Reeler
Decade of Pure EV Driving
I just want to be at the front of the AWD line since I am a current owner and reserved in store on the first day. I think the tax credits will start phasing out in 3Q2018 so want a 2Q2018 delivery of my AWD.
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I would think they would send out emails in the same order as original invitations that say something like "Dual motor configuration is now available to you"
I've flipped back and forth a few times, but if the invite arrives before I change my mind again, I'll order right away. Then in a year, when AWD is available, I'll consider upgrading. Maybe I'll get the P-AWD. But my present thinking is that I want the safety features of the 3 (as compared with my Roadster, which is beautiful and fun and exciting to drive, but not as safe a car.)
I’ve been cursed with an acceleration addiction after driving a V8 Mustang for a few years (0-60 in the mid-4s). The long-range Model 3 is almost as quick and may feel quicker due to “jerk” (d3x/dt3). Still, to satiate my need for speed I may wait until the specs and pricing are available for the AWD and performance Model 3, assuming I have the patience for it. First world problems.
EV-lutioin
Active Member
If you’re on the fence you might consider waiting a few weeks or months to configure. By then maybe we will know more about the AWD specs and pricing, and more of the early production issues may be ironed out. The tax credit is likely to last until Q2 or better.I got my invite on Friday and I can't decide.
Questions that Tesla should answer ASAP so that their most enthusiastic line-waiting customers can make informed decisions about whether to order LR+PUP right away when their time to configure comes up, or choose to wait for a different config:
AWD:
AWD:
- What's the price for AWD? AWD+P?
- What's the acceleration, efficiency, and take for AWD? AWD+P?
- What options will be bundled with each configuration? (LR battery? PUP? Air suspension?)
- What does the front center console "open storage" area look like on non-PUP vehicles, particularly where the phone docks are on the PUP?
- What dashboard materials will be used?
- Definitively confirm standard front heated seats.
You can always wait to find out. You can still order an LR-PUP car later.
Reeler
Decade of Pure EV Driving
When AWD came out for the Model S, I ordered one the first day. Tesla preferenced the P versions so mine took 4 months to fulfill.
I agree that Tesla ought to give us this information. But of course, nobody is being forced to buy. Companies often reveal new products at the last minute, to the extreme disappointment of people who buy the previous version on its last day. At least we know that AWD and P are coming, and can choose to wait without losing our place in line.
Tesla might figure that they prefer to sell the first cars to the people so enthusiastic that they don't care, as these people will be less critical of shortcomings. They might feel that if the above information is critical to you, you'd be better off waiting.
I would encourage everyone to wait, so that I can get mine sooner.
EV-lutioin
Active Member
That is my concern. What if the AWD initially only comes in the P version, as they did with the MS and MX... in that case it could push non-P AWD deliveries to late 2018 and out of the tax refund window.
Elon’s tweets seem to imply AWD and P are distinct for Model 3:
Twitter (P “middle of [2018]”)
Twitter (AWD “in about six months or so [from July]”)
Obviously the timing has changed since then due to Gigafactory bottlenecks, but the fact that he pointed out different times for each would imply that they are distinct versions. Nothing definitive but it’s something anyway.
Yeah, Elon made it clear that AWD would be available before P. And on my Delivery Estimate page, estimates are given for First Production, Standard Battery, and Dual-Motor All Wheel Drive, but Performance is not listed. The clear implication is that Performance will come later, and they don't even have a time estimate yet.
Bruin1996
Member
WileyTheMan
Peanut Gallery Member
Cost is a factor to me. I'd love AWD/performance options, but priority is big battery and the PUP and that gets to the top of my budget.
You should be rightfully scared, my estimator shows Feb-Apr 18 for first delivery. I'm in CO and put a reservation on Apr 1, 16 when the counter was around 300K. My assumption is that at least 50% are U.S. orders, i.e. 150K people plus employees and current owners are ahead of me.
WALL OF TEXT STARTS NOW:
Oh, other countries aren't what I'm worried about for now, just the idea that my window is probably predicated on me getting some level of advantage because I'm close to the factory. I think there are allegedly 100-120k reservations ahead of me (plus all the fine upstanding citizens who have jumped the queue by buying an S or X and/or making a reservation while having said S or X, minus any cancellations) because I reserved somewhere between 830-9pm PST on 3/31.
So let's do some back of the napkin math: If we figure 50% are US orders, that's 50-60k ahead of me. If we use the results of this thread's poll as absolute gospel and assume that 41.x% of people will take first production (and let's round up to 50% to be even more conservative), that's 25-30k ahead of me. Let's say that by end of year Tesla have produced 2,500 Model 3 for sale, so that puts 22.5-27.5k cars ahead Tesla is able to hit plural "thousands" per week production by end of year per Musk's claims, and we use the most conservative figure of 2,000/wk to meet that AND they don't improve at all, that's 12-14 weeks of production to get to approximately where I am in line.
So 12-14 weeks of 2k/week production means they should be able to get pretty close to that window, right?
The problem is the number of assumptions that had to be made to come to a borderline optimistic result:
1. The assumption that Tesla will have "thousands" of units per week being built by end of year. I haven't seen anything that makes me believe they're particularly close to that yet, but there are almost two weeks left in the year and I've heard (unverified) word from multiple sources that they are going to be producing through the holidays (though no indication if they're going to be running reduced staff or at a lower rate). Likelihood? I'm gonna call it 35% chance they'll hit 2k per week this year because my gut feeling (with absolutely not a single shred of evidence) is that they're at somewhere between 400-700 per week right now. If they're not at 2k/wk by 12/31, all the math is void.
2. The assumption that the US only accounts for 50% of orders. Out of the full 500k or so I'd be willing to accept that figure, but the problem is that online orders didn't open until (if memory serves) around 7PM pacific. That's early morning in Europe and reflexively I imagine many people weren't rushing to find news and reserve at work. I have a sneaking suspicion that US orders are closer to 75-80% of the first 120,000 reservations. Again, gut feeling, no actual evidence.
3. Delivery logistics. Even with the low volume of cars being produced right now, Tesla seem to be having problems matching cars to orders and getting them into customer hands. There might be more to this but I can only go off of gut feeling because Tesla aren't sharing much info.
4. Configuration: There is no change to the available options before I get my invite. If they introduce standard range battery, non-premium interior, white interior, or any other changes that would get people to stop deferring and configure their order immediately, all bets are off.
The X-Factor: What if they actually do ramp well and continue past 2k/week in the new year? Obviously that's good overall, but it *increases the likelihood of Assumption 4 becoming invalid*.
So what's my thinking? Well, if California non-insiders (classified as employees, VIP investors, owners, and family or very close friends of anyone in that list) *do* get first crack at the cars, I think there's actually a reasonable chance that I might get my car in the Jan-Mar window because data suggests that roughly 45% of US Tesla sales are to people in California (and let's call it 50% for easy math), meaning that there could be as few as 11.25-13.75k orders ahead of me that need to be filled before I get mine. That's the only situation where I can be remotely optimistic about the chances of getting my car in "Jan-Mar", at least without more info.
