Possible reservation number hint on My Tesla

[cpa]

I bet the spies from Tesla Motors who monitor this forum are busting their collective guts right about now!

I really think that this coded number is merely a sequence number. Period. Clearly earlier orders have lower numbers. When we are invited to configure, there may be more information on the ordering page that will determine our ultimate position in line.

So, a new buyer in New Jersey who has sequence #383xxx could easily be behind a current, California owner with a number 432xxx once Tesla begins its configuration process.

Then again, I know squat!

 

[JBVanCan]

I bet the spies from Tesla Motors who monitor this forum are busting their collective guts right about now!

I really think that this coded number is merely a sequence number. Period. Clearly earlier orders have lower numbers. When we are invited to configure, there may be more information on the ordering page that will determine our ultimate position in line.

So, a new buyer in New Jersey who has sequence #383xxx could easily be behind a current, California owner with a number 432xxx once Tesla begins its configuration process.

Then again, I know squat!

40ish inline at the Vancouver Store on 3/31/2016 - #500xxx

More to this number then we think.

 

[Laban]

Ordered online 10-15 minutes before the event started - #447xxx. Not a Tesla owner.

 

[Sharkbait]

I bet the spies from Tesla Motors who monitor this forum are busting their collective guts right about now!

I agree. Maybe we need to start correlating UIDs to individual FICO scores and number of sunshine days per month from the city, where you ordered. Tesla employees aren't busy building cars because they're all online laughing at this thread....

 

[DrivingTheFuture]

Despite lining up, being 5th in line at my store, and being an owner, mine is 499xxx. If the lowest ones are 36xxxx, then either these aren't sequential or my order got screwed up somehow. Because there were not 130k orders by the time I made mine.

My two orders are very close though, only 2 apart from each other.

I wonder if the reservations are also coded for region? Since they said deliveries would be regional. Would make sense, maybe the first couple digits are the region, then the rest are the order number within that region? If so, I'm in Orange County, CA.

Another theory was when a server got overloaded it switched to a redundant second server and this could be the reason for the anomaly numbers like yours, or, that it is region specific... but I thought I saw other people from Cali with numbers in the 300 range

 

[brianman]

I placed the first (two) reservation(s) at the Burlingame, CA store at ~10:03AM (they took a group picture of the first 6 that took forever).

More data...

• 3356 - S Sig 729 (RSN 552) - reserved 10/13/2011, MT COTY 11/12/2012, delivered 11/13/2012
• 207836 - S 69xxx - inventory car purchased April 2015
• 499254 - 3 RN10736....
• 499271 - 3 RN10709....

I did my reservation form filling once and chose the "2" option for count. In theory, that might make the database entries sequential -- but did not.

Oddity: The RN numbers and the common_reservation_id numbers are swapped for my two reservations (meaning the smaller RN has the higher common_reservation_id).
Not surprising: The "common_uid" is identical for all 4.

 

[FANGO]

Another theory was when a server got overloaded it switched to a redundant second server and this could be the reason for the anomaly numbers like yours, or, that it is region specific... but I thought I saw other people from Cali with numbers in the 300 range

Yeah, my friend who I went with, who was 1 place ahead of me in line and put in his reservation moments prior to mine (though he did it on the computer in the store rather than the iPad, but they were all just going to a website so I don't think that would matter), is 38xxxx. He was the first on his computer to put in a reservation, and I was the second on mine. He's not an owner, I am.

 

[Trips]

First US orders: (Where am I off)
East Coast: 370XXX
Central: 375XXX
Mountain: 381XXX
West Coast: 384XXX
Online: 409xxx ? maybe 420XXX

With this being said, is it fair to guess there were at most 50,000 instore US orders less rest of world orders.

I am a 376XXX Central
Figuring my place in line = 420 (last instore order) - 381 (first Mountain) = 39,000 + 1,000 (Central in front of me) = 40,000 (Less Rest of World 40% and late East Coast) = 24,000 + Existing + Employee

 

[nanimac]

Mine is 395xxx. I ordered around 9:30am (Hawaii Time) on 3/31 at the store.

 

[T3SLA_NC]

Mine is 579XXX. I ordered online on 04/01/2016 around 11pm EST.

 

[NateB]

Wow, this finding, the tracker, and the data people submitted are awesome! In case there were any remaining doubts, I subtracted 350,000 from the reservation ID numbers from the Model 3 ID tracker and plotted then vs time in red. Then in black I plotted the total reservation numbers (and their times) quoted by Elon. The matchup is excellent!

I think it's pretty safe to say that unless you are an outlier from this curve, you can subtract 350,000 from your reservation ID number and get something that's very close to your global reservation sequence number. Of course, as mentioned, this is not the order we will receive the cars, which we already know is modified by region, S/X ownership, etc. And as people have also mentioned these numbers also include Model S/X reservations/configurations, which are probably an insignificant fraction in the first couple days but a larger fraction over time.

 

[gaswalla]

reserved 3/31 online at 7:01p
input class="ReservationId" type="hidden" name="common_reservation_id" value="420004"

 

[gaswalla]

can OP update OP with the tracker link?

 

[Smokkelaar]

The data in mine sheet shows almost the same:
<iframe src="Tesla reservation tracker"></iframe>

 

[JeffK]

See I wish we could color code that with US vs non-US.

Although I'm probably 110k-120k in the queue I wonder where I'd be in a US only queue. Model 3 would be an excellent Christmas 2017 gift to myself.

 

[austinEV]

I bet the spies from Tesla Motors who monitor this forum are busting their collective guts right about now!

No, they are probably scrambling to implement countermeasures as they did with the VIN's by skipping groups.

There are two audiences in this thread. People who are trying to figure out when they will get their car and people who are trying to gain information arbitrage for investing. I suspect these numbers will be useless for figuring out when you get your car, because of the many factors that will take priority, like option uptake, geography, batching. So Australia 3xxxxxx will be waiting after San Jose 5xxxxxx I am sure.

However, for the people looking to find financial metrics this is quite interesting. We don't have great visibility into reservation numbers, and this gives more or less direct visibility into it.

Edit: at the very least, some news sites will pick this up and do a story about how the model 3 reservations passed 450 or 500 or something and use this thread as a source. TM will probably not like that and take countermeasures. It will be easy to see, if the website changes or if there is sudden noise in the reservation numbers like big gaps.

Edit 2: Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA): Here's How To Check Your Possible Model 3 Reservation Number

Geez

 

[everman]

So this is freaking me out a little...

I camped out, was the very first reservation at the Denver store in the Mountain Time Zone and have two really high numbers!

3/31 @ 9:55am (I was let in early to take a picture as the first person)
#496xxx
#496xxx

My friend who was two people behind me has a #379xxx number!!
What gives?

Edit:
And for those paying attention, after I reserved in Denver, I showered at the YMCA, drove to the airport and flew to Hawthorne and attended the unveiling (thus my profile pic!)

 

[everman]

No, they are probably scrambling to implement countermeasures as they did with the VIN's by skipping groups.

There are two audiences in this thread. People who are trying to figure out when they will get their car and people who are trying to gain information arbitrage for investing. I suspect these numbers will be useless for figuring out when you get your car, because of the many factors that will take priority, like option uptake, geography, batching. So Australia 3xxxxxx will be waiting after San Jose 5xxxxxx I am sure.

However, for the people looking to find financial metrics this is quite interesting. We don't have great visibility into reservation numbers, and this gives more or less direct visibility into it.

Edit: at the very least, some news sites will pick this up and do a story about how the model 3 reservations passed 450 or 500 or something and use this thread as a source. TM will probably not like that and take countermeasures. It will be easy to see, if the website changes or if there is sudden noise in the reservation numbers like big gaps.

Edit 2: Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA): Here's How To Check Your Possible Model 3 Reservation Number

Geez

I'm in the "begin to take countermeasures" camp, as my numbers make no sense otherwise. Just found out that my other friend behind me in line also has a 379xxx number.

Could it be I reserved two and they only reserved one?

 

[Itez]

So this is freaking me out a little...

I camped out, was the very first reservation at the Denver store in the Mountain Time Zone and have two really high numbers!

3/31 @ 9:55am (I was let in early to take a picture as the first person)
#496xxx
#496xxx

My friend who was two people behind me has a #379xxx number!!
What gives?

Edit:
And for those paying attention, after I reserved in Denver, I showered at the YMCA, drove to the airport and flew to Hawthorne and attended the unveiling (thus my profile pic!)

you should be ok,If you minus 350,000 from your number you look to be first in line ,my number is 728,080 so looks like im in the high 370,000's , makes sense i pre-ordered on 4/29

 

[Peanutman85]

I just changed it to ask people to convert it to EST as most submissions are from that area. Thanks!!!

Should we be converting to EST or EDT? Since March, the east coast of the US has been on EDT. I converted mine to EST as asked, but not sure if that's what you intended.