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Prediction Thread - "You Called It"
- Thread starter Crowded Mind
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- TSLA
I predict the Next Gen Roadster will sell all they can produce, even at 20k/year production. The P100D/Roadster price difference is $140-150k/$200k which is relatively close and will make many stretch for the ultimate performance car. The Tesla margin for the Roadster could be high too.
omgwtfbyobbq
Active Member
FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
I suspect this is correct. They may be able to prevent jackknifing... but some of the time they'll just turn it into a rollover sliding across both lanes of the highway, which is slightly better I guess? But not much.
Two new predictions:
- Tesla will deliver 32,780 cars in Q4 2017.
- The Model 3 Performance version will start at $74,500 before options.
@Crowded Mind, I have now added a new tab to the spreadsheet. I'm not sure about the tab names. You could change them if you can think of something better. My quarterly delivery estimate was too optimistic this time. Need to work on that. Here are two more predictions:
- Model 3 Performance version will have 3.1s 0-60 as advertised on the Tesla website.
- Model 3 Dual Motor option will cost $4,500 unless it's bundled with Smart Air Suspension. In that case, the bundle will cost $6,500.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
omgwtfbyobbq
Active Member
Tesla's going to "focus on quality and efficiency rather than simply pushing for the highest possible volume in the shortest period of time" so they can hit 200k US sales in early Q2, rather than risk hitting it sometime in Q1. I'm thinking that'll be 20-30k Model S/X sales and 20-30k Model 3 sales over the first two quarters of 2018. They may even build up a small stockpile of cars for delivery in early Q2.
Mod: edited OBO author. --ggr
Mod: edited OBO author. --ggr
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FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
Close, but no ... Tesla says Model 3 production rate at ‘over 1,000 per week’ and breaks quarterly delivery record with 29,870 vehicles
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Tesla released their fourth quarter and full year 2017 delivery and production results today after market close. As expected, Tesla achieved record deliveries of 29,870 vehicles, but all eyes are on Model 3, which accounted for 1,550 units of the total. As for production, the company says that it achieved a production rate in the last few days of 2017 that translates to “over 1,000 Model 3’s per week.”
Tesla delivered 47,077 vehicles in the first half of 2017, 26,150 vehicles in Q3, and now this new record in Q4, Tesla has now delivered over 100,000 vehicles in 2017. In its third quarter shareholder letter, Tesla already announced that they expected “an all-time record for deliveries of Model S and Model X vehicles in Q4” and they delivered on the expectation.
They ended up delivering 15,200 Model S vehicles and 13,120 Model X vehicles. Additionally, 2,520 Model S and X vehicles and 860 Model 3 vehicles were in transit to customers at the end of the quarter, according to the company. Here are Tesla quarterly global deliveries of all current vehicles in production since their launches:
TaoJones
Beyond Driven
Missed the overall Q4 number by 131 (predicted 30,001). I bet they would have made it with better weather 
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I won't predict it but will be disappointed if they hit domestic 200K before Day 1 of Q3. That may take larger hoops than through which they're willing to jump, of course.
I am reminded of Elon's lament that in some cases, it's not the greatest thing to be a publicly-held company.
Whether Day 1 of Q2 or Day 1 of Q3, the Day 1 part is probably more relevant to maximize what would be a full half year of unfettered production. But then is it realistic to expect all domestic units thereduring? Quite probably not. Although one wonders how it will all play out.
Great question for an earnings call. Feel no pressure.
.I won't predict it but will be disappointed if they hit domestic 200K before Day 1 of Q3. That may take larger hoops than through which they're willing to jump, of course.
I am reminded of Elon's lament that in some cases, it's not the greatest thing to be a publicly-held company.
Whether Day 1 of Q2 or Day 1 of Q3, the Day 1 part is probably more relevant to maximize what would be a full half year of unfettered production. But then is it realistic to expect all domestic units thereduring? Quite probably not. Although one wonders how it will all play out.
Great question for an earnings call. Feel no pressure.
omgwtfbyobbq
Active Member
Ugh, I'm just going to quote myself instead of asking for another mod update of my first post. Anyhow, I'm backtracking from my backtrack.
My prediction is Tesla will hit 200k US sales in early Q3 of this year. Insideevs has their total US sales, including the Roadster, at 161571 as of 2018. Their total sales for the Model S/X in the first two quarters of 2017 were about 21k vehicles, which would allow them to sell ~17.5k Model 3s before they hit the 200k limit.
That also works out to about 3k Model 3s per month, which lines up with their ~1k/week estimate of their current production capacity. If they sell fewer S/Xs, they can ramp a bit to sell more 3s. I imagine they'll still be working on expanding the production line to hit 5k cars/week, maybe even building out the second 5k/week line if they have the capital, but even if it can hit 5k+/week, I don't think they'll bring it fully online until after they hit 200k US sales. They may also stockpile some Model S/3/Xs to sell once they hit 200k vehicles.
- I predict that by 10 Feb 2018 Tesla will either make the Model 3 SR available in the configurator or they will make the AWD available or they will send out the first batch of invites to non-owners.
dhrivnak
Active Member
While I hope you are right remember Tesla only sold 2500 gen 1 Roadsters which at it time was and still is an impressive performance car.
omgwtfbyobbq
Active Member
I think Tesla will improve the automation of Model S/X production and unveil the refreshed Model S/X within 6 months of hitting their 200,000th US delivery. TBH, this is more wishful thinking than anything else, but hey.
sundaymorning
Active Member
I think they don’t refresh until 10k per week steady clip. 5k per week by August/Sept. stock price $500, summer of next year $1000.
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