Preorders approaching 400,000

[voltage]

O’Connell now says that “something approaching 400,000 people” have already reserved the vehicle.

Tesla Vice President says Model 3 reservations are ‘approaching 400,000’, real success will be delivery

 

[ikjadoon]

Yup. Tesla will need to keep these reservation holders enticed. 18 months is a long time and 400,000 people will get a little antsy as Chevy releases 3 iterations of the Bolt by the time Model 3 production rate maxes out (2016, 2017, and likely 2018 Bolt).

This is incredibly exciting. Tesla is doing it. The electric car has come back. I hope whoever made that "Who Killed the Electric Car?" documentary is all over the Fremont offices these days. It's gotta be crazy.

 

[Wolfsburg]

That is awesome. I hope they can be delivered in a timely fashion!

 

[Garlan Garner]

That is awesome. I hope they can be delivered in a timely fashion!

Ditto.

 

[Skotty]

Yup. Tesla will need to keep these reservation holders enticed. 18 months is a long time and 400,000 people will get a little antsy as Chevy releases 3 iterations of the Bolt by the time Model 3 production rate maxes out (2016, 2017, and likely 2018 Bolt).

This is incredibly exciting. Tesla is doing it. The electric car has come back. I hope whoever made that "Who Killed the Electric Car?" documentary is all over the Fremont offices these days. It's gotta be crazy.

I emailed the producer awhile back about whether they would make another documentary in the series (Who Killed the Electric Car? in 2006 and Revenge of the Electric Car in 2011) but haven't gotten a response yet. However, I saw an article somewhere that said they were working on another. Unfortunately (at least for me), the article suggested the next installment may be more about car sharing and e-bikes than electric cars, which I think would be far less interesting and could possibly start to marginalize the importance of the electric car revolution that is at such a critical point in history.

It is kind of fun to go back and watch the older documentaries now and see things like the Jalopnik guy saying the Model S is total vaporware.

 

[ikjadoon]

Oh, wow, that's great initiative. I hadn't even thought of that.

Ugh. Yeah, sure, but ride-sharing has been a thing for a while. E-bikes: that's somewhat interesting. But, man, these pre-orders feel like the "Return of The King" trilogy...shucks. It's ripe for a documentary....

 

[StraightDave]

How many M3s is Tesla supposed to produce a year? A 100,000 M3S a year means these people in the 400s won't see their car until 2022. Who is going to wait four years to get a car? I was a day one reservation and I'm giving Tesla until end of 2018 then I'm dumping the reservation. I simply can't wait three to fours years for a car and by then there probably will be something better.

 

[JohnSnowNW]

18 months is a long time and 400,000 people will get a little antsy as Chevy releases 3 iterations of the Bolt by the time Model 3 production rate maxes out (2016, 2017, and likely 2018 Bolt).

You are more optimistic than I am.

 

[JohnSnowNW]

How many M3s is Tesla supposed to produce a year? A 100,000 M3S a year means these people in the 400s won't see their car until 2022. Who is going to wait four years to get a car? I was a day one reservation and I'm giving Tesla until end of 2018 then I'm dumping the reservation. I simply can't wait three to fours years for a car and by then there probably will be something better.

No one knows for sure, but considering they expect to be producing 500k vehicles by 2020, I'd assume everyone who has made a reservation by the end of this month will see their car before the end of 2019.

 

[ikjadoon]

You are more optimistic than I am.

Wait, what do you mean? You think many will cancel?

 

[JohnSnowNW]

Wait, what do you mean? You think many will cancel?

No, that the Bolt will have more than 1 iteration before the end of 2017.

 

[Subhuman]

I emailed the producer awhile back about whether they would make another documentary in the series (Who Killed the Electric Car? in 2006 and Revenge of the Electric Car in 2011) but haven't gotten a response yet. However, I saw an article somewhere that said they were working on another. Unfortunately (at least for me), the article suggested the next installment may be more about car sharing and e-bikes than electric cars, which I think would be far less interesting and could possibly start to marginalize the importance of the electric car revolution that is at such a critical point in history.

It is kind of fun to go back and watch the older documentaries now and see things like the Jalopnik guy saying the Model S is total vaporware.

Here is a link to the an article about the sequel

Chris Paine is making another sequel to ‘Who Killed the Electric Car?’

 

[ikjadoon]

No, that the Bolt will have more than 1 iteration before the end of 2017.

Ohhh, haha. I would think after the massive pre-orders, that would be Chevy's only hope: get the Bolt out now, collect feedback like mad, and iterate.

 

[JohnSnowNW]

Ohhh, haha. I would think after the massive pre-orders, that would be Chevy's only hope: get the Bolt out now, collect feedback like mad, and iterate.

I don't think Chevy actually wants to compete with the Model 3. I also don't think they'll produce 30k of them before mid-2017. If the Bolt really takes off maybe that will change, but my personal opinion is that the Volt is a much more practical vehicle. I know there are people completely averse to ICE, but they make up a very small proportion of the population.

 

[Topher]

I don't think Chevy actually wants to compete with the Model 3. I also don't think they'll produce 30k of them before mid-2017.

I think this says more about Chevy than it does about electric cars. I have seen a couple of "Bolt is better than Model ≡" pieces, so maybe they are putting an effort into propaganda.

If the Bolt really takes off maybe that will change, but my personal opinion is that the Volt is a much more practical vehicle.

The Volt didn't exactly fly off the shelves in 2015. 15,232 sales in the US, I bet there were more Model ≡ pre-sales just while Elon was talking.
The Volt is a nice car, it just needs a better parent.

Thank you kindly.

 

[JohnSnowNW]

The Volt didn't exactly fly off the shelves in 2015. 15,232 sales in the US, I bet there were more Model ≡ pre-sales just while Elon was talking.
The Volt is a nice car, it just needs a better parent.

Thank you kindly.

This is what I'm saying, the Volt is arguably a better deal for the average person interested in driving mostly on electrons...and it isn't selling that well. Even when the reviews on the vehicle are really positive. IMHO, it doesn't lend much credence to the vehicle being a Model 3 competitor.

 

[ElectricTundra]

What ICE cars are comparable to the Volt in terms of size, capacity, fit & finish, level of luxury, etc? What then is the 'EV' premium that someone has to pay for the EV aspects of a Volt?

 

[Az_Rael]

This is what I'm saying, the Volt is arguably a better deal for the average person interested in driving mostly on electrons...and it isn't selling that well. Even when the reviews on the vehicle are really positive. IMHO, it doesn't lend much credence to the vehicle being a Model 3 competitor.

GM is entirely to blame with the Volt's lack of sales. It almost sells despite them. They didn't market it, most dealers ignored it, etc. Even today I encounter people who have no idea what the Volt is - most think its a regular hybrid, or they think its a Spark EV with only 40 miles battery.

And I agree, I don't think GM is interested in competing with the Model 3. I do hope, however, that the sheer number of pre-orders wakes them up and makes them re-think their Bolt and 2nd gen Volt marketing plans. Make them realize there IS a sizeable market out there wanting to go EV.

 

[eloder]

No, that the Bolt will have more than 1 iteration before the end of 2017.

Will any of those iterations magically cause a nationwide charging network to suddenly appear out of thin air?

Nothing at all to worry about. Tesla has a true monopoly with the Model 3 for N+2-3 years, where N equals however many years another provider takes before committing to a strong, nationwide charging network.

 

[JohnSnowNW]

Will any of those iterations magically cause a nationwide charging network to suddenly appear out of thin air?

Nothing at all to worry about. Tesla has a true monopoly with the Model 3 for N+2-3 years, where N equals however many years another provider takes before committing to a strong, nationwide charging network.

This is another issue, yes. Even if we assume that the Bolt sells 50,000 vehicles by the end of 2017 is that enough incentive for the private companies installing CCS to build out a strategic charging network within a reasonable amount of time?

IMHO, the answer is absolutely not.