Tiger
Active Member
Passed demand. Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results.
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Prediction: Model X price will be reduced to $78K in January 2024
- Thread starter Sunshine Speed
- Start date
Dude, my post was post color price change. My point is that X LR has no room for price increase in 2024. It's simple economics, If Tesla increases price by $2,500, it would cost some buyers $10,000. No way that is going to happen. As long as X LR quality for Tax credit, this will be the highest price (due to $80k cap).
It can only Go down from hear on out for the rest of the year.
Honestly, we can't really predict anything for 2024. Thinking that the price will not go up in 2024 is kind of a fallacy. Also, the tax credit may even end in the blink of an eye when Congress decides to change tax credit regarding EVs again. It was unexpected for the tax credit to change back in August 2022 already.
The reason why I'm saying that prices may even increase is that every other EV has not lowered in price (in fact, they have all increased their prices in 2024.) Even the Acura ZDX costs almost $75k for the Type S, and is more comparable to the MYP in terms of performance. BMW iX and MB EQS SUVs prices have been going up too.
The only way Tesla can keep lowering prices is by taking away features from the car. If they don't, then prices will eventually have to increase due to inflation. Another way to lower the price is to source the battery from cheaper sources, like China, which would disqualify it from the tax credit.
Everyone is just spoiled in thinking that Tesla will keep decreasing their prices, only because Tesla has been heavily discounting their cars only in the past year when in actuality, they're just bringing it down to normal prices prior to pandemic.
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BMW sucks. Any other EV is not even close to Tesla. The reason is that they have a good 70,000 strong team vs a few hundreds working for an individual company in EV department. Just like GM stopped making Bolt (not rehauling, similar will happen to every singe EV manufacturer). You can put as many miles as you want on Teslas, they will continue performing. Tesla gives 150,000 miles Battery warranty, and most of the cars go to straight junk yard around the same mileage or before (say about 85%).
Not sure what this comment has anything to do with the thread.
I own a Model X, and would actually rather prefer a BMW iX now that I've owned Model X for 2 months. At prices of over $80k, I would like to see more luxury features and quietness on the drive. BMW iX has more range, more comfort, quieter than the Model X, and more importantly, much better build quality. I can lease a BMW iX for about $700 a month, compared to way more for a Tesla Model X. Model X has some nice gimmicks, sure, but they're not game changers for me.
I'm getting rid of my Model X in a couple of years, as I'm not really happy with the vehicle, especially after spending $80k for it.
We have to also consider the demographic...people who can afford $80k vehicles have a lot more disposable income and are more likely to lease luxury vehicles.
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Tiger
Active Member
I believe in a couple of years they will have refreshed the X to be a good vehicle, from what they have learned from Highland and CT. However, it will take another couple of years more on top of that to iron out the kings and bleeding edge. Luckily other brands are dishing out alternatives at the same time also, just need to wait for good deals.
How do you feel about the fact that non-Teslas have a worse charging network for roadtrips? The main reason I didn’t consider other EVs was simply the charging network diff.
Tiger
Active Member
That used to be case but now all have NACS (or Tesla CCS superchargers opening to all in EU).
lonnielevi
Member
I wish Tesla had stipulations that your car must be able to precondition the battery and take more than 200+kW at 400V for 10 minutes before allowing the Bolts of the world to sit at a Supercharger for hours. Even Lucids won’t be able to take more than 50kW, because they are 800V architecture and use an onboard booster (DC-DC Converter/Transformer) to convert the 400V to 800V.
Tiger
Active Member
I find it quicker to preheat battery using few back-to-back acceleration runs:
"Driving is more fun."
MikeChicago
Member
This was ultimately the factor that swayed me in Tesla’s direction. Things have changed since.
That would only would matter to me if I wanted to use the charging network for roadtrips, but I don't. The whole benefit of paying less for electricity than gas goes out the window when it comes to using charging network outside of your own home. The inconvenience of waiting at a charging station that long instead of fueling up with gas on my ICE vehicle is too annoying for me to want to use EVs for long road trips. Also, the range is too poor to be an effective use for a road trip. I also have range anxiety so EV is a no-go for me for road trips.
For roadtrips, I much prefer using my ICE or PHEV vehicles. My Acura MDX (which I'm probably trading in for a Type S MDX for the new refresh this year) will probably be the one I use for roadtrips. It's actually more comfortable for me, and it's surprisingly quieter cruising on the highway than my Model X. Not only that, it's not as obnoxious compared to the Model X when it comes to autopilot (especially after the holiday update) compared to LKAS and radar cruise control on the Acura. I only use my Tesla for commuting to work and local driving around town. That's why for me, since I ONLY charge my car at home, it doesn't matter which EV I get. I have 2 level 2 Chargepoints hardwired in my garage at 48A, both J1772 right now.
My other PHEV (Jeep GC 4xe) gets 450 miles of range per charge and gas combined. On gas only, it can go 423 miles. My wife uses that for commuting to work, but even that vehicle would be better suited for roadtrips than the Model X given its long range before needing to fill up at a gas station in 5 minutes rather than waiting at a charging station.
Unfortunately, for me, EV's are not a one all be all vehicle for my needs. TBH, if I only had one vehicle, I would go for PHEV or hybrids, not a full EV because of the inconvenience of roadtrips when I need to.
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Tiger
Active Member
You can't honestly say that it is cheaper to own and operate a side-kick ICE or PHEV than pay a bit more for electric charging on an occasional road trip? You must be kidding. Even renting would be more expensive than a bit of overcharging the EV.
As for the road tripping, if your driving style includes stops, then current ranges are quite ok and 15-20min stops here and there won't really make a difference to travelling with ICE except that you have to "plan" your stops. With an ICE you can "wing it" and you can for example eat at a different location than where you fill up, without much affecting the overall travel time. With an EV you'd prefer to eat while charging.
One significant difference I did notice on a trip to the alps where we rented an ICE for a week in the winter (around 0 celcius/32F). We spent maybe 15% of the full fuel tank on a week's trip, but with an EV I believe it would have been maybe 150% worth of battery charge with full comfort and maybe barely a pinch less than 100% if we would skimp on preheating and climate. So definitely would have had more charge angsiety in an unfamiliar territoriy with an EV, but there was overnight charging at the hotel and a supercharger some twenty minutes drive away and in reality would have been trivial.
The bigger pain in the butt is like I want to travel cross country for road trips. I do not want to be hunting for charging stations which may be few and far in between especially in areas with less population. There are still not nearly enough of them to be able to travel comfortably anywhere I would want to go.
Money isn't a huge issue for me, but gas savings was only a minor part of my argument.
Also, supercharging in my mind decreases battery longevity, since you're charging at such high rates. Again to your point, in the winter, it's not as convenient for an EV. Chicagoland had huge problems during the snow storm and cold weather for Teslas resulting in huge lines for charging stations. Also, excuse me, but I do not like to eat in my $80k Tesla. I prefer to not eat in the car and get it all dirty/oily.
Now that I think about it, PHEV is the way to go for me. My commute to work is relatively short enough that I don't even have to use gas most of the time, but on those long trips, I have that convenience of being able to use gas if I wanted to.
Tiger
Active Member
From where to where? ABRP plans a trip from VA to WA with 30 minute stops every couple hours.
Yes it builds up on a long trip. My guess is that with ICE you would drive longer stretches but you would have longer breaks. I would perhaps have 45min breaks every 6h drive + passengers would want one 5min pee break during that time so that would add approximately 5 hours (assuming "serial" parking restrooms) to the otherwise 29 hour drive.
If you don't need it often it might make sense to fit and rent a range extending trailer:
It might actually even improve drag if it is properly designed:
Or perhaps you can use it as powerwall when parked at home, this way you can take it with you whenever you want.
But at current weights it does not make sense carrying 2x battery weight around with you for the 98% time you don't need it.
I assume you don't keep a car long enough for this to matter, but this might not be true at the moment:
That point also is largely debunked:
But ofcourse if people don't know to preheat their battery, it will affect also your access to chargers. But why would you charge in a public supercharger in a snow storm anyways? Optimal is to charge at home or where you are staying. If you were in the middle of your trip, everyone would have hot batteries anyways and the congestion would not occur.
That is probably optional, I would assume there are restaurants near charging stations, so you can charge while eating at a restaurant.
PHEV is useful if you drive like a grandma, as it will always kick in the gasoline engine if you push it or at higher speeds.
It is not rational to design such purchase around your worst case scenario, as you can always rent a PHEV for your occasional edge scenario.
henderrj
Active Member
Is it accurate to say that you have never, even once, taken a long road trip in your Model X? We put 230,000 miles on our December 2014 Model S, most of it was superchargers, and love the road trips. Original battery as well, by the way. We've already gone from North Carolina to Washington State in our 2018 model x. (Have owned it less than a year.) It has much faster charging, although nothing like the new ones. In fact I've had to interrupt my lunch a few times to go move the X so I don't get charged title fees! Very inconvenient.
5 years ago with the Model S, on a whim, I turned left and went into New Mexico. Middle of nowhere really. No problems. And that old model S barely has a 200 mi range, in real world highway use. The x with its larger battery, and more efficient operation, I really don't have any issues with.
I'm sure there are areas that wouldn't be perfect, but, it's not really that much different than ice traveling. Especially as we always choose hotels with destination chargers. Only one time in the last trip was that not possible. Not only is it less expensive, as you don't pay anything for the charge at night, but it was much more convenient. Ready to go in the morning and One or two supercharger stops during the day are nice for a break. But then, I'm not young anymore. I used to blast across the country and hardly realize what I drove past. Now I enjoy what I drive through!
But, to each their own.
On my Jeep GC 4xe, the engine will kick in when you floor it, but once you're cruising on the roads, battery is enough. Have you driven a PHEV? The engine only kicks in when you want to accelerate like a madman.
Eventually, once the battery runs out, then the engine will always kick on, but still run in "hybrid" mode. The car is designed that there is almost always enough battery for those short bursts of acceleration.
But anyways, I'm pretty sure the X5 50e PHEV from BMW is even more refined, given it uses a 6 cylinder engine.
Again, my case use scenario is that I use my Model X to work which happens about 99% of the time. I own two other vehicles, one PHEV, one ICE, for the times I decide weather is poor around the PNW area or I need more space or I need to bring 7 passengers. My wife hates the Tesla and hates the one pedal driving but she would much rather have PHEV over anything else.
Now you are confusing me. You said you want BMW IX and then you are saying you don't want EV at all and prefer MDX. MDX is indeed good but in Iphone era, you are using button phone like blackberry/nokia, but I would say its your choice. Also, where did you learn that IX has more range than X? Also, I am assuming you are not in US because in US, X is about $72.5k vs BMW IX (the cheapest versioon with NO additional accessories) cost $88x+taxes (~$93k). I would say, FIRST own and then write that you like BMW IX. I have model 3, and Y, and X is on its way. I drove to more than 500 miles in a day without any charging issues; have driven 50k miles combined, no issues. Also, having solar installed on my roof, I had paid $0 for ~45k miles with an exception of about 4-5k miles when I drove more than 130 miles from my house. I am in NJ; everywhere I see fast charging.
Tiger
Active Member
Ah..yes.. I only accelerate all the time
Otherwise I would buy a Leaf or for more miles the 500-mile Lucid.It's probably a nice car, if you don't mind the ICE chill mode. Test Driven?
Let your wife have what she wants, but I can't fathom why you would have additional ICE cars as you can rent the latest and greatest whenever you want to bother. Each to their own. Same as the people who fuzz about FSD, take a taxi (autonomous, eventually)! Interesting to see how the valuation of ICE cars is going to drop like a rock sometime in the future, not many years from now. Wouldn't want to be left holding the bag there.
Well, we need two cars for commuting to work for each of us, and then a bigger one with more seats when we have to take more family members out with us.
Honestly, I don't forsee ICE vehicles dropping like a rock for at least the next ten years. I don't see EV's actually overtaking ICE for a VERY long time. For the sourthern states, sure, but definitely not for the northern and more colder states. I feel that hybrids and PHEVs will be the ones which are the most popular. I believe that the $7500 tax credit will probably be changed again sometime in the next couple of years, which will make EVs more expensive again. Many people don't want to spend even more money installing Level 2 chargers in their homes.
Either way, I feel that the higher performance ICE will be relics and more sought after, so I don't find them dropping crazy price either.
Hertz trying to unload their EV vehicles does not bode well, citing expensive repair/maintenance costs. The demand for EVs is now slowing down.
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