I'm curious when (if ever) you expect Tesla vehicles to be capable of (and approved for use with) Level 3 or Level 4 autonomy on highways, allowing the driver to, for example, read a book as the car does the driving. Also curious if you think any existing hardware (HW3 or HW4) will be able to, or will HW5 or later be required.
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Tam
Well-Known Member
Current hardware is missing a front bumper camera so it has to assume what it cannot see below the hood.
As Tesla software got matured after the first AP1 introduction in 2014, the nags are getting stricter and worse so it's really hard to read a book after 10 years of advancement.
As Tesla software got matured after the first AP1 introduction in 2014, the nags are getting stricter and worse so it's really hard to read a book after 10 years of advancement.
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The nags have gotten stricter, largely due to government requests and in response to the defeat devices, but at the same time autopilot's handling of highways has gotten much better, so that's why I'm strongly hoping (as potentially unrealistic as it may be) that we get a nag-free level 3/4 system sometime vaguely soon. Personally I'm completely fine with the level of nags given its behavior on city streets, but on highways the nags seem very disproportionate to the actual amount of supervision that is actually required.
Tam
Well-Known Member
To review L3 and 4:
Mercedes takes responsibility when its L3 hits an obstacle.
During its L3, a driver is allowed to be distracted with reading, watching video, playing video games... but must still be awake to take over when the conditions for L3 are not met (CA allows L3 but AZ doesn't so the system will alert the driver to take over when getting closer to CA-AZ border). You can turn on Mercedes L2 in AZ and the rest of states that don't allow L3. A blind person is not allowed to drive an L3 car.
Waymo takes responsibility when its car is operating in its L4 mode. If there's something is wrong, it has to be towed or retrieved by a technician. A blind person is welcome to hop in an L4 car alone with no drivers.
Tesla has never been receptive in taking responsibility even in very slow speeds like auto Park or summons.
Tam
Well-Known Member
Part of the nag is because the Autosteer might go nuts and steer the wrong way.
After 10 years, the steering algorithm is still not stable enough for hands-free.
That is in contrast with hands-free GM Super Cruise since 2017. What you buy is what you got: no nags for not placing your hands on Super Cruise steering wheel.
There can be a chasm of difference between a limited ODD L3 and an all highway ODD L4. So Tesla could implement a few miles of EXTREMELY limited ODD in a couple of jurisdictions (like the Mercedes) "tomorrow". However a near full and near limitless highway ODD L4 could be a decade or more. So the poll varies too much and not specific enough to be useful.
TresLA
Member
From what we’ve seen, Tesla hasn’t ever expressed interest in L3 nor L4, so they’ll never “achieve it” since they’re not trying for it. There’s no need and it’s not like autonomy follows these SAE levels, hence why so many have tried forming other standards/categories.
To put it simply, Tesla has always viewed L5 as the next step after L2 because they’re in the camp that doesn’t view autonomy the way SAE predicted progress.
To put it simply, Tesla has always viewed L5 as the next step after L2 because they’re in the camp that doesn’t view autonomy the way SAE predicted progress.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Only competition can push Tesla into offering L3 on freeways. It absolutely makes no financial sense to take responsibility.
Let me put it this way - other solutions to your commute problems are more likely than a L3 Tesla.
Tam
Well-Known Member
Just because someone can do it, that doesn't mean it's successful for others also who copy the method.
Tesla did the 2016 FSD demo with a pre-programmed route and pre-digitized map, and it still suffered a crash and had to be repaired.
In 2018, the explanation for skipping coast-to-coast FSD was that Tesla didn't want to "game" it:
"“We could have done the coast-to-coast drive, but it would have required too much specialized code to effectively game it or make it somewhat brittle and that it would work for one particular route, but not the general solution. So I think we would be able to repeat it, but if it’s just not any other route, which is not really a true solution,”
It's just like an omnivore who says "I can switch to vegan any time if I wanted." The issue is "did I" and not just "could I."
Xenoilphobe
Well-Known Member
Once you added the government regulator comment, Level 3 will be later than 2030 and Level 4 with be later than 2040. Also which government EU or USA.
To be pedantic, current hardware does include a front camera. But only for Cybertruck.
What is "current hardware" for the sake of this poll? Is the the worst AP hardware Tesla is shipping on a car right now? Or the best?
Worst would be HW3 (I think there are still some Berlin Model Ys with HW3). Best would be HW4 with a front camera (which technically has been delivered to customers).
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
Both L3 and L4 exist in California right now and that’s where most Teslas are sold.
I don’t think Tesla will have L3+ until the next decade. I don’t think they’ll do a system like Mercedes and I don’t think any more is practical for consumer vehicles this decade.
For the sake of this poll I would consider the "current hardware" criteria to be satisfied if any currently-shipping vehicles would be able to run level 3 or higher autonomy with no physical hardware modifications, even if it's only a very specific configuration such as only the current cybertruck (with the additional front camera as you mentioned).
Besides the misleading 2016 "demo", Elon's made a bunch of claims that haven't come true on this subject like these:
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