[Poll] - Are you ordering Model Y?

[david_42]

If the Model Y was actually a hatchback and 10% smaller than a Model 3, I'd be back in line. Oh well, it will probably be 3-4 years before we need a new car. Maybe Tesla will bow to demand in Europe by then.

 

[ggnykk]

Model Y will likely be my next car, but my Model 3 still has new car smell so that won't be any time soon! Definitely not until well after the Model Y has started shipping (and I'd want 7 seats which isn't until 2021 anyway).
Overall I like my Model 3 more than my old S, but I miss the hatchback of my Model S at times, and my ideal car would have been a Model 3 with a hatchback... which is basically the Model Y.

However, my plans might change depending on the reveal of the Tesla Pickup!

Don't expect the Model Y can seat 7 real people in real world. There are videos on Youtube that show the backseat of Model Y. Definitely not for anyone older than 5 years old at best. I actually don't even know why Tesla offer the 7 seat option for 3000 dollars extra. Once consumer see the backseat in a showroom, the take rate of this option will be well under 10% for sure.

 

[ggnykk]

I changed my vote. The Y is nice, but after the unveil I didn't feel compelled to plunk down $2,500 on one right now. Guess I was hoping for a surprise or two.

yea, probably best to wait until they actually start production by end of next year, then make a decision there.

 

[ggnykk]

More range is great for driving "off the beaten path", especially in areas like rural western North America. A bigger battery also means even faster Supercharging on a per-mile basis, as the charge rate won't taper as soon. So I understand the desire for a range of 600 miles, even though 300 miles is generally more than ample enough.


That seems awfully pessimistic. Winter range loss isn't generally that bad on road trips because the car keeps the battery from getting too cold. Winter range loss is worse when making lots of short trips that necessitate re-warming the battery and re-heating the cabin each time, but there's no need to worry about range loss when you're just driving around town.

The EPA range for EV generally can only be achieved during summer and if you drive at a constant 55 to 59 mph on highway. And that's from 100% full battery to dead 0%. I have seen so many test video done on this on Youtube. If you do the more normal highway speed, lets say 65 to 70 mph, you can't get close to EPA range even in summer.
Winter time is much worse, you got snow on the ground, you have to turn the heat on which really drain the battery like crazy. And you also want slightly more buffer when u reach the destination coz of the bad weather. Plus, like i said before, u only use from 5 or 10% of battery up to 80% of battery when supercharging in long road trip. So using 40% of EPA range as a reference to actual real world range in long distance driving is very reasonable. If anything, 40% is sometimes even optimistic during extreme winter condition.

 

[CoastalCruiser]

I put $2500 on my credit card yesterday. The applied for a refund on my Model 3 reservation. I went into a Bolt thinking my Prius lease would expire before the 35K version (which I was waiting for) was released. Of course once I signed the papers on the Bolt the 35K 3 was announced. So anyone who is ordering a 35K 3 owes me a personal debt of gratitude for making that car available.

I am now a reservist on the Y. Whether or not I become a buyer remains to be seen. The Bolt lease will expire in January 2023. If, repeat if, the Y is shipping at that time, and if the kinks have been worked out, then I will likely jump on a single motor, long range, 7-seat configuration. Hopefully Tesla will apply everything they've learned about the 3 to the Y.

Getting excited all over again. And as Mr. Spock once pointed out, when some Neanderthal Vulcan stole his girlfriend when he was off-planet, "you may find that having is not so pleasing a thing after all as wanting a thing".

 

[ggnykk]

I put $2500 on my credit card yesterday. The applied for a refund on my Model 3 reservation. I went into a Bolt thinking my Prius lease would expire before the 35K version (which I was waiting for) was released. Of course once I signed the papers on the Bolt the 35K 3 was announced. So anyone who is ordering a 35K 3 owes me a personal debt of gratitude for making that car available.

I am now a reservist on the Y. Whether or not I become a buyer remains to be seen. The Bolt lease will expire in January 2023. If, repeat if, the Y is shipping at that time, and if the kinks have been worked out, then I will likely jump on a single motor, long range, 7-seat configuration. Hopefully Tesla will apply everything they've learned about the 3 to the Y.

Getting excited all over again. And as Mr. Spock once pointed out, when some Neanderthal Vulcan stole his girlfriend when he was off-planet, "you may find that having is not so pleasing a thing after all as wanting a thing".

The Bolt is great for driving within the city. But long road trip would be a huge pain compare to Tesla.

 

[abasile]

The EPA range for EV generally can only be achieved during summer and if you drive at a constant 55 to 59 mph on highway. And that's from 100% full battery to dead 0%. I have seen so many test video done on this on Youtube. If you do the more normal highway speed, lets say 65 to 70 mph, you can't get close to EPA range even in summer.
Winter time is much worse, you got snow on the ground, you have to turn the heat on which really drain the battery like crazy. And you also want slightly more buffer when u reach the destination coz of the bad weather. Plus, like i said before, u only use from 5 or 10% of battery up to 80% of battery when supercharging in long road trip. So using 40% of EPA range as a reference to actual real world range in long distance driving is very reasonable. If anything, 40% is sometimes even optimistic during extreme winter condition.

Are you saying this based on your actual experience owning an EV, or just from studying Youtube videos? You're right about only using 5-10% charge to 80-90% charge in typical Supercharging sessions, and the heater certainly does reduce range, but your "40% of EPA range" doesn't match my Tesla experience.

We've been driving EVs since 2011, and what you're saying may be true of the Nissan LEAF, particularly older models. Our LEAF has mediocre aerodynamics, no battery heater, the range really suffers in winter cold.

Our Model S has been great, though. We drive it down and up the high mountain we live on, and on freeways in the far left lane, and still get very respectable efficiency for such a large vehicle, mostly varying from 270 - 300 Wh/mile depending on conditions. We park outside in sub-freezing overnight temperatures, but the battery is warmed while the car charges. The car is so aerodynamic that hitting EPA range is do-able even at normal highway speeds.

The Model 3 is more efficient, of course, and we normally get about 250 Wh/mile on our AWD model. Compared to our Model S, I feel like it might be slightly harder to hit the EPA range with the Model 3, but much of that may be due to using Autopilot which drives less efficiently than a good human due to more frequent acceleration/deceleration.

I will admit that, while we live in a cool to cold mountain climate and sometimes get lots of snow, our longer drives involve leaving the mountain and driving around southern California and the West (including high deserts where it gets quite chilly but not generally bitter cold). This isn't quite comparable to driving the Thruway across New York State when the temperature is far below freezing and the wind chill is even worse. Maybe your 40% isn't so far off in really bad conditions. It just hasn't at all reflected my experience in more normal conditions.

 

[garrett5688]

does the $2500 lock in the price for when it's available? this is different than the reservation for the 3... so i could put $2500 down for a fully maxed out Y and be protected from price increases? if they drop... just cancel and reorder

 

[gilscales]

does the $2500 lock in the price for when it's available? this is different than the reservation for the 3... so i could put $2500 down for a fully maxed out Y and be protected from price increases? if they drop... just cancel and reorder

No, just guaranties an interest free loan to your favorite company! and a bit earlier delivery date, I missed the back seat cushion change by a month but at least I got the newer front seats and the softer suspension, this time I'll let Tesla make 200,000 to 300,000 and work out any changes first before I buy, no hurry now since I still love my 3

I really like the Y and will probably sell the 3 a little earlier than I originally planned to switch out to the Y, that hatchback and cargo space is a HUGE difference.

IMO they could have just skipped the 3 and went straight to the Y.

 

[Watts_Up]

IMO they could have just skipped the 3 and went straight to the Y.

At the time of the Model 3 design, I wonder why Tesla don't use some kind of focus group
where they would show (in an anonymous way) different possible options before finalise a project.

I still don't understand why the Model 3 doesn't have a hatch like the Model S.
I just guess one issue was to move the back pillar allowing to lower the roof without impacting the rear passengers head room.

There's a Reason for the Tesla Model 3 Trunk Design

 

[Watts_Up]

If the Model Y was actually a hatchback and 10% smaller than a Model 3, I'd be back in line.
Oh well, it will probably be 3-4 years before we need a new car.
Maybe Tesla will bow to demand in Europe by then.

In Europe the VW Jetta (length 185" or 470 cm) doesn't sell as much as the VW Golf (length 167" or 423 cm)
Idem for the Toyota Prius compared to the Toyota Yaris.

The Tesla Model 3 length (185" or 470 cm) has the same legth as the VW Jetta.
The real best selling Tesla in Europe would be a Tesla Model 2 (hatchback and about the size of the VW Golf)

 

[gilscales]

Don't expect the Model Y can seat 7 real people in real world

I don't know what everyone is complaining about, I was told that 2 dismembered hookers will fit back there with no problems, I mean really lets not get greedy people!

 

[ggnykk]

Are you saying this based on your actual experience owning an EV, or just from studying Youtube videos? You're right about only using 5-10% charge to 80-90% charge in typical Supercharging sessions, and the heater certainly does reduce range, but your "40% of EPA range" doesn't match my Tesla experience.

We've been driving EVs since 2011, and what you're saying may be true of the Nissan LEAF, particularly older models. Our LEAF has mediocre aerodynamics, no battery heater, the range really suffers in winter cold.

Our Model S has been great, though. We drive it down and up the high mountain we live on, and on freeways in the far left lane, and still get very respectable efficiency for such a large vehicle, mostly varying from 270 - 300 Wh/mile depending on conditions. We park outside in sub-freezing overnight temperatures, but the battery is warmed while the car charges. The car is so aerodynamic that hitting EPA range is do-able even at normal highway speeds.

The Model 3 is more efficient, of course, and we normally get about 250 Wh/mile on our AWD model. Compared to our Model S, I feel like it might be slightly harder to hit the EPA range with the Model 3, but much of that may be due to using Autopilot which drives less efficiently than a good human due to more frequent acceleration/deceleration.

I will admit that, while we live in a cool to cold mountain climate and sometimes get lots of snow, our longer drives involve leaving the mountain and driving around southern California and the West (including high deserts where it gets quite chilly but not generally bitter cold). This isn't quite comparable to driving the Thruway across New York State when the temperature is far below freezing and the wind chill is even worse. Maybe your 40% isn't so far off in really bad conditions. It just hasn't at all reflected my experience in more normal conditions.

Based on studying Youtube video in very detail.
Do you just turn off the heat in winter time to maximize the range? What's the max range of Model 3 based on your experience in winter time at highway speed with the heat on? 180 miles? (from 90% battery to 5% battery let's say)

 

[abasile]

Do you just turn off the heat in winter time to maximize the range?

We normally keep the heater on when it's cold, but there's no need to run it full blast. I've found it works well to set the heat at 68F / 20C and use the seat heaters if more warmth is desired.

What's the max range of Model 3 based on your experience in winter time at highway speed with the heat on? 180 miles? (from 90% battery to 5% battery let's say)

Our family has the Model 3 Long Range AWD which is rated at 310 miles of range. There's a 170 to 180 mile drive that we do quite regularly (the mileage varies depending on stops made), and probably 75% of the miles are on Autopilot. Normally, we charge the car to about 255 rated miles (82%) and arrive home with 50 to 60 miles remaining. However, when we had a cold snap last month with temperatures in the teens Fahrenheit on our mountain range and in the 30s, 40s and 50s Fahrenheit down below at our destinations, we were returning home with only about 20-30 miles remaining. So the cold and the heater use did give us a range hit. It would be worse if the temperatures were well below freezing everywhere.

85% of the range of the AWD car would be 263 miles. In moderate cold like what I described above, that may drop to very roughly 220 miles "rated" or 200 miles actual, based on our experience. Reportedly, severe cold (sub-zero Fahrenheit with wind chill and snow on roads, i.e. Polar Vortex conditions) could cut the range in half or more, but we have no experience with that.

If I had to drive long distances in Polar Vortex conditions (God forbid), then I'd probably bite the bullet and charge close to 100% at Superchargers if I had any doubts at all about the range, and I'd try not to get below 20-30% just to have some extra margin. I would greatly lower my expectations for miles traveled per day and try to stay at lodging with EV charging or access to 240V outlets.

 

[dgpcolorado]

One of the things that really impacts range in winter is driving with snow or slush on the road. However, driving in those conditions usually requires slower speeds and that helps reduce aerodynamic drag somewhat. One doesn't usually take road trips in difficult driving conditions and for local driving range doesn't really matter. (In the recent snowstorm in Colorado I was visiting friends in Boulder and I just waited another day to cross the mountains to get home. The roads were unsafe and some were closed anyway. The mountain pass nearest where I live has been closed for more than a week, due to avalanches. It is winter, after all.)

As always, preheating while plugged-in greatly reduces the heater use while driving. Preheating also warms the battery, which helps if parked in below freezing temperatures. Of course, just slowing down stretches the range, if it becomes necessary to reach the destination. This is where using navigation to watch the battery percentage at the destination becomes the most important tool for safe and fun road trips.

 

[S'toon]

Ask me again in 2 years.

 

[ggnykk]

We normally keep the heater on when it's cold, but there's no need to run it full blast. I've found it works well to set the heat at 68F / 20C and use the seat heaters if more warmth is desired.


Our family has the Model 3 Long Range AWD which is rated at 310 miles of range. There's a 170 to 180 mile drive that we do quite regularly (the mileage varies depending on stops made), and probably 75% of the miles are on Autopilot. Normally, we charge the car to about 255 rated miles (82%) and arrive home with 50 to 60 miles remaining. However, when we had a cold snap last month with temperatures in the teens Fahrenheit on our mountain range and in the 30s, 40s and 50s Fahrenheit down below at our destinations, we were returning home with only about 20-30 miles remaining. So the cold and the heater use did give us a range hit. It would be worse if the temperatures were well below freezing everywhere.

85% of the range of the AWD car would be 263 miles. In moderate cold like what I described above, that may drop to very roughly 220 miles "rated" or 200 miles actual, based on our experience. Reportedly, severe cold (sub-zero Fahrenheit with wind chill and snow on roads, i.e. Polar Vortex conditions) could cut the range in half or more, but we have no experience with that.

If I had to drive long distances in Polar Vortex conditions (God forbid), then I'd probably bite the bullet and charge close to 100% at Superchargers if I had any doubts at all about the range, and I'd try not to get below 20-30% just to have some extra margin. I would greatly lower my expectations for miles traveled per day and try to stay at lodging with EV charging or access to 240V outlets.

So 170 miles real world range from 82% of battery down to around 10% battery in 40s degree weather and heater on at 68F?
And i assume you have 18 inch wheel with aero cover in your AWD LR M3?

 

[ggnykk]

One of the things that really impacts range in winter is driving with snow or slush on the road. However, driving in those conditions usually requires slower speeds and that helps reduce aerodynamic drag somewhat. One doesn't usually take road trips in difficult driving conditions and for local driving range doesn't really matter. (In the recent snowstorm in Colorado I was visiting friends in Boulder and I just waited another day to cross the mountains to get home. The roads were unsafe and some were closed anyway. The mountain pass nearest where I live has been closed for more than a week, due to avalanches. It is winter, after all.)

As always, preheating while plugged-in greatly reduces the heater use while driving. Preheating also warms the battery, which helps if parked in below freezing temperatures. Of course, just slowing down stretches the range, if it becomes necessary to reach the destination. This is where using navigation to watch the battery percentage at the destination becomes the most important tool for safe and fun road trips.

Isn't the trip planner from the car screen extremely inaccurate in winter time? I don't know if Tesla solved it yet, it has been a big problem for many many years.
I am talking about the % of battery remaining at destination, mins of supercharging time required at each station etc.

 

[abasile]

So 170 miles real world range from 82% of battery down to around 10% battery in 40s degree weather and heater on at 68F?
And i assume you have 18 inch wheel with aero cover in your AWD LR M3?

No, maybe closer to 200 miles if the weather is in the 40s continuously. Our situation with the colder-than-usual 170-180 round trips was that the battery was cold-soaked in teens (F) temperatures for at least an hour after completion of overnight charging, the car was driven on snow/ice for a bit, then with limited regen down the mountain where the temperatures were in the 30s in the morning, and then on a freeway round-trip where the temperatures gradually rose to the low 50s, then back up the mountain into sub-freezing temperatures.

And yes, 18” wheels with aero covers.

 

[dgpcolorado]

Isn't the trip planner from the car screen extremely inaccurate in winter time? I don't know if Tesla solved it yet, it has been a big problem for many many years.
I am talking about the % of battery remaining at destination, mins of supercharging time required at each station etc.

Tesla drastically improved navigation energy estimates with a firmware update in April 2018. They still assume mild weather, so the initial estimate may be off -- you generally charge to a higher buffer level in winter conditions or when facing a strong headwind. However, the estimate of battery percentage will update in real time as you drive, based on actual energy use. If the battery percentage at the destination falls too low, navigation will suggest slowing down or finding additional charging.

The best strategy when this happens is to slow down a little right away, rather than slowing down a lot nearer the destination. You can speed up again once you know you have it made or if the battery percentage at the destination starts rising again.

Yes, the estimated Supercharging times will be too short. So what? Charge to the buffer level appropriate for the driving conditions.

This stuff isn't that difficult to learn or do. Perhaps Tesla should include a tutorial in the manual on how best to use the navigation energy estimate, but how many people would actually read it? Most of us figure it out for ourselves. The point is that the tool is there if you want to use it. Or you can do what I've seen some first-Tesla-road-trip drivers do: charge to near full at each stop. Not very time efficient, to put it mildly, but it helps them overcome range anxiety.

One caveat when using navigation to a destination just on the other side of a high mountain pass: be sure to have enough energy to get to the top of the pass! The energy plot is helpful for this, as you can see from this recent example of a route to the Poncha Springs, Colorado, Supercharger Station via Monarch Pass (11,312 feet, 3448 meters):