Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

[White Shadow]

Not saying your neighbor is wrong but 50-100 years is a long time.

It is a long time...but just think of all the stuff out there that runs on fossil fuels. Now image the amount of time (and the expense) that would be required to replace them. And then consider that we're not even there technology-wise to replace many of them. How far away are we from seeing commercial airliners that can fly across the world using non-fossil fuels?

Yes, a lot can change in 50 years, but I just don't see it happening that quickly. I think it's going to continue to be a slow transition. My prediction is that we'll have decades of competing technologies together until oil really starts to fade out.

 

[mspohr]

It was an example of why someone would _want_ to do boring jobs. And yes, social interaction is the primary reason. I'm not trying to convince anyone that it's the best reason, only that even if the robots and AI take care of everything, some people will want to do something to feel useful.

Start/Work for a community non-profit.
Useful.
Social interaction.
Not boring.
(That's what I did.)

 

[mspohr]

Eight things the world must do to avoid the worst of climate change

Renewable energy in the form of wind and solar power is now cheaper than fossil fuels across most of the world and the IPCC found that solar power, wind power and reducing the conversion of land to agriculture were the three measures with the strongest potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions globally.

 

[White Shadow]

You might want to read and let your friend know about this little book:

Amazon.com

Sure...I'll send him the link and explain to him that he must be wrong because of that little book.

 

[ggies07]

Sure...I'll send him the link and explain to him that he must be wrong because of that little book.

No laughing matter. It explains in quite detail the physics and chemistry of how everything works and how it's possible for everything to be electric. It's quite simple on a fundamental level.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Uber is not self fulfilling. It's a job that is being done by robots. If you crave human contact, find some friends and hang out.
Same for running a business.

There's a Tesla owner in Maine who has occasionally Ubered to give people an experience of a Tesla.

 

[DrGriz]

Eight things the world must do to avoid the worst of climate change

Renewable energy in the form of wind and solar power is now cheaper than fossil fuels across most of the world and the IPCC found that solar power, wind power and reducing the conversion of land to agriculture were the three measures with the strongest potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions globally.

Just because it might not be easy, doesn't mean we won't move away fairly quickly. I think due to cost factors we will see the transition away from oil at an exponential rate. Who knows?

The subsidies to keep the industry going are entrenched and significant, but they can go away faster as we transition and see the savings. There's a huge cost reason to do it, and I think that will drive the transition, ultimately, as much as climate change.

Will there be some uses that hang on longer? Yes, probably. But first, lets quit burning it!

 

[mspohr]

A radical climate strategy emerges: charge big oil firms with homicide

Authors of paper accepted for publication in Harvard Environmental Law Review argue firms are ‘killing members of the public at an accelerating rate’

www.theguardian.com

Oil companies have come under increasing legal scrutiny and face allegations of defrauding investors, racketeering, and a wave of other lawsuits. But a new paper argues there’s another way to hold big oil accountable for climate damage: trying companies for homicide

The paper is rooted in part in the growing body of evidence fossil fuel companies knew of the harm their products caused and misled the public about them.

Once you start using those terms, you come to realize that’s criminal law,” said Donald Braman, a law professor at George Washington University and Arkush’s co-author. “Culpable mental state causing harm is criminal conduct, and if they kill anybody, that’s homicide.”Arkush said the fact that fossil fuel companies knew that their products worsened the climate crisis and yet continued to extract oil, gas and coal “comes extremely close” to meeting the definition of murder, though the paper lays out the case for multiple types of homicide charges.

 

[White Shadow]

No laughing matter. It explains in quite detail the physics and chemistry of how everything works and how it's possible for everything to be electric. It's quite simple on a fundamental level.

I'm not debating whether not it's possible....I'm saying that it's not possible any time soon. I've already explained why I believe that to be true.

 

[mspohr]

I'm not debating whether not it's possible....I'm saying that it's not possible any time soon. I've already explained why I believe that to be true.

By the end of 2022, global renewable generation capacity amounted to 3,372 gigawatts (GW), growing the stock of renewable power by 295 GW or 9.6%, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA).


Renewables produced an overwhelming 83% of all power capacity added last year.

Renewable Capacity Statistics 2023, released today by IRENA, shows that renewable energy continues to grow at record levels despite global uncertainties, confirming the downward trend of fossil fuels.

The world saw a record 9.6% growth in renewables in 2022

By the end of 2022, global renewable generation capacity grew by 295 GW, or 9.6%, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency.

electrek.co

 

[White Shadow]

By the end of 2022, global renewable generation capacity amounted to 3,372 gigawatts (GW), growing the stock of renewable power by 295 GW or 9.6%, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA).


Renewables produced an overwhelming 83% of all power capacity added last year.

Renewable Capacity Statistics 2023, released today by IRENA, shows that renewable energy continues to grow at record levels despite global uncertainties, confirming the downward trend of fossil fuels.

The world saw a record 9.6% growth in renewables in 2022

By the end of 2022, global renewable generation capacity grew by 295 GW, or 9.6%, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency.

electrek.co

Terrific. And that does nothing at all to help the situation when 99% of all transportation vehicles alone (think planes, trains, automobiles for starters) out there use fossil fuels. Replacing them will take DECADES. Then let's think about industrial equipment.....military equipment....the list goes on and on.

Like I said, oil isn't going away any time soon. 50 years is even a stretch.

This reminds me of the time recently when Biden said that we'd still need oil for the next decade and Congress laughed at him.

 

[mspohr]

Terrific. And that does nothing at all to help the situation when 99% of all transportation vehicles alone (think planes, trains, automobiles for starters) out there use fossil fuels. Replacing them will take DECADES. Then let's think about industrial equipment.....military equipment....the list goes on and on.

Like I said, oil isn't going away any time soon. 50 years is even a stretch.

This reminds me of the time recently when Biden said that we'd need oil for the next decade and Congress laughed at him.

Math.
10% increase compounded for 10 years...

(Same for transport)

 

[SDRick]

There's a good chance that you both may be correct.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Terrific. And that does nothing at all to help the situation when 99% of all transportation vehicles alone (think planes, trains, automobiles for starters) out there use fossil fuels. Replacing them will take DECADES. Then let's think about industrial equipment.....military equipment....the list goes on and on.

Like I said, oil isn't going away any time soon. 50 years is even a stretch.

This reminds me of the time recently when Biden said that we'd still need oil for the next decade and Congress laughed at him.

If you made that more like 30 years, then I'd agree. But given the rate of growth of EV and battery production, 50 years gives too much time for advances, step changes and growth in manufacturing of the technologies.

For example, forecasts put PV _annual_ _production_ at 1TW/year by 2030. Even flatlining from there at only 15% capacity factory that would be adding more than 25% more than current annual global electricity generation by 2055.

 

[White Shadow]

Math.
10% increase compounded for 10 years...

(Same for transport)

Here's something to ponder......The U.S. still have tanks (M60) presently in operation since 1959. And we're talking the most powerful military with the highest budget on the planet.

The MiG-21 fighter jet is still widely used by several different countries and that's been around since 1963.....

The average locomotive is in service for 28 years.....

The average tractor trailer is in service for about 15 years, but no worries, those will all be replace by Tesla Semis, as long as they're hauling potato chips

The average aircraft carrier is in service for 50 years, but that's nuclear powered. The USS Nimitz has been in service since 1972. Again, nuclear powered, but the point here is that there is still lots of equipment that is kept in service for decades.

Even if you consider basic transportation like automobiles....if the average ICE car lasts 12 years and they stopped building them today, then we'd still have ICE cars on the roads for well more than 12 years (being that 12 years is the average). Now consider that even today EVs are just a tiny percentage of new car sales overall, and it's easy to project that ICE cars will be on the roads for several decades at the minimum. And I'm talking about First World Countries here.....2nd or 3rd world countries will continue to consume oil for much, much longer.

No matter how you slice it, oil will be a source of fuel for a long, long time. There's no way around it. But I'm trying to do my part. I have some battery powered lawn equipment. And I'll eventually jump in the EV fold at some point.

 

[White Shadow]

If you made that more like 30 years, then I'd agree. But given the rate of growth of EV and battery production, 50 years gives too much time for advances, step changes and growth in manufacturing of the technologies.

For example, forecasts put PV _annual_ _production_ at 1TW/year by 2030. Even flatlining from there at only 15% capacity factory that would be adding more than 25% more than current annual global electricity generation by 2055.

Maybe we see EVs reach 50% of new car sales in a decade or so if we're lucky. That remains to be seen. I do think the market will continue to grow fairly quickly, as long as infrastructure keeps improving and the battery technology also keeps improving. But like I said, personal transportation is responsible for just a fraction of worldwide oil use. Last time I checked, it was something like 25%. That's a significant amount for sure, but it's the other 75% that's going to be tough to change.

 

[eevee-fan]

Here's something to ponder......The U.S. still have tanks (M60) presently in operation since 1959. And we're talking the most powerful military with the highest budget on the planet.

The MiG-21 fighter jet is still widely used by several different countries and that's been around since 1963.....

The average locomotive is in service for 28 years.....

The average tractor trailer is in service for about 15 years, but no worries, those will all be replace by Tesla Semis.

The average aircraft carrier is in service for 50 years, but that's nuclear powered. The USS Nimitz has been in service since 1972. Again, nuclear powered, but the point here is that there is still lots of equipment that is kept in service for decades.

Even if you consider basic transportation like automobiles....if the average ICE car lasts 12 years and they stopped building them today, then we'd still have ICE cars on the roads for well more than 12 years (being that 12 years is the average). Now consider that even today EVs are just a tiny percentage of new car sales overall, and it's easy to project that ICE cars will be on the roads for several decades at the minimum. And I'm talking about First World Countries here.....2nd or 3rd world countries will continue to consume oil for much, much longer.

No matter how you slice it, oil will be a source of fuel for a long, long time. There's no way around it. But I'm trying to do my part. I have some battery powered lawn equipment. And I'll eventually jump in the EV fold at some point.

Yep, then imagine Russia. LOL

 

[mspohr]

Here's something to ponder......The U.S. still have tanks (M60) presently in operation since 1959. And we're talking the most powerful military with the highest budget on the planet.

The MiG-21 fighter jet is still widely used by several different countries and that's been around since 1963.....

The average locomotive is in service for 28 years.....

The average tractor trailer is in service for about 15 years, but no worries, those will all be replace by Tesla Semis, as long as they're hauling potato chips

The average aircraft carrier is in service for 50 years, but that's nuclear powered. The USS Nimitz has been in service since 1972. Again, nuclear powered, but the point here is that there is still lots of equipment that is kept in service for decades.

Even if you consider basic transportation like automobiles....if the average ICE car lasts 12 years and they stopped building them today, then we'd still have ICE cars on the roads for well more than 12 years (being that 12 years is the average). Now consider that even today EVs are just a tiny percentage of new car sales overall, and it's easy to project that ICE cars will be on the roads for several decades at the minimum. And I'm talking about First World Countries here.....2nd or 3rd world countries will continue to consume oil for much, much longer.

No matter how you slice it, oil will be a source of fuel for a long, long time. There's no way around it. But I'm trying to do my part. I have some battery powered lawn equipment. And I'll eventually jump in the EV fold at some point.

People keep stuff running as long as it makes financial sense.
The issue is that ICE vehicles are much more expensive to fuel and maintain. Will people keep spending 3 to 5 times as much to run their ICE as an EV? In addition, old ICE will require increasing spending on maintenance and at some point they will just be junked in favor of something less expensive.

(I have a 23 year old Land Rover that still runs. I use it for short runs... mostly to the dump or through deep snow. It's expensive to run... five times as much as my EV but I don't drive it much... just a few thousand miles a year. I'll replace it with an EV.)

 

[mspohr]

Yep, then imagine Russia. LOL

Seems to be working out well for the Russians?

 

[mspohr]

Maybe we see EVs reach 50% of new car sales in a decade or so if we're lucky. That remains to be seen. I do think the market will continue to grow fairly quickly, as long as infrastructure keeps improving and the battery technology also keeps improving. But like I said, personal transportation is responsible for just a fraction of worldwide oil use. Last time I checked, it was something like 25%. That's a significant amount for sure, but it's the other 75% that's going to be tough to change.

EVs will be 50% of the market by 2016. That includes all types of commercial trucks from delivery vans to semi tractors where there are strong financial incentives to dump expensive ICE vehicles.