Prediction, in Which Year Will New Electric Vehicle Sales Exceed 50% in the United States "Poll"

[SalisburySam]

This is why I urge anyone who wants an EV to get a Tesla, it's just a much better ownership experience. The other EV's will get better in time, but I am still constantly surprised how far behind they still are today.

While I would agree with your statement a few years ago, I do not do so today.

I’m constantly surprised by how far ahead my Ioniq5 is vs. my Model 3, at least in the areas I value: much faster charging, incredibly more comfortable, amazingly quieter, with a UI built for a human driver, a focus on what’s outside the car rather than inside down and to the right, auto wipers that just work well, same for auto high beams, AutoPark that does, a sensor suite of five camera, five radars, and full USS that appear to be effectively managed delivering for me a better set of low and high speed ADAS experiences, and most of all…wait for it…absolutely no, none, not ever, not even one phantom braking incident.

But yeah, the non-Tesla is so surprisingly far behind by not having vision-only/no radar/no USS, by not offering paid-for-years-ago-yet-undelivered-today vaporware, by not having AutoPark not work, by not having Dumb Summon not work, you get the point.

Yes, Tesla has accomplished several market-changing things, is delivering more EVs to a wider global audience than anyone else by far, has “solved” many EV-only issues such as charging on trips, excellent battery management, app controls, keyless/fobless actions, etc., but today it is a bit disingenuous to say others are “…far behind…”. They‘ve made great strides and either are well on their way or have caught up and for me in some ways surpassed. Now it is more a question of what do you like (e.g., minimalist interior design or not, to name one discriminator) as opposed to what do you give up. Good place to be for a consumer, no?

 

[kpanda17]

This is why I urge anyone who wants an EV to get a Tesla, it's just a much better ownership experience. The other EV's will get better in time, but I am still constantly surprised how far behind they still are today.

Using this one as rhe reply all as it is a positive post

Ok skipping the very bad charging performance of an old EV designed Chevy Bolt, for the current gen of EVs it takes 30-40 min for a deep L3 change 20-80%
Deep L3 charges take place during travel or if you have no home charger and have long trips daily
If you WFH and have no home charger, I’d imagine a once a week deep L3 charge
Please note that next gen EVs out or about to be released Ioniq 5, 6, M3 Highland, Cybertruck will probably be back to the lower L3 times of 20-30 minutes, again target 250-350kw chargers
Say away from these terrible 70kws

Comment about home charging and no dedicated circuits, they are not necessary for L1, 110v:
EV L1/2 home charging can be scheduled via rhe Tesla app, if it’s a shared 110c circuit with a during the day used load, lights, TV, etc, Just schedule the EV charge during late night when asleep and those loads are off
The slowest L1 110v 15amp charge is 3kw or 11 miles gained per hour, for example M3RWD and you need 80 miles of range daily, that will take 7.5 hours to L1 charge, schedule 11pm to 6am

Let’s not focus on rhe outliers
Tesla MY and soon M3 are the number one vehicles in rheir class due to a great ownership experience, rhe ecosystem, vehicle/charging/app/this forum/local ownership chapters/Powerwalls/etc

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Comment about home charging and no dedicated circuits, they are not necessary for L1, 110v:
EV L1/2 home charging can be scheduled via rhe Tesla app, if it’s a shared 110c circuit with a during the day used load, lights, TV, etc, Just schedule the EV charge during late night when asleep and those loads are off
The slowest L1 110v 15amp charge is 3kw or 11 miles gained per hour, for example M3RWD and you need 80 miles of range daily, that will take 7.5 hours to L1 charge, schedule 11pm to 6am

There should be no shared loads while charging. TV and some other devices may have a vampire draw you don't want.

The best solution in the case of limited service is a separate circuit and/or hardware that monitors other loads and restricts charging depending on the presence of other loads.

 

[kpanda17]

Guys, we’re talking 110v 15/12amps
If rhe person is not aware rhe breaker will pop
Same as if they plugged in a power tool or vacuum
No one says dedicated circuit for any of these devices

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Guys, we’re talking 110v 15/12amps
If rhe person is not aware rhe breaker will pop
Same as if they plugged in a power tool or vacuum
No one says dedicated circuit for any of these devices

Those devices aren't running for 13 hours close to the physical limits of the circuit.

The circuit doesn't have to be fully dedicated but you have to be able to dedicate it while in use, and you want it to be convenient to do so.

 

[cwerdna]

Ok skipping the very bad charging performance of an old EV designed Chevy Bolt, for the current gen of EVs it takes 30-40 min for a deep L3 change 20-80%

Bolt DC FC is slow by today's standard due to lack of improvement vs. when it was introduced in Dec 2016. But, I also pointed to recently introduced ones (e.g. "busy forks") that is also slow.

Deep L3 charges take place during travel or if you have no home charger and have long trips daily
If you WFH and have no home charger, I’d imagine a once a week deep L3 charge
Please note that next gen EVs out or about to be released Ioniq 5, 6, M3 Highland, Cybertruck will probably be back to the lower L3 times of 20-30 minutes, again target 250-350kw chargers

EA doesn't deploy 350 kW chargers everywhere. Many (most?) sites are 150 kW max. Even the 350 kW sites have a mix of 150 and 350 kW.

Ioniq 5 has been out for awhile. Ioniq 6 is out.

The slowest L1 110v 15amp charge is 3kw or 11 miles gained per hour,

No. 110 volts * 15 amps = 1,650 watts = 1.65 kW. We don't have 110 volts in the US, we have 120. You need 20 amp circuit and NEMA 5-20 outlet to do 15 amps sustained.

Default L1 120 volt EVSE that shipped with many BEVs and still ships with some (or when in 120 volt mode) is 12 amps * 120 volts via NEMA 5-15. 12 amp * 120 volts = 1,440 watts = 1.44 kW

I dislike "miles per hour" figures as it depends on the vehicle and depends on your efficiency. You don't buy gasoline in miles. You buy it in gallons or liters. Regardless, "11 miles per hour" is too high even by Tesla figures (Mobile Connector | Tesla Support). They quote for a Model 3, "6 miles per hour" for 5-15 and "7" for 5-20. If you drive at high speeds or it is below freezing with snow on the ground, those "miles" aren't worth as much in actual driving distance.

 

[kpanda17]

Let’s keep it simple for these new EV owners
Due to

37 miles a day EV use can be recharged daily with a existing 15 amp outlet
Schedule for after 11pm and keep other devices on that same circuit from running
M3 will take approx 4 hours of charging to get back 44 miles of range

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Let’s keep it simple for these new EV owners
Due to
View attachment 967510
37 miles a day EV use can be recharged daily with a existing 15 amp outlet
Schedule for after 11pm and keep other devices on that same circuit from running
M3 will take approx 4 hours of charging to get back 44 miles of range

You obviously didn't mean 4. 12A@120V is 1.44kW wall.

In cold, to get 37 miles per day in my Kona I would need over 12kW to the battery, and the charging itself would be less efficient. An EV with a heat pump would normally do better, assuming just regular winter cold, not a cold snap, but an inefficient, larger EV would be worse.

We also have winter storms that cause outages, so I would suggest that people have at least 2 commutes of range here and my suggestion is that people need enough power to able to charge more than enough overnight in winter so they aren't caught out. If somebody here has a 37 mile commute 12A@120V isn't enough. Unless they get a PHEV, of course.

And to be clear, if you are charging on a 15A circuit at 12A then "keep other devices from running" is literally not drawing any power at all. No standby, no wall warts etc. Everything completely off. There is zero spare capacity on the circuit.

On a 20A circuit there is another 4A allowed so there is more leeway, but you should also then really have a 20A outlet for the charger that makes it absolutely clear that the other loads are OK. Newer electrical code requires far more 120V circuits to be 20A, but also newer builds will be less likely to be constrained at the service.

 

[kpanda17]

in the usa and older construction homes, 20 amp outlets are not common, 15 amp outlets are
trying to make it easy for them to just use an available outlet
if the 15 amp circuits supplies the living room, typically garages are adjacent and have outlets, that room usually does not have wall warts
don't get me wrong, i have a 125amp sub panel driving two Gen 3s for 2x 48 amps of charging, but that's not what we are talking about here
for the newbie M3 owner going 37 miles or less per day, that 15 amp outlet will do fine for daily charging the vehicle overnight

 

[kpanda17]

I do think that 2027 will be the year that 50% or more of new cars sold will be electric. Remember my contention that the number of ice cars sold will drop dramatically as people realize they do want to go electric. Therefore we don't have to reach the full 7 million in order for 50% to be reached. Something like 5 will probably do. Maybe even four.

The battery factories are expected to produce greater than that capacity in 2027. The making of car bodies is well established and especially all the legacy makers both in the US and elsewhere are quite capable of that, as is Tesla and some of the other new startups. The ability to produce the EVS is, thus, not a constraint.

Pricing of EVS will go down as the cost of the batteries goes down and the production equipment is amortized. This happens naturally in all businesses, but especially high volume lithium ion battery production, which is only just now happening for the first time. Many very bright people are working on the problem and I think the price of batteries within 10 years will be half of what it is now. In the four years till I think EV sales will exceed ice sales? Probably down 20 to 30%. That appears to be enough to meet the monthly figure people expect to pay. And people don't really care about the actual price of the vehicle, just their monthly payment. An extremely small number of people actually pay cash for cars. Perhaps that's a commentary on our society as much as anything!

Prognostication is always fraught with difficulties, as we are exceptionally finite, and can't actually see the future. Still, it's fun to do these guesses! Now we simply have to wait and see what actually happens. Chances are none of us will be right.

unfortunately too early, I wish and expect more like 2032-37
current Tesla owners were the early adopters, now the non-EV owners are head scratchers, they are scrutinizing everything, have lots of questions
the IRA should have included PSA funding to get education out into the general population
the recent Electrified Expo in NY was not as heavily attend as it should have been
as Tesla is the leader, they should join forces in the USA with GM and Ford to educate, positive aspects of what life is like living with an EV
i have two progressive, tree hugging brothers and neither one has moved to EVs
I was the most conservative that moved first and I am trying to enlighten and education them...tough
my one brother recently dumped $2K into his 2014 Subaru and now he's asking questions, cheap bast...d

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

in the usa and older construction homes, 20 amp outlets are not common, 15 amp outlets are
trying to make it easy for them to just use an available outlet
if the 15 amp circuits supplies the living room, typically garages are adjacent and have outlets, that room usually does not have wall warts
don't get me wrong, i have a 125amp sub panel driving two Gen 3s for 2x 48 amps of charging, but that's not what we are talking about here
for the newbie M3 owner going 37 miles or less per day, that 15 amp outlet will do fine for daily charging the vehicle overnight

For a newbie M3 owner living somewhere that doesn't get cold, that isn't subject to outages, doesn't have TOU rate that makes charging in the early evening expensive, or who doesn't care about the cost of charging, and isn't going to return late in the evening, 12A@120V is fine for a 37 mile commute.

For other people, 12A@120V will work for some people with commutes shorter than that.

 

[cwerdna]

current Tesla owners were the early adopters, now the non-EV owners are head scratchers, they are scrutinizing everything, have lots of questions

Current? How early are we talking about? I wouldn't consider anyone w/a Tesla unless it was one of these bought new to be an early adopter: an original Roadster or the 1st one or two years of Model S. I'd say folks who bought or leased an '11 (1st began shipping Dec 2010) or '12 Leaf were pretty early adopters too.

But, folks who drove cars like eBay Watch: 1980 Comuta-Car--Retro Urban Electric Car were really early adopters. These folks were also pretty early adopters: drivers of GM1 EV1, Toyota RAV4 EV - Wikipedia, EV conversions before Dec 2010 and cars like ZAP Xebra - Wikipedia.

From Googling for site:mynissanleaf.com zap xebra and site:mynissanleaf.com comutacar brings up some folks who had those.

Let’s keep it simple for these new EV owners
Due to
View attachment 967510
37 miles a day EV use can be recharged daily with a existing 15 amp outlet
Schedule for after 11pm and keep other devices on that same circuit from running
M3 will take approx 4 hours of charging to get back 44 miles of range

Even Tesla doesn't quote figures like that. At Mobile Connector | Tesla Support, they quote 6 "miles of range per hour of charge" for NEMA 5-15, because again, you can only do 120 volts * 12 amps = 1,440 watts = 1.44 kW out of that.

I do think that 2027 will be the year that 50% or more of new cars sold will be electric. Remember my contention that the number of ice cars sold will drop dramatically as people realize they do want to go electric. Therefore we don't have to reach the full 7 million in order for 50% to be reached. Something like 5 will probably do. Maybe even four.

Seems pretty unrealistic by that time. Shrinkage of the US auto market to those numbers due to this supposed large % of Americans wanting EVs? Seems doubtful. If they need a car, they will get what's available.

That said, if we have an oil crisis like that of the two in the 70s, I will admit that could greatly curtail ICEV interest and increase interest in plug-in vehicles. A few pics, explanations and a video below:

Oil Shock of 1973–74

Explore the Federal Reserve's history

www.federalreservehistory.org

American Enterprise

American Enterprise chronicles the tumultuous interaction of capitalism and democracy that resulted in the continual remaking of American business—and American life.

americanhistory.si.edu

The Oil Crisis, 1979 | PBS LearningMedia

This archival news footage from Northeast Historic Film shows scenes of gas stations during the 1979 oil crisis. When operating, the gas stations faced long lines of cars that one customer suggested stretched about a half-mile long. When the stations were closed, signs in front reflected the...

ca.pbslearningmedia.org

I wasn't alive for the 1st one but have vague memories of the 2nd one (odd/even system and different colored flags as gas stations). Others who remember that have told many stories. I quoted some at Remembering the 1973 oil crisis. I've seen other footage from back in the day of the crazy gas lines and frustration.

 

[henderrj]

unfortunately too early, I wish and expect more like 2032-37
current Tesla owners were the early adopters, now the non-EV owners are head scratchers, they are scrutinizing everything, have lots of questions
the IRA should have included PSA funding to get education out into the general population
the recent Electrified Expo in NY was not as heavily attend as it should have been
as Tesla is the leader, they should join forces in the USA with GM and Ford to educate, positive aspects of what life is like living with an EV
i have two progressive, tree hugging brothers and neither one has moved to EVs
I was the most conservative that moved first and I am trying to enlighten and education them...tough
my one brother recently dumped $2K into his 2014 Subaru and now he's asking questions, cheap bast...d

Interesting that I have a brother on the far left of the political spectrum (big Bernie fan!) who has yet to go electric. And also for the same reason, he's just plain cheap. I have found that to be true when talking with people of all persuasions. The conservatives tend to actually take the environmental issue a little more seriously, they actually are willing to do something about it, if they're convinced it's real. But, I still contend, that is far from the major reason people go to ev's nowadays. And, I do think the early adopter thing is well past, as @cwerdna printed out.

It will be, I think, simply because the batteries will be available by then. In fact enough batteries to cover 90% of the production of all vehicles purchased in the US last year. Their cost we'll go down, and the general social acceptance of their purchase will rise to the point that the majority of Americans will choose an electric vehicle over a combustion engine vehicle.

I don't think that the political aspect has as great an effect as many people would like to think it does. The switchover would have happened anyway, simply because of the advantages. Maybe not quite as quickly but then, maybe it's slowed it down. There's an astonishing distrust of our government nowadays, leading people to do the opposite of what they feel they're being forced to do. In either direction, I think the legislation probably leads to more of a thought change, than it does a financial change for most people.

Then again, I've been wrong about more than a few things in the past! Let's watch the next few years and see how we do.

 

[henderrj]

@h2ofun - anything constructive to contribute?

 

[h2ofun]

@h2ofun - anything constructive to contribute?

Just because I do not support your party line, somehow I am negative. Yep, either your way or .....

 

[henderrj]

Just because I do not support your party line, somehow I am negative. Yep, either your way or .....

I'm not sure what party line I hold, and that wasn't the question really. Just trying to understand what part of what I said you disagreed with. Or was everything I said something you don't think is going to happen or true? Looking for a conversation.

 

[h2ofun]

I'm not sure what party line I hold, and that wasn't the question really. Just trying to understand what part of what I said you disagreed with. Or was everything I said something you don't think is going to happen or true? Looking for a conversation.

I was not directing at you. I do not believe EV's will ever be a main stream solution. Owning an EV now, the charging, even with a level 2 in my garage, is just a pain, takes too much time and energy to deal with. For the few folks that like this great, but the average person, just no way!!

Now, what will the future be? Maybe a technology we have never heard of. Was not that long ago no one ever heard of a cell phone, and look at us now.

Maybe solid state batteries? Bottom line, if something cannot be fueled quickly, IMO, if will NEVER be something the masses will use.
But I know the EV folks think I am 100% nuts. Time will tell. We are starting to read articles of EV sitting on car lots now, time will tell

Also, it just amazes me that folks say EV's will save the earth. The distruction that is caused getting battery material is just off the scale, but folks do not seem to want to talk about this. Or the pollution caused by the rapid wear of tires. Of the number of folks what will be hurt and killed getting hit by en EV since they are so much heavier. Or the folks that will get hurt or killed with battery fires. The list just keeps going on and on and on. But, lets ignore these realities.

 

[henderrj]

I was not directing at you. I do not believe EV's will ever be a main stream solution. Owning an EV now, the charging, even with a level 2 in my garage, is just a pain, takes too much time and energy to deal with. For the few folks that like this great, but the average person, just no way!!

Now, what will the future be? Maybe a technology we have never heard of. Was not that long ago no one ever heard of a cell phone, and look at us now.

Maybe solid state batteries? Bottom line, if something cannot be fueled quickly, IMO, if will NEVER be something the masses will use.
But I know the EV folks think I am 100% nuts. Time will tell. We are starting to read articles of EV sitting on car lots now, time will tell

Also, it just amazes me that folks say EV's will save the earth. The distruction that is caused getting battery material is just off the scale, but folks do not seem to want to talk about this. Or the pollution caused by the rapid wear of tires. Of the number of folks what will be hurt and killed getting hit by en EV since they are so much heavier. Or the folks that will get hurt or killed with battery fires. The list just keeps going on and on and on. But, lets ignore these realities.

Thank you for that clarification. I do understand where you're coming from. I think all of the problems in your last paragraph are easily explained. Don't most understand me, any kind of manufacturing is going to do damage to the earth. The question is overall better here or there. I happen to think that burning fuel is not such a great idea. But, the petroleum industry isn't going away in any event. Even vegan leather is actually a petroleum product! Those seats in Tesla's that can't be real leather now, are made from petroleum products. People seem to forget that part as well. We tend to be blind to the things we don't want to see, you are absolutely correct about that. Again thank you for being more specific here. I appreciate it.

 

[David_Cary]

While there are lots of things we don't agree on, we can all agree that manufacturing anything is environmentally damaging. Batteries are bad. Most analysis will agree with that but conclude that oil and carbon are worse.

So some people with significant environmental concerns will not buy an EV. Mostly they won't buy a new car. They are probably doing a solid by keeping something old running longer and trying to drive less.

The EPA said (sorry if you don't believe it) that the average car weight was 4,156 in a 2020 report. The Model Y weighs 4,400 pounds, the Model 3 weighs 4,065 pounds. Neither of these weights are for smaller battery or RWD variants. These are for biggest battery and AWD just to make the point clear. You can save a few hundred pounds by finding a Standard range or RWD version.

The Model 3 and Y represent 20X sales of the more portly S and X.

Please show me statistics on the number of battery fires. And use stats that include injury as well as denominators. And then find the same for ICE car fires.

Level 2 charging at home is far simpler than going to a gas station. That just really isn't a good argument for anyone.

Level 1 is even fine for the vast majority of people. Home 12 hours and get 50 miles - easy peasy. Doesn't mean you don't have 2 commutes in backup in case the power goes out - and for 99.9% of people in the US - power outages are not a weekly concern. Even if they were, you would catch up on weekends.

Sure, yep, if you park your car out in the cold and live in the 5% coldest area in the country, have a long commute - that might be a problem on level 1. Anyone with a really long commute - it is a problem. You can always find edge cases. The title of the thread is about 50% of new cars. It isn't about 95%.

The EVs sitting on dealer lots is about 1 thing in my opinion. The lack of aggressiveness in pricing in response to Tesla. Including the TC. The dealers are too stubborn to lower the prices. The leasing companies aren't helping by not giving the TC back. I was shopping recently and really tried hard not to get a Tesla but KIA dealers would not budge on pricing. We know at some point, the dealers don't want to sell EVs. These decisions are made locally by some inflexible people. Why would they want to lose money on a car that then doesn't come in for maintenance. It makes no sense. So the manufacturer/dealer model falls apart when Tesla slashes prices.

But if I was a dealer and I paid $45k to Kia for a car, it would be hard to sell it for $40k. And why, so I can buy more at $45k (or maybe $42k if Kia is trying)?

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Level 1 is even fine for the vast majority of people. Home 12 hours and get 50 miles - easy peasy. Doesn't mean you don't have 2 commutes in backup in case the power goes out - and for 99.9% of people in the US - power outages are not a weekly concern. Even if they were, you would catch up on weekends.

Sure, yep, if you park your car out in the cold and live in the 5% coldest area in the country, have a long commute - that might be a problem on level 1. Anyone with a really long commute - it is a problem. You can always find edge cases. The title of the thread is about 50% of new cars. It isn't about 95%.

You get to catch up on weekends, unless of course you actually use your car on weekends. I would never recommend anything to people which is going to leave them feeling restricted or make them park their car. You look at the regular driving and try to figure out what the year's shitty weather period is going to do, and recommend power that covers it.

12 hours of charging will _not_ get you 50 miles "easy peasy". 12 x 1.44 = 17.28.
50/17.28 =2.89mi/kWh and that's assuming you have 0 charging loss, which are you certainly not going to have in abundance if you're charging 12A@120V in shitty weather.
At 80% efficiency that's 3.62mi/kWh. There's a lot of EVs that won't be hitting that.