JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I think you're over reacting here. People are allowed to have a negative opinion of someone.
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Prediction Thread - "You Called It"
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I think you're over reacting here. People are allowed to have a negative opinion of someone.
I politely pointed out that when there are only 70m cars made a year, Tesla making 50m would be 2/3. I fully understood the point.
My bad. I wish I had worded it better. I can't edit or delete that post now.
My point is, uber bears lose respect and they get ignored when they constantly predict bankruptcy with chants of 'Elon is scamster, Tesla is a ponzi scheme' for every little hiccup Tesla goes thru. The same is true for uber bulls too when they go wildly optimistic - BMW will go bankrupt, TSLA will hit $1000 in 2019 or 50M cars a year in 5 years. They run the risk of getting ignored with even among other bulls.
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ValueAnalyst
Closed
I’m perfectly fine with that risk. I’m not here to gain anyone’s appreciation or build a following; just looking to solicit *thoughtful* feedback and have adult discussions so that I can fine-tune my investment thesis and strategy.
Also, I did not predict “50M cars a year in five years,” nor did I predict 2/3rds of market by 2025. Again, let’s please pay enough attention to at least fully understand each other’s position before proceeding with an adult discussion. This is proving exceedingly difficult for some reason.
With my personal hat on, I read the original posting that @ValueAnalyst referred to as "ad hominem" as a compliment! I thought @Electroman was showing respect, that it came from someone whose opinion he (often or sometimes) believes. That doesn't mean that he has to agree all the time, or that he can't civilly discuss it.
Mod: I think no action is necessary if people just keep their cool. --ggr.
Mod: I think no action is necessary if people just keep their cool. --ggr.
I think they can count on 10,000 per week demand for Model 3, worldwide, for several years; probably not forever but well into 2022.
I think the only way they can be confident of demand at tat level is exporting to China. But I don't know what demand will be in China after the tariff is added.
BMW 3 series sales in China have strong growth, but they make the long version for that market.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Ok. Pulling my disagrees.
I'm not sure if this thread is only for predictions or also for accompanying discussion, but the following are my thoughts:
50 million annualized units by 2025 is my prediction.
Since Tesla's are so much better than existing options, the replacement cycle will accelerate in the coming years, so even though 90+ million vehicles are sold annually in the world today, which was already expected to increase to 115 million vehicles by 2024, the market may expand beyond anyone's imagination in the coming years.
On the other hand, FSD ridesharing adoption will likely play a role in reducing auto ownership than what it would be otherwise.
It's impossible to know this many years ahead of time how all factors will eventually play out, but it's unlikely that Tesla's 50 million annualized units will comprise majority market share in 2025.
What are your thoughts?
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dhrivnak
Active Member
Nowhere near as bullish. As a Tesla investor and owner for over 7 years now I really believe in Tesla but 50m cars a year by 2025 is crazy. They have been working like mad for 13 years just to ramp to 200,000. They do not have the capital the plants or the workers to grow that fast. This is a capital intensive business not a software company.
Even if you assume a crazy growth rate of 50% a year. Far higher than ANY manufacturing company they will be at an impressive but far lower 3.4m per year.
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I think Tesla can achieve 100% unit growth in cars for a few years, but it becomes a step function as factory capacity is reached. The temporary GA building at Fremont and the layoffs are clear indications of stressors that impact growth. Although I think most of the layoffs are Solar City which Musk wants to mask due to the self serving nature of that purchase.
I assume the China factory will be announced as a joint venture or with some other sort of attached funding. I'm sure it will be announced as having a million plus capacity capability. I'm also sure that they won't actually make the investment to do that volume until the mass market for EV is proven.
The gigafactory battery pack plus electronics module is wonderfully suited for export so that new foreign factories can first focus resources on manufacturing the glider.
Make your mind up
Some simple economics
You're predicting exponential growth in annual production volume but the infrastructure will need even faster growth as it needs to support the rolling production of approx 4-5 years, all those cars will need servicing, warranty work etc. So the scale out of the super chargers, service centres, rangers, parts distribution, all things that are struggling now will need to grow even faster than any fantasy production growth.
We also need to accelerate the shift to EV faster than any other prediction.
My prediction - if Tesla are making 1 million cars a year in 2015 I will be amazed.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
I don’t think we are communicating well. Let’s try again another day.
I would be too. And Elon too. After all it is only 3 years in the past. They can make it
I know you meant to say 2025, and I agree. Growing to 1M in 7 years is phenomenal.
Phenomenally bad, given that by their current projections, multiply by 2 for Elon time, add one, they should be at 1M per year at worst by 2023.I would be too. And Elon too. After all it is only 3 years in the past. They can make it
I know you meant to say 2025, and I agree. Growing to 1M in 7 years is phenomenal.
dc_h
Active Member
dc_h
Active Member
I think it will become less common for younger people to own cars in urban and dense suburban areas. This especially true in emerging markets. Mega cities like Lagos, Mexico City, shanghai and Beijing as well as New York will be too expensive to own when there is increasingly inexpensive ride sharing options. Automated driving and boring tunnels will improve transport and increase density. Many will still own cars, my born in the 60’s people are generally going to want a car. Anyhow, car market may grow, but it will retreat in many areas.
I don’t think it will make sense for Tesla to grow past 10 million cars. I’m no Elon so who knows.
Really? There is a lot of world out there. If China locks them out, there's always India. South America. Tesla's got a lot of countries where it hasn't expanded much.
If someone makes a wild prediction, expect some push back. But there is a difference between vigorously debating an idea and personally attacking the person making it. As someone who has tossed out a few unpopular ideas in my time, I've been on the receiving end of both.
I don't know if it was in this thread or another one I laid out why I think predicting any car maker could ever make more than about 10 million cars a year is highly unlikely. Worldwide EV production may reach around 10 million a year by 2025 if everyone talking about mass producing batteries gets serious about doing it, but not all those cars will be made by Tesla. It would take a mobilization effort akin to the mobilization of major powers in WW II to get battery production up to a level that could support 50 million cars a year by 2025.
In any case extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof. If you can make a goo case for how Tesla could manage to overcome the numerous logistical hurdles to get to 50 million cars a year, I'll listen, but so far all I've seen is just an assertion which I can't see happening from what I know about logistics.
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