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Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

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I never said that synthetic methane was cost effective or has infrastructure built at scale. I said that it is technically possible. It has also been done in pilot capacity demonstrations. Bio-methane on the other hand does have some significant scale. Is is responsible for a significant portion of the renewable hydrogen mandated in California for fuel cell vehicle dispensing. Of course, methane leaks are a major problem.
All I'm saying arguing for methane, of any ilk or in any way, within the premise of either carbon or climate neutrality entails circular reasoning.
 
All I'm saying arguing for methane, of any ilk or in any way, within the premise of either carbon or climate neutrality entails circular reasoning.
Of course, you are entitled to your opinion. I would argue that using existing infrastructure to deliver a compatible fuel with lower carbon intensity than fossil natural gas does have merit. Certainly, squashing all leaks, fossil or otherwise is necessary.

Actively discouraging natural gas and methane usage is also a worthy goal. Many California cities are starting to prohibit new connections to the natural gas network and permits for remodeling discourage or prohibit replacement of natural gas appliances.
 
Of course, you are entitled to your opinion. I would argue that using existing infrastructure to deliver a compatible fuel with lower carbon intensity than fossil natural gas does have merit. Certainly, squashing all leaks, fossil or otherwise is necessary.

Actively discouraging natural gas and methane usage is also a worthy goal. Many California cities are starting to prohibit new connections to the natural gas network and permits for remodeling discourage or prohibit replacement of natural gas appliances.

To me, electrify everything is about reducing infrastructure cost and also consolidating efforts to better protect it. I pay like $12 fee on my gas bill for $3 of gas delivered. Really thinking hard about just replacing my gas appliances as they break and one day cancel my gas service.
 
To me, electrify everything is about reducing infrastructure cost and also consolidating efforts to better protect it. I pay like $12 fee on my gas bill for $3 of gas delivered. Really thinking hard about just replacing my gas appliances as they break and one day cancel my gas service.
I will do the same, but it will take a long time. I have a relatively new house, custom built in 2012, and at that time I carefully considered gas and electric appliances. California Title 24 regs at the time made it difficult or impossible to choose electric central heating and water heating. So, I went with the highest efficiency gas appliances that I could find. Even solar thermal domestic hot water was not affordable, mostly because high efficiency gas tankless water heaters are not compatible with passive thermal solar systems that are basically pre-heating the water. Active glycol based thermal solar is too expensive and poses long term maintenance problems.
 
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new house, custom built in 2012,...difficult or impossible to choose electric central heating and water heating

Um, Published September 19, 2012

How was it impossible to install a heat pump water heater in 2012?
 
Um, Published September 19, 2012

How was it impossible to install a heat pump water heater in 2012?

My guess, permitting to get more power. Even in NV, NVE is still suggesting people switch to gas to save electricity bill... um, that just creates another bill, LOL. I like NVE, we get very good TOU rates, just poking fun at their website.
 
My guess, permitting to get more power.

These run off 120V, seriously, that isn't the reason. It's not like utilities stopped people from buying Nissan Leaf's in 2012 and those charged at 3 kW for many hours. @miimura can answer for himself, but I'm guessing it was up front cost and lack of experience with heat pump tech. When I upgraded my entire house a few years ago, I ate the upfront cost and got solar, heat pump and home battery.
 
Um, Published September 19, 2012

How was it impossible to install a heat pump water heater in 2012?
They were more expensive and not as common back then. My "Green Points" consultant steered me toward high efficiency tankless gas or power vented high efficiency gas tank heater. I think the Title 24 calcs may have penalized the backup resistance elements in the heat pump heater.

Central air heat pumps were also not common at that time. If I was building today, I would go way more aggressive on insulation and sealing, fresh ventilation heat exchange, and go with way bigger solar and all electric. Even back then, I knew the power was unreliable in this neighborhood, so I even plumbed for a nat-gas backup generator. I never got the special permit for the generator and instead put that budget into Powerwalls in 2018.
 
My guess, permitting to get more power. Even in NV, NVE is still suggesting people switch to gas to save electricity bill... um, that just creates another bill, LOL. I like NVE, we get very good TOU rates, just poking fun at their website.
More power?? Nah, I already upsized the service to 400A during discussions with the PG&E service engineer. I had to get the electrical contractor to take out the 200A panel he initially put in and put one that would accept the CL320 meter that PG&E was going to put in. He got me though, there is only one 200A breaker feeding the integrated bus and an empty slot to put another 200A main breaker. I got what I asked for and he got everything within the original 200A load calc.
 
Heat pumps are more than 50 years old. I custom built in 2008 with heat pumps. Anywhere NG is not available, heat pumps have been used extensively for a long time.
You might want to correct your statement to say "locally, heat pumps were not very common in 2012". And it is certainly possible that Title 24 was being stupid and somehow discouraged them.
That being said, winter is still the toughest time to meet all energy needs with solar. Not a bad time to use a little gas.
 
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Um, Published September 19, 2012

How was it impossible to install a heat pump water heater in 2012?
And they're in California where they decided to have tiered rates that essentially forced natural gas heating over electric heating.
Took them far too long to realize that was a huge mistake and they should have pushed TOU instead..
 
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And they're in California where they decided to have tiered rates that essentially forced natural gas heating over electric heating.
Took them far too long to realize that was a huge mistake and they should have pushed TOU instead..

Another unintended consequence of Tiered Rates... rooftop solar generates power when people are not at home consuming the power. Though, they're probably at work or school which is using power during those times.
 
In the case of PG&E, some of the pain of tiered rates is lessened as we get additional lower tier kWh allocations going from NG "heat source" to an all electric heat source rate schedule.
In my Baseline Territory X, the standard Winter Baseline quantity is 10.5 kWh per day while the All Electric Baseline quantity is 15.4 kWh per day. Strangely, All Electric Summer Baseline is only 8.9kWh/day. I don't understand why that is. Standard Summer Baseline is 10.3kWh/day.

Of course, I am on EV2-A which has no tiers, so this baseline stuff doesn't apply.
 
In my Baseline Territory X, the standard Winter Baseline quantity is 10.5 kWh per day while the All Electric Baseline quantity is 15.4 kWh per day. Strangely, All Electric Summer Baseline is only 8.9kWh/day. I don't understand why that is. Standard Summer Baseline is 10.3kWh/day.
Yeah, weird. Looks like only your territory and Territory Q go that "opposite" direction.

We are Territory S so with NG->all electric go from baseline Tier 1 allocation per day of 15.8 kWh->18.7 kWh in the summer and 11.1 kWh->24.9 kWh in the winter. The almost 2.5x increased allocation in winter is helpful in our climate with limited solar PV production + heat pump central air and water heater running at max demand and weakest heat sinks then.

Have been thinking of future days when heat pump stress on the grid/generation will become a problem such as solar PV currently is with the duck curve. From a personal financial/rate schedule perspective, relieved that this seems at least a decade away. From an environmental perspective, dissapointed that this seems at least a decade away.:D
 
Five Asian countries account for 80% of new coal power investment

Five Asian countries are jeopardising global climate ambitions by investing in 80% of the world’s planned new coal plants, according to a report. Carbon Tracker, a financial thinktank, has found that China, India, Indonesia, Japan and Vietnam plan to build more than 600 coal power units, even though renewable energy is cheaper than most new coal plants. The investments in one of the most environmentally damaging sources of energy could generate a total of 300 gigawatts of energy – enough to power the UK more than three times over – despite calls from climate experts at the UN for all new coal plants to be cancelled. Catharina Hillenbrand von der Neyen, the author of the report, said: “These last bastions of coal power are swimming against the tide, when renewables offer a cheaper solution that supports global climate targets. Investors should steer clear of new coal projects, many of which are likely to generate negative returns from the outset.”
 
pv magazine USA: Renewables up to 90% by 2050 would cost less than current generation mix: NREL study. Renewables up to 90% by 2050 would cost less than current generation mix: NREL study

Increasing renewable generation up to 90% by 2050 in the contiguous United States would yield lower system costs than maintaining the current generation mix, according to a research paper published in the journal Joule. Those lower system costs do not count public health, environmental, or climate benefits from increased use of renewables, say the study’s eight co-authors. Seven of the authors are with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL).
 
California refinery production of total gasoline for the first 6 months of the year. Picking up from the 2020 pandemic year, but still below 2019 levels. I would also point out that it wasn't until the first week of April that production in 2021 exceeded 2019. So there is still some pandemic influence in comparing the 2021 data to the 2019 data. For April through June, 2021 production is about 2% below 2019 levels. Could be 2021 continues the down trend first seen from 2018 to 2019.

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