Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

[David_Cary]

Total solar advocate here but....
Solar panel output goes down with high heat. Is this more than a NG plant output is effected? I have to think so but I don't have data.
And this solar panel output decrease doesn't take a major heat wave - it happens pretty early.
Then, there is the expected life of both solar and battery with high heat (or lower efficiency for a battery that requires more active cooling).

So I have to think that areas with high heat are going to have more issues as solar penetrance gets higher. And eventually, more areas become "high heat" so the problem worsens. NV would seem to be the first to see these issues.

As far as the US consumer - is there really anyone who doesn't realize that we are a big part of the problem? I mean is this really a discussion that we need to have? But - I would also argue that most of this behavior is human nature. We just allow it in ways that other countries don't. And we are wealthy. So wealth + freedom + human nature is a dangerous equation from an earth sustainability viewpoint. I do think there are peculiar American forces at work but it isn't like Europeans weren't buying more SUVs over time - until very recently I imagine. And the short haul flights in Europe are way up.

 

[Raffy.Roma]

Total solar advocate here but....
Solar panel output goes down with high heat. Is this more than a NG plant output is effected? I have to think so but I don't have data.
And this solar panel output decrease doesn't take a major heat wave - it happens pretty early.
Then, there is the expected life of both solar and battery with high heat (or lower efficiency for a battery that requires more active cooling).

So I have to think that areas with high heat are going to have more issues as solar penetrance gets higher. And eventually, more areas become "high heat" so the problem worsens. NV would seem to be the first to see these issues.

As far as the US consumer - is there really anyone who doesn't realize that we are a big part of the problem? I mean is this really a discussion that we need to have? But - I would also argue that most of this behavior is human nature. We just allow it in ways that other countries don't. And we are wealthy. So wealth + freedom + human nature is a dangerous equation from an earth sustainability viewpoint. I do think there are peculiar American forces at work but it isn't like Europeans weren't buying more SUVs over time - until very recently I imagine. And the short haul flights in Europe are way up.

I am not an expert of Solar Panels but I think that this is a technical matter that can be worked out, maybe also using the batteries of an household designed to be completely independent from the grid.

Maybe that my friend @dhrivnak, who is an expert of Solar Systems, could help us.

 

[mspohr]

So we have another good reason for NET ZERO, which is useful not only to work out the Climate Change issue, but also to become completely independent from the grid which could fail.

Distributed generation and batteries take a lot of load off the grid.
I am skeptical of the utility cries for money to build out the grid when local pv and batteries could do the job. Of course, the utilities wouldn't profit.

 

[eevee-fan]

Distributed generation and batteries take a lot of load off the grid.
I am skeptical of the utility cries for money to build out the grid when local pv and batteries could do the job. Of course, the utilities wouldn't profit.

In the Tony Seba future, the utility will just charge us a flat grid fee and the energy is free. Some places are raising their grid fee to at least get something from the 100% 'self powered' rooftop solar owners who sends power into the grid during the day when wholesale electricity is cheap to negatively priced then drawing from the grid in the evening and night when wholesale electricity is higher. Some schemes proposed are income based and are taking quite a beating in the PUC meetings. Perhaps the fee should be based on sq footage (or appraised value like real property taxes) of the home so that larger homes that obviously utilize the grid more, would pay more.

 

[dhrivnak]

I am not an expert of Solar Panels but I think that this is a technical matter that can be worked out, maybe also using the batteries of an household designed to be completely independent from the grid.

Maybe that my friend @dhrivnak, who is an expert of Solar Systems, could help us.

Solar output on hot days is just a few %, maybe 5% on the hottest of days. I would think the drop off on Natural gas plants would be more as they have FAR more heat that needs rejected.

 

[dhrivnak]

Like those we have this summer and next, and next. Not so rare or extreme anymore.

And yet with this "HUGE" heat dome over most of the East USA, very few power outages are being reported, including none in my area. So as I say a rare occurrence.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Total solar advocate here but....
Solar panel output goes down with high heat. Is this more than a NG plant output is effected? I have to think so but I don't have data.
And this solar panel output decrease doesn't take a major heat wave - it happens pretty early.
Then, there is the expected life of both solar and battery with high heat (or lower efficiency for a battery that requires more active cooling).

So I have to think that areas with high heat are going to have more issues as solar penetrance gets higher. And eventually, more areas become "high heat" so the problem worsens. NV would seem to be the first to see these issues.

As far as the US consumer - is there really anyone who doesn't realize that we are a big part of the problem? I mean is this really a discussion that we need to have? But - I would also argue that most of this behavior is human nature. We just allow it in ways that other countries don't. And we are wealthy. So wealth + freedom + human nature is a dangerous equation from an earth sustainability viewpoint. I do think there are peculiar American forces at work but it isn't like Europeans weren't buying more SUVs over time - until very recently I imagine. And the short haul flights in Europe are way up.

Keeping things in perspective:

The Impact of Temperature on Solar Panel Efficiency: How Heat Affects Your Solar Energy System

Solar panel efficiency has a direct correlation with temperature. Learn how heat and cold impact electricity production & how to mitigate negative effects.

blog.ecoflow.com

At 1% efficiency drop for every 2-degrees C above 25C, we're not talking about significant loss of power (e.g. 10% loss at 45C). Yes, cutting out burning would have a more effective impact against high heat areas.

 

[mspohr]

And yet with this "HUGE" heat dome over most of the East USA, very few power outages are being reported, including none in my area. So as I say a rare occurrence.

That's why I'm skeptical of the utilities cries for more money to expand the grid.

 

[dhrivnak]

That's why I'm skeptical of the utilities cries for more money to expand the grid.

The grid WILL need expanded. The transition to EVs will require a good 20% growth and a mass conversion to heat pumps from gas heat another 20%. Either will over tax the current grid.

 

[mspohr]

The grid WILL need expanded. The transition to EVs will require a good 20% growth and a mass conversion to heat pumps from gas heat another 20%. Either will over tax the current grid.

EVs are charged at night when grid demand is low.
Winter Heat pumps will have lower demand than summer A/C.

 

[eevee-fan]

That's why I'm skeptical of the utilities cries for more money to expand the grid.

The real reason, same with all the road and bridge fixing that's needed, is delayed maintenance and replacement to improve profit/lower taxes. Climate change, EVs, Heatpump, etc are just excuses. So TX mandates all these backup natural gas generation because "renewable is not reliable". The utilities keep them offline (thus reducing supply) then charging an arm and a leg when they are "forced" to run them because of "record heat". Like they say in TN, fool me once... LOL

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

EVs are charged at night when grid demand is low.
Winter Heat pumps will have lower demand than summer A/C.

Hello from a fairly cold place.
If we're all using heat pumps, the New England grid's heating peak is going to be relatively high.
At peak it's going to operating like resistive heat.

If we were using natural gas generation that would also add substantially to peak natural gas demand and the New England natural gas grid is currently capacity constrained, leading to relatively high prices in winter.

 

[mspohr]

Hello from a fairly cold place.
If we're all using heat pumps, the New England grid's heating peak is going to be relatively high.
At peak it's going to operating like resistive heat.

If we were using natural gas generation that would also add substantially to peak natural gas demand and the New England natural gas grid is currently capacity constrained, leading to relatively high prices in winter.

Electric heating, unlike A\C, demand is mostly off peak.

 

[mspohr]

https://rmi.org/wp-content/uploads/dlm_uploads/2024/06/RMI-Cleantech-Revolution-pdf.pdf

As the Rocky Mountain Institute reports, the world is experiencing one of those rare moments when complementary technologies become radically cheaper and more available at the same time, leading to a “cleantech revolution.”

The biggest problem with solar at this moment might be that it is too cheap. Prices have plunged below $0.10 per watt as rapidly increasing production capacity for solar panels has exceeded the ability to plan and install more capacity.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Electric heating, unlike A\C, demand is mostly off peak.

Grids have to deal with whatever is thrown at them.
Doesn't matter how often it's very cold at evening peak.
It just matters that it can be.

 

[dhrivnak]

EVs are charged at night when grid demand is low.
Winter Heat pumps will have lower demand than summer A/C.

Depends upon the area, and I see MANY Tesla's charging at SuperCharging during the day. And in NE Tennessee the highest loads have been winter, on cold mornings, so more heat pumps will add to it. Even Elon says the grid needs to be expanded as we electrify more and more things.

 

[eevee-fan]

Depends upon the area, and I see MANY Tesla's charging at SuperCharging during the day. And in NE Tennessee the highest loads have been winter, on cold mornings, so more heat pumps will add to it. Even Elon says the grid needs to be expanded as we electrify more and more things.

We need advancements in application of PCMs. PC when electricity is available (store) and PC when we need it (use). LOL

 

[dhrivnak]

We need advancements in application of PCMs. PC when electricity is available (store) and PC when we need it (use). LOL

Building out the grid will be far easier.

 

[mspohr]

5 charts that shed new light on how people charge EVs at home

A new report draws on 10 years of detailed data to chart charger use patterns, as well as how they can work as home backup and grid-balancing tools.

www.canarymedia.com

 

[eevee-fan]

Building out the grid will be far easier.

Not really, the PCM materials does not have to be at the optimum temp. It could be the source of heat/cold for Heatpump, so you can avoid running on resistive heat.

Resistive heat is 30% efficient when electricity comes from a NG plant.
NG heat is up to 95%
HP space heating is up to 140% with NG electricity (30%) then HP space heating (500%), efficiency can be improved if the heat comes from the ground or tank of PCM materials