Poll for current owners: first production or waiting?

[McHoffa]

but the problem is that online orders didn't open until (if memory serves) around 7PM pacific.

Online orders, yes, but stores were open at 10am local times, and there were lines all over the world. Australia already had a line on March 30 (US time). Also, I think people did get online to order and watch the reveal all over the world as obsessively as we did in the US. So I think it's safe to still assume 50% for US.

 

[run-the-joules]

Online orders, yes, but stores were open at 10am local times, and there were lines all over the world. Australia already had a line on March 30 (US time). Also, I think people did get online to order and watch the reveal all over the world as obsessively as we did in the US. So I think it's safe to still assume 50% for US.

That's fair. I'm taking the more conservative/negative tack, but let's hope you're right I also honestly don't expect higher than 50% conversion from reservation -> order when all is said and done but the earlier reservations I feel are more likely to be turned into orders and so for pessimism's sake I'm saying 100% will become orders. I'm also not sure what the first production vs "other specs" split will be like for other demographics outside of existing owners. Obviously S/X owners are more likely to be affluent and easily afford First Production, but does that equate to a corresponding increase in actual First Production *orders*? Who knows.

 

[Moderatefan]

WALL OF TEXT STARTS NOW:


Oh, other countries aren't what I'm worried about for now, just the idea that my window is probably predicated on me getting some level of advantage because I'm close to the factory. I think there are allegedly 100-120k reservations ahead of me (plus all the fine upstanding citizens who have jumped the queue by buying an S or X and/or making a reservation while having said S or X, minus any cancellations) because I reserved somewhere between 830-9pm PST on 3/31.

So let's do some back of the napkin math:

Wow, all that math A lot of people are on edge, it seems... Sorry for my innocent attempt to pinch CA reservation holders. I just couldn't let this go "I'm still scared that they're going to open up to all regions" w/o some rebuttal from the suffering reservation holders of other states The Feb timeframe for me, however, seems highly unlikely even at the 5K/week production rate, unless they start delivering to other regions before they are done with CA.

 

[run-the-joules]

Wow, all that math A lot of people are on edge, it seems... Sorry for my innocent attempt to pinch CA reservation holders. I just couldn't let this go "I'm still scared that they're going to open up to all regions" w/o some rebuttal from the suffering reservation holders of other states The Feb timeframe for me, however, seems highly unlikely even at the 5K/week production rate, unless they start delivering to other regions before they are done with CA.

Oh don't get me wrong, I am *100%* sympathetic to other folks waiting in line. But in the end, I'm also really selfish . Though truth be told, the very act of doing that napkin math actually made me a lot more optimistic in general and I had to kinda stretch to be sufficiently pessimistic about certain parts.

 

[daniel]

Here's hoping…

Best of luck. To you and to us all.

That's fair. I'm taking the more conservative/negative tack, but let's hope you're right I also honestly don't expect higher than 50% conversion from reservation -> order when all is said and done but the earlier reservations I feel are more likely to be turned into orders and so for pessimism's sake I'm saying 100% will become orders. I'm also not sure what the first production vs "other specs" split will be like for other demographics outside of existing owners. Obviously S/X owners are more likely to be affluent and easily afford First Production, but does that equate to a corresponding increase in actual First Production *orders*? Who knows.

My feeling is that the $1,000 deposit, even though it's refundable, will result in a high rate of conversion. People have to be pretty serious or pretty rich to plunk down that kind of money. A few people will end up getting the S instead. A few will find their finances don't permit it after all. But I think most will get the car.

OTOH, a lot of people will wait for the $35K version, or the AWD version. So, based on absolutely nothing whatsoever, I'm going to guess that 50% will pass up the first production, moving the rest of us up a bit. You are in CA and I think you've said you're a non-owner with a Jan-Mar estimate. I'm an owner in WA and have a Dec-Feb estimate. I'm thinking maybe west-coast states owners might be ahead of CA non-owners, but I'm going to guess that first-day CA non-owners may come before owners in other regions.

I figure add two months to their Delivery Estimate and we should have our cars, barring new problems.

I got an email from Tesla today. I was so excited! I opened it and it was a newsletter/advertisement for S/X and Powerwall and solar roof, and if you make enough referrals you might get to watch Space-X launch the Falcon Heavy rocket, the world's most powerful rocket. I'm pretty sure you get to watch from miles away. And all new S and X will be dual-motor AWD.

 

[WileyTheMan]

I'm an owner in WA and have a Dec-Feb estimate. I'm thinking maybe west-coast states owners might be ahead of CA non-owners, but I'm going to guess that first-day CA non-owners may come before owners in other regions.

The logistics are probably a little more complex than that, but I think overall you are right. However we may see groups of owners and nonowners getting their design studio opened up at the same time if production starts hitting their stride.

 

[run-the-joules]

The logistics are probably a little more complex than that, but I think overall you are right. However we may see groups of owners and nonowners getting their design studio opened up at the same time if production starts hitting their stride.

I just made a post on reddit, I'm gonna try and collect as much data as I can and drill deep into this. Time to put my skills to work.