Prediction, in Which Year Will New Electric Vehicle Sales Exceed 50% in the United States "Poll"

[cwerdna]

The conservatives tend to actually take the environmental issue a little more seriously, they actually are willing to do something about it, if they're convinced it's real.

I've little evidence of this. The "conservatives" who do care about anthropogenic global warming seem to be in the minority. Just look at the poll results at https://www.npr.org/2023/08/03/1191...ns-economy-natural-disasters-biden-trump-poll. This isn't new.

"almost three-quarters of Republicans (72%) said the economy should be given priority, even at the risk of ignoring climate change. That is up 13 points since 2018 – despite the increases in climate-change-related weather disasters.

A solid majority (56%) overall called climate change a major threat, including almost 9 in 10 Democrats and a slim majority of independents. But 70% of Republicans said it's either just a minor threat or no threat at all.

A similar majority (55%) said climate change is having a serious impact now and an even larger majority (62%) said it is having a great deal or at least some effect on their communities. But in each case that included majorities of Democrats and independents with Republicans feeling the opposite way.

In fact, a plurality of Republicans – 43% – said climate change won't have a serious impact on their communities at all. Another third said it will only have a minor one."

I watched FRONTLINE | Climate of Doubt | Season 2012 | Episode 20 | PBS (from 2012) that was IIRC focused on the an anti-AGW group, the Heartland Institute. There is a transcript.

This group comes up every now and then: Climate Change Skeptic Group Seeks to Influence 200,000 Teachers | FRONTLINE and In Shift, Key Climate Denialist Group Heartland Institute Pivots to Policy | FRONTLINE., for example.

But, I still contend, that is far from the major reason people go to ev's nowadays.

Agreed.

 

[henderrj]

I've little evidence of this. The "conservatives" who do care about anthropogenic global warming seem to be in the minority. Just look at the poll results at https://www.npr.org/2023/08/03/1191...ns-economy-natural-disasters-biden-trump-poll. This isn't new.

"almost three-quarters of Republicans (72%) said the economy should be given priority, even at the risk of ignoring climate change. That is up 13 points since 2018 – despite the increases in climate-change-related weather disasters.

A solid majority (56%) overall called climate change a major threat, including almost 9 in 10 Democrats and a slim majority of independents. But 70% of Republicans said it's either just a minor threat or no threat at all.

A similar majority (55%) said climate change is having a serious impact now and an even larger majority (62%) said it is having a great deal or at least some effect on their communities. But in each case that included majorities of Democrats and independents with Republicans feeling the opposite way.

In fact, a plurality of Republicans – 43% – said climate change won't have a serious impact on their communities at all. Another third said it will only have a minor one."

I watched FRONTLINE | Climate of Doubt | Season 2012 | Episode 20 | PBS (from 2012) that was IIRC focused on the an anti-AGW group, the Heartland Institute. There is a transcript.

This group comes up every now and then: Climate Change Skeptic Group Seeks to Influence 200,000 Teachers | FRONTLINE and In Shift, Key Climate Denialist Group Heartland Institute Pivots to Policy | FRONTLINE., for example.

Agreed.

I was only sharing anecdotal evidence. The things that I have experienced, as I said. In my limited experience most (not all) of the Democrats and liberals make a great amount of talk about the environment, but don't shell out for electric bikes, lawn mowers, or especially cars. Where as those that I talked to who are conservative AND really believe the climate issues are real, as I said before, actually do something about it. Not always. But as a general rule. Let me reiterate, this is anecdotal evidence only.

As to the statistics? I think I'll go with Mr. Clemens on that one!

 

[cwerdna]

I was only sharing anecdotal evidence. The things that I have experienced, as I said. In my limited experience most (not all) of the Democrats and liberals make a great amount of talk about the environment, but don't shell out for electric bikes, lawn mowers, or especially cars.

I could believe that point and agree there are plenty of those. Talk is cheap.

Where as those that I talked to who are conservative AND really believe the climate issues are real, as I said before, actually do something about it. Not always. But as a general rule. Let me reiterate, this is anecdotal evidence only.

As to the statistics? I think I'll go with Mr. Clemens on that one!

I've not encountered many of those. The ones that I can gather are conservative tend to be against EVs, some of the point of "I will never own a electric car" (in their words).

Look at the charts at How Americans view electric vehicles and Most Americans Are Not Completely Sold on Electric Vehicles.

Back to the original point, even if you exclude party politics, Support for phasing out new gasoline vehicles by 2035 has decreased over the past 2 years was interesting. For US adults, oppose has grown from 51 to 59% and favor has gone from 47% to 40%.

 

[cwerdna]

Also, look at charts 5, 6 and 7 of What the data says about Americans’ views of climate change.

 

[David_Cary]

A model 3 can comfortably get 5 miles per hour plugged into a 120V charging. While charging is not 100% efficient, it isn't 80% either.
My 2015 S could get 4 miles per hour - so my 8 year old large performance car could get 50 miles in 12 hours.
So sure - some really inefficient cars won't hit 50 miles.
As far as catching up on weekends, sure you go places but hopefully aren't commuting to work. And if you are, hopefully you have some days off here and there.
And, most of the weekend time, you sleep at home. I would hope that most people aren't putting 50 miles on their car every weekend day.
And, if you do, then get a level 2 charger. You realize you are arguing that a 120V won't work in your heavy driving, colder than 90% of US and parking outside situation. That is what we call ... an edge case. So get a level 2.
How about this. I live in NC and nearly everyone near me who can afford a new car has a 2-3 garage, at least a 200 amp panel and it doesn't get that cold.
Rather depressing poll results.....

 

[cwerdna]

Back to "conservatives", I did listen to https://www.npr.org/2023/08/25/1195...debate-some-young-republicans-say-thats-a-win the other day. One can listen to the almost 4 minute audio story or read the article or transcript (https://www.npr.org/transcripts/1195566969).

 

[cwerdna]

Received an email pointing to The EV Adoption Gap Between States Is Growing which points to https://www.jdpower.com/business/resources/america-grows-increasingly-divided-ev-adoption.

I don't agree with their prediction that California new vehicle EV share will reach 94% by 2035. I don't even think it'll hit the required 80% by that point.

Also don't agree with "At a nationwide level, the EV Retail Share Forecast anticipates a baseline estimate of 70% EV market share by 2035."

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Received an email pointing to The EV Adoption Gap Between States Is Growing which points to https://www.jdpower.com/business/resources/america-grows-increasingly-divided-ev-adoption.

I don't agree with their prediction that California new vehicle EV share will reach 94% by 2035. I don't even think it'll hit the required 80% by that point.

Also don't agree with "At a nationwide level, the EV Retail Share Forecast anticipates a baseline estimate of 70% EV market share by 2035."

Year to year adoption rate comparison is a bit silly given the vehicle supply disruptions and stupid prices over the past few years. What we need to see at the moment is EV sales compared to a reasonable baseline year. Or even the peak year of 2019.

I don't see 2035 as that big a problem for the California new vehicle market. China shows where BEV cost is _really_ heading, and we're already now beginning to see moves happening with the medium and large-scale AC charging installations that will be needed to increase access to convenient charging. 12 years is a long time. 12 years ago 24kWh Leafs were the top-selling BEVs and the experience for owners was nothing like it is now for new BEV buyers.

 

[cwerdna]

Ford to double F-150 hybrid pickup production as EV sales growth slows

Keep this in mind about the F-series truck: Ford F-Series Remains America’s Best-Selling Truck for 46th Consecutive Year - MotorWeek.

 

[cwerdna]

Some Tesla Model Y Owners Return To Gas-Powered SUVs And Trucks: Report

Some Tesla Model Y owners return to buying gas cars, while Model S owners go for the Lucid Air or Mercedes-Benz EQS.

insideevs.com

 

[cwerdna]

Hope this isn't a repeat:
https://www.autonews.com/sales/evs-share-has-gone-flat-bustling-us-market is behind a paywall but there is a copy at https://archive.ph/DQ0eG from Aug 11, 2023:
"U.S. EV share goes flat at 7.1% through June as gas autos return
After two years of sharp growth, EV market share stayed flat from January to June, Experian data shows, and market leader Tesla isn't immune.
...
EVs' share of the market reached 7.1 percent in January with 87,708 new registrations out of 1.24 million light vehicles, Experian said. Through the first half of the year, that share was still at 7.1 percent with 546,651 new registrations out of 7.66 million total. In 2022, EV market share was 5.6 percent for the full year and 3.1 percent in 2021.

The slowdown in market-share growth across the first half of 2023 suggests a cooling of EV demand, analysts said, although sales will continue to set records as EV adoption improves, albeit at a slower pace.

"It seems like early-adopter demand has nearly been met, and the EV market will have to start targeting a more mainstream consumer — which is challenging given the price points of the vehicles available and the lack of charging infrastructure," said Jessica Caldwell, executive director of insights at Edmunds."

 

[kpanda17]

I’ve said it before, the IRA missed providing PSA public service announcements on EV education. Ford, GM and Tesla should be educating the advantages of EVs and what daily life is like.
This is a big miss.

Also, each should then educate about their EV models. Get people excited.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I’ve said it before, the IRA missed providing PSA public service announcements on EV education. Ford, GM and Tesla should be educating the advantages of EVs and what daily life is like.
This is a big miss.

Also, each should then educate about their EV models. Get people excited.

Education could help speed things up since it can contradict the lies that right wing media are telling.

But you have to get past the lies in the media anyway, and it's hard to get education to people if they're not listening.

The best way past the lies is through trusted people. EV sales are at record levels. More people have EVs and more people know people with EVs and they will share their stories and give people experience.

Besides, we need production growth, price decreases and better charging infrastructure for growth as well.

NEVI Part 1 is coming over the next 2 years, Part 4 of EA deployment, the joint venture of a number of manufacturers, whatever Walmart follows its announcement with, other companies like Circle K (Alimentation Couche Tard) and of course next year the Supercharger network will open up to other companies, with pretty much everybody except VAG having announced a switch to NACS, and adapters becoming available for those companies from Q2 2024 to Q1 2025.

For home and destination charging there are more companies working on larger-scale installations so other barriers are gradually going to be removed.

I volunteer at a NDEW event and I know education helps, but I don't think it'll be long until NDEW becomes redundant.

 

[kpanda17]

I recently have had a few conversations with non ev owners:

North east old school, “only hybrids can work, the EV battery will fail, need a backup”
Midwest, “there is no carbon issue, oil supplies will last forever, it’s all a lie, Corning and bio fuels are amazing”
West coast non progressive “you’re not taking my ICE monster truck away from me, it’s downright un American”

Wow, tough minds

 

[DrGriz]

Education could help speed things up since it can contradict the lies that right wing media are telling.

Not just the RW Media. The MSM takes every chance it can to highlight problems without context (i.e., reporting rare battery fires without even mentioning the far more common ICE car fires).

 

[cwerdna]

This is related to claims someone made here or another thread earlier of nobody/wanting ICEVs and their value going to 0.

Tesla, JLR, Hyundai, BMW among 10 Used Cars with Biggest Price Drops got surfaced to me today on Facebook, but it turns out it from Aug 4, 2023. Spots 1, 2 and 4 are occupied by Teslas. #3 was Leaf. 5 thru 7 were Land Rovers (I wouldn't ever want one of those overpriced guzzlers of dubious reliability.) 8 was an Ioniq Hybrid. 9 was a Jaguar E-Pace (never heard of it before, but yet another brand with dubious reliability). #10 was a BMW 5-series PHEV.

Since they mention iSeeCars, I found Electric Vehicle Prices Collapse Even As Overall Used Car Market Stabilizes - iSeeCars.com which has a table of the same vehicles. They also have a table "Top 10 Used Cars With the Greatest Year-over-Year Price Increases (June 2022 vs. June 2023)". All are ICEVs including some guzzlers like Mercedes SL-Class, Chevy Suburban and GMC Yukon.

FWIW, I started a similar poll over at https://www.tivocommunity.com/threa...tric-new-vehicles-exceed-50-in-the-us.592299/ (you need to have a free account to see the thread). The answers were quite different. I originally didn't let people change their vote and I think I didn't let them see the results before voting. But, someone wanted Never as a choice. So, I added it and let people change their vote. Here's where it stands, so far.

Keep in mind that TCF is US-centric with a few folks from Canada and a tiny # outside the US and Canada. My vote was 2040+ and I still stand by it.

Nobody voted 2027 or before. The largest bucket was 2040+ at 24.2%. 7.7% voted never.

 

[dakhlkt22]

I would want to see their methodology on EV pricing. ICE cars don't have tax credits like EVs do. So a brand new EV could potentially show a $7500 "depreciation" the day you walk off the lot but that's not actual price depreciation.

The weird thing about used EVs is that they have been selling at a premium. It's been cheaper for some time to buy a brand new EV than to buy the same model year used. People have been making money flipping their EVs and pocketing the tax credit. Not sure why this is. You would think people would just buy new while this price inefficiency exists.

 

[David_Cary]

A poll by random people on the internet is neither scientific nor predictive of course. But the rough center of the polls are 2030 for an EV forum vs 2035 for a Tivo forum. I suspect Tivo folks to be pretty young and cheap. I personally don't know anyone who uses Tivo currently and I know a lot of people who have EVs. I was a Media center user back in the day - that was cheap (free) that made it worthwhile.
Tivo had its hayday and presumably in decline. It was arguably a disruptive tech that didn't make it. Yet some are holding on to it. What are their reasons? - is it the cheapest - yes. Does it stick it to the man somewhat - yes. Either way - a skewed subset of the population. So are Tesla forum posters - no argument.
The forum members are both EV enthusiasts and way more knowledgable about EVs then average. So both biased and knowledgeable.
The depreciation argument is heavily influenced by Tesla's aggressive pricing and the tax credit. I recently looked at used EVs and wound up with a new one even with not qualifying for the TC. That is how high used EV prices are. I was open to Leafs, Ioniqs and Teslas. Others too but track record was important.

Will you even be able to buy a new ICE in 2040 in Carb states? I don't see why you would be able to. That is 17 years away - can you imagine what transformations are going to happen in the next 17 years? I can't.

 

[cwerdna]

A poll by random people on the internet is neither scientific nor predictive of course. But the rough center of the polls are 2030 for an EV forum vs 2035 for a Tivo forum. I suspect Tivo folks to be pretty young and cheap. I personally don't know anyone who uses Tivo currently and I know a lot of people who have EVs. I was a Media center user back in the day - that was cheap (free) that made it worthwhile.
Tivo had its hayday and presumably in decline. It was arguably a disruptive tech that didn't make it. Yet some are holding on to it. What are their reasons? - is it the cheapest - yes. Does it stick it to the man somewhat - yes. Either way - a skewed subset of the population. So are Tesla forum posters - no argument.
The forum members are both EV enthusiasts and way more knowledgable about EVs then average. So both biased and knowledgeable.

Re: TiVo folks being young and cheap, I'm trying to find the poll that inadvertently revealed the demographics of a a lot of TCF users. There weren't that many "young" people and for sure, there are some folks who have retired who are active on TCF.

TiVo (as a DVR) had its heyday and has been in decline for a very long time. There are many folks still active in the "happy hour" (off-topic) area of TCF who no longer have TiVos. I still use one, a Bolt+. I began with a Series 1 before software version 2.0 even came out. It looks like I've been a member of TCF since 2001. I began wtih TiVo in either 2000 or 2001.

Part of the point of posting the poll results from TCF are to include a MUCH larger % of people who do NOT have and never had any EV.

 

[SalisburySam]

Tivo had its hayday and presumably in decline. It was arguably a disruptive tech that didn't make it. Yet some are holding on to it. What are their reasons? - is it the cheapest - yes. Does it stick it to the man somewhat - yes.

TL;DR - We have very fond memories of how watching TV fundamentally changed for the better after acquiring our TiVo units. And that lasted a good long while. Now streaming has again yielded new, arguably better, ways to enjoy TV.

Aaahhh, thanks for that trip down memory lane. We got onto to the TiVo train when they first came out and used them for several years thereafter. For us, the motivators were two: time-shifted watching was the big one, and skipping through commercials was secondary. Being able to record and watch something at a time of our convenience was an amazing concept we lliked and quickly adapted to. Then, skipping annoying ads (sorry for the redundancy) became a colossal bonus. Almost immediately we got to the point at which we watched nothing live, and still do that today. And that included the two big must-watch-live events: the Super Bowl and Academy Awards, neither of which we particularly care about anymore.

Another disruptive technology, streaming, replaced TiVo. Still could time-shift, and certain subscriptions (Netflix) or subscription levels (Hulu) are ad-free replacing TiVo’s key benefits. We still have our TiVo units with their lifetime connectivity, but rarely use them anymore not because they didn’t make it (they really did and still do) but because the need isn’t there.

TiVo had mostly advantages for us but the key disadvantages were limited disk storage and limited data sources. No amount of embedded tuners (one of our TiVo units had four), nor onboard disk space could come close to competing with any streaming service where the concept of tuning in stations and recording large data loads just disappears.

Again, @David_Cary thanks for bringing this up.

And after this off-topic diversion, we go back to our regularly-scheduled programming.