Prediction: Model X price will be reduced to $78K in January 2024

[Tiger]

I don't see another price reduction coming on the X. They had to take a huge hit on their profit margin to get it down to $7990, and the sole purpose of that was to meet the tax credit eligibility. They even had to throw in the free paint colors to include the $3000 Ultra-Red. Not much room for additional profit cutting. Additionally, I think they will see enough sales volume with these cuts to make it worthwhile. I know at least 10 people who have ordered a new Model S or X since the price cuts. With my CYBRTRK coming next year (Oct/Nov), I would have held onto my 2023 MYP with 27k miles, but the X in Ultra was just too tempting. I've had two Xs before and miss the luxury and convenience. I also think that early next year as the interest rates are cut, and car sales are back up, the S and X prices will increase in price next year, so I expect to have a car that appreciates. That happened with my 2022 MY. I sold it for $8k more than I paid for it. So it's on to Tesla #10.

And NO. The seven-seater X is a $3500 option and brings the X price to $83490.

You yourself raise a point that nobody will pay more for an X than what a CT will go for. If they want to keep selling them, they will have to go down low with the prices. It is just such a hot mess in comparison to the competition, including the CT.

 

[YellowJacketMS]

You yourself raise a point that nobody will pay more for an X than what a CT will go for. If they want to keep selling them, they will have to go down low with the prices. It is just such a hot mess in comparison to the competition, including the CT.

Why would nobody pay more for an X? They are different classes of cars. If anything I'd say nobody wants to pay more for a CT than an X.

 

[Fairchild]

I foresee a cheaper Model X in the future... maybe RWD without the gull wing doors. Sub $70K.

That's called a Model Y. The Best Selling Vehicle in the World. Tesla's plate is full with the $25,000 vehicle. No new Model X. A van, maybe.

I rented and drove the BMW in Hawaii. Send it back to the Alps. And it looks like my father's Oldsmobile and kind of resembles a hearse. To each their own. Home charging is 11 hours at 30 mph. My Tesla home charger cranks 42 mph, as does my FPL EVolution charger which costs me a max of $31 a month. And charging at public chargers where 1/3 actually work. No downloads, No FSD. Auto-steer almost took me off of a cliff. Nah. Never ever! It's a choice, that I would never make, especially after renting one.

 

[Fairchild]

You yourself raise a point that nobody will pay more for an X than what a CT will go for. If they want to keep selling them, they will have to go down low with the prices. It is just such a hot mess in comparison to the competition, including the CT.

Apples and Oranges.
Many people paid $120k for the X, just at the beginning of this year. Poor souls.

 

[SpicyPaneer]

That's called a Model Y. The Best Selling Vehicle in the World. Tesla's plate is full with the $25,000 vehicle. No new Model X. A van, maybe.

I rented and drove the BMW in Hawaii. Send it back to the Alps. And it looks like my father's Oldsmobile and kind of resembles a hearse. To each their own. Home charging is 11 hours at 30 mph. My Tesla home charger cranks 42 mph, as does my FPL EVolution charger which costs me a max of $31 a month. And charging at public chargers where 1/3 actually work. No downloads, No FSD. Auto-steer almost took me off of a cliff. Nah. Never ever! It's a choice, that I would never make, especially after renting one.

I can’t stand the front grill no matter how great the car is. These new BMW’s are ugly as Fack

 

[Fairchild]

I can’t stand the front grill no matter how great the car is. These new BMW’s are ugly as Fack

And I can tell you that ugly grill is the cheapest plastic I have ever seen. You can tell from 20 ft away.
The only thing uglier is the LEXUS Cow Catcher grill.

 

[Fairchild]

No further price reductions necessary for the X.

As per observations from Tesla watchers on social media, it appears that the price cuts have resulted in a wave of orders for the Model X. This was hinted at in the estimated delivery dates of the flagship all-electric SUV. Initially, the vehicle was listed with an estimated delivery date of September to October 2023. This was later changed to October to November 2023.
And as per Tesla’s online configurator for the Model X in the United States today, the flagship all-electric SUV is currently listed with an estimated delivery date of November to December 2023.
-Teslarati.

 

[SpicyPaneer]

No further price reductions necessary for the X.

As per observations from Tesla watchers on social media, it appears that the price cuts have resulted in a wave of orders for the Model X. This was hinted at in the estimated delivery dates of the flagship all-electric SUV. Initially, the vehicle was listed with an estimated delivery date of September to October 2023. This was later changed to October to November 2023.
And as per Tesla’s online configurator for the Model X in the United States today, the flagship all-electric SUV is currently listed with an estimated delivery date of November to December 2023.
-Teslarati.

Your right I’m seeing possible Nov - Dec 2023 delivery dates. I can’t make up my mind on the color combo, black white or beige with ultra red exterior. I had white before and it was great. I heard the newer material (KimJava) on YouTube mentioned the perforated seats have a weaker material on her white interior. Has anyone experienced this in their perforated seats?

 

[Sunshine Speed]

My 2 cents:
- Tesla only builds the Model X for "sentimental reasons". The X is no longer important to the Tesla mission at all. Tiny percentage of sales, complex vehicle to build and service.
- Tesla will NOT be redesigning the X or changing the doors in any way. The current X is the final form.
- New X prices will continue to drop much more than you think they will, as the X production volume ramps up, and raw materials costs go down. Eventually sales and profit will drop to the break-even point, at which time Tesla will discontinue the X, maybe in 2025. At that point, the Y will become more luxurious and the high-volume car will be the little robotaxi.

 

[Tiger]

Why would nobody pay more for an X? They are different classes of cars. If anything I'd say nobody wants to pay more for a CT than an X.

Time will tell. In the long run, money talks and bs walks.

 

[Neon001]

Time will tell. In the long run, money talks and bs walks.

Facts:

1. The CT is not available, and will not be for people without pre-orders for years.
2. Since prices on Model X were lowered 19 days ago, EDDs have gone from Sep-Oct to Nov-Dec. North American MX inventory has been cut >75% over the same period. Demand is outpacing supply.

Maybe we see things differently, but I'd say the money is talking, and the bs appears to be the so-called competition, which clearly isn't enough of a threat to Tesla to affect orders, at least in the near term.

 

[voxel]

That's called a Model Y. The Best Selling Vehicle in the World. Tesla's plate is full with the $25,000 vehicle. No new Model X. A van, maybe.

I rented and drove the BMW in Hawaii. Send it back to the Alps. And it looks like my father's Oldsmobile and kind of resembles a hearse. To each their own. Home charging is 11 hours at 30 mph. My Tesla home charger cranks 42 mph, as does my FPL EVolution charger which costs me a max of $31 a month. And charging at public chargers where 1/3 actually work. No downloads, No FSD. Auto-steer almost took me off of a cliff. Nah. Never ever! It's a choice, that I would never make, especially after renting one.

The Model Y is perfectly priced. It was not worth the $67K last year. It's a mid-$40s SUV and even less with the buckets of government incentives thrown at EVs around the world.

Same with the Model X. It is an $80K vehicle... no more. It lacks the higher-end luxury elements other SUVs have as I find the ride harsh and space-wise it is sub mid-size SUV. The iX 50 without air suspension is on par with the Model X. Both are relatively low volume vehicle. The air suspension iX is another level of comfort.

At the same price point... I think the Rivian R1S will outside the Model X - 3 to 1 or even 5 to 1.

 

[Fairchild]

Your right I’m seeing possible Nov - Dec 2023 delivery dates. I can’t make up my mind on the color combo, black white or beige with ultra red exterior. I had white before and it was great. I heard the newer material (KimJava) on YouTube mentioned the perforated seats have a weaker material on her white interior. Has anyone experienced this in their perforated seats?

Would love white interior in FL,, but the price of white or beige pushes it over the $80K limit. The only option is black if you still want the $7500 tax credit
Reports are that the cooled seats are very effective, so I settled for the Ultra-Red with Black seats.

 

[Tiger]

Facts:

2. Since prices on Model X were lowered 19 days ago, EDDs have gone from Sep-Oct to Nov-Dec. North American MX inventory has been cut >75% over the same period. Demand is outpacing supply.

Maybe we see things differently, but I'd say the money is talking, and the bs appears to be the so-called competition, which clearly isn't enough of a threat to Tesla to affect orders, at least in the near term.

We can say demand is outpacing supply when new inventories are empty or even trending down. As of today, Model X inventory is trending up with all the current demand levers. The recent sales were from pent-up demand from people who already had made purhcase decision but didn't have the finances, or wanted to capture the FSD transfer.

The competition is already slowing down the purchases (judging form the inventory development), as people are holding off their purchase decisions to next year, to see what's out there. The competition is good enough to postpone decision. Anyways, time will tell.

 

[awd_rails]

Inventory trending down or up? Is it not now trending down since current estimates for new orders have EDD of Dec. And seems like lots of people with orders in early Sept have their EDD to now be Oct-Dec (myself included).

Demand definitely seems up

 

[Super_Popular]

Inventory trending down or up? Is it not now trending down since current estimates for new orders have EDD of Dec. And seems like lots of people with orders in early Sept have their EDD to now be Oct-Dec (myself included).

Demand definitely seems up

I am sure that a lot of people, maybe 200 ordered the poverty model but I doubt that “demand” is up that much and it seems to have slowed. About a month ago tesla had 900 new in inventory today they have 400 and they keep adding new cars which means they have x’s stored and not listed yet. The used cars seem to be moving faster.

 

[Neon001]

We can say demand is outpacing supply when new inventories are empty or even trending down. As of today, Model X inventory is trending up with all the current demand levers. The recent sales were from pent-up demand from people who already had made purhcase decision but didn't have the finances, or wanted to capture the FSD transfer.

The competition is already slowing down the purchases (judging form the inventory development), as people are holding off their purchase decisions to next year, to see what's out there. The competition is good enough to postpone decision. Anyways, time will tell.

1. You linked worldwide inventory numbers. Were the price reductions implemented in other regions? These would impact inventory trends, of course.

2. I linked the NA inventory in the post you replied to, which is obviously trending downward, and significantly so. It's also obviously in response to the price reductions, as from 8/31 to 9/2 inventory count goes from 2111 to 1017. The correlation is so strong it can only be causation.

3. Even in the worldwide graph you posted, inventory is trending downward - since the price reduction. You can't look at the entire year when prices for much of that were $20-40k higher than they are now. After the price drop on 9/1, other than an anomalous spike where 1200 units went into inventory in a single day (which honestly appears to be a data error when you look at plus or minus 3 days), it's trended downward from 8/27 at plus/minus 4100 units to plus/minus 2500 units now.

4. Inventory is only one side of the story. Many people would prefer to get a newly produced car when they pay full price. As mentioned, new car delivery wait times are increasing.

5. I'd welcome data supporting the claim that FSD transfer offer is motivating a significant number of purchases. I seriously doubt this is so. Take rate on FSD is abysmal, and the subset of buyers that already own a tesla with FSD has got to be tiny. The only evidence I see either way is that NA inventory numbers rose from around 1150 on July 20 to 2100 right before the price drop. This is the period the offer was available. At the previous prices, the FSD offer wasn't enough to bring demand up to supply.

As you say, time will tell. In the meantime, I find it fun to speculate and look at data and trends. I just haven't seen any solid evidence supporting the theory that prices will drop further. In point of fact, prices have actually gone up slightly when you factor reduced loyalty/referral. What I am seeing are generalized statements about increasing competition. While I can't deny there will be more options in the days to come as the big automakers turn their gazes toward EVs, I have zero brand loyalty (in fact, in Tesla's case, less than zero), and the competition still doesn't look very compelling to me. I never considered a Model X worth >$120k, but $90k for an Plaid? Yeah.

Believe me, I really HOPE we get competition, but nothing in the mid-sized SUV horizon has me very tempted. Luckily, my oldest kid (of 3) will be heading to college the year BMW starts making the new EV M3. When I don't need that extra space anymore... So long, Tesla

 

[Kandiru]

Damn, my foodie wife has a hard time breathing in my M3 anymore, keeps prodding me to use her next Christmas bonus to get an MX after she drove a loaner and now that she is in love with the MDX Type S air suspension, now it will be hard to resist.

 

[awd_rails]

Many people would prefer to get a newly produced car when they pay full price.

This is a really odd to me that people see a difference in existing inventory (e.g. build 8/23) vs newly produced rolled out of factory today (9/23). If there were hardware difference, or waiting between a 202X vs a 202Y, then sure. But if all things are equal, what's the thinking behind the difference?

Wish Tesla would just match me with a Plaid VIN from their current 8/23 stock and ship it down here! Or all that inventory has configurations that aren't popular atm. lol Even most of the current MXLR inventory are yoke wheels

 

[chrsgerhart]

1. You linked worldwide inventory numbers. Were the price reductions implemented in other regions? These would impact inventory trends, of course.

2. I linked the NA inventory in the post you replied to, which is obviously trending downward, and significantly so. It's also obviously in response to the price reductions, as from 8/31 to 9/2 inventory count goes from 2111 to 1017. The correlation is so strong it can only be causation.

3. Even in the worldwide graph you posted, inventory is trending downward - since the price reduction. You can't look at the entire year when prices for much of that were $20-40k higher than they are now. After the price drop on 9/1, other than an anomalous spike where 1200 units went into inventory in a single day (which honestly appears to be a data error when you look at plus or minus 3 days), it's trended downward from 8/27 at plus/minus 4100 units to plus/minus 2500 units now.

4. Inventory is only one side of the story. Many people would prefer to get a newly produced car when they pay full price. As mentioned, new car delivery wait times are increasing.

5. I'd welcome data supporting the claim that FSD transfer offer is motivating a significant number of purchases. I seriously doubt this is so. Take rate on FSD is abysmal, and the subset of buyers that already own a tesla with FSD has got to be tiny. The only evidence I see either way is that NA inventory numbers rose from around 1150 on July 20 to 2100 right before the price drop. This is the period the offer was available. At the previous prices, the FSD offer wasn't enough to bring demand up to supply.

As you say, time will tell. In the meantime, I find it fun to speculate and look at data and trends. I just haven't seen any solid evidence supporting the theory that prices will drop further. In point of fact, prices have actually gone up slightly when you factor reduced loyalty/referral. What I am seeing are generalized statements about increasing competition. While I can't deny there will be more options in the days to come as the big automakers turn their gazes toward EVs, I have zero brand loyalty (in fact, in Tesla's case, less than zero), and the competition still doesn't look very compelling to me. I never considered a Model X worth >$120k, but $90k for an Plaid? Yeah.

Believe me, I really HOPE we get competition, but nothing in the mid-sized SUV horizon has me very tempted. Luckily, my oldest kid (of 3) will be heading to college the year BMW starts making the new EV M3. When I don't need that extra space anymore... So long, Tesla

There's literally no other 6 seater EV available right now unless you count the Kia EV9 that will be available 'soonish'