I never considered that stuff. I just want to be able to hold 8 folks and luggage and go at least 400 miles
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Prediction, in Which Year Will New Electric Vehicle Sales Exceed 50% in the United States "Poll"
- Thread starter SDRick
- Start date
Stuart Watson
Member
Are you assuming some kind of mechanical failure in the Corolla
Not at all ! I just think you “Mercans” don’t realise how much petrol costs outside the USA
How about the people who normally buy a €50K ice car ? (A BMW 320D with a few options??)
Will they consider an EV ?
Of course they will !!
Not at all ! I just think you “Mercans” don’t realise how much petrol costs outside the USA
How about the people who normally buy a €50K ice car ? (A BMW 320D with a few options??)
Will they consider an EV ?
Of course they will !!
Graham J
Member
I think you forgot what we're talking about. I'm saying EV adoption will track inversely with EV pricing.
Obviously there are people who will buy them at current prices - like, you know, us. But since a lot of people aren't buying $50k cars I think it's relevant to predict at what rate EV pricing will come down and correlate that with number of sales at various pricing brackets.
Might we hit the 50% sales mark when average EV pricing is half way between today's average EV price and the lowest price of ICE? Or maybe we'd need to be more than 50% of the way to that low mark because most people buy cars in the 20-30k range, for example.
Stuart Watson
Member
Doh
The Model Y is the worlds best selling car !
(This year by value , and 2023 by numbers ! )
Stuart Watson
Member
Cwerdna… you are embarrassing.
You don't take the time to think things through.
You don't take the time to think things through.
I plan to buy every 10 years, and I assume a future value of $0.
For EVs I just assume fuel will be no more expensive than an efficient hybrid.
I do consider the warranty, but they're pretty much all the same.
MontyFloyd
Member
What I am postulating is as has supply increases and familiarization and support of EV permeates the population the demand will go up, which will trigger more production.
This becomes a sliding target to hit.
Supply is also constrained by battery production, from what I read is barely able to keep up with demand, but production is rapidly accelerating.
IOW, too unpredictable right now for me to put a date down. Darts are better predictor.
MontyFloyd
Member
Mainly because if someone wants an BEV, the options are very limited and generally inferior.Doh
The Model Y is the worlds best selling car !
(This year by value , and 2023 by numbers ! )
As a company, Tesla has a ways to go, but will be accelerating like a Plaid.
Terminator857
Active Member
Unless we start opening up more mining for the minerals that will be required we will be relying on China even more than we already do. Whether it's Oil or Precious Metals we need more mining in the U.S.
It is difficult to go green with electric cars and not increase mining in the US. If I understand correctly expanded rebates will only available if a large portion of the battery components are derived domestically. That in and of itself would stimulate domestic mining (but also disqualify about 70% of current electric brands from rebates).
They have to be from the USA or any country with a free trade agreement with the USA.
And there's the North American manufacturing, so it's trying to move as much of the supply chain as possible from China to Mexico.
MontyFloyd
Member
Hear that stampede?
Mining companies running back to US after the 1980's incentivized outward migration.
voyager
Active Member
In the mean time, Biden actually needs higher gas prices to lure Americans into buying an EV,
also to pay for the EV tax credits and to get rid of the big gas guzzling trucks and SUVs.
also to pay for the EV tax credits and to get rid of the big gas guzzling trucks and SUVs.
MontyFloyd
Member
No.
We are years from even thinking that, mainly due to too small mfg capacity for EV.
Perhaps in 5 years, if all goes well.
Agree. Nobody needs to be lured into buying EVs right now. All capacity is more than spoken for.
SalisburySam
Active Member
Exactly. And we’re back to availability again and it isn’t looking good for the next two years at least. After test driving an Audi Q4 e-tron yesterday I learned the dealer is allocated exactly 3 of them, one each month for the next quarter after which they can sell their one demo car, so 4 total for 90 days. I don’t know if that’s typical, but even that level of availability is higher than the Ioniq5 Limited, which I’ll buy immediately when I can find one that is available (and without the in-your-face huge additional dealer markup or useless add-ons…I’ll take “Nitrogen-Filled Tires” for $500 Alex).
FastEddieB
Member
FWIW, you can no longer even order a Tesla Model 3 LR. Website just says “Available in 2023”.
Anyone rethinking their timeline given California's 2035 gas powered ban which is likely to be considered by at least 12 more states?
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Nope. Supply constraints are the problem, especially given that major European markets are going even faster.
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