Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

[iPlug]

The grid WILL need expanded...

Hello from a fairly cold place.
If we're all using heat pumps, the New England grid's heating peak is going to be relatively high.
At peak it's going to operating like resistive heat...

The utilities lie fluently, but as they say, a broken analogue clock is right twice a day...

If the future we are hoping for is deeply full of heat pumps, peak annual electricity use will be early morning (~sunrise) winter in the vast majority of the U.S. and it will easily breach current annual peak summer records.

For most Americans, heating a home uses much more electricity than cooling it, even with heat pumps. (See EIA charts posted earlier in this thread)

Our summers and winters are considerably hotter than most of the U.S., yet we also use markedly more electricity in our peak winter mornings than early summer evenings. Last year our heat pump used 1250kWh to cool the house but 2,202kWh to heat it (148 of which was one off electric resistive backup heat for a few days awaiting a replacement controller board). This annual ratio is typical for us.

 

[eevee-fan]

What if the "customer countries" get credited for both green and non-green energy in China? Meaning, US should get credited for being responsible for the coal use in China because we keep buying stuff from China made using coal power. At the same time, China should get credited for green energy in the "customer countries" because without solar panels from China, those countries will be burning fossil fuel - probably even coal.

This goes back to the discussion about "how many Earths will you need if the rest of the world lives like the US"...

Case in point

 

[mspohr]

U.S. energy production exceeded consumption by record amount in 2023 - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

www.eia.gov

In 2023, energy production in the United States rose 4% to nearly 103 quadrillion British thermal units (quads), a record. Energy consumption in the United States fell 1% to 94 quads during the same period. Production exceeded consumption by 9 quads, more than at any other time in our records, which date to 1949.

 

[eevee-fan]

U.S. energy production exceeded consumption by record amount in 2023 - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

www.eia.gov

In 2023, energy production in the United States rose 4% to nearly 103 quadrillion British thermal units (quads), a record. Energy consumption in the United States fell 1% to 94 quads during the same period. Production exceeded consumption by 9 quads, more than at any other time in our records, which date to 1949.

Every switch from ICE to EV reduces energy usage by 50-70%
Every switch from resistive heat to heatpump reduces energy usage by 70-80%
Every switch from electric water heater to heatpump water heated reduced energy usage by 60-70%.

As more and more make the switch, our energy usage will continue to drop.

 

[mspohr]

BP imposes hiring freeze and halts new offshore wind projects

New boss Murray Auchincloss reverses move away from fossil fuels, which had weighed on company’s share price

www.theguardian.com

Greenpeace UK said BP’s plans were “disappointing but sadly unsurprising”. Areeba Hamid, its joint executive director, said: “Murray Auchincloss had a chance to build on his predecessor’s legacy and become part of the solution to the climate crisis, rather than its harbinger. Instead, BP is following other fossil fuel majors by abandoning renewables and doubling down on oil and gas in the hopes of a quick buck. “This proves once again why the future of the planet cannot simply be left in the hands of executives and shareholders concerned only with milking the fossil fuel cash cow till every drop runs dry. The impacts of the climate crisis are felt more strongly every day: we need world leaders to step in and force the oil majors to stop drilling and start paying for the damage they are doing around the world.”

 

[mspohr]

Sharp rise in number of climate lawsuits against companies, report says

About 230 cases filed against corporations and trade associations around world since 2015

www.theguardian.com

The number of climate lawsuits filed against companies around the world is rising swiftly, a report has found, and a majority of cases that have concluded have been successful. About 230 climate-aligned lawsuits have been filed against corporations and trade associations since 2015, two-thirds of which have been initiated since 2020, according to the analysis published on Thursday by the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.

 

[mspohr]

Colorado oil and gas wells can’t fund their own cleanup. Taxpayers may foot the bill

A Carbon Tracker report shows the cost to safely shut down low-producing wells is $3bn more than what they earn

www.theguardian.com

A report has found that thousands of oil and gas wells across Colorado cannot generate enough revenue to cover their own cleanup cost. More than half the state’s oil and gas wells will generate, at most, $1bn in revenue and it will cost $4bn to $5bn to decommission those sites responsibly. Without quick action by state officials, Colorado taxpayers may be on the hook to foot the remaining $3bn.

 

[mspohr]

North Sea oil and gas firm Perenco failing to seal old wells, documents show

Fears of fire and environmental disaster as company repeatedly misses UK deadlines to decommission sites

www.theguardian.com

The North Sea’s biggest oil and gas infrastructure company is risking fires and environmental disasters, experts have warned, as documents reveal it is failing to plug its ageing oil wells in time and is missing decommissioning deadlines by up to a decade.

The Perenco oil company is owned by the billionaire Perrodo family, who are ranked at No 17 on the Sunday Times rich list. They get hundreds of millions of pounds a year in dividends from their UK oilfields. Perenco UK Ltd paid them a total of £734m in dividends between the beginning of 2022 and June 2023. The failures of Perenco to clean up ageing oilfields risk environmental disasters such as the one at Poole Harbour, experts have said.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

North Sea oil and gas firm Perenco failing to seal old wells, documents show

Fears of fire and environmental disaster as company repeatedly misses UK deadlines to decommission sites

www.theguardian.com

The North Sea’s biggest oil and gas infrastructure company is risking fires and environmental disasters, experts have warned, as documents reveal it is failing to plug its ageing oil wells in time and is missing decommissioning deadlines by up to a decade.

The Perenco oil company is owned by the billionaire Perrodo family, who are ranked at No 17 on the Sunday Times rich list. They get hundreds of millions of pounds a year in dividends from their UK oilfields. Perenco UK Ltd paid them a total of £734m in dividends between the beginning of 2022 and June 2023. The failures of Perenco to clean up ageing oilfields risk environmental disasters such as the one at Poole Harbour, experts have said.

privatize profits and subsidize losses. My uncle (long past retirement age) owns Shell for the dividends. I can't convince him to drop his investment, as I imagine most retirees are in the same boat. They need the dividend income, but can't seem to grasp how these companies will eventually hurt their nest egg.

 

[eevee-fan]

Every switch from ICE to EV reduces energy usage by 50-70%
Every switch from resistive heat to heatpump reduces energy usage by 70-80%
Every switch from electric water heater to heatpump water heated reduced energy usage by 60-70%.

As more and more make the switch, our energy usage will continue to drop.

Correction, I was going by MPG vs MPGe:

When I actually ran the numbers for existing sedans and SUVs..

ICE: 1 gallon of gasoline (=33.4 kWh) to go 15 miles, so 2.23 kWh
EV: 1 kWh goes 4-5 miles, so 0.2 to 0.3 kWh
So ICE to EV in the city reduces energy use by 80-90% plus outputs less heat in the city, a bonus in the summer! Plus no advisory to NOT go driving.

Motorists advised against driving alone in Arizona

Air quality alerts were in place for parts of Arizona because forecasted ozone levels are expected to be unhealthy.

www.newsweek.com

ICE: 1 gallon of gasoline (=33.4 kWh) to go 28 miles, so 1.19 kWh
EV: 1 kWh goes 3-4 miles, so 0.25 to 0.33 kWh
So ICE to EV on the highway reduces energy use by 70-80%!

 

[mspohr]

Even worse than we imagined

Journalists refused entry to Azerbaijan energy conference ahead of Cop29

Incident reignites concerns over crackdown on media before crucial UN climate talks in Baku later this year

www.theguardian.com

Western journalists were refused entry to an energy industry conference in Azerbaijan earlier this month, reigniting concerns over the state’s crackdown on the media ahead of crucial UN climate talks in Baku later this year. At least three journalists from the UK and France have told the Guardian that they felt “unsafe” after they were denied entry to the Baku Energy Week forum, despite registering with the event organisers weeks in advance. The journalists said they were not given a valid reason why they had been turned away, but they chose to leave the venue after “frightening” and “intimidating” encounters with the organisers. The conference was held shortly before research by Human Rights Watch revealed at least 25 instances of the arrest or sentencing of journalists and activists in Azerbaijan over the past year, almost all of whom remain in custody. Campaigners and civil society groups have raised concerns that climate advocacy is being stifled ahead of the UN Cop29 climate talks that will take place in Baku later this year.

 

[Raffy.Roma]

Even worse than we imagined

Journalists refused entry to Azerbaijan energy conference ahead of Cop29

Incident reignites concerns over crackdown on media before crucial UN climate talks in Baku later this year

www.theguardian.com

Western journalists were refused entry to an energy industry conference in Azerbaijan earlier this month, reigniting concerns over the state’s crackdown on the media ahead of crucial UN climate talks in Baku later this year. At least three journalists from the UK and France have told the Guardian that they felt “unsafe” after they were denied entry to the Baku Energy Week forum, despite registering with the event organisers weeks in advance. The journalists said they were not given a valid reason why they had been turned away, but they chose to leave the venue after “frightening” and “intimidating” encounters with the organisers. The conference was held shortly before research by Human Rights Watch revealed at least 25 instances of the arrest or sentencing of journalists and activists in Azerbaijan over the past year, almost all of whom remain in custody. Campaigners and civil society groups have raised concerns that climate advocacy is being stifled ahead of the UN Cop29 climate talks that will take place in Baku later this year.

Another evidence that only way to work out the Climate Change issue is to rely on the UN SECURITY COUNCIL.

The Climate Change issue is crystal clear a matter of Global Security. We need the UN SECURITY COUNCIL to work it out.

One day you will say that I was right IMHO.