Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

[mspohr]

US Pipelines Contain 4 Years Of US Steel Demand, & Will Be Scrapped For It - CleanTechnica

We've mined enormous amounts of iron and coal in order to build infrastructure for fossil fuels, and we're going to scrap it for new green steel.

cleantechnica.com

With peak oil demand arriving between 2025 and 2030 and peak natural gas around 2035, lots more scrap steel will become available, including the 3 million miles of US pipeline, and 40% of deepwater ships that carry bulk coal, oil, and gas. The US already gets 70% of its steel from scrap via electric steel minimills, and that will spread globally to a much greater extent. The 15% of bulk deep water shipping that is raw iron ore will diminish a lot due to that and higher shipping fuel costs leading to more local processing. Lots more reduction with direct electricity or hydrogen locally to where the ore is mined, HBI or steel ingots containerized instead.

But as teased in the title, there’s a data point worth calling out, the steel available for scrap in just US pipelines. With peak oil demand coming this decade and peak natural gas next decade, over the next 40 years most of the world’s pipelines will be turning into easily accessible, easily mined scrap steel running along the surface, waiting to be scooped up, cut up, and shoved into electric steel minimills

 

[eevee-fan]

US Pipelines Contain 4 Years Of US Steel Demand, & Will Be Scrapped For It - CleanTechnica

We've mined enormous amounts of iron and coal in order to build infrastructure for fossil fuels, and we're going to scrap it for new green steel.

cleantechnica.com

With peak oil demand arriving between 2025 and 2030 and peak natural gas around 2035, lots more scrap steel will become available, including the 3 million miles of US pipeline, and 40% of deepwater ships that carry bulk coal, oil, and gas. The US already gets 70% of its steel from scrap via electric steel minimills, and that will spread globally to a much greater extent. The 15% of bulk deep water shipping that is raw iron ore will diminish a lot due to that and higher shipping fuel costs leading to more local processing. Lots more reduction with direct electricity or hydrogen locally to where the ore is mined, HBI or steel ingots containerized instead.

But as teased in the title, there’s a data point worth calling out, the steel available for scrap in just US pipelines. With peak oil demand coming this decade and peak natural gas next decade, over the next 40 years most of the world’s pipelines will be turning into easily accessible, easily mined scrap steel running along the surface, waiting to be scooped up, cut up, and shoved into electric steel minimills

Soon we will need that steel to make water pipelines.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

US Pipelines Contain 4 Years Of US Steel Demand, & Will Be Scrapped For It - CleanTechnica

We've mined enormous amounts of iron and coal in order to build infrastructure for fossil fuels, and we're going to scrap it for new green steel.

cleantechnica.com

With peak oil demand arriving between 2025 and 2030 and peak natural gas around 2035, lots more scrap steel will become available, including the 3 million miles of US pipeline, and 40% of deepwater ships that carry bulk coal, oil, and gas. The US already gets 70% of its steel from scrap via electric steel minimills, and that will spread globally to a much greater extent. The 15% of bulk deep water shipping that is raw iron ore will diminish a lot due to that and higher shipping fuel costs leading to more local processing. Lots more reduction with direct electricity or hydrogen locally to where the ore is mined, HBI or steel ingots containerized instead.

But as teased in the title, there’s a data point worth calling out, the steel available for scrap in just US pipelines. With peak oil demand coming this decade and peak natural gas next decade, over the next 40 years most of the world’s pipelines will be turning into easily accessible, easily mined scrap steel running along the surface, waiting to be scooped up, cut up, and shoved into electric steel minimills

Fun metals reference. 2019 global mining in quantity of ore:

https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/All-the-Metals-We-Mined.jpg

How could we possible get all the metals we need to electrify everything...?

 

[mspohr]

Fun metals reference. 2019 global mining in quantity of ore:

https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/All-the-Metals-We-Mined.jpg

How could we possible get all the metals we need to electrify everything...?

Hopefully we'll get to the point where recycling metals will replace mining.

 

[White Shadow]

Oil is going to be around for the next 50 years easily. Maybe the next 100 years. There's just too much going on in the world that requires oil and there's no quick and easy way to change that.

My neighbor works at an oil refinery and he reminds me of this every day. And I think he's correct. I don't think anyone old enough to read this thread today will be around by the time we see oil vanish as an energy source.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Oil is going to be around for the next 50 years easily. Maybe the next 100 years. There's just too much going on in the world that requires oil and there's no quick and easy way to change that.

My neighbor works at an oil refinery and he reminds me of this every day. And I think he's correct. I don't think anyone old enough to read this thread today will be around by the time we see oil vanish as an energy source.

Due to its use in the production of plastics and fertilizers, you would be right. But the important thing is to stop BURNING it, and I foresee that happening in my lifetime.

 

[ggies07]

Due to its use in the production of plastics and fertilizers, you would be right. But the important thing is to stop BURNING it, and I foresee that happening in my lifetime.

Right. IF we can just shrink the oil industry down to a small percentage to use only for a few sectors, that will be enough for me in my life time...about 40-50 years left.

But really, do we NEED all things in plastic? No. We could go back to using glass and that would shrink the oil industry even more.

 

[ggies07]

Oil is going to be around for the next 50 years easily. Maybe the next 100 years. There's just too much going on in the world that requires oil and there's no quick and easy way to change that.

My neighbor works at an oil refinery and he reminds me of this every day. And I think he's correct. I don't think anyone old enough to read this thread today will be around by the time we see oil vanish as an energy source.

You might want to read and let your friend know about this little book:

Amazon.com

 

[cusetownusa]

Oil is going to be around for the next 50 years easily. Maybe the next 100 years. There's just too much going on in the world that requires oil and there's no quick and easy way to change that.

My neighbor works at an oil refinery and he reminds me of this every day. And I think he's correct. I don't think anyone old enough to read this thread today will be around by the time we see oil vanish as an energy source.

Not saying your neighbor is wrong but 50-100 years is a long time.

This reminds me of the scene from All Quiet on the Western Front: General Friedrichs comments with conviction that the future of his aide, Brixdorf, is secured, for his family owns a saddle-making factory and those will never go out of demand.

 

[mspohr]

I'd like to recommend the book "Walkaway" by Cory Doctorow. Scifi future where there is abundant free energy and robots which can make anything for free by mining trash. Nobody needs to work.
The interesting part is that only some people walk away from the rat race to take advantage of this. Some remain dedicated to their meaningless unnecessary jobs.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

I'd like to recommend the book "Walkaway" by Cory Doctorow. Scifi future where there is abundant free energy and robots which can make anything for free by mining trash. Nobody needs to work.
The interesting part is that only some people walk away from the rat race to take advantage of this. Some remain dedicated to their meaningless unnecessary jobs.

"meaningless unnecessary jobs". Ask any retiree and you'll find that there's no such thing. Once you're no longer working to make a living, you'll find work to give yourself meaning and feel needed.

 

[mspohr]

"meaningless unnecessary jobs". Ask any retiree and you'll find that there's no such thing. Once you're no longer working to make a living, you'll find work to give yourself meaning and feel needed.

Yes. But it's not a job.

 

[mspohr]

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Yes. But it's not a job.

If I drive for Uber, while retired, am I working for self-fulfillment, doing a job, or both?

If I run a small business, meeting my customer's needs, but don't need the money, is it really NOT a job?

 

[mspohr]

Tesla reveals Megapack project that killed a peaker plant

Tesla has revealed a megabuck project in Oxnard California, which along with community support, helped kill a natural gas power plant.

www.teslarati.com

When locals heard that their picturesque beaches would now be directly next to a natural gas plant, they protested the construction, and the government stepped in to look for alternatives. And while renewable power generation technologies like solar and wind were not nearly powerful enough, a series of 124 Megapacks were. With a combined capacity of 400MWh, locals now have access to clean energy whenever they need it, not just when the wind blows, or the sun shines. Perhaps an even better example of the successful implementation of the Megapack came from last year when the State of Hawaii ditched coal power after installing a set of Megapack stations.

 

[mspohr]

If I drive for Uber, while retired, am I working for self-fulfillment, doing a job, or both?

If I run a small business, meeting my customer's needs, but don't need the money, is it really NOT a job?

Uber is not self fulfilling. It's a job that is being done by robots. If you crave human contact, find some friends and hang out.
Same for running a business.

 

[eevee-fan]

If I drive for Uber, while retired, am I working for self-fulfillment, doing a job, or both?

If I run a small business, meeting my customer's needs, but don't need the money, is it really NOT a job?

Why would anyone want to ride in a car with a human driver. In case you do not follow tech, actual self driving cars are being approved and the service area is growing.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Why would anyone want to ride in a car with a human driver. In case you do not follow tech, actual self driving cars are being approved and the service area is growing.

It was an example of why someone would _want_ to do boring jobs. And yes, social interaction is the primary reason. I'm not trying to convince anyone that it's the best reason, only that even if the robots and AI take care of everything, some people will want to do something to feel useful.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Why would anyone want to ride in a car with a human driver. In case you do not follow tech, actual self driving cars are being approved and the service area is growing.

You have bags and you need somebody to help you get them in and out of the vehicle.
You're lonely and value every bit of human contact you can get.
You're going home alone at night and you want somebody to see you safely into your house. (All the cameras will help mitigate this, although wouldn't address robbery.)

 

[dgpcolorado]

It was an example of why someone would _want_ to do boring jobs. And yes, social interaction is the primary reason. I'm not trying to convince anyone that it's the best reason, only that even if the robots and AI take care of everything, some people will want to do something to feel useful.

Makes sense to me. I retired young (age 45) and have been doing volunteer work for twenty-four years. The main reason was to continue to be a productive member of society. The secondary reason was to keep socially engaged, since I have always lived alone.

Some of my volunteer work is just things that need doing, even if hardly anyone knows about it. Other volunteer work is quite structured and involves working with others; I just don't get paid. Retirees do much of our volunteer work because they have the time and work skills. And want to be useful and engaged.