Prediction: Model X price will be reduced to $78K in January 2024

[chrsgerhart]

For as little as $2,000 euro , you can order this from a seller in Germany to use on those trips

Center Lounge - GS-Design - Interior für Deinen Tesla

gs-design.eu

Ugh that is so awesome!!! I need it but damn I don't want to pay shipping costs lol

 

[Fairchild]

We can say demand is outpacing supply when new inventories are empty or even trending down. As of today, Model X inventory is trending up with all the current demand levers. The recent sales were from pent-up demand from people who already had made purhcase decision but didn't have the finances, or wanted to capture the FSD transfer.

The competition is already slowing down the purchases (judging form the inventory development), as people are holding off their purchase decisions to next year, to see what's out there. The competition is good enough to postpone decision. Anyways, time will tell.

Using inventory as a measure is not a realistic comparison. If the cost cuts are stimulating new purchases, which they seriously are, think of how many people would order a new X with the tax credit, instead of ordering a new X for over $80k. Of course, the inventory would be stagnant. NONE of the inventory vehicles are eligible for the tax credit. NONE. Essentially, they are sitting there being overpriced. These inventories will take a long time to deplete.

Competition has little if any effect. I have driven all of them. IMHO, there is no competition, when you compare Auto-pilot, FSD, charging, and lack of a need for service. My Model YP has 27K miles and it hasn't ever seen the Tesla service shop. My patient today has a Mercedes EQS, which he has had for several months. He had a warning light and now his vehicle is sitting on the lot until Oct 27, awaiting parts from Germany.

A 7% interest rate and the cost of inflation is what is delaying auto purchases for most, not competition.

 

[mathnerd88]

Using inventory as a measure is not a realistic comparison. If the cost cuts are stimulating new purchases, which they seriously are, think of how many people would order a new X with the tax credit, instead of ordering a new X for over $80k. Of course, the inventory would be stagnant. NONE of the inventory vehicles are eligible for the tax credit. NONE. Essentially, they are sitting there being overpriced. These inventories will take a long time to deplete.

Competition has little if any effect. I have driven all of them. IMHO, there is no competition, when you compare Auto-pilot, FSD, charging, and lack of a need for service. My Model YP has 27K miles and it hasn't ever seen the Tesla service shop. My patient today has a Mercedes EQS, which he has had for several months. He had a warning light and now his vehicle is sitting on the lot until Oct 27, awaiting parts from Germany.

A 7% interest rate and the cost of inflation is what is delaying auto purchases for most, not competition.

I disagree. Competition has a huge effect. There's a reason why Tesla just dropped the prices of the Model X. If the Model X was really selling that well Tesla wouldn't need to drop prices. There are a lot of options for EV's starting in 2024, including Honda/Acura, Kia/Hyundai, and not to mention other GM, Ford, Volvo, Polestar, etc. Volvo EX90 is looking to be a big competitor as well.

Given Tesla's reputation of build quality, I would say that these other competitors have a big shot at also picking up sales, given complaints regarding the Model X such as premature tire wear, panel gaps, wind noise, random rattles/sounds, etc. There's also the issue of Tesla IF you do need service, be prepared to have long wait times. Other manufacturers might be better in this regard.

I for one, ordered a Model X, but will try out these other EV's and trade in the Model X if there are better options out there and take advantage of another EV Tax credit in 2024. Also, charging options will be moot by then, as many manufacturers are adopting NACS and there are adapters available anyways.

Most people who own Teslas did not spring for FSD, as that is quite an expensive option. Most consumer Tesla's are used as commuter cars with <30 min commute or around town shopping.

 

[Chris1032]

I am sure that a lot of people, maybe 200 ordered the poverty model but I doubt that “demand” is up that much and it seems to have slowed. About a month ago tesla had 900 new in inventory today they have 400 and they keep adding new cars which means they have x’s stored and not listed yet. The used cars seem to be moving faster.

What do you mean poverty model? Are you referring to the 5-seater model x as a poverty model?

 

[Tiger]

1. You linked worldwide inventory numbers. Were the price reductions implemented in other regions? These would impact inventory trends, of course.

Prices were not equally distributed, but the base model is significantly lowered everywhere.

3. Even in the worldwide graph you posted, inventory is trending downward - since the price reduction. You can't look at the entire year when prices for much of that were $20-40k higher than they are now. After the price drop on 9/1, other than an anomalous spike where 1200 units went into inventory in a single day (which honestly appears to be a data error when you look at plus or minus 3 days), it's trended downward from 8/27 at plus/minus 4100 units to plus/minus 2500 units now.

I think all the trigger happy have pulled their trigger and the rest of us are in the trenches waiting for the 2024 avalanche, if for nothing else then just for the further price and build quality competition.

4. Inventory is only one side of the story. Many people would prefer to get a newly produced car when they pay full price. As mentioned, new car delivery wait times are increasing.

Normally people go to a dealership and buy from the lot if possible, wait time is a nuisance. People are waiting for these cars only because only the discounted MSRP qualifies for the $80k EV incentive so this is distorted picture as inventory does not qualify. This means that people are willing to pay an even lower price for the X (the incentivized price).

5. I'd welcome data supporting the claim that FSD transfer offer is motivating a significant number of purchases. I seriously doubt this is so. Take rate on FSD is abysmal, and the subset of buyers that already own a tesla with FSD has got to be tiny. The only evidence I see either way is that NA inventory numbers rose from around 1150 on July 20 to 2100 right before the price drop. This is the period the offer was available. At the previous prices, the FSD offer wasn't enough to bring demand up to supply.

There are only some anecdotal examples on this forum, but the number of those is in the same ballpark as the number of anecdotal mentions of people buying the X in general, so it seems significant.

As you say, time will tell. In the meantime, I find it fun to speculate and look at data and trends. I just haven't seen any solid evidence supporting the theory that prices will drop further. In point of fact, prices have actually gone up slightly when you factor reduced loyalty/referral. What I am seeing are generalized statements about increasing competition. While I can't deny there will be more options in the days to come as the big automakers turn their gazes toward EVs, I have zero brand loyalty (in fact, in Tesla's case, less than zero), and the competition still doesn't look very compelling to me. I never considered a Model X worth >$120k, but $90k for an Plaid? Yeah.

Believe me, I really HOPE we get competition, but nothing in the mid-sized SUV horizon has me very tempted. Luckily, my oldest kid (of 3) will be heading to college the year BMW starts making the new EV M3. When I don't need that extra space anymore... So long, Tesla

Anyways, to get back on the topic of the thread, I really hope they make Plaid Model 3 which is quicker and faster than the Model X Plaid so I can get that instead Then I can get off the case of the Model X price as it won't matter any more (... so it will drop even further from the perceived contrast ...).

 

[Fairchild]

I disagree. Competition has a huge effect. There's a reason why Tesla just dropped the prices of the Model X. If the Model X was really selling that well Tesla wouldn't need to drop prices. There are a lot of options for EV's starting in 2024, including Honda/Acura, Kia/Hyundai, and not to mention other GM, Ford, Volvo, Polestar, etc. Volvo EX90 is looking to be a big competitor as well.

Given Tesla's reputation of build quality, I would say that these other competitors have a big shot at also picking up sales, given complaints regarding the Model X such as premature tire wear, panel gaps, wind noise, random rattles/sounds, etc. There's also the issue of Tesla IF you do need service, be prepared to have long wait times. Other manufacturers might be better in this regard.

I for one, ordered a Model X, but will try out these other EV's and trade in the Model X if there are better options out there and take advantage of another EV Tax credit in 2024. Also, charging options will be moot by then, as many manufacturers are adopting NACS and there are adapters available anyways.

Most people who own Teslas did not spring for FSD, as that is quite an expensive option. Most consumer Tesla's are used as commuter cars with <30 min commute or around town shopping.

I respect your opinion.

As I said, I've driven most of them and owned a couple of them and from my experience, Tesla doesn't have much to worry about.

Early in the year, Musk, who knows the market better than most economists, decided that the only numbers important to him were the sales numbers.
WIth sales numbers dropping due to the impending recession. he began cutting vehicle costs to sustain sales numbers.

Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) has slashed prices globally on its electric vehicles by as much as 20%, extending an aggressive discounting effort and challenging rivals after missing Wall Street delivery estimates for 2022. The move marks a reversal from the automaker's strategy over the last two years when new vehicle orders exceeded supply. It comes after CEO Elon Musk warned that the prospect of recession and higher interest rates meant it could lower prices to sustain growth at the expense of profit.

In a business, when the economy changes, you must do what you have to do to survive and change with it, and most important of all. you must have the capital to be able to do it. Dragging their fingernails across the pavement "some" other EV makers had to follow suit and cut prices. They had to cut prices on vehicles in which they were already losing their ass with negative profit margins. Those who didn't are no longer around. Now, take Tesla. Take the Model X which has the largest cut in prices. It moves from a 27% profit margin to a 14% profit margin. Still profit. Cutting the price of Ford F-150 Lightening to keep up will take it's 8% profit down to -14%. Factor in a lengthy strike and forfeitures to union workers in COLA and wage increases and we are talking real money.1

Ford expects EV business unit to lose $3B this year​

Ask any pimple-faced kid at McDonald's what kind of car they want, and are saving for. 9/10 will say Tesla. Like Apple, which gave computers away to kindergarten kids across the nation, and is now reaping the benefits, Musk is running at 100%, (make that 200% with inflation). You may laugh at "fart" mode, "open my butt hole," and an unmatched array of games, but these features are being imprinted on young people's brains, and they are your loyal customers of the future. They won't be looking at competitor's models.

Why have I just ordered my 10th Tesla? Because I can't find a better vehicle for the price and out of brand loyalty, and certainly not because I get any special bennies for it, because I don't. I agree that objects in the rearview mirror may be larger than they appear, but not in this decade and yes, the service isn't always the best, but I don't have to wait a month for parts from overseas and what other automaker comes to my office to change my cabin filter, while I am busy at work? No, they don't deliver my new Tesla to my door anymore, but they are still miles in front of the competition. When I asked to have my 9th Tesla delivered to my local dealer, they said, "No". I replied, "But I am a loyal customer and this is my 9th Tesla." She said, "SO?"

Competition for the near future for Tesla is a small dent, whereas for other automakers, it spells a head-on-collision. While Tesla has how many ultra-efficient robotic giga-factories, others are struggling to build out and modernize their greasy old factories?

The other EV makers aren't even a spec in the rearview mirror, let alone serious competition, at least not in this decade.

 

[YellowJacketMS]

Take the Model X which has the largest cut in prices. It moves from a 27% profit margin to a 14% profit margin. Still profit. Cutting the price of Ford F-150 Lightening to keep up will take it's 8% profit down to -14%. Factor in a lengthy strike and forfeitures to union workers in COLA and wage increases and we are talking real money.

Fairchild - If I'm reading your above post, is the cost to produce a Model X around 70k?

 

[Neon001]

Factor in a lengthy strike and forfeitures to union workers in COLA and wage increases and we are talking real money.

This can't be understated for American manufacturers. Not that I think those represent a significant portion of actual competition for Tesla, but there is no way the big 3 are getting out of these strikes with anything other than ruinous results. The concessions UAW are asking for are, quite frankly, completely ridiculous.

 

[patentesq]

My 2 cents:
- Tesla only builds the Model X for "sentimental reasons". The X is no longer important to the Tesla mission at all. Tiny percentage of sales, complex vehicle to build and service.
- Tesla will NOT be redesigning the X or changing the doors in any way. The current X is the final form.
- New X prices will continue to drop much more than you think they will, as the X production volume ramps up, and raw materials costs go down. Eventually sales and profit will drop to the break-even point, at which time Tesla will discontinue the X, maybe in 2025. At that point, the Y will become more luxurious and the high-volume car will be the little robotaxi.

I hereby dare Tesla to drop prices further, then I could justify ordering a MXP and dropping my super early EX90 preorder. I also think in 2024 Tesla drops prices more on X/S to entice Rivian, Volvo, Polestar, higher budget cross shoppers.

 

[Super_Popular]

I hereby dare Tesla to drop prices further, then I could justify ordering a MXP and dropping my super early EX90 preorder. I also think in 2024 Tesla drops prices more on X/S to entice Rivian, Volvo, Polestar, higher budget cross shoppers.

I predict in 2024 Tesla will cancel the S/X

 

[Tiger]

Ford expects EV business unit to lose $3B this year

Weird choice of wording. When Tesla was burning money it was called investment and startup (and bankwupt).

 

[Tiger]

I predict in 2024 Tesla will cancel the S/X

They could revamp them to be more spacious and easier to build, better margins at lower price point. No need to drop them.

Maybe Optimus can lend a hand to reduce manufactunring costs also.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1704915293246562560

 

[Fairchild]

Fairchild - If I'm reading your above post, is the cost to produce a Model X around 70k?

I'd guess about $68,800. Not sure anyone knows for sure.
Whatever it is, its' dropping weekly.

Tesla's Production Cost Per Vehicle Is $36K, Down From $84K In 2017​

Tesla's Production Cost Per Vehicle Is $36K, Down From $84K In 2017

Tesla benefitted from better vehicle design to make manufacturing as easy as possible, as well as new factory design, according to Martin Viecha, head of IR.

insideevs.com

Constantly reducing production costs is what will keep other manufacturers from catching up for a very long time.
Cuts....cuts....cuts. I wouldn't want to work there. The daily mantra is "Do more, for less."

Remember, Tesla doesn't have a union! And surprisingly, that is by vote of the employees, so they must feel that they are well taken care of.

Bring in the UAW, (or non-US equivalent) and the UPHILL competition battle for other manufacturers just got a whole lot steeper!!

 

[bnsfengineer]

I went to the order page today and now you can get all colors including the new red at no charge?? No wonder anyone that bought a car last year saw depreciation like no other car purchased before! Heck my Honda's held up better for resale than any of my Tesla's!

 

[Hbcubs]

I'm torn. I like it. The interior size is just a tad smaller than the Telluride and the ground clearance is poor (it's more minivan) and the 2nd/3rd mechanized folding system is problematic. With that said... it should ride nice, be very quiet on the highway, and charge fast. The interior is nicer than in an Ioniq 5 and EV6 - which is a bonus.

If the EV9 was $70K with 270 miles of highway range it would be a hit. Salesguy hinted well over $80K for the GT-Line I looked at. That's a no-go for me.... too close to Rivian and Model X pricing.

I’ve seen the $80k price thrown around for the GT-Line and with the specs of the EV9, it was a non-negotiable. I like the car snd I think it’s got some good ideas, but with the price reduction, I just ordered an X.

 

[Fairchild]

I’ve seen the $80k price thrown around for the GT-Line and with the specs of the EV9, it was a non-negotiable. I like the car snd I think it’s got some good ideas, but with the price reduction, I just ordered an X.

Good Choice. NO competition. You will love your Model X. I have had two of them and don't have any complaints, except for the years they had the shudder. My Raven set the Quickest SUV World Speed record at PBIR, besting the $230,000 Lamborghini Urus.

I just ordered an Ultra-Red - Delivery Oct 9 - Nov 17

You may hear a lot of complaints about the Falcon wing doors. I never had a problem with them on either the 2016 or the 2019. The complainers probably needed to keep the kids from hanging from them.

EV90 It's a KIA (Hyundai) that looks like a tank (and NO tax credit)
Tesla just put a big pin into the EV launch balloon with the Model X price drop

I can hear the mike drop, all the way from Korea.

 

[mathnerd88]

I respect your opinion.

As I said, I've driven most of them and owned a couple of them and from my experience, Tesla doesn't have much to worry about.

Early in the year, Musk, who knows the market better than most economists, decided that the only numbers important to him were the sales numbers.
WIth sales numbers dropping due to the impending recession. he began cutting vehicle costs to sustain sales numbers.

Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) has slashed prices globally on its electric vehicles by as much as 20%, extending an aggressive discounting effort and challenging rivals after missing Wall Street delivery estimates for 2022. The move marks a reversal from the automaker's strategy over the last two years when new vehicle orders exceeded supply. It comes after CEO Elon Musk warned that the prospect of recession and higher interest rates meant it could lower prices to sustain growth at the expense of profit.

In a business, when the economy changes, you must do what you have to do to survive and change with it, and most important of all. you must have the capital to be able to do it. Dragging their fingernails across the pavement "some" other EV makers had to follow suit and cut prices. They had to cut prices on vehicles in which they were already losing their ass with negative profit margins. Those who didn't are no longer around. Now, take Tesla. Take the Model X which has the largest cut in prices. It moves from a 27% profit margin to a 14% profit margin. Still profit. Cutting the price of Ford F-150 Lightening to keep up will take it's 8% profit down to -14%. Factor in a lengthy strike and forfeitures to union workers in COLA and wage increases and we are talking real money.1

Ford expects EV business unit to lose $3B this year​

Ask any pimple-faced kid at McDonald's what kind of car they want, and are saving for. 9/10 will say Tesla. Like Apple, which gave computers away to kindergarten kids across the nation, and is now reaping the benefits, Musk is running at 100%, (make that 200% with inflation). You may laugh at "fart" mode, "open my butt hole," and an unmatched array of games, but these features are being imprinted on young people's brains, and they are your loyal customers of the future. They won't be looking at competitor's models.

Why have I just ordered my 10th Tesla? Because I can't find a better vehicle for the price and out of brand loyalty, and certainly not because I get any special bennies for it, because I don't. I agree that objects in the rearview mirror may be larger than they appear, but not in this decade and yes, the service isn't always the best, but I don't have to wait a month for parts from overseas and what other automaker comes to my office to change my cabin filter, while I am busy at work? No, they don't deliver my new Tesla to my door anymore, but they are still miles in front of the competition. When I asked to have my 9th Tesla delivered to my local dealer, they said, "No". I replied, "But I am a loyal customer and this is my 9th Tesla." She said, "SO?"

Competition for the near future for Tesla is a small dent, whereas for other automakers, it spells a head-on-collision. While Tesla has how many ultra-efficient robotic giga-factories, others are struggling to build out and modernize their greasy old factories?

The other EV makers aren't even a spec in the rearview mirror, let alone serious competition, at least not in this decade.

I'm not sure, because right now, I'm heavily deciding between leasing a BMW iX/Mercedes EQE/EQS SUV which is actually several hundred dollars cheaper per month than leasing a Model X tax credit edition. I'm only considering 5 seat models because of the tax credit.

Arguably, those two have way better build quality, and service. Obviously there are some once in a while bad experiences with any vehicle (Tesla included,) but reviews have rated BMW iX much better than the Tesla Model X.

BMW iX has actually more range than the Tesla Model X.

Now if I were to BUY one, then yes, Tesla Model X is a good proposition given the price drop, but for leasing, it's a different story. I'm a little apprehensive buying a Tesla because of the constant updates Tesla does as well as price drops and I'm not planning on keeping my Tesla very long.

 

[bnsfengineer]

I'm not sure, because right now, I'm heavily deciding between leasing a BMW iX/Mercedes EQE/EQS SUV which is actually several hundred dollars cheaper per month than leasing a Model X tax credit edition. I'm only considering 5 seat models because of the tax credit.

Arguably, those two have way better build quality, and service. Obviously there are some once in a while bad experiences with any vehicle (Tesla included,) but reviews have rated BMW iX much better than the Tesla Model X.

BMW iX has actually more range than the Tesla Model X.

Now if I were to BUY one, then yes, Tesla Model X is a good proposition given the price drop, but for leasing, it's a different story. I'm a little apprehensive buying a Tesla because of the constant updates Tesla does as well as price drops and I'm not planning on keeping my Tesla very long.

What am I missing...iX is rated @ 305-311? However the lease seems like a great deal!

 

[Neon001]

What am I missing...iX is rated @ 305-311? However the lease seems like a great deal!

Rated range on every car other than Tesla are usually pretty accurate, if not underestimated. Tesla numbers, OTOH, are always unrealistic for real world driving. I'd be surprised if any MX was able to get more than 300 miles of range, even going 100-0 SoC. Maybe if you were driving 50 mph the whole way, but that's pretty unrealistic.

 

[NJturtlePower]

I went to the order page today and now you can get all colors including the new red at no charge?? No wonder anyone that bought a car last year saw depreciation like no other car purchased before! Heck my Honda's held up better for resale than any of my Tesla's!

Free colors since a few days after the Sept. 1st price drop + Tesla loyalty WAS $1k (and3-months FSD) when I ordered on 9/4, was cut to $500 a few days later.