Poll: 81% of Prospective Model 3 Owners Say They Won’t Pay Upfront For Full Self-Driving

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]It seems most prospective Model 3 owners aren’t willing to shell out cash upfront for a $3,000 “full self-driving capability” option that is likely years away from becoming available to engage.

In a poll posted by jsraw 81.3% (347) of respondents said they will not pay for the feature at purchase. Adding the option later will cost an additional $1,000. Of respondents, 18.7% said they will pay for FSD upfront.

According to Tesla’s website, FSD “doubles the number of active cameras from four to eight, enabling full self-driving in almost all circumstances, at what we believe will be a probability of safety at least twice as good as the average human driver. The system is designed to be able to conduct short and long distance trips with no action required by the person in the driver’s seat. For Superchargers that have automatic charge connection enabled, you will not even need to plug in your vehicle.”

Elon Musk has said that level 5 autonomous driving is possible with second generation Autopilot and the FSD option, meaning the car is fully autonomous in any and all conditions. During his TED talk in April, Musk said the company plans to conduct by the end of 2017 a coast-to-coast demo drive from California to New York without the driver touching the wheel.

Obviously, there will be regulatory hurdles ahead and Musk has said it will likely be two years before owners will be able to engage FSD capability.

See a few comments on the poll below, or go to the thread here.

Swift

EinSV

jason1466

Waiting4M3

Enginerd[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

 

[insaneoctane]

I also want EAP and FSD to be a one time charge. I am personally very ANTI anything per month.

Having said that....

How much do you think it cost Tesla to develop EAP and FSD? I mean total cost of development. Do you think $5K and $3K, respectively, per purchaser cover their development costs?

Next question, once you buy it and you get maybe 1 year of upgrades included in your purchase price, doesn't the continued enhancement of the product, at some point, justify paying for all the new resources spent since your initial investment and the improvements that they offer? It's probably safer than when you purchased it, wouldn't you want the latest and safest? And probably willing to pay for it.

It pains me to type these words because I am justifying subscription based services which I loathe.

 

[chronopc]

I also want EAP and FSD to be a one time charge. I am personally very ANTI anything per month.

Having said that....

How much do you think it cost Tesla to develop EAP and FSD? I mean total cost of development. Do you think $5K and $3K, respectively, per purchaser cover their development costs?

Next question, once you buy it and you get maybe 1 year of upgrades included in your purchase price, doesn't the continued enhancement of the product, at some point, justify paying for all the new resources spent since your initial investment and the improvements that they offer? It's probably safer than when you purchased it, wouldn't you want the latest and safest? And probably willing to pay for it.

It pains me to type these words because I am justifying subscription based services which I loathe.

I would say the the cost of development is quite high. There's a lot involved such as programming, roast testing, data mining. I'm sure there's a lot of liability insurance they had to purchase. Also remember, they are installing the hardware on all of the vehicles they sell, not just the ones where people paid for EAP and FSD. I would say at their current volume they are losing money. But they should be able to break even or maybe make a profit once they ramp up to full production for the Model 3. My guess is most people will at least get EAP.

In regards to your 2nd question, are you referring to the need of having to upgrade the hardware on the cars for EAP and FSD in the future?

 

[insaneoctane]

.

In regards to your 2nd question, are you referring to the need of having to upgrade the hardware on the cars for EAP and FSD in the future?

Nope just software.

 

[Cloxxki]

If you gamble that FSD won't get too much more expensive if itt ever does pan out, you could double down and buy 9 TSLA shares. It may work out, or it may not.

 

[chronopc]

If you gamble that FSD won't get too much more expensive if itt ever does pan out, you could double down and buy 9 TSLA shares. It may work out, or it may not.

I don't believe that FSD will get more expensive in the future. Buying it afterwards is already going to add an additional $1k. Plus you have to buy the EAP before you can get FSD. I think with more people buying Teslas and buying EAP, there's a chance that in the future they could even reduce the cost. I think creating a new technology is much more expensive than maintaining and updating it.

 

[chronopc]

Nope just software.

The way I see it working is similar to operating systems for smartphones. Companies will provide free updates as long as the hardware can support it. I am hoping that is the case with EAP and FSD.

 

[siggyfreud]

No you don't. You basically admit that yourself. That's the whole point of and benefit of purchase one time. You're done. Particularly for Microsoft Office, there's not really any benefit to upgrading. It's a word processor. Google Docs is free and works just as well for the great majority of people. I've got Office 2007 on an old computer and it works just fine. I was on Lightroom 5 for years. Finally upgraded to Lightroom 6 recently, just for one feature. If they hadn't come out with that feature, I would have stayed with LR5. If anything, Office has long hit max development in terms of must have features and upgrading just causes pain as you have to relearn a new workflow. So, you're better off NOT upgrading. Adobe at least is still developing new features people will pay for. I kept those versions of Office and LR so long, I way more than made out than if I had paid $10/mo for a subscription.

Who else though? Who are the big players in terms of software that people buy? You've got games, but not everyone plays shooters and games that require online play. Look at the mobile games. Apple and Google are the other two big software people, and they give their software away for free.

The subscription model only works if you constantly have a compelling reason for people to stay with you. With software, it's especially easy to get "disrupted". Look at XM radio. Internet radio is a major disrupter and most people are going to go with the free option. Cable TV? Also being disrupted. Particularly with internet companies like Netflix (again, it's mostly software and/or the internet). Netflix, while a big success and also a subscription model, doesn't have everyone who watches TV though. Again, too many players pop up. All the major networks have their free apps and put their shows on there.

If Google pushed their office suite more, they could destroy Microsoft who has a pretty horrid reputation. Especially at the more price sensitive points, such as schools, Microsoft is pretty much gone.

tldr: people want free or as close to it as they can

Yes you do. The fact that the new version may not compel you to upgrade doesn't take away from the fact that you MUST buy the new version IF you want to upgrade in a straight-up purchase model. I conceded that in the case of MS Office there really hasn't been enough innovation for most users to compel them to do so, but that doesn't change the fact that you will need to make another purchase to get a new version, whereas in a subscription model you do not. I'm not advocating for one or the other, just pointing out the facts.

In vehicles, especially those dealing in the EAP and FSD space, innovations and feature rollouts may come quickly, and there may be some very compelling reasons for someone to pay X amount per month to enable those features rather than a full upfront purchase. Many people in this thread are hesitant to purchase FSD, but I imagine many would pay a relatively small monthly fee to try out new features as they became available. We're treading FSD as if it's going to be a lightswitch event (ie all at once), but the most likely scenario, in my opinion, is that it gets rolled out over time.

As for the argument that you lose the product when you unsubscribe . . . I sometimes need to make use of an Adobe product, usually a few times a year, but across a diverse set of their products. It's a substantial savings for me to be able to activate the product I need for a month, for $19 bucks, use it, and then deactivate, as opposed to purchasing the full suite. Sure, when I deactivate I lose use of the product, though not the IP I created with it. But if I need it again, I reactivate it. The old retail purchase price of Adobe's master collection was $2,599, meaning I'd have to activate it 145 times before I would have been ahead purchasing the suite. If you were to use the wide array of their products every day you might be way ahead to purchase it all outright. Both make sense depending on the use case.

You can po-po subscription models, but for some they can make complete economic sense. Tesla would be smart to offer both a one-time buy option at a higher premium, and a subscription-based service IMO.

I'm not here trying to lobby for Tesla to go to this model. I'm just here to play devil's advocate against people shitting on the idea simply because it doesn't fit their particular use cases well.

 

[landis]

I am expecting there was little to no development on fsd until that release and all hands were working getting a consistent operation of eap.

I've worked in software R&D for a similar sized company and am pretty confident they have maintained a team of some size continuing work on FSD. Especially given the unknowns and the priority. Tesla is no longer a startup with a small number of developers.

Also remember, they are installing the hardware on all of the vehicles they sell, not just the ones where people paid for EAP and FSD.

True, but the value of safety features such as AEB depends on much of the same hardware.
(i.e. at least radar and some capacity of AP computer.)
So not all of the AP hardware cost for all of the cars needs to be borne by the paid convenience features. (i.e. EAP, EAP+FSD)

 

[Emmies]

I thought about it for a minute but when the Tesla dealer says they have no idea when it might be available for use and you realize that your home state needs to regulate it and get it all figured out, it was an easy No. Autopilot 2 is getting better but it's not even close to where it needs to be. I can't imagine my car being ready to drive itself from point A to point B anytime soon. Let me know when i'm not required to have my hands on the wheel any longer and then i'll consider it

 

[JeffK]

Autopilot 2 is getting better but it's not even close to where it needs to be.

All that's out is EAP, are you saying that EAP is not even close to AP1?

 

[jsrawa]

I don't believe that FSD will get more expensive in the future. Buying it afterwards is already going to add an additional $1k. Plus you have to buy the EAP before you can get FSD. I think with more people buying Teslas and buying EAP, there's a chance that in the future they could even reduce the cost. I think creating a new technology is much more expensive than maintaining and updating it.

I really don't think the cost would be reduced especially if they need to upgrade the computer in the future to fully achieve FSD. My money would be on a price increase if anything.

 

[chronopc]

I really don't think the cost would be reduced especially if they need to upgrade the computer in the future to fully achieve FSD. My money would be on a price increase if anything.

They just upgraded the hardware to 2.5 and there's no increase in the price to unlock EAP or FSD. With any technology it will get cheaper and cheaper with increase volume and adoption rate. Right now I think the price is pretty high already. If they were to increase it, less people would be willing to get the feature which is the opposite of what Tesla wants.

 

[SlicedBr3ad]

They just upgraded the hardware to 2.5 and there's no increase in the price to unlock EAP or FSD. With any technology it will get cheaper and cheaper with increase volume and adoption rate. Right now I think the price is pretty high already. If they were to increase it, less people would be willing to get the feature which is the opposite of what Tesla wants.

This is true and Tesla already did this on model S for some of its features like the air suspension which I believe is standard now. In addition, if there is significant competition, it will establish a market and it's item price which can go up or go down based on supply and demand.

However, it's not a given that price will go down. If there is no competition at the time Tesla gets fsd stable, the prices can easily double or triple for fsd.

 

[JeffK]

This is true and Tesla already did this on model S for some of its features like the air suspension which I believe is standard now. In addition, if there is significant competition, it will establish a market and it's item price which can go up or go down based on supply and demand.

However, it's not a given that price will go down. If there is no competition at the time Tesla gets fsd stable, the prices can easily double or triple for fsd.

There would be outrage if the price increased in the next year and a half as they are still filling reservation orders.

 

[chronopc]

This is true and Tesla already did this on model S for some of its features like the air suspension which I believe is standard now. In addition, if there is significant competition, it will establish a market and it's item price which can go up or go down based on supply and demand.

However, it's not a given that price will go down. If there is no competition at the time Tesla gets fsd stable, the prices can easily double or triple for fsd.

The reason why I think it's likely to go down eventually is because Tesla's strategy is to install the hardware on all of their cars. So it seems to me that they want to have the highest adoption rate as possible. It's amazing how much more people are willing to pay for something when you reduce the price.

 

[EV-lutioin]

There would be outrage if the price increased in the next year and a half as they are still filling reservation orders.

Historically, Tesla has been fairly immune to outrage. Probably because they have so many more fans than detractors. (Despite what you see on TMC )

 

[Petra]

All that's out is EAP, are you saying that EAP is not even close to AP1?

Owning a Hardware 1 car and having recently driven a Hardware 2 car, I wouldn't go quite that far... But it's probably safe to say that there isn't anything "enhanced" about EAP yet--it's still inferior to AP1 in its freeway TACC behavior, lane holding, and lane changing.

 

[chronopc]

Historically, Tesla has been fairly immune to outrage. Probably because they have so many more fans than detractors. (Despite what you see on TMC )

Just read jalopnik if you want to see how Tesla sucks lol

 

[JeffK]

Historically, Tesla has been fairly immune to outrage. Probably because they have so many more fans than detractors. (Despite what you see on TMC )

I wouldn't think that'd be the case this time around... there's too many people with pre-orders. More than in their entire history.

If they were to suddenly raise prices out from under people, they'd get a lot of flak. It not like you're squeeze a few more dimes out of a rich person this time.

 

[siggyfreud]

EAP and FSD will only cost less once other car makers roll out competitive alternatives. The pricing isn't simply about the cost and economy of scale, but also what the market can take. Until other sub 50k cars hit the market with these features Tesla has little incentive to reduce the cost.