasingly subscription based. Ps4 and Xbox require monthly subscriptions to utilize all content

Freemiums mobile ames are the worst. People end up paying thousands for a "free" game.

 

[chronopc]

Zero interest in the Model 3 as a robot car. I will never trust the software such that I'd ever relinquish control of the vehicle.

If you don't care about autonomous features I highly recommend checking out some CPO Model S. The ones without the AP hardware are being offered for a great price and you get free supercharger and unlimited warranty.

 

[siggyfreud]

As of today, I can purchase Office 2016 as a one time payment. If you're a business, it's a different story, and seems like a bad deal if you're not using the full suite (i.e. using the alternatives to Skype and OneDrive cloud storage). As for Adobe - my university used to give all the declared design major students free copies of Adobe CS6. Now, no more.

Yes, and when they upgrade it, you'll have to purchase it again, at full cost. I'm not arguing with you that full-purchase options of software exist, I'm just saying that they're increasingly moving towards a subscription-based service, and many of them have benefits that outweigh the costs. With Office 365 you're always on the latest version so long as you subscribe. When Office 2017 or 2018 comes out, you'll have to purchase to upgrade. Now, maybe 2016 will suffice for many years to come, and that's fine. How much changes in the world of word processors year to year? Probably not a ton.

Cars may be different though. Either way, the cost to continually develop and improve an app exists, and it's easier to justify those costs with a recurring subscription model, as opposed to dumping money into an investment, and waiting until the sales to recoup it. Again, I'm not advocating for this model with Tesla and their software, just pointing out why such a model might be in their best interest, and what benefits it may pose to their users as well.

 

[AceSkywalker]

Yes, and when they upgrade it, you'll have to purchase it again, at full cost. I'm not arguing with you that full-purchase options of software exist, I'm just saying that they're increasingly moving towards a subscription-based service, and many of them have benefits that outweigh the costs. With Office 365 you're always on the latest version so long as you subscribe. When Office 2017 or 2018 comes out, you'll have to purchase to upgrade. Now, maybe 2016 will suffice for many years to come, and that's fine. How much changes in the world of word processors year to year? Probably not a ton.

Cars may be different though. Either way, the cost to continually develop and improve an app exists, and it's easier to justify those costs with a recurring subscription model, as opposed to dumping money into an investment, and waiting until the sales to recoup it. Again, I'm not advocating for this model with Tesla and their software, just pointing out why such a model might be in their best interest, and what benefits it may pose to their users as well.

And when you unsubscribe from Office 365, you're left with nothing.

Cars are different. Any vehicle subscription service is not kept. I don't know anyone that keeps OnStar, Mercedes MBrace, etc after the service time bundled with the car at purchase.

Tesla having the FSD as a subscription service won't make too many owners and potential buyers happy. They'd be paying the car loan, and on top of that, a $45/month FSD subscription ($4000 buy FSD afterwards / 8 years of ownership), which goes up if it includes the EAP charge --> $95/month ($9000 EAP+FSD add on later / 96 months). This doesn't include the internet service charge that Model S & X owners will pay after 4 years and Model 3 owners pay after 2 (?) years (which you'll probably want to get to get the most out of the vehicle). Nor does it include taxes.

IDK about you, but $95/month is what I pay for my internet at home and my mobile service combined. And this goes back to the reality that the Model 3 is a cheaper car, which means that there are more people less willing to pay for expensive options. Example is people ignoring personal finance advice and stretching their budgets when they should be buying a used PHEV. I'm already expecting to see significant amounts of black Model 3's with aero wheels and cloth seats in SoCal, the land of stripped down BMW 320i's and MB CLAs.

 

[gambit48]

Yes, and when they upgrade it, you'll have to purchase it again, at full cost. I'm not arguing with you that full-purchase options of software exist, I'm just saying that they're increasingly moving towards a subscription-based service, and many of them have benefits that outweigh the costs. With Office 365 you're always on the latest version so long as you subscribe. When Office 2017 or 2018 comes out, you'll have to purchase to upgrade. Now, maybe 2016 will suffice for many years to come, and that's fine. How much changes in the world of word processors year to year? Probably not a ton.

No you don't. You basically admit that yourself. That's the whole point of and benefit of purchase one time. You're done. Particularly for Microsoft Office, there's not really any benefit to upgrading. It's a word processor. Google Docs is free and works just as well for the great majority of people. I've got Office 2007 on an old computer and it works just fine. I was on Lightroom 5 for years. Finally upgraded to Lightroom 6 recently, just for one feature. If they hadn't come out with that feature, I would have stayed with LR5. If anything, Office has long hit max development in terms of must have features and upgrading just causes pain as you have to relearn a new workflow. So, you're better off NOT upgrading. Adobe at least is still developing new features people will pay for. I kept those versions of Office and LR so long, I way more than made out than if I had paid $10/mo for a subscription.

Who else though? Who are the big players in terms of software that people buy? You've got games, but not everyone plays shooters and games that require online play. Look at the mobile games. Apple and Google are the other two big software people, and they give their software away for free.

The subscription model only works if you constantly have a compelling reason for people to stay with you. With software, it's especially easy to get "disrupted". Look at XM radio. Internet radio is a major disrupter and most people are going to go with the free option. Cable TV? Also being disrupted. Particularly with internet companies like Netflix (again, it's mostly software and/or the internet). Netflix, while a big success and also a subscription model, doesn't have everyone who watches TV though. Again, too many players pop up. All the major networks have their free apps and put their shows on there.

If Google pushed their office suite more, they could destroy Microsoft who has a pretty horrid reputation. Especially at the more price sensitive points, such as schools, Microsoft is pretty much gone.

tldr: people want free or as close to it as they can

 

[chronopc]

And when you unsubscribe from Office 365, you're left with nothing.

Cars are different. Any vehicle subscription service is not kept. I don't know anyone that keeps OnStar, Mercedes MBrace, etc after the service time bundled with the car at purchase.

Tesla having the FSD as a subscription service won't make too many owners and potential buyers happy. They'd be paying the car loan, and on top of that, a $45/month FSD subscription ($4000 buy FSD afterwards / 8 years of ownership), which goes up if it includes the EAP charge --> $95/month ($9000 EAP+FSD add on later / 96 months). This doesn't include the internet service charge that Model S & X owners will pay after 4 years and Model 3 owners pay after 2 (?) years (which you'll probably want to get to get the most out of the vehicle). Nor does it include taxes.

IDK about you, but $95/month is what I pay for my internet at home and my mobile service combined. And this goes back to the reality that the Model 3 is a cheaper car, which means that there are more people less willing to pay for expensive options. Example is people ignoring personal finance advice and stretching their budgets when they should be buying a used PHEV. I'm already expecting to see significant amounts of black Model 3's with aero wheels and cloth seats in SoCal, the land of stripped down BMW 320i's and MB CLAs.

I really hope that Tesla doesn't go with the subscription model. One of the reason why I am willing to spend $5k for EAP and $3k eventually for FSD is that I was assuming that the high cost included access to future updates. Like AceSkywalker pointed out, if you are divide the total cost for EAP + FSD over the expected lifespan of the car, you are already paying quite a premium on a yearly basis to have access to those features.

 

[cheleball]

I am inclined not to, but I do really want the feature. I would activate it if/when Tesla releases it. But! My fear is that Tesla will jack up the price at that point. The price of autopilot has trended upward as it has improved, and I see no reason to believe FSD won't do the same. Especially since Tesla would just argue that people can recoup the cost on the Tesla network, but I have no plans to share my car with strangers so that doesn't work for me.