Possible reservation number hint on My Tesla

[Fallenone]

In-store, East Coast, about 2:30pm on March 31st - 386xx.

Reserved a CPO Model S on May 13th. Source code per FallenOne's request:


<input class="CountryCode" type="hidden" name="common_country_code" value="US" />
<input class="ModelCode" type="hidden" name="common_model_code" value="ms" />
<input class="ModelName" type="hidden" name="common_model_name" value="Model S" />
<input class="ConfigId" type="hidden" name="common_config_id" value="11387xxx" />
<input class="Region" type="hidden" name="common_region" value="NA" />
<input class="Uid" type="hidden" name="common_uid" value="9287xxxx" />
<input class="ReservationId" type="hidden" name="common_reservation_id" value="748xxx" />

Not sure if this helps.....

It seems relatively consistent with other data we had. So this common_reservation_id is probably accounting for all reservations made with Tesla, including all models and CPO and maybe showroom cars that were sold to people. As long as people placed a reservation for any main products Tesla sells (may be not Tesla Energy?), the number will go up by 1.

Note: Tesla China is using a totally different system and not accounted for in this one, it starts with 150 and it's an 8 digit number, but by my calculation, it's about 7% of the total.

 

[182RG]

The value comes in the deltas. We could know how many reservations there are (S+X+3) at any given time. By taking the difference between any 2 dates we can see the rate that reservations are coming in, a valuable metric for investing.

Good work. One of the problems, however, is the cancellation rate, especially with the Model 3. This falls into the category of 'Guidance', but can we assume that they are going to clue investors in on what the rate is each quarter as time progresses.

 

[182RG]

There may be some correlation, but it's not totally true. I ordered 3/31 at around 2:30pm and my number is 533xxx. Obviously doesn't make sense since a TON of people have earlier numbers that ordered after me.

Did you have any credit card processing issues?

 

[hockeythug]

Yeah, I just designed a fancy Model X and saved it and my number is 778XXX.

 

[DrManhattan]

Did you have any credit card processing issues?

No but I have 2 pre-orders. Others have mentioned our numbers are different.

 

[austinEV]

Good work. One of the problems, however, is the cancellation rate, especially with the Model 3. This falls into the category of 'Guidance', but can we assume that they are going to clue investors in on what the rate is each quarter as time progresses.

Sure, it is not a perfect metric. It doesn't account for cancellations and maybe saved configs. But, note that the chart value corresponds closely with the fact that we know we recently crossed 400k. So both end points are validated and the curve looks right, so within a reasonable accuracy I would say that was a chart of model 3 reservations over time.

Going forward I suspect it will be a valuable proxy for... something. One could chart the change in reservation by week or month, just taking the earliest and latest datapoint in those periods. Right now it isn't useful because we just started taking data and the velocity was huge in early april. But the may/june/july delta's could be interesting.

 

[plankeye]

Can you remove my bone-headed 5/31/2016 Dallas entry? Thanks!

 

[inspron]

394XXX 12:20PM San Diego UTC Store, California.

 

[Bgarret]

Sure, it is not a perfect metric. It doesn't account for cancellations and maybe saved configs. But, note that the chart value corresponds closely with the fact that we know we recently crossed 400k. So both end points are validated and the curve looks right, so within a reasonable accuracy I would say that was a chart of model 3 reservations over time.

Going forward I suspect it will be a valuable proxy for... something. One could chart the change in reservation by week or month, just taking the earliest and latest datapoint in those periods. Right now it isn't useful because we just started taking data and the velocity was huge in early april. But the may/june/july delta's could be interesting.

If for nothing else....Bragging Rights! Oh, you're a 39xxxx, must have been nice to sleep in on the most important day in the adoption of BEV's! I'm 38XXXX! Boom! I'll be out drivin' my fully loaded Model III while you're still whining in TMC threads about how long it takes to get your delivery - early bird and the worm, bitches!....MIKE DROP!

 

[nickpants]

The Poll owner should change the XXX's to 000's so it sorts better. It's hard to see the trend when people are using both.

 

[enigmata]

408xxx 5:03PM Burbank, CA

 

[browndirt]

608xxx at noon on 4/2 in Monterey, CA. I don't think the reservation id gives any relevant info

 

[ELRev]

I purchased mine on 03/31 around 10AM in Southern California and my number is 388xxx.

I, too, ordered mine on 3/31, around 10AM (~10:03 AM) in Southern California, and my number is 388xxx.

 

[YTDamnit]

433xxx ~7:30 PST (Seattle)

 

[Velaar]

3865xx Montreal 3/31, approximately 1:30pm EST
In store of course.

 

[Anthony7]

I'm 385000 and ordered around 1030am PST (3/31) @ store in Las Vegas. Current owner

 

[Tubesocks]

The Poll owner should change the XXX's to 000's so it sorts better. It's hard to see the trend when people are using both.

Agreed

 

[Tubesocks]

#379XXX
Reserved in-store 3/31 11:50am EST Cleveland, Ohio

 

[austinEV]

The Poll owner should change the XXX's to 000's so it sorts better. It's hard to see the trend when people are using both.

I used if statements to sniff out which parts of the entry was a number and multiplied to get a number.

Also, I am not sure why we are being coy with that number. What on earth is the risk in divulging all the digits?

 

[Nashenas]

I think either IN STORE or UPPER EAST COAST region is denoted by the 37.... I was first in line at Cincinnati, OH store (reserved 10:01am Eastern time) and my common reservation id is 37xxxx , my common uid is 93322xxx. I noticed that @McHoffa in store is 37 and he is in north carolina , however @Nashenas is down in FL and although reserved around same time does not start with 37...

I don't think that's true because that would only limit you to 9999 people per region. I think Tesla would account for more than that per region (just look at the number of preorders).