Prediction, in Which Year Will New Electric Vehicle Sales Exceed 50% in the United States "Poll"

[UkNorthampton]

@David_Cary ​

Never heard of Stellantis but knew that group didn't have any EVs.
Note - they have 16% of US car dealerships. Just this one backward looking company ensures that only 84% of dealerships could have an EV if they wanted.

Correct for USA so far. RAM & Jeep EVs might be first new EVs for Stellantis in USA

Elsewhere, they sell loads of EVs in Europe - Fredtrek (beware the FUD) - Stellantis says it’s ready for North American EV transformation after EU success, starting with Ram

The Fiat New 500 was Italy’s #1 selling EV, while the Peugeot e-208 claimed the top spot in France. Stellantis now has 23 BEVs on the market, with the portfolio expected to double by the end of 2024

Ram has already revealed its first electric truck, the Ram 1500 REV pickup. After opening reservations earlier this month, Ram closed reservations after five days, saying it has reached max capacity.

The all-electric Ram 1500 REV will arrive in the fourth quarter of 2024, according to Stellantis.

Jeep is another Stellantis brand in the midst of an electric transformation after revealing all electric Recon and Wagoneer “S” models, which will be opened for reservations in North America this year.

Tavares says, “We now have the technology, the products, the raw materials, and full battery ecosystem” to lead its North American EV rollout.

Usually on same platform as ICE versions eg 26 listed as available now in UK (models/trims), 7 more announced as coming

EV Database

A comprehensive overview of all electric vehicles in the UK. Search and compare by range, make, model and price.

ev-database.org

January- March 2023 - Europe: Plug-In Car Sales Accelerated In March 2023
Top plug-in automotive groups (share year-to-date):

• Volkswagen Group - 19.1% share (Volkswagen brand at 7.9%)
• Tesla - 14.2%
• Stellantis - 13.7%
• BMW Group - 9.0% share (BMW brand at 7.4%)
• Geely–Volvo - 8.9%
• Mercedes-Benz Group (Mercedes-Benz brand at 7.6%)

Stellantis brands:- Stellantis - Wikipedia

Brands​

The active brand portfolio of Stellantis as of 2022 is shown below.[46] This list does not contain any discontinued brands owned by the company which have been placed into dormancy either directly or by its predecessor organisations.

Stellantis brands by country of origin

Origin	Brand	Established	Brand CEO
France	Citroën	1919	Thierry Koskas
France	DS Automobiles[note 1]	2014	Béatrice Foucher
France	Peugeot	1810	Linda Jackson
Germany	Opel	1862	Uwe Hochgeschurtz
Italy	Abarth	1949	Olivier François
Italy	Alfa Romeo	1910	Jean-Philippe Imparato
Italy	Fiat	1899	Olivier François
Italy	Fiat Professional	2007	Lorenzo Sistino
Italy	Lancia	1906	Luca Napolitano
Italy	Maserati	1914	Davide Grasso
United Kingdom	Vauxhall	1857 [48]	Uwe Hochgeschurtz
United States	Chrysler	1925	Christine Feuell[47]
United States	Dodge	1914	Timothy Kuniskis
United States	Jeep	1943	Christian Meunier
United States	Mopar	1937	Pietro Gorlier
United States	Ram[note 2]	2010	Michael Koval

Notes

• Spun off from Citroën brand

Spun off from Dodge brand

 

[cwerdna]

Never heard of Stellantis but knew that group didn't have any EVs.

Click on Brands at Official Global Website | Stellantis. They were the result of the combo of FCA (Fiat Chrysler Automobiles) and PSA Groupe that had brands like Peugeot, Citroen, etc.. PSA Groupe bought GM's European operations: General Motors completes sale of long-languishing European division.

Stellantis Delivers Record Full Year 2022 Results; Global BEV Sales Up 41%. Progressing Fast on Dare Forward 2030 Execution claims:

Stellantis’ electrification push accelerated with a 41% increase in global battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales year-over-year, to 288,000 vehicles in 2022. With 23 BEVs now in market, the BEV portfolio will more than double to 47 by the end of 2024, supporting the target to have more than 75 BEVs globally and global BEV sales of 5 million by 2030. Notably the Jeep® brand revealed the first phase of its BEV offensive with the launch of Jeep Avenger, the first-ever fully electric Jeep SUV and now the European Car of the Year 2023. It also premiered the all-electric Jeep Recon and Wagoneer “S”, both intended for the North American and other major global markets. The Ram brand followed, unveiling earlier this month its highly anticipated all-new, allelectric Ram 1500 REV production version that will be available in Q4 2024.

Stellantis is No. 1 in EU30 Commercial Vehicles BEV sales and No. 2 in EU30 for overall BEV sales with the Fiat New 500 as the No. 1 selling BEV in Italy and the Peugeot e-208 No. 1 in France. The Company is positioned as No. 1 in the U.S. for plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) sales, with the Jeep Wrangler 4xe as the No. 1 selling PHEV in both the U.S. and Canada.

The Company confirmed locations for five gigafactories (three in Europe and two in North America), with Automotive Cells Company, Samsung SDI and LG Energy Solution. As vertical integration of raw materials continues to be a focus, separate agreements were signed with Vulcan Energy, Controlled Thermal Resources, Alliance Nickel Limited (formerly GME Resources Limited), Element 25 and Terrafame.

 

[cwerdna]

Originally, there was an attempt at a FCA and Renault merger (memory foggy on details) but that fell through then the above happened.

 

[SalisburySam]

Never heard of Stellantis but knew that group didn't have any EVs.
Note - they have 16% of US car dealerships. Just this one backward looking company ensures that only 84% of dealerships could have an EV if they wanted.

I still don't know. 1000 dealerships (6% of total) can sell 5 million cars easy which with declining sales could be 50%.
Telsa apparently sold 500k cars from 160 stores. I suspect that can double pretty easily - 2025 - with maybe a modest 20% increase in store count. So 1M cars from 200 stores. Fits with 1000 dealerships selling 5M cars.

There is a ton of dead weight to go away - like 10,000 dealerships. So maybe we shouldn't expect 50% of current dealerships to ever sell EVs?

We have 1 Tesla store in my metro and 4? BMW dealerships. Necessary because of silly things like oil changes. Not needed with EVs (obviously). I am 95% sure that Tesla sells more cars in my area than BMW does. But there are more legacy BMW's that need service. For now....

As others have pointed out, this is the situation for the US, not necessarily outside the US.

I agree there is a relationship between number of dealers and number of cars sold, but doubt that it is the same relationship for Tesla. New ICE vehicles must be bought from a dealer, new Teslas must be bought from Tesla almost without regard to display locations. The Tesla display locations do offer things like test drives so you could argue more locations equates to more sales, but that’s not a given like it is for ICE dealers.

 

[cwerdna]

In many/most (?) parts of the US, there are state franchise laws prohibiting automakers from owning dealers and/or selling direct to consumers. Google for tesla franchise laws for the gory details. In some cases, the Tesla stores/showrooms are just that and you can't even order a car thru them. They can direct you to Tesla's web site to order.

And, as many know, there are some other blocking states (accompanied some other workarounds at Tesla's Found a Way Around Direct Sales Bans by Putting Dealerships on Tribal Lands). For places where Tesla can't even have a showroom or sell directly to customers, that places quite a barrier.

There are folks who will not buy/lease a new car w/o being able to test drive, w/o the presence of a dealer(s), knowing they can get service, etc. Or, they might be unwilling jump thru hoops.

 

[David_Cary]

New Mexico, Alabama, and South Carolina ban service centers. 12 million people or 4% of US. A relatively poor 4% so less likely to be buying Teslas.

You can say that Texas doesn't allow direct sales but they have 22 stores (oops galleries). There are articles saying that my state of NC doesn't allow sales but there are 2 stores and opening a third. And I have purchased 2 Teslas from these stores. We have had a store in my area since at least 2013. So these imagined barriers are exaggerated and certainly not "most" of the country.

Connecticut maybe a unique issue but the majority of moneyed population is less than an hour to New York.

There are a lot of stupid crony laws in a number of states. But there are not really that many barriers to buying a Tesla anymore.

Sure - there is not the same relationship to dealers for legacy manufacturers as Telsa. But part of that is the ICE paradigm. The dealers will try hard to hold on to that but it is not just because Tesla is Tesla, it is partly because Tesla sells EVs. So as more EVs are sold, the relationship to dealers will change. But, totally agree, that people will take a generation to change. And mostly old people buy new cars. I still see people my age taking an out of warranty car to a dealer for brake work. And then an older person going there for a flat tire. Crazy.

My Leaf went to the dealer 1 time in the 6 years I owned it. Model 3 - 1 time in 4 years (roof glass). Model S - 5 in 8 years (2 warranty, one alignment after collision (shop's choice not mine), MCU upgrade and battery heater)

 

[cwerdna]

https://www.axios.com/2023/07/10/unsold-electric-cars-are-piling-up-on-dealer-lots

Ford Dealers Can’t Move All The Mustang Mach-Es They Have For Sale

Thousands of Mach-Es are sitting on dealer lots across the country, waiting for buyers.

jalopnik.com

 

[SDRick]

There will always be ups and downs in the automobile space. Curious, what year did you select in the poll?

 

[cwerdna]

I answered after 2040. I still stand by it.

 

[SDRick]

The way prices are dropping, I don't think it'll take till 2040 but my crystal ball has been wrong (once or twice. ha ha).

I found it interesting that 20% of the poll takers chose 2027 or earlier for a 50% adoption. That's pretty optimistic and just about impossible.

 

[cwerdna]

The way prices are dropping, I don't think it'll take till 2040 but my crystal ball has been wrong (once or twice. ha ha).

I found it interesting that 20% of the poll takers chose 2027 or earlier for a 50% adoption. That's pretty optimistic and just about impossible.

Prices dropping? I had to look since new car prices in the US are still pretty terrible and seemingly on an upward trend.

So, Kelley Blue Book Analysis: New-Vehicle Transaction Prices in June Post Smallest Annual Gain in Nearly 4 Years - Cox Automotive Inc. does claim
"New Electric Vehicle Prices Down 20% From One Year Ago

EV prices continue to fall, again led by market leader Tesla. In June, the average EV ATP was $53,438, down from a revised $54,528 in May and down from more than $61,000 in January. Incentives for EVs in June were 7.1% of ATP, behind only luxury vehicles. EV ATPs are down nearly 20% from their recent peak of $66,390 in June 2022. The price declines in the EV segment follow inventory increases experienced by some automakers in 2023. Overall, as measured by days’ supply, the EV category is well above the overall industry. At the end of June, the EV segment days’ supply was 103 days, while industry days’ supply stood at 53.

“The steep drop in average EV prices this year, led by Tesla price cuts, has been a key driver of overall, industry-wide price moderation,” added Krebs. “A year ago, the average EV price was above the average luxury vehicle price. Today, as inventory and availability build, EV prices are moving closer to the industry average.”"

But there's also these:
With just 8% of new vehicles costing under $30,000, 'it’s the least affordable car market in modern history,' expert says

As auto prices soar, more buyers take out 6½- and 7-year loans

Experian says more than a third of all new vehicles bought in the fourth quarter were financed with loans that have terms of six or more years.

www.cnbc.com

Share of new car buyers with a monthly payment of more than $1,000 hits record high

High prices and rising interest rates are causing an affordability problem for many car shoppers.

www.cnbc.com

How many cheap new BEVs are available in the US now w/200+ mile EPA range? Bolt is being discontinued by year end. Cheaper BEVs like Leaf, Kona EV and Niro EV lost their Federal tax credits.

I got hosed ever since the income cap became effective for the Federal tax credit, as my income is way too high, so I cannot get it when buying any new or used EV. I could take advantage of the commercial lease loophole but then some automakers (e.g. Tesla and Nissan EVs) don't let you buy out leases at the end. And, it also depends on the automaker/leasing arm passing along the savings from the $7500 they receive.

 

[cwerdna]

I found it interesting that 20% of the poll takers chose 2027 or earlier for a 50% adoption. That's pretty optimistic and just about impossible.

Yeah, it's ~18.6%. That's comical.

Would be interesting if some of those folks would speak up and say why. They may be unaware of the size of the US new automobile market in a calendar year, actual numbers and percentages of pure BEVs sold in the US out of those + all the other competition and events going on in the world (e.g. Europe's and China's push to BEVs, the size of the Chinese auto market, how the US isn't Norway, etc.)

 

[David_Cary]

I am a post 2027 person myself but I can certainly speak to some of the optimism. If you haven't heard of the S curve adoption trend, it is pretty simple and I apologize if you find it insulting.

There is always a slow uptick but then once inflection point is hit, the changes come faster than anyone anticipates. Cell phone adoption ran this way. The predictions from CEOs and many other people who should have market knowledge were way behind.

As far as size, everyone knows that because Google knows it - 13.75M in 2022. 5.6% EVs - again Google. Europe is more like 12% and China probably 20% (didn't ask Google). The Chinese market is around 25M.

Not sure what any of these numbers mean to suggest that 50% will take so long. Why not just look at historical data with an S curve in mind. In fact, they make it seem more likely. I went and checked the math and if the US bought as many EVs as China in Q1, it would be about 50% of auto sales. The market is twice our size and they had 24% EV market share. So the manufacturing capability is practically here. Yes - China and Europe will grow and they are already further along the S curve than we are. So there maybe some limits but none of this is impossible.

US BEV sales
2019 2%
2020 2.4%
2021 3%
2022 5.6%
2023 Q1 7.1%

Just about a tripling in 3 years. If you stay with that, 2025 would be 16% of sales and 2028 would be about 50%.
You could also say a greater than doubling in 2 years - 2021 to Q1 2023. It really isn't hard to get to 50% in 2027. 2025 is hard but not impossible.

You can argue that the growth will be linear but that isn't likely. At some point, people think of cars as long term investments. Spending $50k for something that runs on gas in 2023 seems pretty crazy to me but certainly not to everyone. They will come around as they see the writing on the wall. We have lived through a bit of this in the last 10 years and the trend seems to be continuing/accelerating as expected. We aren't too far from ICE vehicles resale looking terrible and that will be the death knell.

Yes - there are a lot of cars at the dealers now. So many new (and similar) models coming to market at once. I can't find a Mach-E locally so it isn't geographically uniform. There are plenty of EV5s and EV6s which I am going to drive today. My Model S is likely to be totaled (have estimate, insurance deciding this week) and I won't buy another Tesla. I might fix it myself from salvage but I certainly want to see what my options are.

New car sales does not equal cars on the road. Everyone understands that.

Honestly 2040 is seemingly insane also. You think we will be more than 15 years behind China? Wow. Or do you not think China will hit it in 2025? Seems like they will to me. 2028 to 2030 seems about right to me. I can see 2035 but 2040 - that is as unlikely as 2025.

 

[petit_bateau]

UK now at 25%

Plug-in electric car registrations in the UK – June 2023​

• BEVs: 31,700 (up 39%) and 17.9% market share
• PHEVs: 12,770 (up 66%) and 7.2% market share
• Total: 44,470 (up 46%) and 25.1% market share

New plug-in car registrations year-to-date:

• BEVs: 152,965 (up 33%) and 16.1% market share
• PHEVs: 62,155 (up 21%) and 6.5% market share
• Total: 215,120 (up 29%) and 22.7% market share

UK: Plug-In Car Sales Reached 25% Market Share In June 2023

In June, 44,470 new plug-in cars were registered in the UK (46% more than a year ago), which represents about 25.1% of the total volume.

insideevs.com

Interestingly this is despite a top-10 showing from any BEV except the Tesla Y. There is a desperate need for the 3 to be slightly cheaper (and feature a hatchback), and/or for the 2/Y to reach market to suit some important segments.

And as a reminder this (below) is where the global situation was at end-2022, during which UK was at 23% EV sales, so it suggests UK is about 8% ahead of the world average of 14%. To an extent what is interesting is that this may reflect a slowdown in the pace of adoption, though that may be more to do with UK-specific factors (UK is having a worse-than-everyone-else economic situation due to the bullet-meet-head stupidity of Brexit). I'm sure Norway has exited the right hand end of the graph by now.

And remember that an ICE manufacturing line running much below 80% normal capacity is likely uneconomic ......

(Mind you same holds true for EV production - see VW for further details !)

By comparison USA is lagging the global average with 7% BEV Q1 vs 5% last year Q1

BEV registrations in January-March 2023:

• Tesla (60% BEVs): 155,360 (up 37%)
• Non-Tesla (40% BEVs): 102,147 (up about 128% from roughly 45,000)
• Total: 257,507 (up 63%) and 7% market share (up from 4.6% in Q1 2022)

US: All-Electric Car Sales Increased In Q1 2023: 257,000 Registrations

All-electric car sales in the United States continue to increase, noticeably outpacing the general car market. In Q1 2023, market share hit 7%.

insideevs.com

Since Cox also gives 7% for EV does that mean PHEV is now near-dead in USA, and that the only thing that matters is now BEV (that would fit my modelling, but I've not delved into recent data) ?

Another Record Broken: Q1 Electric Vehicle Sales Surpass 250,000, as EV Market Share in the U.S. Jumps to 7.2% of Total Sales - Cox Automotive Inc.

Cox Automotive publishes a quarterly Kelley Blue Book new-vehicle sales report enumerating electric vehicle sales.

www.coxautoinc.com

 

[Mengy]

I am a post 2027 person myself but I can certainly speak to some of the optimism. If you haven't heard of the S curve adoption trend, it is pretty simple and I apologize if you find it insulting.

There is always a slow uptick but then once inflection point is hit, the changes come faster than anyone anticipates. Cell phone adoption ran this way. The predictions from CEOs and many other people who should have market knowledge were way behind.

As far as size, everyone knows that because Google knows it - 13.75M in 2022. 5.6% EVs - again Google. Europe is more like 12% and China probably 20% (didn't ask Google). The Chinese market is around 25M.

Not sure what any of these numbers mean to suggest that 50% will take so long. Why not just look at historical data with an S curve in mind. In fact, they make it seem more likely. I went and checked the math and if the US bought as many EVs as China in Q1, it would be about 50% of auto sales. The market is twice our size and they had 24% EV market share. So the manufacturing capability is practically here. Yes - China and Europe will grow and they are already further along the S curve than we are. So there maybe some limits but none of this is impossible.

US BEV sales
2019 2%
2020 2.4%
2021 3%
2022 5.6%
2023 Q1 7.1%

Just about a tripling in 3 years. If you stay with that, 2025 would be 16% of sales and 2028 would be about 50%.
You could also say a greater than doubling in 2 years - 2021 to Q1 2023. It really isn't hard to get to 50% in 2027. 2025 is hard but not impossible.

You can argue that the growth will be linear but that isn't likely. At some point, people think of cars as long term investments. Spending $50k for something that runs on gas in 2023 seems pretty crazy to me but certainly not to everyone. They will come around as they see the writing on the wall. We have lived through a bit of this in the last 10 years and the trend seems to be continuing/accelerating as expected. We aren't too far from ICE vehicles resale looking terrible and that will be the death knell.

Yes - there are a lot of cars at the dealers now. So many new (and similar) models coming to market at once. I can't find a Mach-E locally so it isn't geographically uniform. There are plenty of EV5s and EV6s which I am going to drive today. My Model S is likely to be totaled (have estimate, insurance deciding this week) and I won't buy another Tesla. I might fix it myself from salvage but I certainly want to see what my options are.

New car sales does not equal cars on the road. Everyone understands that.

Honestly 2040 is seemingly insane also. You think we will be more than 15 years behind China? Wow. Or do you not think China will hit it in 2025? Seems like they will to me. 2028 to 2030 seems about right to me. I can see 2035 but 2040 - that is as unlikely as 2025.

Exactly this. The data shows a very clear trend, and that would point to 50% happening well before 2030. 2027 might be unlikely, but 2028-2029 appears to be VERY likely.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

UK now at 25%

Plug-in electric car registrations in the UK – June 2023​

• BEVs: 31,700 (up 39%) and 17.9% market share
• PHEVs: 12,770 (up 66%) and 7.2% market share
• Total: 44,470 (up 46%) and 25.1% market share

New plug-in car registrations year-to-date:

• BEVs: 152,965 (up 33%) and 16.1% market share
• PHEVs: 62,155 (up 21%) and 6.5% market share
• Total: 215,120 (up 29%) and 22.7% market share

UK: Plug-In Car Sales Reached 25% Market Share In June 2023

In June, 44,470 new plug-in cars were registered in the UK (46% more than a year ago), which represents about 25.1% of the total volume.

insideevs.com

Interestingly this is despite a top-10 showing from any BEV except the Tesla Y. There is a desperate need for the 3 to be slightly cheaper (and feature a hatchback), and/or for the 2/Y to reach market to suit some important segments.

View attachment 955843

And as a reminder this (below) is where the global situation was at end-2022, during which UK was at 23% EV sales, so it suggests UK is about 8% ahead of the world average of 14%. To an extent what is interesting is that this may reflect a slowdown in the pace of adoption, though that may be more to do with UK-specific factors (UK is having a worse-than-everyone-else economic situation due to the bullet-meet-head stupidity of Brexit). I'm sure Norway has exited the right hand end of the graph by now.

View attachment 955845

And remember that an ICE manufacturing line running much below 80% normal capacity is likely uneconomic ......

(Mind you same holds true for EV production - see VW for further details !)

By comparison USA is lagging the global average with 7% BEV Q1 vs 5% last year Q1

BEV registrations in January-March 2023:

• Tesla (60% BEVs): 155,360 (up 37%)
• Non-Tesla (40% BEVs): 102,147 (up about 128% from roughly 45,000)
• Total: 257,507 (up 63%) and 7% market share (up from 4.6% in Q1 2022)

US: All-Electric Car Sales Increased In Q1 2023: 257,000 Registrations

All-electric car sales in the United States continue to increase, noticeably outpacing the general car market. In Q1 2023, market share hit 7%.

insideevs.com

Since Cox also gives 7% for EV does that mean PHEV is now near-dead in USA, and that the only thing that matters is now BEV (that would fit my modelling, but I've not delved into recent data) ?

Another Record Broken: Q1 Electric Vehicle Sales Surpass 250,000, as EV Market Share in the U.S. Jumps to 7.2% of Total Sales - Cox Automotive Inc.

Cox Automotive publishes a quarterly Kelley Blue Book new-vehicle sales report enumerating electric vehicle sales.

www.coxautoinc.com

If PHEV is near-dead, it's because of CARB's approach. TZEV credits are allowed to be a decreasing percentage of the credits, and from 2026, 20% of the sales.

Model Year	Total ZEV Percent Requirement	TZEVs
2022	14.5%	4.5%
2023	17.0%	5.0%
2024	19.5%	5.5%
2025	22.0%	6.0%

Given the CARB rules and the trends manufacturers aren't going to see PHEV either as a good compliance or long-term strategy.

Toyota is likely to PHEV more of its HEV lineup because it can do so relatively easily. It has the RAV4 Prime and Prius Prime and the C-HR Prime is coming. My view is that with 2026's tougher rules pending, Toyota beefed up its PHEV offerings so they can get a full credit, as they'll all have 39+ miles of EPA range, and with it they also have better motor performance, with all-electric 0-60 around 9 seconds.

 

[petit_bateau]

If PHEV is near-dead, it's because of CARB's approach. TZEV credits are allowed to be a decreasing percentage of the credits, and from 2026, 20% of the sales.

Model Year	Total ZEV Percent Requirement	TZEVs
2022	14.5%	4.5%
2023	17.0%	5.0%
2024	19.5%	5.5%
2025	22.0%	6.0%

Given the CARB rules and the trends manufacturers aren't going to see PHEV either as a good compliance or long-term strategy.

Toyota is likely to PHEV more of its HEV lineup because it can do so relatively easily. It has the RAV4 Prime and Prius Prime and the C-HR Prime is coming. My view is that with 2026's tougher rules pending, Toyota beefed up its PHEV offerings so they can get a full credit, as they'll all have 39+ miles of EPA range, and with it they also have better motor performance, with all-electric 0-60 around 9 seconds.

PHEV is near-dead as a strategy on a global basis, so it cannot just be a CARB thing.

My opinion is that Tesla has allowed legislators world-wide to face down auto industry's promotion of PHEV as being the only possible pathway, and separately (and far more importantly) consumers have made their own minds up. We all know the reality that an awful lot of PHEV never get plugged in, so I will not be sad.

I'm hopeful that global EV market share might hit 21% for 2023 and 32% for 2024. However there is a caveat that Covid flattered EV production in % terms and to the extent that there is a post-Covid rebound it is somewhat ICE-biased. As a result my S-curve fit might be pulled off by the Covid flattery, meaning it is over-optimistic by a couple of years. As the 2023 data comes in it will be interesting to see how significant this is, and as a result how off I am.

Mind you I ran the S-curve model three different ways : % cars; #cars, and GWh and they all came out pretty much the same. The EV% forecast is the most optimistic and the EV# is the least optimistic with about a 5% gap between them in 2023. So it is possible I am fussing too much in the detail. Standing back EV added 5.5% market share last year so just doing that for a second year would bring EV to 19% market share for 2023.

EV = BEV + PHEV

 

[DrGriz]

Over 52 percent of automobiles purchased in 2021 were SUVs, more than two to one over sedans. The first four months of 2022 showed that 72.9 percent of all car purchased were either SUVs or pickups.

I would remind everyone that this poll is about the US, and people don't purchase the same type of personal vehicle here as in much of the rest of the world.
The "S curve" should be viewing the US adoption rate with this in mind. Where are we in terms of EV SUV and pickup sales? I would guess way behind.

Most of the available and selling EVs are sedan types. Pickups are sitting on dealer lots unsold. If 100% of sales of passenger cars like sedans and hatchbacks were EVs, it would only be 33% of the total market for passenger vehicles in the US!

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I would remind everyone that this poll is about the US, and people don't purchase the same type of personal vehicle here as in much of the rest of the world.
The "S curve" should be viewing the US adoption rate with this in mind. Where are we in terms of EV SUV and pickup sales? I would guess way behind.

Most of the available and selling EVs are sedan types. Pickups are sitting on dealer lots unsold. If 100% of sales of passenger cars like sedans and hatchbacks were EVs, it would only be 33% of the total market for passenger vehicles in the US!

Most available and selling EVs are now crossovers, not sedans.
45% of US light vehicle sales are crossovers.

 

[h2ofun]

So why are there so many Ford mustang ev's on lots? Folks are nuts if they think EV's, once the wealthy early adopters buy, are
going to be bought by low income folks, just nuts