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Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

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"He estimated that a larger commercial solar fuel plant could produce about 9 million gallons of solar kerosene per year."

For context, that appears to me to be less than the annual fuel use of a single large international jetliner.

365 days x 1.5 cycle/day x 200,000 lbs fuel load / 6.7 lbs per gallon = ~16 million gallons per year.

Plants either need to be way larger than than the interviewee is contemplating, or we'd need to build ~8000 plants of that size to synfuel today's aviation industry, let alone growth in the coming decades.

That being said, desert coastal areas (where you have tons of sun and water) would be a great fit for these plants.
 
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The California lawsuit is too narrow. It misses most of the world’s biggest oil producers which need to be included. The U.S. and Canada, for example, produce 26% combined. The other 8 on this top 10 list produce 48% combined.


biggest-oil-producers-forex.jpg

https://www.forex.com/ie/news-and-analysis/worlds-biggest-oil-producers/

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
 
The California lawsuit is too narrow. It misses most of the world’s biggest oil producers which need to be included. The U.S. and Canada, for example, produce 26% combined. The other 8 on this top 10 list produce 48% combined.


biggest-oil-producers-forex.jpg

https://www.forex.com/ie/news-and-analysis/worlds-biggest-oil-producers/

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Target what you can, reduce state employment in fossil fuel production, less support for fossil fuel )not more using jobs as an excuse).
 
Target what you can, reduce state employment in fossil fuel production, less support for fossil fuel )not more using jobs as an excuse).
Jobs aren't the real issue - those workers can be reallocated into the renewable energy economy and elsewhere as has been the course of job evolution throughout history.

The world needs to seriously reduce fossil fuel use. But if one just targets Western companies, authoritarian regimes gain further power and fossil fuel consumption does not go down. For example, oil prices are up these days because OPEC+ has it's mafia act together and throttles supply. They have plenty left in the ground to let the world "boil" several times over.

Aside from fairness, cross border tariffs for all fossil fuels would contribute meaningfully towards the goal of reducing fossil fuel consumption.
 
Jobs aren't the real issue - those workers can be reallocated into the renewable energy economy and elsewhere as has been the course of job evolution throughout history.

The world needs to seriously reduce fossil fuel use. But if one just targets Western companies, authoritarian regimes gain further power and fossil fuel consumption does not go down. For example, oil prices are up these days because OPEC+ has it's mafia act together and throttles supply. They have plenty left in the ground to let the world "boil" several times over.

Aside from fairness, cross border tariffs for all fossil fuels would contribute meaningfully towards the goal of reducing fossil fuel consumption.

That's my point, oil jobs disappear and they shift to working on renewables, suddenly then like renewables more. LOL

Yes, tarriff would be a way to account for the cost of fossil fuel imported.
 
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That's my point, oil jobs disappear and they shift to working on renewables, suddenly then like renewables more. LOL

Yes, tarriff would be a way to account for the cost of fossil fuel imported.

Oh, and the fossil fuel tarrif (including taxes/fees levied on US fossil fuel) can fund Universal Healthcare. Those people living in Cancer Alley deserved to have all their healthcare paid for plus additional compensation. Too bad they took one for the team (everyone else enjoying cheap gas).
 
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"He estimated that a larger commercial solar fuel plant could produce about 9 million gallons of solar kerosene per year."

For context, that appears to me to be less than the annual fuel use of a single large international jetliner.

365 days x 1.5 cycle/day x 200,000 lbs fuel load / 6.7 lbs per gallon = ~16 million gallons per year.

Plants either need to be way larger than than the interviewee is contemplating, or we'd need to build ~8000 plants of that size to synfuel today's aviation industry, let alone growth in the coming decades.

That being said, desert coastal areas (where you have tons of sun and water) would be a great fit for these plants.

According to the EIA (https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/wells/pdf/full_report.pdf) the average oil well in the USA produces about 26 barrels per day. Using 42.5gal/barrel that's 0.4 million gallons per year. (Production is greater is you add natural gas.)

There were 916,934 oil and gas wells in the USA in 2021.

But, since 2013, more than half of U.S. oil (Figure 3) and natural gas (Figure 4) production comes from wells that
produce between 100 barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOE/d) and 3,200 BOE/d.

100b/d = 42.5gal/b x 100b/d x 365.25d/y = 1.55Mgal/y
3200b/d = 49.67Mgal/y

So, while 9M gal/y doesn't sound that productive, it would depend on the footprint.

The key question is wholesale delivery cost. The researchers did point out that it needs to be made cheaper.
 
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So, while 9M gal/y doesn't sound that productive, it would depend on the footprint.

The key question is wholesale delivery cost. The researchers did point out that it needs to be made cheaper.

True, I assumed the heliostat footprint of each plant would be pretty large. 100+ hectares maybe? But the article doesn't say, that number is just my WAG at it. But if it's done in such a way that regenerative grazing could be done underneath the heliostats, that changes the land use equation significantly. Especially if waste heat from the plant could create bonus desalination for irrigation of the grounds.

100% accurate on cost. Airlines go from losing money to record profits from USD$0.50/gallon swings in fuel price. There's not a lot of ability to absorb synfuel prices that are any kind of multiple of fossil jet fuel prices. Maybe in the very upper end of private jet operations (a segment of the industry I worked in for a time), where cost waste is less of an issue.

Again, not saying it shouldn't or couldn't be done. Bravo to the researchers for bringing technology to try. But there's a big mountain to climb between demo project and wide spread use of their tech.
 

Daily spot price to shift more demand to days when renewables are plenty. Makes sense as our TOU pricing encouraging charging in the dead of night (no solar and minimal wind) means we are charging using fossil fuel energy.
 

Climate experts connect Sempra’s campaign spending to a legislative push to support expensive technologies that would help its subsidiaries stay in business and prolong dependence on fossil fuels, particularly hydrogen and carbon capture and storage (CCS). Advocates say lawmakers should consider refusing contributions from fossils writ large — gas included. “Lawmakers are Sempra’s lifeline and contributions buy them the influence to continue to pollute and produce fossil fuels,” said Nick Magel, director of the California Climate Accountability Project, author of the report.

 
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This setup was particularly egregious and good the for government of AZ. Brings me some hope. The whole arrangement is a lesson in resource scarcity and long term planning. That it happened to be Saudi Arabia, Arizona, water and beef will be a story that is told in business school somewhere in some time.
"An example of how 2023 was a turning point in the way resource scarcity became a term the general public finally understood and set the stage for the rest of the decade until peak carbon finally happened.
 
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