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Prediction Thread - "You Called It"
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dc_h
Active Member
New gigafactory in China announced same time as model 3 hits 5000 a week in June. Tencent will fund construction and lease building to Tesla and Panasonic and possibly subcontractors. This will allow buildiyto come online in early 2020 without major capex until late 2019. Will build model Y initially, but add lines for model 3 and semi incremental growth to 2 million vehicles and 250 GWh of batteries.
My prediction, the production line stoppage from May 26th to May 31st will be to enable building of AWD models.
Here is my rationale :
-Musk said we would be able to start configuring and ordering AWD in the next few days.
-Building car takes about 5-6 weeks. Production resumes June 1st which means first AWD production cars come out mid/early July as promised
-Just in time for the magic 200,000th car and then increase output for last 2 quarters from 5k per week to 10k per week including extra revenue from AWD (which none of the analysts included in their calculations).
-If you’re a short, no wonder the flamethrowers should arrive around the same time
Here is my rationale :
-Musk said we would be able to start configuring and ordering AWD in the next few days.
-Building car takes about 5-6 weeks. Production resumes June 1st which means first AWD production cars come out mid/early July as promised
-Just in time for the magic 200,000th car and then increase output for last 2 quarters from 5k per week to 10k per week including extra revenue from AWD (which none of the analysts included in their calculations).
-If you’re a short, no wonder the flamethrowers should arrive around the same time
K_Dizzle
Member
I like this, I think theyll have the 3 line up first since they had it at the roadshows already. No reason why they couldnt have both up and running at the same time though.
FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
Tesla Model 3 production to ‘likely exceed’ 500 cars per day this week, says Elon Musk
There are a lot of eyes on Tesla’s Model 3 production ramp right now as both investors and reservation holders are anxiously waiting for Tesla to reach a production rate of 5,000 vehicles per week by the end of the quarter after about 6 months of delays. Now CEO Elon Musk says that they are making “great progress” as he believes it’s “quite likely” that they will exceed 500 cars per day this week – a 75% jump from last month.
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In an email to employees obtained by Electrek today, the CEO wrote: “It is looking quite likely that we will exceed 500 vehicles per day across all Model 3 production zones this week.” He also requested that if anyone knows of “any specific bottlenecks” that would prevent Tesla from achieving that production rate, they should come to him in order to address the situation this week. With production now running all week over 500 per day would add up to over 3,500 Model 3 vehicles per week.
Only a few weeks ago, Musk confirmed that Tesla was producing just over 2,000 Model 3 vehicles per week, but he also said that they have been working through some important bottlenecks that could result in significant production increases. On May 2, he said: “We got just in the last 24 hours at the Gigafactory managed to achieve a sustained rate of over 3,000 packs per week, and actually reached a peak hour with extrapolated outward would be a rate of about 5,000 cars per week.”
There are a lot of eyes on Tesla’s Model 3 production ramp right now as both investors and reservation holders are anxiously waiting for Tesla to reach a production rate of 5,000 vehicles per week by the end of the quarter after about 6 months of delays. Now CEO Elon Musk says that they are making “great progress” as he believes it’s “quite likely” that they will exceed 500 cars per day this week – a 75% jump from last month.
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In an email to employees obtained by Electrek today, the CEO wrote: “It is looking quite likely that we will exceed 500 vehicles per day across all Model 3 production zones this week.” He also requested that if anyone knows of “any specific bottlenecks” that would prevent Tesla from achieving that production rate, they should come to him in order to address the situation this week. With production now running all week over 500 per day would add up to over 3,500 Model 3 vehicles per week.
Only a few weeks ago, Musk confirmed that Tesla was producing just over 2,000 Model 3 vehicles per week, but he also said that they have been working through some important bottlenecks that could result in significant production increases. On May 2, he said: “We got just in the last 24 hours at the Gigafactory managed to achieve a sustained rate of over 3,000 packs per week, and actually reached a peak hour with extrapolated outward would be a rate of about 5,000 cars per week.”
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Tesla has decupled (ten-fold) its weekly production rate every three years, and there is no fundamental reason why this pace of growth cannot continue. If it does, then we can expect 500,000 annualized rate by the end of 2018, 5 million by the end of 2021, and 50 million by the end of 2024, but let's say 2025 to be conservative. Combined with the fact that full self-driving will allow tomorrow's vehicles to be used up to 20x more than today's cars, which are parked 95% of the time, 50 million annualized production effectively equal one billion annual units by 2025, which is the current population of vehicles in the world today. Note that I did not even mention tomorrow's Boring tunnels, which I expect will comprise majority of "ground" miles traveled by 2025.
50 million by 2025? When you say there are no fundamental reasons why these things can't happen, its worth reflecting on the fact that global market is around 70 million and I very much doubt, however good the car is, that they'll capture 2/3 of the global market in the next 7 years.
I admire your enthusiastic outlook
There is a reason ramp ups go in an S curve and not a hockey stick. The top auto companies in the world top out around 10 million vehicles a year. VW, GM, and Toyota have global manufacturing operations that they have built over decades. It took a lot of effort to build up that level of production, transport, and support for that many cars.
The logistics of scaling up production can't scale at the rate Tesla has done thus far. For one thing Tesla had the advantage of inheriting a final assembly factory in Fremont that is just now beginning to reach capacity. Anything they do from here on out is likely going to be built from the ground up and will be on a time scale closer to the GF 1 in Nevada, which still isn't done.
50 million cars a year by 2025 is logistically impossible. 10 million is impossible unless a global car company goes bankrupt and they pick up everything for a song. If they say took over GM and all its facilities, they would have an outside chance of reaching 5-10 million a year by 2025, but probably not even then.
The existing GF 1 is going to get them to 500K cars a year. They need to build the equivalent of another GF 1 for each 500K increment in production. That's $5 billion per 500K battery capacity. It's billions more for the final assembly plants. To get to enough batteries to make 10 million cars a year is going to cost is going to cost $45 billion. If they were going to go for 50 million a year would cost close to $0.5 trillion. Apple has the most cash of any company and they only have $285 billion.
The logistics of making enough batteries alone is staggering.
I do expect Tesla to be a major player by 2025. Their sales volume could put them somewhere around the middle of the pack of auto makers outside of China (China's car market is its own thing that works differently from the rest of the world).
The logistics of scaling up production can't scale at the rate Tesla has done thus far. For one thing Tesla had the advantage of inheriting a final assembly factory in Fremont that is just now beginning to reach capacity. Anything they do from here on out is likely going to be built from the ground up and will be on a time scale closer to the GF 1 in Nevada, which still isn't done.
50 million cars a year by 2025 is logistically impossible. 10 million is impossible unless a global car company goes bankrupt and they pick up everything for a song. If they say took over GM and all its facilities, they would have an outside chance of reaching 5-10 million a year by 2025, but probably not even then.
The existing GF 1 is going to get them to 500K cars a year. They need to build the equivalent of another GF 1 for each 500K increment in production. That's $5 billion per 500K battery capacity. It's billions more for the final assembly plants. To get to enough batteries to make 10 million cars a year is going to cost is going to cost $45 billion. If they were going to go for 50 million a year would cost close to $0.5 trillion. Apple has the most cash of any company and they only have $285 billion.
The logistics of making enough batteries alone is staggering.
I do expect Tesla to be a major player by 2025. Their sales volume could put them somewhere around the middle of the pack of auto makers outside of China (China's car market is its own thing that works differently from the rest of the world).
The world is very good at mass manufacturing, so I would not choose the work staggering. All Tesla needs is capital and time, both of which are currently available at suboptimal levels relative to Musk's ambitions. I do think Tesla will remain the most important EV manufacturer in the next decade.
The layoffs tell the story. Claiming to do it for profitability is the diversion. Tesla's owners don't require profitability, they require adequate working capital/liquidity. Seeking profitability now is actually a detrimental to long term value. But it seems obvious that Tesla isn't confident about access to more capital in the short term.
FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
Mass production is a learned skill and Tesla is still struggling to reach 5,000 per week. Reaching the next 10K milestone will be a challenge
Tesla Model 3 production update: Elon Musk will be ‘almost 24/7’ at factory to help fix a few bottlenecks
Tesla is currently pushing for Model 3 production to reach 5,000 units by the end of the quarter.
CEO Elon Musk gave a status update to employees. He said that all parts of the production process are now operating at over 3,500 units per week and he will stay “almost 24/7” at the Fremont factory to help fix the last few bottlenecks to bring the production to ~700 units per day. The update comes about a week after Tesla came out of the Model 3 production shutdown and Musk confirmed at the shareholder meeting that they are now sustaining a production of 500 units per day and a new production line is coming up.
At the shareholder meeting earlier this month, Musk said that they have started building up a new line. It reportedly serves as a temporary building to support the new Model 3 assembly line. Musk has also apparently assigned some top executives to help fix the trouble areas of the production process.
Jerome Guillen, the head of Tesla Semi, is now overseeing the new general assembly line and Tesla CTO JB Straubel is working on the ‘Module Zone 4’ at Gigafactory 1 to increase Model 3 battery pack production. The CEO invited anyone in the company who “feel can help out in any of those areas” to reach out to those execs and others in charge of the previously mentioned bottlenecks areas.
He added: “I will be at our Fremont factory almost 24/7 for the next several days checking in with those groups to make sure they have as many resources as they can handle.” In April, Musk said that he is back to sleeping on the Tesla factory floor to oversee Model 3 production when they were trying to increase production over 2,000 units per week. Over the following few weeks, they got it to over 3,500 units per week, but it now sounds like Musk wants to supervise another push that they hope will lead to Tesla reaching a production rate of 5,000 units per week by the end of the month.
Mass production is a learned skill and Tesla is still struggling to reach 5,000 per week. Reaching the next 10K milestone will be a challenge
Tesla Model 3 production update: Elon Musk will be ‘almost 24/7’ at factory to help fix a few bottlenecks
Tesla is currently pushing for Model 3 production to reach 5,000 units by the end of the quarter.
CEO Elon Musk gave a status update to employees. He said that all parts of the production process are now operating at over 3,500 units per week and he will stay “almost 24/7” at the Fremont factory to help fix the last few bottlenecks to bring the production to ~700 units per day. The update comes about a week after Tesla came out of the Model 3 production shutdown and Musk confirmed at the shareholder meeting that they are now sustaining a production of 500 units per day and a new production line is coming up.
At the shareholder meeting earlier this month, Musk said that they have started building up a new line. It reportedly serves as a temporary building to support the new Model 3 assembly line. Musk has also apparently assigned some top executives to help fix the trouble areas of the production process.
Jerome Guillen, the head of Tesla Semi, is now overseeing the new general assembly line and Tesla CTO JB Straubel is working on the ‘Module Zone 4’ at Gigafactory 1 to increase Model 3 battery pack production. The CEO invited anyone in the company who “feel can help out in any of those areas” to reach out to those execs and others in charge of the previously mentioned bottlenecks areas.
He added: “I will be at our Fremont factory almost 24/7 for the next several days checking in with those groups to make sure they have as many resources as they can handle.” In April, Musk said that he is back to sleeping on the Tesla factory floor to oversee Model 3 production when they were trying to increase production over 2,000 units per week. Over the following few weeks, they got it to over 3,500 units per week, but it now sounds like Musk wants to supervise another push that they hope will lead to Tesla reaching a production rate of 5,000 units per week by the end of the month.
Not the scale we are talking about here. 600,000 to a million cars per year is a tiny car maker. Value Analyst's 50,000,000i 2025 is something else entirely (and perhaps an indication of operating the interweb while enjoying a few cocktails).
Subaru us just now approaching 1 million cars a year. Tesla's near term aim is to be about the size of Subaru in volume. 50 million is 10X VW, Toyota or GM. That's a scale nobody has ever achieved in the history of auto making.
I originally thought this is just a humorous sarcastic post, until I saw who wrote it.
10k/week will stretch their resources and they may need a new factory for that.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Please keep ad hominem to yourself. This is not helpful for discussion.
@AudubonB is there a thread I can share my longer term predictions without being attacked by trolls? I thought this was it, but maybe not.
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To be frank, it's not a discussion when you quote such ludicrous volumes in the future and don't see the problem with that.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Did you have anything specific to say about why it is "ludicrous" or will you leave it as a blanket dismissal?
I've already told you - your prediction that by 2025 Tesla will make 2/3 of all new cars in world is not even worthy of further debate.
Has Tesla indicated the unit volume they believe they can push out of Fremont? I remember one point it was a million units. Then I recall Musk said that shipping that volume from a single point would be too costly. My vague impression today is that they are shooting for something like 600,000 M3 and 100K S/X.
I don't think they can count on sustained demand of 10,000 M3 per week. So IMO they will need to introduce the model Y in 2020 to be safe from overbuilding capacity.
I don't think they can count on sustained demand of 10,000 M3 per week. So IMO they will need to introduce the model Y in 2020 to be safe from overbuilding capacity.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Are you now the moderator of this thread? I can post a prediction, and if some people want to debate it as adults, we can; and if you want to stay away from an adult discussion, you can. This is called freedom of choice.
Further, I did not predict "by 2025 Tesla will make 2/3 of all new cars in world," so you didn't even understand my prediction before you dismissed it, and now you are resorting to reframing, putting words in my mouth, and straw man argument, in addition to blanket dismissal, in order to seem like you are in the right. I am done with this back-and-forth for the benefit of others.
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